Sunday Polls

I’m about to head up to Birmingham, so won’t necessarily be around much for the next few days (not least, when Lord Ashcroft releases his latest marginal poll at 2pm today I’ll be on a train!), but here’s a quick summary of today’s other polls.

ComRes in the Independent on Sunday have topline figures of CON 29%(-3), LAB 35%(+1), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 19%(+1). Changes are from their previous online poll a month ago. Tabs are here.

Opinium for the Observer have toplines of CON 32%(+3), LAB 34%(-3), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 17%(-2). Changes are from a fortnight ago.

Finally the weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has toplines of CON 31%, LAB 36%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%. While some other pollsters have already shown the Greens in fourth place, this is the first time that YouGov have shown them catching the Liberal Democrats. Tabs are here.

There is no obvious impact in the polls from the Labour party conference – ComRes have their lead up, Opinium down, YouGov not far from their recent average. In YouGov’s survey they asked if Labour’s conference made people more or less positive about Ed Miliband – 13% said more positive, 15% more negative, 54% unchanged.

YouGov also had several questions on Iraq, showing majority support for British airstrikes against ISIS (58% support for attacks in Iraq, 53% for attacks in Syria) but continuing opposition to putting ground troops back into Iraq (26% approve, 53% disapprove). YouGov also asked about whether Britain should co-operate with Assad or Iran in fighting ISIS. People are evenly split over Assad – 36% think we should co-operate with the regime, 34% that we should not. With Iran people are far more supportive of co-operation – 54% of people think that we should co-operate with Iran, 18% are opposed.

857 Responses to “Sunday Polls”

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  1. @JACK R – Ed Milliband?

  2. @JM – would that be considered a coup? Maybe for Labour ;)

  3. Here is some encouragement for Pressman. I have been an active member of Ukip since 1996 but will probably vote Conservative at the GE. I joined Ukip to help extract the UK from the EU, not to create an all new party. The Ukip strategy of (1) showing voters the dangers of membership of EU and benefits of leaving, and (2) making life difficult for Conservative leadership and forcing a conversion to Euroscepticism has been successful. Now is the time to consolidate and back a referendum in 2017.

    I seem to be a lone voice amongst my active Ukip friends but my friends who have occasionally voted Ukip in Euro and local elections are wavering.

    How typical this is I have no idea.

  4. Are we honestly to believe this string of terrible polling figures for the LibDems nationally and Ashcroft’s polling in the constituencies?

    I honestly thought we’d begin to see a recovery in their polling by now – but I accept UKIP has thrown everything up into the air.

  5. @MrNameless

    I don’t think that Hattersley has moved leftwards. He has remained the same but the Labour party moved sharply right under Blair.

    I suppose that he supported Ed Miliband because, unlike his brother, Ed did not want to take the Labour party even further to the right.

  6. “I remember Hong Kong, though to be fair there was a treaty obligation to return the new territories after the expiry of the 100 year lease.”

    I wasn’t being entirely serious but apparently the Chinese hadn’t been expecting to be offered Hong Kong itself, which had been ceded (under duress, of course) in perpetuity.

    “But the other two have me stumped”

    In what way? She hosted the Lancaster House talks which gave Rhodesia independence (one of her better achievements and I wouldn’t blame her for what followed) and the incompetence of her government prompted the seizure of the Falklands by Argentina (for which I would blame her).

  7. @Jack R

    “Any ideas?” – 258 of them…let’s guess at Diane Abbott, Sadiq Khan or David Lammy.

    Serious guess? Kelvin Hopkins.

  8. Blair backs Miliband against rightwingers in the party who want a tougher line on immigration and the EU:

    “You know, people in Ukip always say that the other politicians don’t get it. I mean, I do get it and I get them.
    You look a little bit beneath that Ukip facade and you see something in my view pretty nasty and unpleasant… confront them, expose them and take them on.”

    Where Miliband ends up on the spectrum relative to Blair would depend upon achievements in office… have to say it’s funny how some have adopted John Smith as one of their own – a leftwinger he wasn’t.

    Neither was Roy Jenkins a Tory going by his time as Home Secretary, plus he raised taxes by more than twice the amount of any previous budget when Chancellor. Ted Heath wasn’t a socialist either.

  9. Tony C

    The electorate doesn’t share the Euro obsession that some of us have. I personally don’t believe Cameron will deliver on a referendum; I certainly don’t believe he would honour an out vote.

  10. I take back what I said about the Ashcroft marginals polling at the start of this thread.

    Finally got Simon Hughes constituency with 3 weighted votes putting him ahead of Labour plus a lot of variation in the Tory LD marginals.

    Interesting thing with Bermondsey was how strongly Labour were ahead there until the current MP (doesn’t appear to have been named) was brought up in the “thinking about your constituency” question. Even then he only came through after weighting- too close to call in my humble opinion and certainly well within MOE/weighting error.

    I am very disappointed in you and I think you have undermined your pro Tory stance. Whatever people may think about Cameron, he is an honourable man and if the people say out then out it is. He will, on the other hand, campaign to stay in if given the chance and would certainly resign if he lost.

  12. As I’ve said RMJ we will campaign for a Tory win but Cameron is from the Clarke/Heseltine wing of the party and I personally wouldn’t trust him an inch on the EU issue.

  13. JACK R

    “Rod Liddle in the Times today said that Farage hinted a ‘senior Labour MP’ would be defecting shortly. NF didn’t say who exactly, but Liddle said that if he was reading Farage right, the name would be quite a coup for UKIP.
    Any ideas?”

    My sources tell me Rushanara Ali will join UKIP.

  14. Harriet Harman.

  15. @RMJ1

    I agree with you. Whatever his faults, I think Cameron has that old-fashioned sense of honour and in the unlikely even he has the opportunity he will hold a referendum, argue passionately for In, and respect the outcome. Whether he’d resign after an Out vote, I don’t know.

    Those T-shirts – the Tories always like a uniform and a tatty 1994 T-shirt is their idea of a yoof uniform.

  16. “SNP membership is now over 70,000. That’s nearly 1 in every 50 voters in Scotland SNP members. Absolutely phenomenal! ?#?SNP?

  17. Lovely quote I think.

    “Europe captain Paul McGinley: “We lift this trophy not just on behalf of the players but also on behalf of every one of the people in the continent – all languages, cultures and religions. I’m sure that everyone is proud to stand behind these players. “

  18. @Guymonde

    It seems to me that Cameron and his wife still live in a sort of Downton Abbey world and are nostalgic of British imperial era values. Of course, a strong sense of honour is a hallmark of the upper classes of that period.

  19. @ John Murphy

    Not sure that the Ashcroft marginal polling was THAT bad for the LD’s. They seemed to be in with a shout in a lot of the LD-Con marginals that should have been out of sight on a UNS.

    40 seats their absolute best hope I think and likely to do much worse but still a chance of holding 40.

    However is anyone still of the opinion they will get 15% share of vote overall? I expect 10% or thereabouts as maximum now. Quite a lot of the former LD don’t knows who were propping up their vote share with people like ICM seem to have decided on the Greens now.

  20. @MBRUNO

    I couldn’t have put it better myself

  21. John Murphy,
    You are awful,swings handbag,but I like you.

  22. @RMJ1

    “Cameron, he is an honourable man ”

    That’s your opinion. But let’s not start an argument about DC’s character. For many of us it’s quite enough that he’s a Tory.

  23. Cameron and honour,he is a PR man to his fingertips.Go consider.

  24. Well, Farage was at The Crown, Rochester High Street this lunchtime for an obligatory pint in the candidate’s local bar photo opp.

    Pity… don’t suppose Chris Bryant would think of defecting?

  25. Robin
    For some of us it’s quite enough that he isn’t!

  26. @ Howard,

    Sorry for the jargon! SCG is the Socialist Campaign Group, Abbot, McDonnell and Skinner’s crowd.

    I have to say, it’s hard to see any Labour MP jumping ship to Ukip. The Eurosceptic Labourites are all very leftwing and would be repulsed by Ukip’s Thatcherite economic policies, and the neoliberals who might like the proposals for lowering taxes and getting rid of employment rights are all rabid Europhiles.

  27. There won’t be an out vote. In the unlikely event of an in/out referendum the vote will be to stay in.

  28. @Robin

    Perhaps channeling Antony: But Cameron says he was ambitious, and Cameron is an honourable man…

  29. Maybe there’s a hidden Eurosceptic Labour MP that has centric values, and could therefore be swayed to Ukip?

  30. @Jack R

    You’ve just described what many people here have been insisting is what Ed M *has* to become to win the next election. Therefore why not take the logical step, to win the next election, Ed M *has* to defect to UKIP!

  31. @ Jack R,

    Gisela Stuart?

  32. I dont remember British polotics ever being in such a state of flux. Salmond has thrown a delayed action grenade into the HOC and all three parties seem to be hoping it blows up on one of the others. Farage has gone one better and fired a double bazooka at the Tories landing a direct hit. All three parties are now wondering if any more are planning to defect and if so where from. Rash new promises are now in abundance but like many onlookers I fear they are simply made up of spin fed by panic.
    I find it all very amusing, dont you?

  33. It is amusing. It’s about time they were all running scared of the electorate.

  34. Effin hilarious.

    @Pete B

    Couldn’t have put it better myself.

  35. Pressman – “As I’ve said RMJ we will campaign for a Tory win but Cameron is from the Clarke/Heseltine wing of the party and I personally wouldn’t trust him an inch on the EU issue.”

    I really like Kenneth Clarke.

    One of my favourite alternative histories goes something like this:

    Kenneth Clarke is elected Tory leader after 2001 instead of IDS. We know he voted against the Iraq war – as leader he would have led his whole party into the No lobby. Together with all the Labour rebels, they would have defeated the motion.

    Tony Blair would have resigned. Gordon Brown would have taken over long before he got burnt out. Without the burden of the Iraq war, the public finances would probably not have gone bad so fast (war is super expensive, which is why people serious about deficits etc should stay out of them).

    The 2005 election would have been close – a lot of the anti-Iraq crowd would have given Ken Clarke credit for not going in – and by then people would have seen what a mess Bush had made of it and would be even more grateful to Clarke and would go Tory and not LibDem. So it’s likely Clarke would have won a small majority.

    Feel free to poke holes in the above scenario!

  36. Well,I suppose everything is amusing if you see humanity and everything it has
    achieved as a waste of time.A bit like those amoral Greek Gods.However back
    in the real world I think Farage is raising the likelihood of a Labour defection as
    A way of frightening the horses.He did it when Carswell defected.Surely if he had one it would have been announced before the Labour Conference.IMHO.

  37. Loathe the Mirror. The MP was a fool, but I detest honey traps.

  38. @Statgeek

    I can say with absolute certainty that the last person to defect to Ukip would be Kelvin Hopkins MP.

  39. Candy

    Clarke is the most hated figure within the Conservative press. He wouldn’t have been allowed to win a coin toss.

  40. Ann in Wales
    If I had no sense of humor, I would long ago have committed suicide. – Gandhi

  41. @MBRUNO

    ‘It seems to me that Cameron and his wife still live in a sort of Downton Abbey world and are nostalgic of British imperial era values. Of course, a strong sense of honour is a hallmark of the upper classes of that period.’

    IIRC Cameron wants ex-PMs to be made Earls … very Downton

  42. @syzygy

    Fairy nuff. I picked him, based on a few criteria:

    Keen to leave EU
    Party rebel

    “The man wants extremely hgih rates of income tax as high as 70% on those who don’t even pay the highest rate of income tax. He said that he was even in favour of a 98% tax on millionaires. He is bonkers”

    “That being said, Hopkins is a nice man even if he is a nutter.”

    He sounded like a prime UKIP candidate. :))

  43. Pressman – “Clarke is the most hated figure within the Conservative press. He wouldn’t have been allowed to win a coin toss.”

    So the press is responsible for a) the Tories not winning a majority for 22 years and b) our embroilment in the Iraq war?

    See what damage you’ve done? Shouldn’t you retire from this interfering-in-politics business?

  44. [pedant mode ON]


    “…But Cameron says he was ambitious, and Cameron is an honourable man…”

    The “he” in the quote is a reference to a third person, not to the person named in the first part of the sentence: the “he” and the named person are not the same person.

    If you are speaking of Cameron’s ambition or honour, it would have to be along the lines of “…But Cameron says he was ambitious, and Cameron is an honourable man…” for the reference to take hold

    [pedant mode OFF]

    [1] Julius Caesar, act 3, scene 2: “When that the poor have cried, Caesar hath wept. Ambition should be made of sterner stuff. Yet Brutus says he [Caesar] was ambitious, And Brutus is an honorable man.”

  45. @Rich

    If anyone (especially someone in a position of being an MP and Minister) has such poor judgement as was demonstrated, they should not be in such a job.

    What on earth was he thinking for goodness sake?

    (well don’t answer that…)

  46. @Spearmint

    I agree Gisela Stuart is the only viable candidate that I can see.

  47. Sorry, that should have been “along the lines of ‘…But X says he was ambitious, and X is an honourable man…’, (where X is not Cameron) for the reference to take hold.”

    Please feel free to laugh at my unforced error.

  48. @syzygy

    “IIRC Cameron wants ex-PMs to be made Earls … very Downton”

    Countess Cherie Blair? God no! Anyway, I always thought she was an anti-monarchist.

    It might work, but the lead singer of Hot Chocolate and the Right Honourable member for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath will clash at events. Ha! :))

  49. @Rich

    The ability of our newspapers to uncover things about our MPs of no public interest whatsoever is not in question.

  50. Catmanjeff – “What on earth was he thinking for goodness sake?”

    The reporter was posing as a Tory PR woman. People instinctively trust other members of their tribe. If she’d been merely a PR person (without the “Tory”) he’d have been warier. The same thing applies to Labourites trusting other Labour people and SNP people looking kindlier on other SNP people.

    That said – what with everyone spying on everyone else, I agree he should have thought twice. It could have been a Russian wanting to blackmail him.

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