We have our usual three Monday polls today:

The weekly Lord Ashcroft poll has topline figures of CON 27%(-6), CON 33%(nc), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 17%(+3), GRN 6%(nc). The drop in Conservative support looks striking, but is probably largely a reversion to the mean after the unusual neck-and-neck Ashcroft poll last week. Tabs are here.

The twice-weekly Populus poll meanwhile has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%. Tabs are here.

Finally the daily YouGov poll for the Sun tonight has toplines of CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%.


704 Responses to “Latest YouGov, Populus and Ashcroft polls”

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  1. Statto

    If you’ve only just noticed that there are lots of anti independence SNP / Green voters then you’re behind the curve.

    I know large numbers of people who are passionate No voters who voted SNP at Holyrood 2011. (And they show up in polling numbers too).

    I can only see them increasing at Holyrood in 2016.

    As I say next year is the big question, and I suspect for these voters it’s not about Tommy/Jim Sillars (they may appeal to the Labour/Yes demographic though) but about trust in Westminster parties to deliver Devo Max.

    They’ll come to a judgment on whether to vote Labour to champion more devolution or whether SNP MPs holding the balance of power in a hung parliament might get a better deal.

    I suspect a lot will come down to Gordon Brown as he is probably the one Scottish Labour politician people still trust to deliver. If it looks like Ed is like warm / sidelining Gordon Brown then it could get sticky for SLab.

  2. Conservatives doing very well in that poll, 60% and Labour seems to have completely collapsed to the point where it’s not in the top 5.

    Maybe the English really don’t like Scotland?

  3. Luke warm Ed was what I was going for there…

  4. Northumbrianscot

    “They’ll come to a judgment on whether to vote Labour to champion more devolution or whether SNP MPs holding the balance of power in a hung parliament might get a better deal.”

    There’s another factor which may come into play.

    While none of the UK parties are committing to “Devo-Max”, the Tory/LD Coalition might decide to put the powers suggested by the LDs into the new Scotland Bill, as opposed to the very minimalist changes proposed by Labour..

    The rationale for that would be that the equivalent powers would be governed by EV4EL in England.

    Such a scenario could have consequences in many constituencies.

  5. When people speak of the need for EVfEL and the need for England to be treated the same as other parts of the UK then, presumably, we’re looking at the creation of a separate English Parliament or Assembly – another layer of government for England – and one that is made up of members chosen by proportional representation. Then each part of the UK would be treated the same. That’s what people want, is it not?

  6. Conservatives a little low I think…

    The posts on this thread from Northumbrianscot certainly give food for thought.

  7. Newhouseset,

    Yes EV4EL can’t have English MPs, elected by FPTP, only sittings in the HoC and I suspect DC and William Hague know this.

    I like your irony and of course any regional or City based assemblies (never a parliament or as many powers as Holyrood) would have to be accompanied by a de-layering and I suspect a smaller HoC and a new federally based revising chamber.

    For the 2015 GE, I am with those who think these issues whilst important will have very little impact outside Scotland – maybe a bit in Wales but I don’t know tbh.

  8. This divisive stuff makes me suspect that the UK has only got a stay of execution.

  9. JIM JAM

    There is absolutely no reason why that cannot happen.

  10. Do the Tory EVEL plans take any account of English Lords for English Laws?

    If the commons is to be split, why not the Lords? There are Scottish Lords, after all.

    Again, it just shows the illogical daftness of the idea.

    I’m also deeply saddened by the lack of intelligence of the PM, who has just told us that he would be ‘heartbroken’ if the union broke up.

    Rather than move towards a sensible, agreed constitutional settlement, he chose to foment unrest in England, targeted specifically at elected representatives of the people of Scotland. What better message of unity could he possibly have sent out ?

  11. An all-England parliament would be a lost opportunity for regions to be freed to design policies and solutions tailored to fit their respective priorities instead of yet more one-size-fits-all blanket legislation.

    (Do we have an independent source for this ‘surge in SNP membership’ or do we have to take the SNP’s word for it?)

  12. SNP at 40% (Lab at 28%) in Scotland. I haven’t seen them that high since November 2012, and even then, Lab were above 30%.

    Smaller than average sample at 175, so pinch of salt. Approval ratings are fairly constant.

  13. @Passepartout

    The Scottish Greens have had a rise too.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-snp-greens-membership-up-1-3547953

    No such claims from Scottish Lib / Lab / Con (yet).

  14. As I argued earlier, it is in the English Tories electoral interest for the UK to break up. Whilst I think most prefer the UK on principle, some will be English Nats. This EV4EL thing starts the psychological idea of Scots being foreigners.

    A further thought recently occurred. If we had a Euro referendum and stayed in on the votes of Scots (or went out on English votes) the UK really would be serious trouble.

  15. I’ve noticed over the past couple of days that Justine Thornton’s name has changed in official correspondence (emails, party press releases) to Justine Miliband.

    Maybe Labour are trying to play up Ed’s “family man” image. Or maybe she’s just changed her name.

  16. @Alec

    I read an article in the Sunday press which quoted a Tory MP, off the record of course, saying that what Cameron would have been was “job-broken” not “heartbroken”. In other words, Cameron was emoting, quasi tearfully, about the impact of Scottish independence on his job prospects rather than expressing genuinely held feelings about the Union

    It sort of rings true, doesn’t it, and certainly reveals how cynically he is regarded in certain sections of the Conservative Party who, I presume, know him far better than the rest of us do?

  17. LURKER

    @”This EV4EL thing starts the psychological idea of Scots being foreigners”

    .:-) :-) :-)

    Perhaps you didn’t notice that this horse has already bolted. lol

  18. TOH

    You & I have to keep reminding ourselves of the rule here:-

    Electoral advantages for Labour are just normal, always been that way, acceptable kind of things.

    Conservatives seeking to redress them are just playing politics in a disgraceful fashion.

    :-)

  19. Over summer one of my Tory friends has turned quite a lot against Cameron, mainly for his perceived bad job in saving the union. I don’t imagine he’s totally unique.

  20. It’s early days and I think it is a bounce that will fade but from the post referendum polls I have seen, Scotland now has the highest indicated turnout rate in the UK for Westminster.

    Ashcroft has it at in my view an unrealistic 81% certain to vote.

    Given that the 75% Referendum turn out in Glasgow was far higher that the usual round about 50% rate from Westminster and up to 40% of Labour voters voted Yes nationally and Glasgow went Yes, I think Labour faces it’s toughest fight in Glasgow in a generation.

    One of the complaints made about SLAB by others in B2T was that for all it’s MP’s it’s organisation on the ground and activist base was moribund and hollowed out.

    I am not sure that was true or just sour grapes and rivalry but it could make for an interesting campaign particularly if former Labour activists have changed sides.

    On of the big dynamics since Devolution has been people voting Labour for Westminster keep the Tories out) and SNP for Holyrood (best for Scotland).

    Whether you agree with either of those votes or the Strategy behind them this could be an election where Scots voters put Scotland’s interests in the UK ahead of their interest in the UK.

    MAY WE LIVE IN INTERESTING TIMES!

    Peter.

  21. Colin

    I think you have just illustrated my point about the attitude some on the right. You should bear in mind in more English favour the union than EV4EL, if polling is to be believed.

    On Cameron’s view, I wonder if he is influenced by Vernon Bogdanor who is of the Great Man school of history. This puts forward a view of history being driven by the individual character of leaders. This might relegate wider concerns to a consequence rather than driver of action. A parallel would be Henry VIII and the church.

  22. Over the summer one of my Labour friends said, of Ed Miliband, “Who?”.

  23. Well Colin I do know some Labour people who aren’t fond of Miliband either, for the sake of balance. I suppose you’ll always have an element of distaste for a party’s leadership within that party.

  24. LURKER

    @”I think you have just illustrated my point about the attitude some on the right. ”

    How?

    @” You should bear in mind in more English favour the union than EV4EL, if polling is to be believed.”

    Until we have a proposal for EVEL , their intelligent question to ask in an OP.
    And favouring The Union , and wishing for equality of democratic franchise are not alternatives to one another.

  25. @PeterCairns
    Fpt
    You had me completely foxed by “Cape Corvo”! I was looking at every aspect of the battle for an analogy with the Indyref – except the date. Had to laugh when I realised.

  26. @maninmiddle – just a reminder to not take too much notice of the cross breaks, other than for swing purposes. The sample sizes are too small to be accurate. As statgeek says – take with a pinch of salt

  27. Colin

    You just made my day, LOL!

    Mind the sad thing is, its not a joke but reality.

    I think Labour are really in deep trouble on the English voting issue but not as deep as the answers in Sundays YouGov..:-

    60% saying EdM would not be up to the job of PM.
    58% saying Labour are not ready for Government.

    and of course you can add the strong Tory lead on the economy.

  28. Another parallel with a proposed Euro referendum of the Scottish vote is that (assuming it was fairly close as Scotland was) is that would it settle the issue?

    If yes, there would be endless arguments about the details of a trade deal. If no, the sceptics would not give up any more the SNP (why should they be expected to if they believe in it anyway?)

  29. ALEC

    Ready your posts, you really do sound undemocratic and anti-English. In reality I doubt your either but thats what that last post looks like.

  30. By the way, gang, there’s a new churn analysis at the bottom of Page 1 for anyone who missed it. Anthony has just released it from auto-mod.

    @ Colin,

    Over the summer one of my Labour friends said, of Ed Miliband, “Who?”.

    Considering Miliband’s favourability polling versus the Labour Party’s, that’s fantastic news.

    (This graph is quite telling: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ByIWCEACAAAdLad.png)

    Do you think we can get more people to forget he exists before polling day?

  31. Labour is behaving as if the West Lothian question has only just been asked. It was first raised in 1977 by a Labour MP and has been quietly buried by Labour ever since. For them to say this is an issue that should be left until after the General Election when they might hope to stack the vote against any change is as unprincipled as their vote not to change the boundaries which gives then a 3 point advantage.

  32. Anyone who is really interested in English democracy rather than the UK should be advocating an English Executive and English Parliament with PR.

  33. @Statgeek
    Thanks for the long post showing variations in polls largely in line with random sampling errors.

  34. Anyone interested in English democracy rather than the UK should ask the English what they want!

    At Holyrood we have a Petitions committee where people can take issues to the Parliament.

    Why not say if people in a particular area (of their choosing not politicians) can get enough signatures for their particular assembly proposal ( geographic area, voting system, powers, etc) then the government will hold a referendum on it and establish it if it’s a Yes.

    Ask people who they want to be governed then pit it in place!

    Peter.

  35. @Lurker

    Anyone who is really interested in English democracy rather than the UK should be advocating an English Executive and English Parliament with PR.

    I suspect that neither Labour nor the Conservatives would want any form of PR.

    They both know FPTP maintains their duopoly, and this is why I would put money on the any Lab/Con proposal being based on FPTP, therefore maintaining their inbuilt advantage.

  36. The HoC is not going to create a rival legislature, least of all one that could claim greater democratic legitimacy. Nor will there be any public appetite for a second body of politicians. Meanwhile EV4EL within the existing structure would be a constitutional nightmare, creating many more anomalies than it solved.

    Devolving powers from Westminster, whether to new regional or existing local bodies is, IMO, the most likely outcome.

  37. EV4EL is not going to be decided before the GE. I have no idea why you’re all still going on about it.

  38. Indeed. Personally, I would be in favour of Sub-National devolution.

    This does kind of show that it cannot be that big a deal for the English otherwise they would be prepared to pay for it.

  39. RogerH – The HoC is not going to create a rival legislature, least of all one that could claim greater democratic legitimacy.

    I agree & the fact the debate around EVEL has been ongoing for many years tells us it is not going to be resolved any time soon & certainly not before May 2015.

    The Tories are increasing the level of divisiveness that has been left by the Scottish referendum for political ends.

    One of the news channels, maybe C4, last night went into a high street & asked members of the public what they thought of the WLQ. They were met with blank stares & cries of ‘What?’

    I think there was polling last week that put EVEL as far down as 5% in the list of priorities.

  40. It’s interesting that, despite the claims from some here than regional devolution is a non-starter because it has no support, many here obviously disagree, as did those people interviewed at random by the BBC in the NE and as do many now putting forward similar views across various blog sites.

    Interesting that Miliband will today be announcing plans to fully social care with the NHS, to boost the former as a means of easing pressure on the latter. Unless this means the wholesale centralisation of social care, the regional level is the only tier at which there could be practical sub-national governanace of this, given that NHS boundaries are so out-of-synch with local authority ones.

    @Passepartout
    “An all-England parliament would be a lost opportunity for regions to be freed to design policies and solutions tailored to fit their respective priorities instead of yet more one-size-fits-all blanket legislation.”

    Indeed. These England-only options are an attempt to close down the devolution momentum rather than to build on it, all for the sake of some short-term political capital.

  41. ….. fully INTEGRATE social care…..

  42. I am always interested in how simple populist claims work out in terms of VI. My feeling, but with no hard data to prove this, is that making a simple claim such as EVFEL can have a positive boost for a couple of months. That is until you have to get down to the detail of what it means.

    In the current debate I can see the Tories picking up a couple of points, initially but as the debate around the concentration of power at Westminster unfolds and questions about the democratic principles of in effect having two houses elected with one vote covering two different types of issues, the gains will be lost.

    On the subject of English MPs voting on English issues what happens if the government of the day disagrees with the outcome of a vote, do you they call a vote of no confidence in their own government because it is unable to deliver the policies on which it was elected?

    If there is to be a separate chamber/body to pass English laws then it is very possible that electors will vote differently for people to represent them on English issues than on UK issues, making the current proposals very undemocratic.

    The only solution in my mind is for the creation of a regional tier of government with the same powers, including tax raising and spending powers offered to the Scots. This tier would replace County Councils and the House of Lords, as it could meet as a single uk wide revising chamber.

    To argue that regions would be to small to have the full powers devolved to Scotland would not hold water as a three region option would leave the English regions larger than the whole of Scotland.

    Just a few thoughts and I am certain that there are plenty on here who will pull my suggestions apart, but it is just that level of debate which is needed to get this right and as that debate picks up speed any party or leader who has based the initial policy on sound bite politics, runs a very great risk of not only giving up the short term gains but of doing significant damage to themselves. The question is has the current EVFEL promise started the debate off to early for the Tories short term boost to hold to next May, or will it result in a bounce big enough to return them to power?

  43. Per what I said earlier about party membership, I came across this:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ByK8S3HCcAA5a2X.jpg:large

    So is it a reflection of popularity, or just a reflection on how unpopular parties in general are, that a regional, ‘separatist’ party can be this ‘popular’?

  44. “60% saying EdM would not be up to the job of PM.
    58% saying Labour are not ready for Government.”

    They only need 35% for a majority though…

  45. @Spearmint

    Thanks much for the churn stuff – I’ll be laughing a long time about Ed Balls’ offer of “austeriy-but-with-Gove-jokes”. Unappealing, but a lot better than “Gove-with-austerity-jokes” nevertheless.

  46. Statgeek,

    As I said, I wouldn’t be overly surprised if the SNP take North East Fife at Westminster, but they are very far behind the LDs and it has never been an area in which the SNP has done well at Westminster. What I find very unlikely is the idea of Labour or the Tories taking it.

  47. I don’t think EV4EL has any resonance at all, except on the tory/ukip boundary…I was struck by the fact that today only the telegraph are leading on it, the sun, daily mail and others already seem bored by it.

    The narrative will change with UKIP gaining their first seat in parliament in a couple of weeks’ time.

  48. One corrective to my previous post is the shambolic nature of the labour response which seems uncertain, confused and panicky…but then again we know that about them.

  49. I don’t think it’s necessary for English regional devolution to exactly match Scottish devolution. Not everything will fit so neatly but it should be accepted that there will always be anomalies.

  50. @Statgeek: “So is it a reflection of popularity, or just a reflection on how unpopular parties in general are, that a regional, ‘separatist’ party can be this ‘popular’?”

    It’s a reflection of how a referendum campaign can raise the profile of a party. Does it really matter? The Tory Party at one time had an enormous membership (almost three million c.1950) but it was more about socialising than politics.

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