Sunday Polls

I’m about to head up to Birmingham, so won’t necessarily be around much for the next few days (not least, when Lord Ashcroft releases his latest marginal poll at 2pm today I’ll be on a train!), but here’s a quick summary of today’s other polls.

ComRes in the Independent on Sunday have topline figures of CON 29%(-3), LAB 35%(+1), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 19%(+1). Changes are from their previous online poll a month ago. Tabs are here.

Opinium for the Observer have toplines of CON 32%(+3), LAB 34%(-3), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 17%(-2). Changes are from a fortnight ago.

Finally the weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has toplines of CON 31%, LAB 36%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%. While some other pollsters have already shown the Greens in fourth place, this is the first time that YouGov have shown them catching the Liberal Democrats. Tabs are here.

There is no obvious impact in the polls from the Labour party conference – ComRes have their lead up, Opinium down, YouGov not far from their recent average. In YouGov’s survey they asked if Labour’s conference made people more or less positive about Ed Miliband – 13% said more positive, 15% more negative, 54% unchanged.

YouGov also had several questions on Iraq, showing majority support for British airstrikes against ISIS (58% support for attacks in Iraq, 53% for attacks in Syria) but continuing opposition to putting ground troops back into Iraq (26% approve, 53% disapprove). YouGov also asked about whether Britain should co-operate with Assad or Iran in fighting ISIS. People are evenly split over Assad – 36% think we should co-operate with the regime, 34% that we should not. With Iran people are far more supportive of co-operation – 54% of people think that we should co-operate with Iran, 18% are opposed.


857 Responses to “Sunday Polls”

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  1. Ist – all the way from Cyprus but back home tomorrow.

  2. It’s probably been posted a hundred times already and I’ve missed it but if UKIP do win their current VI (around 18%) and the Greens (6-7%) at the GE then how many seats would both parties win?
    ……
    AW….Your link to the Yougov tables is buggered but have a nice trip to Birmingham and I hear the flying Scotsman is due in at New street this afternoon pulled by a Class 45 so be sure to have your note pad and pen read…

  3. I used to get excited about the imminence of an Ashcroft marginal poll but so far they have been a disappointment with no real polling done in the areas that matter- ie the 50 seats plus that Lab need for a majority.

    I will be excited when the first Rochester poll comes out though- a Tory hold may dent UKIP’s momentum but a UKIP win will make the bandwagon potentially unstoppable.

  4. @ AC

    I guess the lower the votes for Lab and Con we see the more random the outcome is likely to be and down to individual seats- very difficult to calculate on UNS as it will depend how the UKIP and Green vote is distributed.

  5. Notice Boris Johnson’s dad (who’s name I forget) only quoted the two point Labour lead on Radio 4 today. Well I suppose selective use of polls is not a new thing.

  6. @ Shevii

    Ashcroft’s polling of the marginals do seem to have been focussed on showing the Tories that they can’t win with their current strategy, rather than being designed to show who would win, were an election to be held now.

  7. Looking at the old Harwich constituency, like Medway it had been a Labour gain in 1997 becoming more marginal thereafter.

    Unlike Reckless in Medway, Carswell took Harwich under the old boundaries in 2005.

    Harwich
    1997
    Referendum Party 9.2% (Lab majority 2.3%)
    2001
    Ukip 5.2% (Lab maj 5.4%)
    2005
    Ukip 4.5% (Con maj 1.8%)

    Medway
    1997
    Referendum Party 3.2% (Lab maj 12%)
    2001
    Ukip 2.5% (Lab maj 9.8%)
    2005
    Ukip 3.6% (Lab maj 0.5%)

    Ukip stood aside in both Clacton and Rochester & Strood in 2010.
    BNP stepped into the breach in Clacton with 4.6% (Con maj 28%)
    Eng Dems got in on the act with 4.5% (Con maj 20.8%).

    Reckless has 5 fewer years incumbency behind him… on plus side Daniel Hannan was his best man (as he was Dan Hannan’s).

  8. Eng Dems got in on the act *in Rochester and Strood*

  9. SHEVII

    That’s true a lot of factors will come into play. I still think UKIP will implode during the election but if they do hit anything near their current VI then I just wonder what the political map will look like.

    Mind you the Greens and UKIP can both poll well but end up with nothing r very little.

  10. I’m about to head up to Birmingham

    Do you think this is wise? It’ll be jammed with MPs wanting you to reassure them absolutely that they personally will retain their seat. You may not be able to cope with such much neediness.

  11. In terms of Labour’s chances at the next GE, I thought it might be useful to point out the following. Since the omnishambles budget of March 2012:

    1. Labour has led in over 700 national opinion polls, the Tories in 6 and never by more than 2 points.

    2. All bar 16 polls have a projected Labour majority (through electoral calculus).

    3. Surely it’s not credible to suggest that of intended Labour voters, any limitations of Ed Miliband (who by next May, will be the longest serving leader of the opposition in British history to face their first GE) have not been substantially factored in?

    IMO the Tories are in slow terminal decline. Labour is not.

  12. “So much neediness”. Threee lines and I can’t get it right.

  13. @ Roger Mexico

    Oneee line & you can’t get it right. :-)

  14. @Billy Bob

    As I said at the tail end of the last thread, I think Labour can get back up to between 34% and 38% based on LibDem swing alone. This leaves the Conservatives in the position where losing 15 points to UKIP gives the seat to Labour.

  15. Roger

    have you invented a new number? is “threee” just a bit more than 3 but not quite 4

  16. ciderman

    Very much how I see it.

    People are not – as p’man seems to expect – suddenly think on May 15th:

    “Ooh, come to think of it I DO prefer the idea of five more years of Tory government – preferably on their own this time.”

  17. @Richard,

    I think Three E was an early prototype of the technology that went onto to become Three G?

  18. @Mike B

    Boris’s dad is called Stanley. He’s just as laconical as his son but more switched on.

  19. @Ciderman

    Not only is “Ed is Carp” priced into the current polling, the polling shows that the dislike comes from within the Labour party core-vote. And I would strongly suggest it comes from the doom sayers who have become convinced that despite all evidence to the opposite, that they ‘should be doing better’ or that Ed is leading them to defeat.

    Expect a stunning swing around in Ed’s personal support on a Labour win.

  20. RAF

    a switched on Boris would be quite a sight with his hairdo.

  21. Davis was good on DP. I agree with him on the “getting the Kippers back” problem.

    But it isn’t easy whatever Cons do or say. A good chunk of them actually want Miliband to win imo-followed by a disastrous/short Labour administration & a re-aligned Tory Party.

    What can you do with kamikazes like that?

    Whilst Labour cling on to that 29 + 6, its a tough call for DC.

  22. Thanks @RAF I must say that I am more impressed by Alan Johnson than any of the Boris family.

  23. JayBlanc
    I think you are right about EM’s overall unpopularity coming mainly within disloyal Labour circles itself. One might have expected some supplementary questioning of Labour voters, to discover whether it is so as you suggest, namely a personality issue or whether it is ‘right wing vs left wing’.

    We have to remember that Miliband was rejected by MPs and constituency Labour members, so the theory that he is too left wing or too right wing for Labour voter tastes, for instance, remains a puzzle.

    Related to this I found the ISIS bombing vote interesting. It suggested to me that if EM founds a government with only a small majority, he will be continually in difficulty with the ‘marxist’ element. Having looked at the names, I just wondered how many were standing again, as they collectively looked a bit ancient to me.

  24. Amber Star

    @ Roger Mexico

    Oneee line & you can’t get it right. :-)

    I know. Well at least it proves Murphry’s Law applies even if you’re correcting yourself.

  25. @Colin

    You’re obviously right there as regards the kamikaze tendency. It’s a dangerous disease for a party to catch – you’ll remember that Labour caught it in the 70s and almost succumbed to the infection.

    Dangerous for the country too – in a two party system (and we still have that, so all shut up) you need two parties who want to win.

    29 + 6 looked like a certainty from the moment the Coalition agreement was signed, but the Cons didn’t want to see it somehow. Ostriches on the front bench, kamikaze on the back. Not a good look, and I rather think Cameron is to blame – you picked the wrong David.

  26. “Mr Cameron tells the paper: “Our ambition is to abolish youth unemployment and make it the case that it’s simply not possible anymore to finish school, leave home, sign on and get a flat through housing benefit.” ”

    Is that possible now?

  27. R&D

    I disagree, as I said yesterday and as we saw in Scotland, the people have a habit of producing the right result when the horrors of the alternative is presented to them.

    Three factors will be at work; who leads, exposure of UKIP to intense scrutiny which could motivate non voters into coming out to stop them in their target seats especially, and a recovery of LD support from it’s current nadir state.

    All of these can contribute to limiting Miliband to around 31 and pushing Cameron towards 38. A majority will be tough, we are under no illusions but it is achievable.

  28. @Pressman

    Recovery of the LD vote is likely to help Labour as it needs the LDs to fight off the Tories in the South of England.

  29. @ Pressman

    I disagree, as I said yesterday and as we saw in Scotland, the people have a habit of producing the right result when the horrors of the alternative is presented to them.
    ————–
    I think you are misinterpreting the outcome of the Scottish referendum.

  30. “..who leads …”

    It’s possible IMO that it won’t be DC leading the Tories at the next GE.

    I think many people are underestimating the potential for the Tory party to ditch DC and move further right to catch UKIP voters. And some elements in the Tory party may prefer to have a new leader before the GE so that there is reduced scope for BoJo to be installed/elected.

    Losses of more MPs and defeat in the two bye-elections may well bring about a tipping point.

  31. Mike – its too late for that , we are where we are. DC and Hague were both very good today, stressing over and again that the choice is between DC and EM and to forget the sideshow. That mantra has to be repeated again and again over the coming 7 months.

  32. > Thanks @RAF I must say that I am more impressed by Alan Johnson than any of the Boris family.

    I prefer the elder brother, Brian.

  33. Pressman
    What else could DC say in the circumstances? Panic will grip the party within weeks.

    And there’s plenty of time for the party to change leaders.

    Personally I hope DC stays.

  34. Johnson should stand in the Rochester and Strood by-election. Should ensure a defeat for UKIP and enable him to oust Cameron in time to lose the election in May.

  35. Who on earth would they change to?
    Osborne is more unpopular than DC, Gove is a busted flush, Davis has already lost once and (says) he doesn’t want it, Boris isn’t eligible.
    That seems to leave T.May.
    I suspect she would be far better than DC – not difficult – so who knows?

  36. “And there’s plenty of time for the party to change leaders.”

    Cameron is one of the few things the party has in its favour but there’s little evidence to suggest that the choice of leader makes much difference to how people vote anyway.

  37. RogerH
    Yes, I suppose that makes sense (especially the last bit)

  38. That’s nonsense Roger. Its why over 14 million came out to stop Kinnock in 92.

  39. @Mike B

    Alan Johnson v David Davis would have made the past 3-4 years good for us political geeks.

    @Pressman

    “the people have a habit of producing the right result when the horrors of the alternative is presented to them”

    Amber is right. The outcome is only the time since the referendum, and there’s not been enough of that to let the dust settle. You got your ‘right result’, but will it get you your ideal government?

    You see, your idea of a good government is so alien to some North of the border, and vice versa, that you might just have been better off without them after all. You might want to ask yourself why it has been 22 years since the people of the UK elected a Conservative majority, and also 22 years since Scotland elected more than one Conservative MP.

  40. The other point is that chucking out your leader- especially the incumbent Prime Minister- eight months before an election makes your party look demented.

    It’s the reason this has been Miliband’s first conference without speculation about whether he’ll still be Labour leader come the election, and the same thing applies to Cameron but on stilts, because he actually polls well.

    @ Pressy,

    I do look forward to the Sun talking up the Lib Dems right before the election. That should be an amusing read. (Well, if I read the Sun. But no doubt you’ll report on it for us.)

  41. @Pressman

    You just repeat the same nonsense regardless of how many times you’re presented with the evidence to disprove your claims.

  42. @ MIKEB Notice Boris Johnson’s dad (who’s name I forget) only quoted the two point Labour lead on Radio 4 today. Well I suppose selective use of polls is not a new thing.

    As I heard it, Mr Johnson senior said that Labour’s lead had gone from 8 points two weeks ago to the present 2 points and was in freefall (perhaps not the exact words, but certainly the meaning). Classic misuse of polling evidence.

  43. @jayblanc

    Up until 2010 Medway had three Labour MPs:
    Medway, Chatham and Aylesford, Gilingham

    After 2010 there are/were three Conservative MPs:
    Rochester & Strood, Chatham & Aylesford, Gillingham & Rainham.

    The town centres of Rochester, Chatham and Gilligham are one conurbation… no more than five minutes walk for Tracy Crouch, for example, to be in the heart of Mark Reckless territory.

    Both Labour and Conservatives have estabished operations. LDs less so, they don’t field full slates in the local elections and it is less than clear where the 2010 LD vote will go.

    On what evidence we have Labour don’t seem to be exactly resurgent, though they have made some gains.

    I’d think a Tory hold in Rochester & Strood is more likely than a Labour gain.

    Reckless admits he had sleepless nights over the decision, who knows, he might even be regretting it already. Can’t rule him out at this stage though… as you say, we await an opinion poll on this one.

  44. Statgeek, the Tories were once the Conservative and Unionist party, Maggie wouldn’t have allowed to the descent to near independence in the first place.

  45. Does anybody else think that the Tory opening announcements on the EU, ECHR & welfare cuts will simply harden the red Dems’ resolve to vote Labour?

  46. @pressman

    Swing voters were scared of Kinnock.
    No one is scared of Ed.

  47. 8/1 for Labour in the Rochester & Strood by-election looks quite generous. With the Tory vote shared with UKIP and Labour gaining some ex-LibDems it could be a three-way fight.

  48. @Jayblanc

    That part of the world seems to have swung violently against Labour since 2005.

  49. Maggie, who managed to give away Rhodesia, Hong Kong and the Falklands.

  50. @ Howard,

    I think most of them are sticking around- the big clearout seems to be of the New Labour greybeards like Straw and Blunkett. But 24 is not a big rebellion, and they can be relied upon not to vote down a budget or trigger a confidence vote. They won’t risk letting the Tories in.

    For foreign policy Miliband can probably rely on cross-party support the way Cameron has for things like gay marriage, and for domestic policy a little SCG influence might help rather than hinder Labour’s popularity. The Shadow Cabinet are well to the right of the electorate on issues like rail re-nationalisation.

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