Sunday Polls

I’m about to head up to Birmingham, so won’t necessarily be around much for the next few days (not least, when Lord Ashcroft releases his latest marginal poll at 2pm today I’ll be on a train!), but here’s a quick summary of today’s other polls.

ComRes in the Independent on Sunday have topline figures of CON 29%(-3), LAB 35%(+1), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 19%(+1). Changes are from their previous online poll a month ago. Tabs are here.

Opinium for the Observer have toplines of CON 32%(+3), LAB 34%(-3), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 17%(-2). Changes are from a fortnight ago.

Finally the weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has toplines of CON 31%, LAB 36%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%. While some other pollsters have already shown the Greens in fourth place, this is the first time that YouGov have shown them catching the Liberal Democrats. Tabs are here.

There is no obvious impact in the polls from the Labour party conference – ComRes have their lead up, Opinium down, YouGov not far from their recent average. In YouGov’s survey they asked if Labour’s conference made people more or less positive about Ed Miliband – 13% said more positive, 15% more negative, 54% unchanged.

YouGov also had several questions on Iraq, showing majority support for British airstrikes against ISIS (58% support for attacks in Iraq, 53% for attacks in Syria) but continuing opposition to putting ground troops back into Iraq (26% approve, 53% disapprove). YouGov also asked about whether Britain should co-operate with Assad or Iran in fighting ISIS. People are evenly split over Assad – 36% think we should co-operate with the regime, 34% that we should not. With Iran people are far more supportive of co-operation – 54% of people think that we should co-operate with Iran, 18% are opposed.


857 Responses to “Sunday Polls”

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  1. @howard

    Thanks.

    Here’s one (about a year out of date) that mentions the median wealth thingy (make of it what you will):

    h
    ttp://www.middleclasspoliticaleconomist.com/2013/10/median-wealth-increases-but-us-still.html

  2. Pressman,
    I see,I think.So the wishes of RM are paramount.Hmm.He is an old man and
    presumably cannot go on forever.

  3. Interesting. Watching Nick Robinson give Cameron an unexpectedly (for him) hard time about cutting benefits for the working poor by abput £500 per annum while there are people at the conference who would spend that on dinner. Very pointed. Something has turned in this Tory conference. I really don’t know what Crosby’s brief truly is, but promising pain and pain again isn’t going to work. Barring a Labour snafu (and how likely is that … ;) ) I don’t see Con polling above 31 next year.

  4. Pressman trusts the British people.

    Great.

    In that case, please spare us eight more months of stories like last week’s ‘Boo hoo, EM refuses to wear our charity bracelet despite us threatening him.’ That was poor, and made you look like idiots. The Mirror scooped you at the weekend with the sexting story too.

    Perhaps you should concentrate on what you’re there for, ie. providing football coverage and celeb gossip for people without internet.

    It’s not within News UK’s gift to determine the next British government. Who knows or cares what goes on behind those paywalls anyway?

  5. In all seriousness, I am interested in what Clegg will say – his performance in the last seven months of the Parliament may affect how the Red Dems and Lime Greens act in May, which may in turn affect the composition of parliament after the election.

  6. @Pressman

    Any analysis of 1992 must factor in the fact that polling methodology was systematically duff, therefore comparing the actual result with polls must logically be duff.

    If anyone wants to pin their hopes on that election, good luck.

  7. @ Alan,

    Redcar: 45% -> 18%, according to Ashcroft’s polling.

    It really depends which party they’re facing, but Plaid are actually ideally placed to pick up their vote: not Tories, not Labour, not Westminster, green, leftish and localist.

    It’s a measure of Plaid’s weakness that this hasn’t happened all over Wales, but it seems possible in a marginal.

  8. @”the single most charming and engaging politician of the last 50 years”

    Clinton?

    It is truly amazing how differently a given politician is perceived by different people.

  9. Interesting that the news highlights Tory criticism of May’s proposed new police and security powers.

  10. @Ewen,

    I enjoyed both, but I was glad I read the book first. The film is slick and absorbing, and Travolta is great casting. But there’s a reason Joe Klein wrote that book, and a reason he didn’t want to put his name to it. The book gives you a better sense of the sheer sense of disappointment that motivated him to put fingers to typewriter in the first place. And not just in the man, but in the lack of principle that underpins the political system, even on the left.

  11. @Ann

    I see,I think.So the wishes of RM are paramount.Hmm.He is an old man and
    presumably cannot go on forever.

    Have you seen the Simpsons episode, when Mr Burns is cryogenically frozen, and brought out of the freezer when required?

    There are similarities…..

  12. ”the single most charming and engaging politician of the last 50 years”

    Much as I dislike everything he stood for I suspect that accolade could as well go to Reagan.

  13. @Colin,

    Trust me, I’m no fan of the man. But Clinton was famous for connecting with people. Miliband isn’t. I don’t really mean “charming” as a compliment. Cameron has a bit of the Clinton charm I think, although an order of magnitude less.

  14. @ Matthew,

    The Mirror scooped you at the weekend with the sexting story too.

    Not really something for the Mirror to be proud of, to be honest.

    We might all have gone to our graves in blissful ignorance of Brooks Newmark’s pyjama fashion choices, but nooooo.

  15. Yes, I wonder if they’ve discovered the cure for seventeen stab wounds in the back yet?

    Now a prize for who can tell us which episode it was…

  16. @Spearmint

    It really depends which party they’re facing, but Plaid are actually ideally placed to pick up their vote: not Tories, not Labour, not Westminster, green, leftish and localist.

    I don’t think I’m the only Green to find the Welsh GP unattractive (the Pippa effect), and I think many of the votes that have gone Green in England would go to PC in Wales, given how highly Leanne Wood is considered among this part of the electorate.

  17. @RogerH / Colin,

    Have you ever seen that fly on the wall documentary of the George W Bush campaign, “Journeys with George”? It’s quite a revelation. The documentarian is an avowed opponent (in fact it’s Nancy Pelosi’s daughter). But there’s no doubting that Dubya comes across as a charming, self-effacing, funny and generous man. You can see her warming to him as the film progresses.

    You don’t have to like a person’s politics to like the person. I also happen to think that just because you like a person’s politics, it doesn’t mean you have to excuse their failings.

  18. Spearmint

    Redcar was an anomaly in 2010, reverting to status quo.

    I’m not saying it’s impossible for LD to lose ceredigion I just think odds on was a bit of an optimistic bet, and I’ll give anyone evens on a PC win there.

    If LDs take the sort of losses to lose ceredigion, they’ll be in the 0-5 seats range, not impossible but not an odds on bet.

  19. @muddy waters ?Morton’s fork and Maxwell’s Demon?

  20. @ADGE3

    “just when Cameron is delivering his speech”

    15 minutes before the end would be ideal – no time to redraft the autocue, and completely stealing its thunder.

  21. Tark

    That’s what I don’t understand. He sets up his strivers and shirkers narrative and then trashes it by shafting both of his stereotypes.

    Obviously I don’t like it as a person on the left, but I don’t think I’d like it if I were a Tory either.

  22. Regarding DC’s speech, er, hasn’t he given it yet then? I feel as though I’ve read it already in the ‘will say’ editions, as well as Robinson doing a sort of post speech interview.

    What with our colleague pressman, it’s like groundhog day around here sometimes.

  23. PRESSMAN

    “Like in 92, there are suspicions that the Tory leader is not cut from the Thatcherite cloth, but a PM such as Miliband (or Kinnock) is certainly not acceptable to RM, or I would imagine, the other press barons”
    _______

    I think the general public will be the ones who deicide who is acceptable or not and not some scrawny news paper editor or baron I would hope!!.

    I’m a EM critic and still hold the view the wrong Miliband got the job but that said I really would find it a difficult to comprehend if a party leader had his chances ruined because he was “not acceptable” to the RM.

    Eton educated…born with a silver spoon….boring estuary English accent…are they the acceptable ingredients for the RM?

  24. Any guesses on who the putative defector might be? People have been saying Hollobone, but I don’t think so- he’s in the Bone/Chope/Rees-Mogg/Davies/Nuttall clique and they seem to do everything as a group. I doubt any of them would go unless they all go together, like teenage girls going to the toilet.

  25. Catmanjeff

    You make me think of the preserved Nixon head in Futurama which is World President in the year 2999.

  26. @Neil A

    Journeys with George was more about the perils of the embedded press corps I thought.

    I could be wrong, but as I remember it, one of the early scenes was of GWB sauntering down the aisle of the plane, using his ‘charm’ to put the rookie reporter in her place… she was pretty much a spectator from then on.

  27. Charles

    No, Morton’s Demon: http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Morton%27s_demon

  28. #RM I though that meant “Rolling Media” but Rupert Murdoch I presume?

  29. Gordon Henderson?

  30. ComRes Poll for INDY Labour 35%, Tory 29%, UKIP, 13%, L-D 10%, Green 4%, SNP 4%.

  31. Billy Bob – Thanks for that.

    So Kinnock was negative (warnings, pain). And the other side was negative too. A war of the negatives and the incumbent negative message won.

    Blair was much more positive wasn’t he? Here’s his “Things can only get better” ad: Lots of smiley people, thumbs up, flowers, happiness, lots of sunshine and good weather!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmwqEg-06Ww

    A really positive ad, like something out of a Richard Curtis movie. No words or commentary, just positive images and music. I wasn’t eligible to vote in that election, but my mum was on cloud nine the day after!

    The conclusion must be that positive trumps negative every time.

    RogerH – that Independent newspaper link is interesting – people taking themselves off the register to avoid the poll tax! Disenfranchisement as a way for the other side to get elected – sounds like modern American politics!

  32. AW currently on Newsnight

  33. PRESSMAN
    “Like in 92, there are suspicions that the Tory leader is not cut from the Thatcherite cloth, but a PM such as Miliband (or Kinnock) is certainly not acceptable to RM, or I would imagine, the other press barons”

    Yeah but The Sun sold nigh on 4 million copies a day in ’92. It will be selling 1.8m next May. It was still selling close to 3 million in 2010 but the fall has been massive since.

    True all others are down like the Mirror, but The Sun has also destroyed its influence online to millions of readers by going behind a paywall which the others have not.

  34. Just watching AW on Newsnight.

  35. @Edward:

    From my link above re. 1992:

    “Among readers of pro-Tory tabloids, support for the Conservatives fell by three points during the election campaign, and it also fell by one point among readers of pro-Tory broadsheets.”

  36. @Catmanjeff

    The recent Ashcroft marginals polling confirmed once again that the LDs are far more vulnerable when their main opponents are Labour rather than the Conservatives. But I think it’s more general than that and comes down to 2010 LDs disillusioned with the LDs enabling role for the Conservatives in government. When in LD seats such people have the opportunity to vote for another party challenging to win – whether Lab, SNP or Plaid – and can put aside any fear of letting the Conservatives win the seat, then they will do so in droves.

    So that puts Plaid in line for a big swing in Ceredigion. It’s no surprise that Ladbrokes cut their odds there yesterday from 2/1 to 7/4 after Ashcroft’s polling.

    Personally, I would feel comfortable voting Plaid to oust a LD, given that Plaid define themselves as on the left and could generally be relied on to support a Labour-led coalition of the left in a hung parliament, something that can’t be said of the SNP.

  37. PRESSMAN

    “Maggie was bitterly disappointed in him, far more so then she ever let on in Statecraft.”

    So good to know that via you we have privileged access not only to the innermost thoughts of RM but those of MT too.
    I’m wondering if you are actually RM himself, given your unrivalled access.

  38. @Candy

    There are intangible qualities to leadership… making people feel good about themselves. The corollary is that bad leadership sows division and inevitably leads to unprovoked attacks on innocent people.

    This section of Clinton’s speech in Oklahoma (1995) was quickly sampled on a techno track:

    “The anger you feel is valid, but you must not allow yourselves to be consumed by it. The hurt you feel must not be allowed to turn into hate, but instead into the search for justice.”

  39. @Pressman – “Maggie was bitterly disappointed in him [John Major)…”

    Presumably this was because he failed to sign away half as many powers to Europeans she managed to with the Single European Act ?

  40. Neil A – “But there’s no doubting that Dubya comes across as a charming, self-effacing, funny and generous man. You can see her warming to him as the film progresses.”

    Dubya IS a very warm charming man. And I say that as someone for whom the Iraq war formed my politics.

    I think of him as a tragic figure – an artist type who was forced by family pressures to go into politics. And whose main mistakes were made because his inner self was rebelling against family – he appoints Rumsfeld and Cheyney knowing that his father hated both men. He’s persuaded by others that he doesn’t have enough experience and he should defer to them.

    It’s not until the voters deliver a severe rebuke in the 2006 congressional elections that he takes control of his own presidency and sacks Rumsfeld and ignores Cheney, and his presidency suddenly improves – but by this time he’s wasted six of his eight years. He was a non-racist in a party of racists (he made a point of mentioning he sang the anthem in Spanish to counter the anti-Mexican immigrant voices in his party) and his appointment of Powell and Rice paved the way for the public to accept Obama.

    He’s been classy in refusing to comment on his successor (and he pointedly didn’t participate in the 2012 election in favour of Romney).

    I think history will judge him as a basically decent man well out of his depth during a difficult period.

  41. Good overview, AW. Will you be keeping the big constituency map up on your wall? ;)

  42. @ Guymonde,

    I’m wondering if you are actually RM himself, given your unrivalled access.

    I doubt it- people who actually knew her never called her “Maggie”.

    @ Candy,

    Er… have you seen Bush’s paintings? Whatever else he is, an artist he is not!

  43. Guy Monde,
    How delightful to think that we may have old RM in our midst.I suppose he has
    To spend his evenings somehow and where better than on UKPR.LOL.

  44. On Bush Snr. vs. Clinton, I’d have to say that, as personalities, I prefer… Ross Perot. Maybe that’s just because he was an interesting case of a politician who spoke to the public as if they were adults rather than kids at a school assembly-

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mPIVI0CbCmg

  45. @Bill

    I’m quite taken with Jose Mujica:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-20243493

    “This austere lifestyle – and the fact that Mujica donates about 90% of his monthly salary, equivalent to $12,000 (£7,500), to charity – has led him to be labelled the poorest president in the world.”

    “He was shot six times and spent 14 years in jail. Most of his detention was spent in harsh conditions and isolation, until he was freed in 1985 when Uruguay returned to democracy.”

    “Mujica accuses most world leaders of having a “blind obsession to achieve growth with consumption, as if the contrary would mean the end of the world”. ”

    A Latin Mandela? From his wiki page:

    “In September 2013, Mujica addressed the United Nations General Assembly, with a very long discourse devoted to humanity and globalization. The speech called on the international community to strengthen efforts to preserve the planet for future generations and highlighted the power of the financial systems and the impact of economic fallout on ordinary people. He urged a return to simplicity, with lives founded on human relationships, love, friendship, adventure, solidarity and family, instead of lives shackled to the economy and the markets.”

    I can relate to that. What’s it all about without the values he lists?

  46. Statgeek,

    Sounds like a great local minister. I’m not sure any of it makes me more confident about him as a politician, and I admit to ignorance about the politics of Uruguay.

  47. Spearmint – “Er… have you seen Bush’s paintings? Whatever else he is, an artist he is not!”

    He portrayed Putin as two-faced – and that’s spot on! Giving asylum to Snowden (to embarrass Obama, not because he believes in whistle-blowing) while suppressing free-speech in Russia (anyone who whistle-blows in Russia gets a dose of polonium). I’m amazed at the number of foolish people who believe that Putin is a beacon of hope just because he selectively disagrees with the west.

  48. @Muddy Waters – Thank you. I stand corrected.

  49. Maybe I was wrong to suggest that Osborne’s speech might have been all about positioning prior to a future Conservative leadership contest.

    http://labourlist.org/2014/09/hes-blown-it-tory-mps-slam-painful-osborne-speech/

  50. I’m reading a lot of comparisons to 1992 here tonight. 1992 is a lousy comparator!

    Consider:
    Parliamentary position – (1992) 13-year tory government; (2015) 5-year tory government.
    Minor parties – (1992) collapsed LibDem and nationalist threat; (2015) rising LibDem and nationalist threat.
    PM – (1992) PM seen as “man of the people”; (2015) PM seen as distant and disengaged.
    Europe – (1992) peripheral election issue; (2015) significant election issue.
    Military/diplomatic – (1992) recent short and successful western intervention in Iraq (2015) ; recent long and failed western intervention in Iraq & Afghanistan.

    Set this against:
    Parliamentary position – (1974) 4-year tory government; (2015) 5-year tory government.
    Minor parties – (1974) rising LibDem and nationalist threat; (2015) rising LibDem and nationalist threat.
    PM – (1974) PM seen as distant and disengaged; (2015) PM seen as distant and disengaged.
    Europe – (1974) significant election issue; (2015) significant election issue.
    Military/diplomatic – (1974) recent long and problematic imperial disengagement, with ongoing stresses in Rhodesia; (2015) ; recent long and failed western intervention in Iraq & Afghanistan.

    I was wrong in 2010, when I predicted the coalition would implode after 3 years. I may be wrong in feeling the true comparator for next year in 1974. But for now I’m sticking with it.

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