ICM Welsh poll

BBC Wales had a new ICM poll of Wales out this morning, conducted in the aftermath of the Scottish referendum. Westminister voting intentions in Wales, with changes from the previous ICM Welsh poll in February, are CON 23%(-1), LAB 38%(-4), LDEM 7%(-2), Plaid 13%(-1), UKIP 14%(+7). This puts UKIP up into third place in Wales, though on a uniform swing wouldn’t give them any seat (on his blog Roger Scully projects these figures would produce 28 Labour MPs (up 2), 8 Conservatives (unchanged), 1 Lib Dem (down 2) and 3 Plaid Cymru (no change)). Asked about Wales’s constitutional future just 3% would support Welsh independence, 49% would support extra powers for the Welsh Assembly, 26% support the status quo, 12% would like the Assembly abolished.

Meanwhile tonight’s YouGov GB poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 37%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%


528 Responses to “ICM Welsh poll”

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  1. Northumbrianscot

    Agreed about Michael Moore. His stance on the Smith Commission may also enhance the respect that many (even on my side of the past debate) gave him.

    http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/news/293602-lord-smith-says-new-devolution-must-not-be-list-of-unrelated-powers/

    While the Smith Commission’s conclusions will not bind the UK Government, it’s difficult to see how the final legislation could deviate much from them, if this devolution settlement is to hold in the longer term.

    We will be able to judge the party stances better once their positions are published on the Commission’s website but some stances seem predictable.

    The SNP and Greens will be arguing for the maximum level of devolution attainable. The LDs will, presumably, articulate the level of devolution they feel matches most closely to their Federal UK model.

    Judging by the pre-referendum proposals produced by the Unionist parties, Labour will suggest the most minimal transfer of powers, but they may decide that the watering down of proposals insisted on by Scottish Labour MPs was an error.

    The Tories might see political advantage in maximising devolution – as long as that also results in England (or England-and-Wales) enjoying the same powers.

    Any party that refuses to sign up to the conclusions, or is seen as preventing a settlement, may well suffer the ire of the electorate.

    Of them all, I suspect Labour has the most difficult task to come up with a coherent position.

  2. @John B

    “The Brown proposals have been linked by Cameron to movement on the wider question.”

    He tried that but almost immediately had to back down and agree that they wouldn’t be linked:

    “David Cameron will back further powers for Scotland whatever the outcome of talks on English devolution, Downing Street was forced to admit on Sunday, in a move that will further anger his restless backbenchers.”

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/eb1d4b70-41b9-11e4-b98f-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3ERaqRG7e

  3. “As for any Tories coming out against EV4EL, I suspect they might find UKIP doing rather well as a result.”

    I’m pretty sure that MPs like Ken Clarke and Dominic Grieve would object (not to mention the House of Lords).

  4. @Alan Christie- Thanks for correction, Mind you the link is still worth looking at despite my ignorant introduction to it,

  5. Here’s one Scottish vote share scenario that’s well into uncharted waters:

    Con 18% (+15%)
    Lab 35% (-7%)
    SNP 35% (+15%)
    LD 7% (-12%)

    Even on such a huge 11% uniform swing Labour to SNP, Labour would still lose only 3 Scottish seats net. Only when you get beyond that do they start to incur serious damage.

  6. Phil Haines

    Your Con line should read

    Con 18% (+2%)

  7. I agree Michael Moore is one of the politicians who had a good referendum campaign. Borders voters tend to like an independent minded but high profile politician so being sacked as Scottish Secretary probably helped too.

    I suspect he will survive along with John Thurso, Charles Kennedy and Alistair Carmichael.

    Danny Alexander I think could go either way. His high profile should help him but being in the treasury will not. The factor that might save him is a divided opposition.

  8. Northumbrianscot

    O&S are likely to keep voting Liberal (and I use the term advisedly) so Carmichael is safe.

    Charlie Kennedy, I think, will continue to be a Highland MP for as long as he wants to be – whether he has any party label or none.

    We agree about Michael Moore – and you make a good point about his unceremonious sacking by Clegg during the referendum campaign as strengthening rather than weakening his chances.

    Alexander may survive if the Labour vote keeps up. If it slides, then he is gone.

    Thurso is a more difficult call. I just don’t know whether his personal popularity in the constituency is greater than the general contempt for the LDs as a party.

  9. @Northumbrian Scot

    Danny A is a bit of a difficult one to read. Very wedded to the Treasury line on economic matters, he is however very strongly in favour of significantly increased powers for Holyrood. I don’t think he’s in danger.

  10. AW
    Although banned from posting I still look in for interests. However even on Welsh polls the comment is dominated by the Scots nays folk . It is becoming very boring

  11. John Thurso always comes across to me as someone straight out of a John Buchan novel (somewhere between Edward Leithen and Sir Harry).

    I suspect he has a decent sized personal vote and will hold on fairly comfortably, but it wouldn’t be a complete shock if he lost.

  12. Kim-Jung-Rong-Un is, report the BBC.

    “suffering from gout, along with hyperuricemia, hyperlipidemia, obesity, diabetes and high blood pressure”.

    Now that is sad.

  13. JOHN B… ALLAN & NORTHUMBRIANSCOT

    Thanks for that. I keep forgetting the Borders is rather fertile ground for the Tories.

    I agree Murphy should be safe unless there is a shift from Labour to the SNP in places such as Barrhead and Neilston then the Tories could just nick it.

    Also as someone suggested, the Lib/Dems do have a strong incumbency factor and they may hold onto more seats than the current polling is suggesting.

  14. MAURA
    Allan Christie
    Parrots don’t snarl. Also, unless they have breathing problems, they don’t wheeze
    _______

    Well the one I’m on about is rather obscure so a snarl and a wheeze shouldn’t come as a surprise.
    …………………

    STATGEEK

    Interesting map that but i couldn’t help noticing the Western Isles were split…North saying NAW and the South saying Aye.

  15. Fortunately I would imagine obesity, diabetes and high blood pressure are rather uncommon among the people of North Korea…

  16. Great I thought. A poll about Welsh VI. It will make a nice change after all the Referendum stuff, interesting though it was.
    Then I started reading the thread.
    Jeez
    Zzzzzzzzz

  17. Whilst speculating on where the SNP stand with regard to Scottish MPs in Westminster, people might want to keep in mind that the SNP MPs all voted against the proposed boundary changes because: ‘the changes would reduce Scottish representation in Westminster’.

  18. @Valerie

    The triumph of hope over experience?

  19. Allan: “Interesting map that but i couldn’t help noticing the Western Isles were split…North saying NAW and the South saying Aye.”

    That’s just because each area has been divided simply according to proportion of yes/no. Where the division appears within each area isn’t linked to detailed voting patterns.

  20. Valerie

    I must have missed your comments on the Welsh poll. Can you give me the times that you posted on it, so I can read them?

  21. MUDDY WATERS

    Thanks for clearing that up.

  22. Further devolution to Wales?

    Poll respondents backed devolving –

    Welfare Benefits by 56% to 27%
    Police & Justice by 60% to 27%
    Income Tax by 46% to 36%

  23. Very sorry that we are at war again.The innocent suffer.As always.

  24. Old Nat

    Sarcastic, unpleasant, deliberately mis-interpreting a perfectly fair comment by Valerie. You just can’t accept any criticism, can you ?
    A handful of Scottish posters including you have taken over a Welsh thread to continue arguing about the fall-out from the Scottish referendum. Of course it is VERY BORING for the rest of us. But recognising the nights of the majority isn’t your strong point, perhaps.

  25. I wonder how many of the posters here are or have been senior academics. That air of just knowing that you are the cleverest person in the room sometimes pervades the place. (Admission: I’m a recovering academic.)

  26. Welsh Borderer

    I commented on the Welsh poll at the beginning of this thread.

    Those wishing to discuss it should so so, don’t you think, instead of complaining that other issues are being discussed?

    I’ve subsequently posted on further devolution to Wales, as well. Presumably you disagree with your compatriots, but it seems a topic worth discussing on a Welsh thread.

  27. Ann in Wales

    Agreed. While it’s easy to look back into history and see how imposing artificial boundaries from outwith the region caused many of the problems, it’s not easy to see how the current mess is to be resolved.

    I doubt that the UK, Denmark etc sending planes will do much good, if the underlying conflicts between those in that part of the former Ottoman Empire can’t be resolved.

    Talking about the involvement lasting for years seems infinitely sad.

  28. Lefty

    no, I’ve never been an academic, left school when i was 16. Never had any kind of job in academia not even as a janitor (no “good will hunting”) however despite that i still know that I’m the cleverest one here!! Well it’s a toss up between me and oldnat

  29. @Ann in Wales

    Could I point out that tourists being held in dreadful conditions are probably more innocent than you or I.

  30. It seems to me that in a relatively small island devolving powers to tax things that can move could be problematic. Businesses can move to places with the lowest corporation tax (or pretend to) and rich people can decamp to places where their income is least taxed. So governments faced with this problem would be tempted to reduce their own taxes and in short order it could be quite difficult to raise these taxes at all,

    This is less true of houses. Taxing them high may reduce their price but the house itself remains, Why is it that nobody seems serious about updating the rates or whatever they are now called – other that is than by introducing a mansion tax that may only bite in London?

  31. RiN

    I’d give the title to Roger Mexico. Dunno whether he’s the cleverest, but he knows (or knows how to look up) lots of things and has the great advantage of standing outside the UK political system.

  32. How many seats will UKIP get at the next election? :)

  33. Welsh Borderer

    It really is simpler to just let it all go – nasty though the responses always are.

  34. I’d give the title to Reg of the BNP.

    I found his posting very warm and factual although I’m still waiting for his response to the BNP’s policy for subsidising pig farmers on Tiree.

    If he gave me an answer then he might had got my vote.

  35. That’s the 3rd time today!!

  36. Charles

    I agree re Income Tax. It’s why the tax-varying powers of the Scottish Parliament have never been used, and why I thought the former policies of the SNP and Scottish Lib-Dems for local Income Tax were misguided.

    Land Value Tax seems a far more profitable aspect for the devolved governments to explore. If Housing Benefit is to be devolved, then presumably so will Council Tax Reduction be. The blocks imposed by the DWP on paying benefits to reduce any charge other than the Council Tax was one of the main reasons for abandoning the change to local Govt finance.

  37. Old Nat

    Well you belatedly posted on Wales. But once again you only quote Welsh figures selectively to support your nationalist views. You deliberately – despite my previous post – forget the most important and unique feature of the poll : that only 3% of the Welsh electorate support independence. The lowest % ever recorded. In a poll conducted immediately after the Scottish referendum in which Plaid campaigned vocally in Wales as well as Scotland for BOTH countries to become independent.

    If you asked most people anywhere in the UK if they would like more control over welfare benefits, or police, they would tend to say Yes. It means very little. There is no enthusiasm in Wales for an Assembly whose quality barely rises above local Council level, and which cannot even manage a simple bank account for its own administration in Cardiff Bay without losing thousands of Welsh (and rUK) taxpayers money to fraud. Giving them more powers would be utterly naive. I speak as someone who supported an Assembly and voted Yes in both our previous referenda. Never again – No to any more powers, and unless they meet or better English and Scottish NHS and school standards by (say) 2020 , we should abolish the Assembly and replace if with a beefed up Welsh Office and 4 strong unitary local authorities in Wales – one for a S Wales City region including Swansea, Newport and Cardiff, and three others to cover Welsh-speaking Wales, rCentral Wales and the Welsh Borders. NHS should be devolved to those authorities too. Then you could get get joined up health and social services as I believe Nye Bevan originally wanted.

  38. Actually RICHARD IN NORWAY cuts the mustard with me. His commentary on the Lib/Dems in recent by-elections is priceless.

  39. Welsh Borderer

    Posting poll data can’t be called “selective” when all the relevant questions from the poll are quoted.

    You are quite right that support for Welsh independence is the lowest in any recent poll, but then I never suggested otherwise!

    Welsh independence is a matter for the Welsh. However, my original point was that the 3% (by definition) want additional powers for the Senedd. Adding them to the 49% who want those extra powers seems a perfectly reasonable thing to do.

    You disagree with your compatriots, but that suggests you are in a small minority group in Wales – albeit a larger group than those advocating Welsh independence.

  40. So, lots of speculation on here about how dreadful the 2015 GE could be for Labour in Scotland; & of course it could be dreadful or then again, maybe not.

    Has there been any polling which might help us evaluate the situation? There hasn’t been much, just one poll of which I’m aware: Opinium for the Observer on Sat 13th September (53% No 47% Yes).

    And what was the Westminster VI?
    Labour 42% (42%) (2010 % of vote)
    SNP 25% (20%)
    CON 18% (17%)
    LD 6% (19%)
    UKIP 5% (~1%)
    GRN 4% (~1%)

    It’s just one poll but it certainly doesn’t show Labour collapsing. The SNP have improved on 2010, as would be expected given the circumstances.

    I have waited patiently for Roger Mexico or another of UKPR’s experts to review this poll & explain why it’s ‘wrong’ – but it hasn’t happened yet!

  41. Oldnat

    you are assuming that outsiders ourselves included have any interest in resolving the “underlying conflicts”. It’s a regional and global proxy war with ever shifting sides

    Israel. ..They just want chaos, they ain’t too fussy about who they arm or train. Just as long as their neighbours stay weak and they can take advantage later

    Saudi Arabia. …They want to push a gas pipeline through Syria but more important to them is their regional power struggle with Iran, stopping the Shia pipeline from Iran to the Syrian coast is their number one objective. If they can keep the Shia govt in Iraq weak that’s a big bonus

    Qatar. …again the pipeline but much more important to them than the saudis, they have huge gas fields and want to transport that gas as cheaply as possible to the European market. Oddly they both cooperate and compete with the saudis

    Iran. … the Shia pipeline, again big gas fields totally useless unless they can get their gas to market at a competitive price but the regional power struggle with Saudi Arabia shapes their involment.

    Russia. ….supports it’s ally Iran but truth be told their best interest is no pipeline of any kind, they get to keep a lucrative stranglehold on the European gas market.

    USA. ….

    Europe. ….

    China. …..

    Turkey. ……

    sorry I got tired, it’s so complicated and so involved that really just to scratch the surface would take a small book

  42. RiN

    Time to chillax, and not worry about world stuff.

    On BBC4 I’ve just watched the last Ziggy Stardust gig (excellent), and now watching a Queen gig from 1975.

    Rock and roll.

  43. Amber

    There was the Survation poll just after the referendum which suggested a 4% lead for Lab over SNP – but with 46% undecided, so not really indicative of how people might go.

    Since it’s likely that the Smith Commission Report will have an influence on how further devolution for Wales will also turn out, have you any info on who the Lab members of the Smith Commission will be?

  44. AMBER

    That poll was taken before the indy ref. Now it could be that come 2015 nothing much happens in Scotland except the near extinction of the lib/Dems but I just think that many of the people who voted Yes who have never voted SNP before may vote SNP.

    We have had a poll out showing the SNP on 50% for Holyrood and sub samples showing the SNP on 49% for Westminster which have been quite consistent (I know the huge error of margin with subs) and not to mention the huge surge in SNP membership so something is happening in Scotland.

    Of course we will just have to wait and see how it all pans out and it might just end up being a damp squib.

  45. RiN

    I was actually assuming that the West has zero interest in solving the underlying conflicts, and that the UK going to war again will solve nothing in the region.

    Whether it will make things worse for people there, I don’t know, but I can’t see it making things any better for people anywhere.

  46. RIN

    “Israel. ..They just want chaos, they ain’t too fussy about who they arm or train. Just as long as their neighbours stay weak and they can take advantage later”
    _______

    Absolutely.

  47. How is Putin getting on with Crimea? Is the broadband up and running yet?

  48. Allan Christie

    “How is Putin getting on with Crimea? Is the broadband up and running yet?”

    That depends on the success of the Charge of the Fibre Optic Brigade.

    (I’ll get me coat)

  49. OLDNAT

    :-) :-) :-) lol

  50. What is the point in Cameron saying Gove wasn’t demoted?

    It is utterly clear that a major role in one of the biggest departments of government is on an entirely different scale to being responsible for internal party discipline in the commons.

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