ICM Welsh poll

BBC Wales had a new ICM poll of Wales out this morning, conducted in the aftermath of the Scottish referendum. Westminister voting intentions in Wales, with changes from the previous ICM Welsh poll in February, are CON 23%(-1), LAB 38%(-4), LDEM 7%(-2), Plaid 13%(-1), UKIP 14%(+7). This puts UKIP up into third place in Wales, though on a uniform swing wouldn’t give them any seat (on his blog Roger Scully projects these figures would produce 28 Labour MPs (up 2), 8 Conservatives (unchanged), 1 Lib Dem (down 2) and 3 Plaid Cymru (no change)). Asked about Wales’s constitutional future just 3% would support Welsh independence, 49% would support extra powers for the Welsh Assembly, 26% support the status quo, 12% would like the Assembly abolished.

Meanwhile tonight’s YouGov GB poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 37%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%

528 Responses to “ICM Welsh poll”

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  1. Candy
    I don’t think anyone would seriously argue that a huge number of English people have Welsh, Scots and Irish blood. Likewise, those two nations and the Principality, have hundreds of gallons of Anglo Saxon genes.Personally, I have Norman blood on one side and Huguenot, again probably from Normandy, on the other. None of this a new idea or any kind of shock. It is no reason to expect people in general to be crazy about mass immigration or multiculturalism.

  2. Neil A,

    If I were David Cameron I wouldn’t think that very wise. Holding the seat and refusing to hold a by-election would play right into UKIP’s Vox Populi appeal and would be see as Establishment Inc. denying The People a vote.

    My former MP David Taylor died on Boxing Day 2009 and Labour held the seat open rather than hold a by-election – they consequently got hammered there at the GE on a huge swing.

    They would spend six months getting mauled for that instead of taking a couple of admittedly big hits then trying to keep the rest of their MPs in line.

    Also, the knowledge that further defections would not entail a by-election might encourage more defectors. Really though, it’s rock and a hard place territory for the Tories.

  3. Point very much taken on Hermon – looked at the year rather than the circumstances. This parliament has so far had the fewest defections since the 1987-92 parliament, which had only one.

  4. @Neil A

    I wonder if Mark Reckless calculated that the Tories wouldn’t move the writ when he cosidered his resignation date? If Carswell is elected he could move it, couldn”t he?

  5. I’d got the impression Mark Reckless had long been disillusioned with Government policies. He was one of only six Conservatives (at the time) who voted against the current Iraq intervention.

    Cat among the pigeons time? UKIP having seats in parliament will boost their vote, I would have thought.

  6. mrnameless

    If I were David Cameron I wouldn’t think that very wise. Holding the seat and refusing to hold a by-election would play right into UKIP’s Vox Populi appeal and would be see as Establishment Inc. denying The People a vote.

    Very true. What’s more there’s no guarantee that they would even have the votes in the Commons to prevent such a thing. The Lib Dems are hardly going to want to look even more poodle-like and it’s the ideal subject for Conservative backbenchers to rebel on and play up to their grassroots.

    Labour will want to take the opportunity to appear for the People as well, not to mention that they could even win the seat. As Medway it was held by them up to 2010, admittedly only just in 2005 when Bob Marshall-Andrews announced he was Lazarus risen from the dead (to his own consternation and Blair’s irritation).

  7. Get away from the wealthier middle class areas of major cities and mixing of races is pretty awful. I see it at work continuously. There’s many races living around each other, but mixing and association? Very poor levels.

    Head east from middle class Shoreditch in London (which is a model of mixing in many way) and you get to Whitechapel. Hardly any mixing of races. Groups of only Asians with groups of only Nigerians and groups of only Chinese etc Then you get to Newham. Same story but more West Africans but still very little mixing. Go observe and see groups consisting of just west Africans, other groups of just South Asians, then only white etc and how many are actually mixing. Hardly any at all and depressing.

    Anecdotally, I was at an Asian wedding last month in east London. About 300 guests – only two white people including me as I knew a family member for years. The main families had been in the UK for 20 years plus but most aged above 40 couldn’t speak English and knew no Britons. Same for the younger people except they could speak English but still no non Asian friends.

    I wish I could say that was unique but it is not. Similar happens all over London away from the centre.

  8. @Mr N

    Cameron’s berween a rock and a hard place on that. Is not moving the writ worse politically than losing a byelection in the GE run-up? And there may well be others following Reckless. I begin to wonder how chreographed this all is, and wonder at the choreography.

  9. @Postage

    Another each month (not including December)? If UKIP have half a dozen, that could one each month as the GE gets going. Is there a cut off when a by-election won’t happen before a general election (other than campaign time)?

  10. The last defection for which a by-election could technically be held before the GE would have to be before March 19th. Of course, no party is going to be stupid enough to call a by-election for the week before the GE.

  11. there is generally a convention that no by-elections take place 6 months before the date by which a general election has to be held…

    MPs will be able to defect in November and not hold a by-election…not moving the writ for a by-elecion is unprecedented in recent history… It may be an option in the minds of UKPR bloggers but it’s not a flyer.

  12. Reckless by name and nature. Cameron needs this like a hole in the head.

  13. i suspect there will be one or two more defections in the next few months…ukip said “2 were in the bag”, of whom reckless was presumably one.

  14. @Pressman

    If it is your avowed goal to stop Ed winning in 2015, circumstances keep making your job much harder.

  15. Reckless got 49.2% of the vote in the 2010 election.

    It seems to be people in safe seats defecting, believing that it will be a cakewalk to get re-elected as UKIP because the Conservatives will not seriously contest those seats.

    @Pressman – UKIP came into being because the press have been banging on about Europe forever. You created them and now you’ve lost control.

  16. Peter Crawford,

    It’s not unprecedented – like I say, it happened in North West Leicestershire in 2009. But it’s certainly unwise.

  17. @Candy,

    Do you really believe that? That if the Tories had just been relentless Europhiles from day one, supported joining the Euro etc then there would be no UKIP?

    People are allowed to have opinions of their own. That the UK has “enjoyed” massive inward migration without anyone being honest with the electorate about it is simply a fact. UKIP (and other populist movements before it) is a response to this fact. The Tories (and their press supporters) have tried to ride the wave, sure, but the wave would have crashed on the beach anyway.

  18. @Pressman

    “Reckless by name….”

    Nah. Too obvious.

    How about “Reckless Hits the Mark” headlining a picture of Cameron with a target photoshopped onto his forehead.

    I leave the choice betwen pointing or not pointing at a fish to the Sun editorial team.

  19. “Tory Conference Train Reck-ed”

  20. @ Postage included

    I don’t understand the reference to “pointing at fishes”, or are you referring to the current and probable next leader of the SNP?

  21. @Mr N

    You’ll have to do better than that if you want to step into Pressman’s shoes, but LOL anyway

  22. Daodao

    I’m fairly ignorant in all matters Welsh, particularly the Welsh language. Any chance you could provide a translation of the quoted Welsh in your previous post?

  23. It seems we’re approaching another watershed moment in the parliament.

    Tory grandees, MPs and party members will already be urging rapprochement with UKIP. UKIP victory in Clacton will accentuate matters and unless DC finds a solution (eg commitment to an EU in/out ref without it being dependent on the outcome of discussions/negotiations with the EU) I can see either more defections from Con to UKIP occurring in the next few months or a challenge to DC’s leadership.

    Really fascinating.

    I cannot help but feel that the ‘unreasonable’ focussing on immigration by the Cons over the last five or so years has created the UKIP monster. This double-edged sword (which I’ve often/repeatedly called this focussing) may yet cut a swathe through the Con party…

  24. @Daodao

    Google “David Cameron pointing at a fish” and you’ll be enlightened.

    Personally I’d make it a condition of further devolution that all First Ministers be named after fish.

  25. @Mike N,

    Cameron has already committed to an In/Out Referendum without it being dependent on the outcome of renegotiation.

    Do you mean unless Cameron switches to commitment to an In/Out Referendum with the Tories voting “Out” regardless of any changes the EU offers to make?

    In other words, Cameron merging the Tories with UKIP.

    Yeah, that could work.

    None of this is about Europe, in my opinion. Cameron has lead the Tories to a more Eurosceptic position than any mainstream UK party since Labour in the 1970s. This is about immigration, and a dislike of “metrosexual”, socially liberal, modern Conservatism.

    I am not really sure what we are seeing is “momentum”. It is carefully timed and stage-managed political shenanigans from a group of right-wing Tories who committed months (if not years) ago to defecting to UKIP. Their objective is a Labour government in 2015, which they hope will be both hopelessly pro-EU and just plain hopeless, leading to a sweeping UKIP conquest in 2020.

    It is, of course, bonkers.

  26. New thread.

  27. @ RiN

    Roughly translated, “O bydded i’r hen iaith barhau” means “O may the old language endure” and the national motto “Cymru am byth” means “Wales forever”.

    With regard to other comments above, the 2011 census in Wales showed that over half the population (57.5%) indicated their sole national identity to be Welsh, with a further 7.1% indicating it to be both Welsh and British. These statistics are slightly lower than those for Scotland, where (in the 2011 Census) 62% of the population stated their national identity as Scottish only and 18% as Scottish and British. Whatever UKPR commenters might think, the majority of people in Scotland and Wales do not identify their nationality as British. By the way, my own ethnic origin is entirely foreign.

  28. Richard in Norway

    The Welsh in daodao’s post is:

    ‘O bydded i’r hen iaith barhau’ – ‘O may the old language [sc. Welsh] endure’. This is the final and most emotional line of the unofficial Welsh nation anthem ‘Land of my fathers’

    ‘Cymru am byth’ – ‘Wales for ever’.

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