We have our usual three Monday polls today:

The weekly Lord Ashcroft poll has topline figures of CON 27%(-6), CON 33%(nc), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 17%(+3), GRN 6%(nc). The drop in Conservative support looks striking, but is probably largely a reversion to the mean after the unusual neck-and-neck Ashcroft poll last week. Tabs are here.

The twice-weekly Populus poll meanwhile has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%. Tabs are here.

Finally the daily YouGov poll for the Sun tonight has toplines of CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%.


704 Responses to “Latest YouGov, Populus and Ashcroft polls”

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  1. John Murphy,
    I absolutely agree with your sensible and reasoned post.

  2. That Survation poll shows 2010 Lib Dems as exactly the same as 2010 Labour voters in how they see Ed’s speech – very positive. That, as has not escaped our notice on here, is exactly what he needs to do.

  3. Just read this on my facebook page whilst feeling very low from various pains.

    “Great photo of you Paul, in what way do you find beneficial having the additional string? I have come across thousands of guitarists and guitar players over the past 40yrs and maybe half a dozen has that something special a bit more than competant and you are one of them.”

    Its in reaction to a new photo with my seven-string guitar but is the nicest thing I have ever read someone say about me and I am sharing it because it occurred to me that we should all offer positive opinions far more than we actually do.

    I was so touched that I have not corrected his spelling – I’ll do that later.

  4. It’ll be interesting whether the conferences have their usual effect on the polls…not much!

  5. @TOH:

    No one doubts that private healthcare is mostly excellent on an individual basis (though poor at treating chronic and mental illnesses while it largely ignores emergency response). It’s also very expensive.

    France spends 11.6% of GDP on healthcare compared to the UK’s 7.1% so it should be better.

  6. Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 5s
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead down three to four points: CON 33%, LAB 37%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%

  7. Today’s Yougov Labour 37%, Conservative 33%.

    Anyone know how much of polling, if any, after speech?

  8. YouGov:

    LAB – 37% (-1)
    CON – 33% (+2)
    UKIP – 13% (-2)
    LDEM – 7% (=)

    Possible reversion to mean, the seven pointer was a bit big.

  9. The speech wasn’t a disaster, but on reflection it was a huge missed opportunity for Ed. Forgetting the economy doesn’t look very PM like. It’s probably short up the 35% though.

  10. Mr N
    What was that Survation poll you were mentioning please? Today was it? I suppose it had to be today (‘Back to the Future’ otherwise).

  11. I have no real knowledge of healthcare and it’s funding but thought I’d offer my 2 penny’s worth anyway. One thing that seems to be being missed in the NHS vs private is the issue of volume. I’d expect waiting times to be longer on the NHS because they’ll deal with a lot more people than the private provisioners will.

    As to the NHS itself the trouble with reducing waiting tomes is there are only really three ways to do it: 1) shorter appointments with more emphasis on self help/pills (there is, after all, a reason why CBT is just about the only thing provided); 2) greater efficiency in treatment; and 3) expansion of staff.

    The problem with one is it obviously means diagnosis is can be rushed and miss things (compounded by the fact that the doctors can be overworked and tired), which isn’t good. The problem with the other two is it requires more funding and time (time to train people and potentially investing in treatments that will turn out not to work).

    There are a lot of complexities and difficulties that I think politicians just don’t understand. Consequently they like simple solutions and privatization is the simplest of them (they can also be lured by seeing greater efficiency in private care without questioning whether the comparison is valid for the demographics of the sectors).

    Private care is important for a lot of reasons and it works well at what it does. But it’s wrong to conclude that the NHS should therefore be privatized or that competition should be introduced into it to make it run more like a private organization. The NHS and the private care need to work in tandem with one another, non competitively. The priority should always be the care of the patients – hence why it is beneficial to take things slowly and carefully when reforming. Would that politicians were capable of such long term thought and appreciation for subtleties of the issue.

    As a last point wholesale overall would not be possible. It’s the problem of path dependence: now that we have the system we have it would be too costly to fundamentally alter it. Any proposals theerefore have to centre around evolution, not revolution.

  12. Howard,

    It’s the one RAF linked to at 8:15. Done post-speech, so last night.

  13. I find this forgetting the deficit thing,very very odd.Why on earth didn’t they go
    with the explanation Andy Burnham gave when confronted with old Brillo Pad,
    immediately after the speech.That Ed Balls had already spoken about this
    the day before.To say he had forgotten was not far short of idiocy.

  14. RICH.
    Good Evening to you; I agree with you about the speech by Ed M.
    A perceptive BBC journalist pointed out that the speech did not go ‘toe to toe’ with the Government on the economy. Tony Blair took on the Conservatives on ‘their’ ground.

  15. “”I think this is the first conference speech I’ve ever watched and I hope it will be my last.”

    Gareth of Hampstead Heath fame.

    You really could not make this stuff up.

    :-) :-) :-)

  16. Can’t help feeling there might have been a bit of schoolboy cleverness about the speech. He forgot to mention the deficit and immigration, in front of a Labour audience, but it was in the handouts for the press.

    I wonder…….

  17. ANN IN WALES

    Except that :-

    a) He said he “left it out”-like he leaves lots of bits out & puts other bits in when he gets up to speak.

    b) Angela Eagles actually read out from an autocue the section of the speech on Deficit & Immigration which Ed left out. I could not believe that AN actually persuaded her to to do it :-)

  18. ALEC

    You seem to be suggesting one message for the Brothers & the Labour faithfull-and another message for the rest of us.

    Which begs the question-which one is the truth ?

  19. @Statgeek – earlier, I noticed you had posted something on Scottish pensions to the effect that early deaths meant this was less of an issue for Scotland.

    Although I think you said this in jest, in part at least, it is a view I have heard nationalists put forward in all seriousness. Unfortunately, apart from premature death not being very funny, it’s also wrong, in the context of saving Scottish pensions.

    The problem Scotland has is not that everyone dies on average younger than in the UK as a whole. Once Scottish people get to pension age, they are more or less as likely to live to the UK normal age as elsewhere in the UK.

    What brings down the Scottish average age of death are the high number of deaths of certain age cohorts in some parts of the country. The biggest problem is in death rates of 40 – 50 year olds – ie working age people.

    This is why SNP pension policy statements were very difficult to reconcile with reality. Scottish workers are dying early, not pensioners. This has a double effect in reducing earnings alongside increased pension demands.

    @Peter Cairns is absolutely correct that over time, steps could be taken that may solve the problems, but equally things outside government control could also make the situation worse – such as younger workers heading south.

    The bottom line, as with most things about independence, is that things could get better, but the starting assumptions of Yes/SNP were highly misleading and unrealistic.

  20. Colin

    “which one is the truth ?”

    Probably the one not in either the spoken or written forms of the speech.

  21. @Colin – that’s the schoolboy cleverness bit! He wasn’t giving out two conflicting messages – he just didn’t tell one lot what the message was.

    Ha!

  22. @anarchistsUnite

    There’s nothing remotely efficient about private healthcare.

  23. @Colin – BTW – it’s ‘comrades’, not ‘brothers’.

    I know you Tories are still a bit 1950’s, but these days wimmin get involved in politics, work, cycling etc too.

  24. “b) Angela Eagles actually read out from an autocue the section of the speech on Deficit & Immigration which Ed left out. I could not believe that AN actually persuaded her to to do it”

    Did he really ? What an extraordinarily unpleasant thing for a grown man to do to a woman, any woman.

    Imagine the howls if he had done that to a Tory woman – doubt there would be many :) :) :) at that !

  25. It was the most boring leaders speech I have ever watched. No passion, no ideas, just a succession of soundbites, digs at the tories, poor jokes and a motherhood and apple pie 10 year plan, with no indication of how it will be achieved. Even Stalin only needed 5 year plans. Compare that with Blair’s conference pre 1997 election conference speech, or indeed any other labour leader’s conference speech in the last 40 years.

    Does anyone truly think that this guy will be PM for 10 years?

  26. If we’re sharing anecdotes, while out canvassing tonight I knocked on the door of an elderly BME woman who voted UKIP in 2010. My immediate thought was that she’d play merry hell with the weightings in any opinion poll, like our semi-legendary Welsh woman who gave the BNP 4%.

  27. I note that after all the froth and slaver over the weekend, EVEL has gone to ground (both on here and in the media). Real news intervening? Or merely the froth evaporating in the autumn air?

    Either way, I shall miss it. Like I’d miss a ground-glass enema.

  28. Just watched Harry Smith’s speech to the Labour Conference earlier today. 91 years old, the same age as my Dad, he spoke about the impact that the creation of the NHS had on his life and those of millions of others of his generation. Eloquent, beautifully delivered and intensely moving.

    Best speech of this or any other Conference season by a country mile, and I can say that with absolute confidence even though there are two conferences still to take place this year.

    “I came into this world in the rough and ready year of 1923. I’m from Barnsley, and I can tell you that my childhood, like so many others from that era, was not like an episode from Downton Abbey. Instead, it was a barbarous time, it was a bleak time, and it was an uncivilised time, because public health care didn’t exist.”

    Hospitals, doctors and medicine were for “the privileged few, because they were run by profit”, he said.

    “My memories stretch back almost a hundred years, and if I close my eyes, I can smell the poverty that oozes from the dusty tenement streets of my boyhood,” he added.

    “Today, we must be vigilant, we must be vocal, we must demand that the NHS must always remain an institution for the people and by the people.”

    “We must never ever let the NHS free from our grasp, because of we do, your future will be my past.”

    Wonderful, wonderful stuff. It’s why I still believe in the power of politics because the life-enhancing transformation to Harry’s life was delivered by politics.

    Keep the faith everyone. It’s still a noble pursuit at heart.

  29. MOG

    The troops are heading off to sort out yet another pressing problem.

    [Whether one exists or not………………..]

  30. @Dogs

    At least they aren’t sending the drones over Manchester yet. (Just droning on about it).

  31. It’s probably been raised on here already, but one observation left from the referendum vote struck me very forcibly. I will bring this to mind every time I hear someone say they are certain about anything to do with the next election, or any election, come to that.

    We were told constantly that the Yes vote was more energized, more committed, had a superior get out the vote campaign, and was far more likely to head to the polling stations on the day. This was fact.

    As it turned out, entirely the reverse seems to have been the case. The Yes vote appears to have been softer and less prepared to turn out, with the lowest turnouts in the areas that voted Yes, and high turnouts reflecting big No voting areas.

    I suppose it might be plausible that Yes won in Glasgow because No voters there stayed at home, but this seems unlikely. It would appear that what we knew as fact, was plainly wrong.

    So whenever anyone says X or Y will happen in the next 7 months, it’s perhaps worth recalling the soft Yes vote.

  32. Sorry, I know it is late and it is blindingly obvious , but who is AN?

  33. @Crossbat

    The old men always tend to give the best speeches. I remember some absolutely brilliant oratory from Manny Shinwell and Fenner Brockway to conference in days gone by.

    They had to learn oratory via soapboxes in noisy factory yards, not powerpoint presentations in plush corporate offices.

  34. AiW
    Andrew Neill I believe.

  35. AN is Andrew Neil aka Brillo

  36. Crossbat,
    An excellent post.Recently in Greece I was standing in the queue behind a man who was collecting three packets of pills.They cost him the equivalent of
    £180 pounds.Thank God for the NHS.

  37. The main thing to watch for May 2015 is, hardly surprisingly, Tory poll figures.

    For September’s 13 YG polls they are so far a smidge over 32%.

    A majority government just waiting for the electorate to see sense? I don’t think so Missis.

    What seems more and more possible is that it will become obvious to everybody that they can’t win and that the post GE battles will start early, PRE GE in fact, alongside even more open crossing over to UKIP.

  38. I find that Survation poll quite astonishing.

    Every age group, every region, every party and both sexes support every one of the policies put forward by EM.

    The single exception is that 2010 Cons oppose breaking up the banks, and even that not by a huge margin.

    Is this some kind of record?

  39. Guy

    It has always been my view that EM/Labour have been working very seriously to develop policies that make sense and will be popular.

    Time, as everybody say, will tell but the p’man mantra that a concerted and nasty attack by the media, directed specifically at Miliband, would rescue the Tories and catapult them to a win has never struck me as very convincing or, from my perspective, very worrying.

  40. R and D,
    I hope you are right.
    Guy Monde,
    It may be astonishing but it is also rather nice.

  41. @Guy @AinW @Dogs

    I like it too… but conference will be two days froth and slaver (like EVEL), to evaporate in the autumn air.

    If Labour can establish a CONSISTENT 6 point lead by Christmas, then it’s done and dusted. Otherwise all hangs on the events of April/May.

    It’s Labour’s to lose. But it feels very 1974ish to me.

  42. @MOG

    Yes I agree any poll boost (even if there is one) may be transitory, and that this amazing support may not translate even into a transitory boost.

    But over 60% of tories supporting the mansion tax?!?

  43. @Guy

    The homes of a lot more than 60% of tories are worth well less than £2m. Introduce proper progressive taxation – not window-dressing like this – and (unfortunately) everybody squeals, labour and tory voters alike.

  44. … and incidentally, I live in a £350k house, and the household income (salaries and pensions) is about £40k after tax.

    We don’t pay enough tax. Nor do any of the comfortably-off baby boomers. So we don’t get decent public services anymore.

  45. mog

    I thought a mansion house was rubbish when LDs thought it up and I still do.

  46. I can’t see why they don’t add a few higher Council Tax bands. At present isn’t every E&W property rated above £320,001 pays the same (although I know that’s not market rate).

  47. (Minus isn’t).

  48. Well, I am a 2010 LD voter and I like Ed M and I like the policies he mentioned in the speech, if I was going to vote Lab in 2015, Ed M and those policies would be the reasons

  49. ROBERT

    No.

    Even 5 is hard to envisage.

    It is Burnham who frightens me though.

  50. ….actually Robert, after reading the comments from inside Labour of the “chaos” surrounding EM, and that speech , I’m beginning to have more faith that he won’t see 5 years out :-)

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