ICM Welsh poll

BBC Wales had a new ICM poll of Wales out this morning, conducted in the aftermath of the Scottish referendum. Westminister voting intentions in Wales, with changes from the previous ICM Welsh poll in February, are CON 23%(-1), LAB 38%(-4), LDEM 7%(-2), Plaid 13%(-1), UKIP 14%(+7). This puts UKIP up into third place in Wales, though on a uniform swing wouldn’t give them any seat (on his blog Roger Scully projects these figures would produce 28 Labour MPs (up 2), 8 Conservatives (unchanged), 1 Lib Dem (down 2) and 3 Plaid Cymru (no change)). Asked about Wales’s constitutional future just 3% would support Welsh independence, 49% would support extra powers for the Welsh Assembly, 26% support the status quo, 12% would like the Assembly abolished.

Meanwhile tonight’s YouGov GB poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 37%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%


528 Responses to “ICM Welsh poll”

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  1. PHIL HAINES

    If we even took the most modest prediction for the SNP then some would be happy at that within the party..A gain is a gain.

    I’m not disputing the integrity over all with regards to the bookies and your analysis is correct with what the bookies are saying at the moment.

    The problem I’m highlighting is that if the apparent surge the SNP appear to be enjoying continues for a few more months then I suspect the bookies will change their odds.

    All I’m saying is that we are in uncharted waters at the moment and the bookies may well have to adjust to that factor so that is why I’m not paying too much attention to what they are saying at the moment.

  2. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    @”No one knows for sure what the consequences for the SNP and Labour will be in 2015 with regards to Scotland.”

    That’s about the only comment in this dire conversation worth the reading. At least it is true.

    As for the pointless examination of the Referendum entrails to see what the DKs actually meant !-jeez, what is the point of it all?

    I suppose it all derives from Labour supporters who are praying like crazy that a No vote meant Yes to everything constituting the status quo in Scotish politics., and poking around in the Referendum entrails for some voodo sign that all will be well in future for their favoured MPs.

    As you say Alan, they will find out in just a few months time-and then can spend the next year convincing themselves that they can count on the Scottish electorate not to upset the cosy world of their Holyrood apple cart.

  3. POSTAGEINCLUDED
    @AC
    You’ve proved Robin’s point, I fear.
    And nobody is “shouting you down”, just disagreeing you
    ______

    Sorry I seem to be digging a hole here…. I’m not on about debating and of course people will disagree with me and more often than not in my debates I either compromise or admit that I am wrong..I don’t have a problem with that..

    I’m on about the couple of resident posters who snarl and chew away at..not just me but other posters who are expressing an opinion.

    Now I made a silly joke last night and the resident parrot went to great lengths to make a mountain out of a mole hill and has a very nasty way with debating with other posters.

    That’s what I’m on about…Not people who disagree with me.

  4. ALEC
    ” the Union was seen as having failed”

    It wasn’t, and it hasn’t. Westminster government was seen as having failed, in specific respects affecting Scotland, and the regions.

  5. @AC

    “Sorry I seem to be digging a hole here”

    I recall an adage about that, which you would be well-advised to heed.

  6. COLIN

    That’s about the crux of it lol

  7. ROBIN
    @AC
    “Sorry I seem to be digging a hole here”
    …..
    I recall an adage about that, which you would be well-advised to heed
    _____

    Selective quoting!

  8. @AC

    I’m sure you’re not intending to be funny.

  9. I think I’ve just been bitch-slapped!!

    :-):-):-)

  10. @ Bramley

    “Is Anthony still in his sick bed ?”

    He can’t be as he’s just updated the UKPR averages back to where they came from.

  11. What does anyone here feel are the SNP’s prospects without Salmond as leader? Under John Swinney’s leadership 2000-04, the party’s fortunes declined.

  12. By the way, and on a much lighter note, what’s going on at Gleneagles? USA lead 2.5 to 1.5 after this morning’s fourballs. Time for a Euro surge in this afternoon’s foursomes.

    Sadly, I’ll miss the singles shoot-out on Sunday because I’m in Bratislava for a long weekend, partly to enjoy a bit of well regarded Slovakian beer and wine, and Austrian too if I can get the train for a day trip to Vienna, but also because it allows me to escape the likely carnage at Stamford Bridge where Villa go visiting on Saturday.

    Ken – if you’re lurking; take pity on us, please!

    :-)

  13. Just when I thought I’d got clear of West Lothian questions on here I pick up my Alexander McCall Smith book where 6 year old Bertie meets Tam Dalyell and he has to explain it to him…

    Worth reading just for the bit where the kids are arguing whether the Ed Miliband designer clothes are still in fashion or not.

  14. @CB11 / Roger

    I simply took the largest number from the wiki page:

    Voting age population and turnout – 4,436,428 and divided each set of votes against it, and took their sum from 100 to get the no shows.

  15. @Shevii

    Hopefully he’s preparing a new thread. This one seems to have run it’s course.

  16. Statgeek

    I simply took the largest number from the wiki page:

    Voting age population and turnout – 4,436,428 and divided each set of votes against it, and took their sum from 100 to get the no shows.

    That’s where you went wrong. That’s just the estimate of the 16+ population. But that will include not just those who haven’t registered but also people who aren’t entitled to a vote because of not having UK/EU/Commonwealth citizenship or without permanent leave to remain. You can make even less assumptions over their political leanings than those of the non-votes and in any case it’s only an estimate.

  17. Interesting that UKIP policy is against the proposed bombing campaign by which do I deduce lefty Dems and Lab are a real target for them. Couple that with the inroads which the SNP are said to be making into the labour vote in Scotland and you could have a pincer movement against labour which could cost them quite a few seats in the GE.

    Whilst I agree with Alec that the SNP holds no brief for the Tories, perhaps they might prefer to sit down with them (as opposed to labour) to negotiate further devolution, if the Tories are seen to be offering more devolved powers than labour. All Cameron has to do is offer to devolve all domestic matters including taxation. Not only will that stuff labour, who don’t want to hand over taxation powers but it will give the Scots most of what they want, without all the downsides of full independence and banish another independence vote forever. I can even live with the continuance of the Barnett formula for the time being but any handover must incorporate a review of it in say 10 years time.

    So the union is saved, Scots get most of what they want and the Tories are re elected with a majority sufficient for them to get the boundary changes through and solve the West Lothian conundrum by stopping Scottish, Welsh & NI mP’s voting on England only legislation. The SNP should be ambivalent on that anyway as I believe that they abstain anyway, at such times.

    Cameron just needs to set it all out clearly in the election manifesto.

  18. @Roger

    Aw well…then my arithmetic is out, if not my sentiments on the non-voters.

  19. …. but before we go, may we just return to Wales for a moment? This may have been covered when the thread started back in the middle ages, but the question regarding people’s views on independence, the Assembly and so forth took place within the context of a poll on Westminster VIs.
    Is there any research on whether a different response comes when the poll is asking about Assembly VIs?

  20. I ought to have specified – mine of 2.48 carries on from Bramley’s of 2.23.

  21. @RN

    ‘….banish another independence vote forever. …….. So the union is saved, Scots get most of what they want ….’

    Not ‘for ever’ – though probably for a while; the Union is saved for the time being – probably; move the word ‘most’ to before ‘Scots’ and you get ‘most Scots get what they want’

    For the time being.

    Remember: for all Scots – yes and no voters – this is an on-going conversation, even for those who fervently wish to remain in the UK. The Unionists are determined to get the best and most stable set up to preserve the Union. That may not emerge from the proposals put forward during the debates over the past couple of years. Those who propose independence are also ‘on a journey’.

    Long term, the referendum was only one step. It closed one chapter. Now we are into another chapter, and what DC does over the next six months will be an important factor in how things develop between now and the next GE. (In my humble opinion).

  22. Crossbat11

    I know I might be accused of splitting electoral hairs here, but they didn’t, did they? 37.9% of the Scottish electorate voted for independence when you allow for the 15.4% who didn’t vote. In a bipolar referendum choice, an abstention has to be seen as a tacit acceptance of the status quo and I thought it was interesting that Yes did best where the turnout was at its lowest (Glasgow – 75% and Dundee 78.8%). The more voters turned out, the better No did.

    Oh dear. I’ve seen this elsewhere and it appears to be turning into the No equivalent of some of the more deluded claims that there was massive electoral fraud – patiently disassembled on Wings, here:

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/our-man-on-the-scene/

    The people who didn’t vote, didn’t vote, it’s as simple as that. They didn’t accept or reject anything: they may be dead, incarcerated or have left the country; they may be registered in two places (legally or by accident) and correctly only voted in one; they may be non-Brits who feel it’s not for them to take part in this poll (there’s polling evidence for this); they may be children of those idiots who put the entire household on the form and then complain because little Jamie got sent a polling card; they may be indifferent, lazy or confused. We can read nothing into the their motives.

    The relationship between turnout and the Yes vote is also being overstated. The correlation between turnout and Yes vote has R=-0.4 – significant but hardly overwhelming. And even this mild correlation doesn’t imply causation. Of the seven LAs with the lowest turnout five are the University centres (Glasgow, Dundee, Aberdeen, Fife (St Andrews), Edinburgh). The other two are Orkney and Shetland, hardly Yes hotbeds. Other factors seem to be more important. In fact given the known links between poorer SEG areas and both low turnout and voting Yes, you would expect there to be a stronger correlation than there is.

  23. john b

    Is there any research on whether a different response comes when the poll is asking about Assembly VIs?

    Not in the ICM Welsh poll which only seems to have asked about Westminster. The tables are now available here:

    http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/2014_sept_Wales_poll_release1.pdf

    but there was YouGov-ITV Wales poll earlier in the month that did have Assembly figures. I gave details and a link to tables on the first page of this thread (at 8:58 25 Sep).

  24. @Roger

    Isn’t the presence of universities incidental? Might we also say that the lower turnout LAs tend to contain cathedrals? Can we infer a religious aspect? :))

    I think Fife is basically all you would expect in a city, but over a wider area (a mix of poverty, affluence and so on). If you travel to North East Fife, then you will see a more affluent aspect to Fife, while Kirkcaldy, Glenrothes and the Levenmouth area is more working class, and as you might expect is more Labour, than Lib Dem. Fife is an odd place to live if having come from a city. You generally have to travel around a bit to access all the amenities (coming from Aberdeen, I was used to getting all amenities in one city centre).

    The cities will be the places of most deprivation / poverty, but cities tend to be places of universities, due to transport centres, high populations and so on.

    With regards CB11’s post, Yes did best in areas of low wealth and low prospects. These areas equally tend to have low turnout, for probably the same reasons. Had more of the low wealth and low prospects people turned out, which side would have benefited?

    I say Yes, but I wouldn’t say a Yes win would have resulted from max turnout in these areas. A very narrow No win, and conspiracy theories abound. :))

  25. Yes did best in areas of low wealth and low prospects. These areas equally tend to have low turnout, for probably the same reasons. Had more of the low wealth and low prospects people turned out, which side would have benefited?

    A little but not by much. To quote an earlier comment of mine to Phil:

    “Had an electoral college been used, with the eligible population of each authority being apportioned according to the share of each of the vote, the result would have been closer although still the same.”

    It actually makes surprisingly little difference – it increases the Yes vote from 44.7% to 44.9%. The reason, as ever, is because of the uniformity of the result and indeed the topic of independence through Scotland. The range between weakest and strongest LAs for Yes was under 25 points (contrasting with differential support for political Parties). Nowhere did it fall below 30% or get above 60% or near it.

    Turnout was also fairly uniform – only Glasgow (75%), Dundee (78.8%) and Aberdeen (81.7%) fell below a 5 point range (83.7% – 88.7%) and only three above that – obviously not by much. In Glasgow’s case I suspect you are right that there may be problems with the register (I seem to remember an Electoral Commission study), though it’s also worth pointing out that LAs with a lot of students will also have particular problems, with students more likely to have voted at home.

    As for the Universities, it’s all about the students, who might not be there because term hasn’t started. Last year’s graduates will be registered but mostly dispersed. Current students may be registered there at the wrong address and/or have voted at home. Foreign students may be qualified but might feel they shouldn’t.

  26. As regards potential Scottish seat changes in 2015 here’s some numbers:

    If we take the current UKPR average on Electoral Calculus the prediction is Lab 41 (nc) but losing Ochil and gaining Dunbartonshire East, SNP 10 (+4), LibDem 5 (-6), Con 3 (+2).

    If we then model a post No swing of 4% to SNP leaving them and Labour both on around 32% you get an SNP gain of 10 taking 5 from Lab and 5 from SNP.

    Net result would be Lab 37 (-4), SNP 16 (+10), LibDem 3 (-8), Con 3 (+2).

    Even another 4% swing to SNP only increases that to 15 gains, net result Lab 32 (-9), SNP 21 (+15), LibDem 3 (-8) Con 3 (+2).

    So my point being there can be a fairly large swing away from Labour to SNP without that resulting in a large loss of seats.

    There is a tipping point not far beyond that though where the Labour seat loss quickly becomes catastrophic. That is what we saw at Holyrood in 2011. I very much doubt that there will be that level of Swing in the 2015 election but you never know.

  27. ROGER

    You’re falling into the same trap as the resident parrot. Snarling and wheezing from the side lines.
    ……………

    Anyway parrots aside….A question for anyone. What would happen if the SNP won the majority of seats in Scotland in 2015…Would that be the basis for another referendum and if so who would set out the terms?…Westminster and the SNP MP;s or Westminster and the Scottish Gov?

    It’s only a hypothetical question.

  28. NORTHUMBRIANSCOT

    All very plausible but which two seats would the Tories gain?

    At a push I can only think of East Ren held by Labour.

  29. Anyone still interested in the Mid-Lothian thing might like to look up the following by the ‘constitution Unit’ (I think part of UCL)

    http://constitution-unit.com/2014/09/25/the-english-question-comprises-two-broad-questions-with-half-a-dozen-different-answers/

  30. CHARLES

    I think it’s the West Lothian thing..Mind you we do have a East Lothian as well.

  31. John B
    “Long term, the referendum was only one step. It closed one chapter. Now we are into another chapter, and what DC does over the next six months will be an important factor in how things develop between now and the next GE. (In my humble opinion).”

    I agree. DC has the cards. Can he play them to his advantage? Milliband is toast. Even the Guardian seem to have written him off.

  32. Bookies don’t determine odds – the punters do. Bookies adjust their prices in response to demand in order to ensure they make a satisfactory profit. If fewer than 12.5 seats is the bookies’ favourite that’s because it’s the (betting) public’s favourite.

  33. @Roger Mexico

    “The people who didn’t vote, didn’t vote, it’s as simple as that.”

    It’s anything but simple. As you yourself point out, there are numerous reasons why people may not have voted. The one simple fact, though, is that they didn’t vote in favour of independence – which is where we started, with Crossbat11 disputing the claim that “45% of Scots voted for independence”.

  34. Came across this:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ByA14JjIUAAtnkv.jpg:large

    I wasn’t aware that people were looking at the referendum as ‘districts won’. I thought it was a national thing.

  35. @AC

    “All I’m saying is that we are in uncharted waters at the moment….”

    I never disagreed with that view and my point was different to that. But glad we can agree on something.

  36. Robert

    “Interesting that UKIP policy is against the proposed bombing campaign by which do I deduce lefty Dems and Lab are a real target for them.”

    I’m gonna go out on a limb here… but it might just be that the UKIP policy is something they actually believe in! I know it’s an outrageous idea but it fits with the “little englander” profile. Basically they don’t care enough about brown people to bomb them to smitterens….For their own good of course

  37. My. What a flurry of posts on my 45%!

    I should, of course have said “45% of those who voted”.

    As to those on the electoral register who didn’t vote, one of them was Margo.

  38. @Statgeek

    In the long, and unsavoury, history of bad geographic visualisations that has to be the worst.

    It even beats out this: http://xkcd.com/1138/

  39. @AC

    Tories stand a good chance in the eastern Borders (Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk) kicking out Michael Moore, and Robert Smith in Kincardine/Esat Aberdeenshire. Argyll is not beyond them either. All the indications seem to be that Jim Murphy remains fairly safe.

    @RN

    I’m not sure I wanted to imply that DC ‘has the cards’. Much will depend on what the economy does, and whether the interest rate rise can be held off for another six months – or more.

    On the constitutional front, EV4EL may be a good way of combating both UKIP and Labour, but he will have to stop dithering and get on with it if he wants to do something before the next GE. He can’t wait until the runes point unequivocally to a Labour victory, or to a Tory one, before acting on the Brown proposals. He has to force Labour to paint itself into a corner, making it look as though Labour is just trying to hold onto power, using Scots MPs to force through legislation in England. He can’t wait too long on this for another reason: if the SNP continues to receive huge support (and I realise that this is unlikely, and also that a large SNP support doesn’t necessarily translate into a large number of MPs,) then the threat of a Labour government being sustained by Scots will diminish in the eyes of the general pulic. And that could be a trap set by Labour into which DC might fall…..

    All rather speculative, but possible, in my humble opinion.

  40. @JOHN B: “I’m not sure I wanted to imply that DC ‘has the cards’.”

    He has no cards because he has no majority. He has absolutely no chance of introducing EV4EL (which would be opposed by some Tories as well as the other parties).

    Not sure why you bring up Brown’s proposals which are quite separate and have cross-party support.

  41. Allan Christie

    My guess of 2 seats to go Con could be West Aberdeenshire and Berwickshire, a collapsing LD vote might just let a Con victory in those seats.

    A similar situation, but less likely would be Edinburgh west think that will go Lab barring something weird happening.

  42. When you look at it that way, it still looks like a No ;)

  43. @Allan Christie.

    The two seats predicted by Electoral Calculus as Con gains from LD are Berwickshire and West Aberdeenshire.

    In reality Lib Dem incumbents tend to do better than UNS would suggest and Scottish ABT voters may switch if a different challenger to the Tories emerges.

    Given these factors I’d expect West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine to actually be an SNP gain and there’s a reasonable chance Michael Moore could hold Berwickshire for Lib Dems.

  44. @RH

    DC has many cards – among them the promise of immediate action on constitutional matters – something which might well gain support from the LDs. Whether they are strong cards, or whether he will know how to play them are, of course, other matters, as is how Labour would respond to them and, in turn, play their cards.

    The Brown proposals have been linked by Cameron to movement on the wider question. For him, it would seem, the two are inseparable. EM rightly complains that that was not in the original package, but IMO he cannot afford to be portrayed as slowing down the process in order to have a Labour majority after the next GE which will put a stop to EV4EL.

    As for any Tories coming out against EV4EL, I suspect they might find UKIP doing rather well as a result.

    Just a thought….. and, as ever, I bow to superior wisdom on the subject…..

  45. @sheep

    Yes, I thought it even made my charts look pretty. :))

  46. @Northumbrian Scot 5.54

    Agreed.

    The problem of working out the implications of the present VI %ages includes the factor of incumbency, and also the fact that there are now several real three way marginals in Scotland (e.g. Argyll). A few % either way, a bit of tactical voting, incumbency: all are factors which could mean that several seats go against ‘national’ trends.

  47. Allan Christie

    Parrots don’t snarl. Also, unless they have breathing problems, they don’t wheeze.

  48. @Maura

    I, too, had wondered about that; but a friend who has two parrots is currently away on holiday, otherwise I might have been able to offer some authoritative thoughts on the subject myself……

  49. It appears we are going to chucking bombs about again.

  50. John B: “…among them the promise of immediate action on constitutional matters.”

    I really don’t think there’s anything he can realistically do on this before the general election. The Scottish devo Bill won’t start it’s passage until afterwards, so it would be too transparent to try and legislate on England beforehand; there’s not enough time in any case to pass a major constitutional Bill, even if he had the votes; and he doesn’t have the votes to fiddle with the House of Commons standing orders to do something minimalist about the EV4EL. The Standing Orders route is a dead end anyway, because they’re quickly and easily undone by an incoming not-Tory Government, so any pre-election fiddling would be reversed before it became a means to block Labour’s programme.

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