The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is up here and has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5%. There are some questions on the political leaders (particularly Ed Miliband in advance of this week’s Labour conference), but they show the usual pattern – David Cameron is more trusted than Ed Miliband on the Conservatives’ strong issues like law and order and the economy, Ed Miliband does better on Labour’s strong issues like the NHS. Ed Miliband’s own ratings remain mediocre.

On the Scottish referendum 32% think David Cameron handled it well, 54% badly. 25% think Ed Miliband handled the referendum well, 48% badly. Asked about English devolution 71% of people thought that Scottish MPs should not be able to vote on issues that affect only England (including the majority of Scottish respondents in the poll), 15% of people thought they should. On the Barnett formula there was a predictable result – English respondents thought it should be scrapped and Scottish funding reduced, Scottish respondents that it shouldn’t.

Survation also had a poll out today and found similar levels of support for some sort of re-arrangement of the constitution for England: 65% said that Scottish MPs should by banned from voting on English laws at Westminster, 59% would support an English Parliament. There is a crucial caveat though – Survation also asked what the top priority should be for the government – 31% said immigration, 20% the economy, 9% jobs, 9% public services, 6% combating terrorism and down on 5% constitutional reform. Don’t look at polls showing large majorities supporting English votes on English Laws and assume it also means people think the issue is urgent or important. It only means support is widespread, not that people necessarily think it should be a priority.


455 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 31, LAB 36, LD 7, UKIP 16”

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  1. Forward!

  2. Meanwhile, Peter Kellner wants to know if rogue journalism has cost the Mail its reputation: http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/21/has-rogue-journalism-cost-mail-sunday-its-reputati/

    Er… isn’t that a given? They were publishing pieces of fried chicken that looked like Great Britain without Scotland and asking if it was an omen a few days ago.

  3. NICK P.
    Forward to which destination, Nick?

  4. I feel sorry for the poor English MP’s, already they have a much higher workload than Scottish MP’s while being paid exactly the same. But now it looks like they will be expected to do two jobs while getting paid for only one.

  5. “David Cameron is more trusted than Ed Miliband on the Conservatives’ strong issues like law and order and the economy, Ed Miliband does better on Labour’s strong issues like the NHS. Ed Miliband’s own ratings remain mediocre.”

    Bring on Jim Murphy I say!

    “On the Scottish referendum 32% think David Cameron handled it well, 54% badly. 25% think Ed Miliband handled the referendum well, 48% badly. Asked about English devolution 71% of people thought that Scottish MPs should not be able to vote on issues that affect only England (including the majority of Scottish respondents in the poll), 15% of people thought they should. On the Barnett formula there was a predictable result – English respondents thought it should be scrapped and Scottish funding reduced, Scottish respondents that it shouldn’t.”

    Tough crowd! The guy can’t get a break can he? I mean, Big Society was a whole bunch of crap. I mean, he was basically trying to eat soup with a fork. And his economic ideas are and have been pure insanity. But, why negative feeling over the referendum? The vote lost. He helped save the union. And he was willing to be self-depricating and cede campaign ground to Labour and his former opponent Gordon Brown in order to do it. I thought he was nothing less than a statesman during the whole thing.

    People might be critical of him for allowing the vote in the first place and allowing the vote to be conducted simply by Scots. But frankly, I thought he demonstrated the best traditions of what it meant to be both British and English.

    Now….his performance afterwards leaves a little to be desired. But again, cut the guy some slack. He’s in uncharted territory here and he’s got other major things on his plate too (ISIS).

  6. The Mail had a reputation? Anyway, a wee bit (as our renewed comrades might say) of fluctuation in the polls at the moment. Labour score staying still, seems mainly to be the Cons and UKIP shifting around.

    Must say, if Labour have a good conference then the Cons will have to play a blinder because straight after theirs the sword of Douglaces will descend.

    Incidentally, went to a party last night and to my surprise everyone was talking about the Referendum and politics. Bunch of Greens (they’re students) but most intending to vote Labour in May since “They’re not that different and they can win”. Some Tories, no Lib Dems. About 50/50 for Yes and No.

  7. @ Richard in Norway

    “I feel sorry for the poor English MP’s, already they have a much higher workload than Scottish MP’s while being paid exactly the same. But now it looks like they will be expected to do two jobs while getting paid for only one.”

    What do they get paid? Frankly, I think politicians here don’t get paid enough. We should raise their pay and raise their perks. California State Legislators currently make only 92k a year, receive no pension, and don’t even have control over their own salaries (independent commission can change things at any time). Combined with term limits (all these reforms enacted in 1990 as part of a conservative governmental fantasy that has totally f**ked up the state), is it any wonder that we pretty much only get complete morons, party hacks, and criminals (and occasionally the idle rich) who are interested in serving? Is it any wonder that those sometimes are the only people who can serve? I mean, we set it up so there isn’t incentive for people to go and do it.

    Anyway, Cameron’s solutions here sound rushed and as if he hasn’t thought about asking others for their opinion. Why not bring in someone Scottish to advise on this as well? Like, as in “hey, Nicola, how the f do we set this s**t up so it actually works?”

    Here’s a question. What kind of authority does the Mayor of London have? And what kinds of authority does the London Assembly have? Perhaps the issues they have governance over might be a place to start for figuring out English Devolution.

  8. I like the simplicity & cost free aspects of EVEL, but it does present a couple of problems :- The status of Scottish MPs who are Ministers , and the certainty of the speaker being able to certify what is an “English Law”.

    An article in ST today harks back to a Glastonian solution re NI-reducing the number of Scottish MPS , and dropping the restriction on voting. This would also address the EM response to EVEL about “two classes of MP”.

    Quite like it .

  9. I am sort of thinking Labour will probably win in May now, but it won’t be any left wing Govt. Too many things to deal with in terms of constitution issues and probably a huge amount of foreign policy challenges.

  10. “15% of respondents agreed that MP’s of Scottish should vote on English only matters”

    Judging by the debate on the last thread, that 15% are all on UKPR.

    SOCAL, What is your fixation with Jim Murphy? I think he’s a good bloke and I quite like him and whilst Brown is getting the plaudits for saving the No vote, I actually think that Murphy had far more commitment and was far more effective, not even being put off by SNP bullying. Brown didn’t get off his backside and do anything until near the end. But Prime Minister Murphy, no, he is far too nice a chap.

  11. Press man

    why would you want to give up a good and interesting job to stack shelves? I might consider stacking shelves if it was paying 50 quid an hour but even then I think I’d die of boredom

  12. Perhaps there is a problem with the way most people look at polls. YG can say they were right all along. That a month or so ago No had a huge lead. That in the final couple of weeks that evaporated and there was even a small Yes lead. That the polls them stabilised at No+2 to +4. And that in the last 48 hours or so there was a swing to No which YG’s exit picked up.

    And we will never know whether all of these polls were accurate or not, apart from the exit-type poll which was pretty accurate. It is entirely plausible that Yes held the lead when YG said it did. But then again it is equally plausible that this never happened.

    The problem is that the UK party leaders panicked at the possibility of a Yes vote and we all know what happened next.

    But whether YG was wrong or right it cannot be held accountable for the reaction of politicians. Particularly those taking one poll in isolation. There is also the question of whether the same politicians should have been more interested earlier in the fate of Scotland and presented better thought through plans and timescales for delivery some months before the vote.

  13. Oops i replied to a post which has disappeared, now i look like a complete dork

  14. @ Colin,

    I doubt the Scots will be interested in an arrangement that allows their MPs to vote on English education bills they don’t care about but reduces their voice in choosing the Prime Minister, matters of war and peace, etc.

    @ Neil A,

    See? See? People are suggesting it! :p

  15. @SOCALLIBERAL

    “Now….his performance afterwards leaves a little to be desired. But again, cut the guy some slack. He’s in uncharted territory here and he’s got other major things on his plate too (ISIS).”

    ISIS isn’t a big issue here.Cameron was basically crap during the referendum,and like AS said everytime he opened his mouth he gifted yes more votes.Cameron trying to be the statesman over people he basically supported fighting in Syria in the first place,and was quite willing to blow people to bits for them (ISIS) is farcical at best.Syria must look at DC and think what a plumb.Putin looks like he knew the situation there far better then british intelligence,and the rebels (ISIS) were terrorists in the first place.He has a lot on on his plate ,but didn’t stop him trying to play a blinder the day after the referendum,with constitutional reform for England.

  16. So when do the Conservatives catch and over take Labour? Isn’t there some sort of incumbency thing where the Government of the day increases its vote as we get closer to an election? And then as get even close (last few weeks) the opposition gains more votes?

    It’s getting quite exciting, certainly more exciting than the Scottish referendum (apologies to Scotland). which in my neck of the world no one talked about, mind to be fair I actually had my first debate about the up and coming election last night in the pub, so were hardly talking about that either.
    Which makes all this talk of English MP’s voting on English issues interesting in that no one I know actually is interested (not that means everyone feels the same).

    Cheers R&D.

  17. Why am I in moderation for that ?

  18. An article in MoS by the author of the Barnett Formula, who says it is out of date, needs replacing; and that the three party leaders had “no right” to promise that it would stay in place .He seems pretty cross.

    I think this was the main flaw resulting from the panic.

    The official response in interviews seems to be that as Holyrood takes more ( ?all) tax raising powers , Barnett’s effect will “fade”.

    I’m not familiar enough with the mechanism to comment on that. Does it mean that the block grant reduces in proportion to any increase in Scottish taxes over UK levels?

  19. Colin – I there is a genuine dilema of course the old West Lothian question; I have read some (all would have been impossible) comments over the last day or 2 on here and now have a tentative view.

    (At it’s best this site can help form opinions).

    The big flaw in EV4EL is the FPTP element of Westminster Elections v devolved parts of the country.

    Sittings for English only MPs really is a non starter imo because of this.

    Do we really want another layer of Government, I suspect an English Parliament centralising in Westminster and being SEast dominated even if it sat in the North would not be supported in a referendum in England.

    I have long been a supporter of proper regional Government (The NE proposal was weak and too soon) and the optimist in me hopes that we can move to a de-centralised England but the pessimist has me expecting sclerosis as the poiltical parties try to engineer benefit for themselves above national interest.

  20. @ Richard in Norway,

    Yes, now you look like big a dork, not when you made the decision to spend your Sunday on a polling discussion forum. :p

  21. SPEARMINT

    Yes-that’s the trouble with this stuff-there is always someone who has a grievance.

    It is a minefield.

  22. Ed On Mar promising 8 pounds an hour minimum wage by end of next parliament
    ,16-17 year olds to get the vote,Devo Max for Scotland and repeal of the NHS bill.Just needs to win now,which looks quite possible.

  23. JIM JAM

    @”The big flaw in EV4EL is the FPTP element of Westminster Elections v devolved parts of the country.”

    The Welsh, NI & Scottish devolved administrations are elected with FPTP elements.

    In any event, surely any mechanism proposed to give English voters more say ( as EVEL does) should be decided by English voters. If they are happy with 100% FPTP then it can’t be a “flaw”.

    @”Do we really want another layer of Government, I suspect an English Parliament centralising in Westminster and being SEast dominated even if it sat in the North would not be supported in a referendum in England.”

    No-and I agree.

    @”I have long been a supporter of proper regional Government”

    Fair enough-I haven’t.
    But the main thing is that English voters should say what they want.

    …………by the way , I hate this headlong rush to fragmentation & post code lottery. But with the Scots , Welsh & Norther Irish demanding more devolution , what can one do-or the English will be left with nothing.

  24. He won’t be winning Shaun, once the frustrating distraction of Clacton is out of the way, the focusing of minds of who we want to lead Britain will really begin.

    Miliband was on the establishment business side of the Scotland campaign, over the coming months he is going to find himself on the other side of the machine that will be a daily bombardment.

  25. I have this suspicion that for the Tories to remain in office now will requite something inordinately good to happen for the government. A continuation of current growth/employment changes won’t shift sufficient voters in my view. An astonishing hold in Clacton or massive oil reserves found off the coast of Essex might save them, but if Ed can keep the ship relatively steady until May he’s likely to be home and dry.

    The really interesting question is what kind of government he will lead, because none of us really know. Nor should it be appraised on here, but a bit of healthy speculation may not go amiss so long as based on evidence.

  26. Colin – yes if English voters vote for a FPTP system to allow their representatives to take the same kind of decisions that MSPs make.
    However, just having English MPs sit for English business does this without a mandate – any move to this would have be approved in an referendum in England and I don’t see that happening as the ABT vote (even in just England as a whole is too strong.

    Some other posters may be able to confirm from first hand knowledge, whilst I am going on reports, that PR was introduced in Scotland as at the time (odd that it seems now|) using FPTP was felt to lead to a Labour administrations in perpetuity.
    (Same for Wales)

    Conservatives in England need to recognise, as Labour did in Scotland in the constitutional convention, that FPTP is unacceptable for any EV4EL settlement.

  27. @SOCALLIBERAL:

    “California State Legislators currently make only 92k a year…”

    In New Hampshire, following an increase in 1889, they receive $100 pa.

    I’m always rather puzzled when people claim that ordinary people will be deterred from entering politics by its miserly rewards. By any normal standards they receive a pretty generous salary and perks.

  28. Pressman he’s been bombarded from day one and people aren’t listening to the press anymore imo.

  29. The LibDem Scottish Secretary has disowned Gove’s insistence that Scottish devolution must go ‘hand-in-hand’ with wider UK reforms.

  30. Terrific post Spearmint. Thanks for explaining the implications of Westminster doubling up as the English Parliament.
    I think it can only work if the English Parliament is physically separate from Westminster. Why not in the North?
    Manchester? Ok I’m biased. But why not? We’ve got the BBC and if the high speed rail link comes off…

  31. Pete, it won’t be just the press. It will be business and celebrities. The latter will be important in influencing the younger voters – ‘if Miliband wins I will leave the country’ etc…

  32. “If Miliband wins I will leave the country”

    Is that a promise?

  33. Pressman

    I recall Phil Collins in The Sun in the 80s threatening to leave the country if Labour were elected.

    Who’ve you got lined up this time to tip the yoof vote? Rick Wakeman? Mick Jagger?

  34. Didn’t Paul Daniels threaten to leave if Labour won in 1997?

    I don’t think the Conservatives are likely to win many votes of young people with the kind of celebrity endorsements they could attract – even if such things make the slightest difference.

  35. @ Colin,

    by the way, I hate this headlong rush to fragmentation & post code lottery

    For once we are in complete agreement. I think it’s just modernity at work, though- people are so used to getting their own way all the time as consumers that they’ve become less willing to tolerate rule by a party they don’t like, so they want to break everything down into smaller and smaller units to create a more homogenous body politic, and screw everyone trapped outside the blessed circle. Solidarity and the national good seem to be lost concepts.

  36. Not me Roger, but it’s a weapon we have lined up against the left wing social media influence over young voters. If their favourite celeb hates Miliband then it might stop voting Labour, and we have a good few lined up.

    This campaign will be absolutely no holds barred.

  37. @VALERIE

    The other issue with an English Parliament, IMO, is that it doesn’t devolve any power to a more local level. We just end up paying for two parliaments to do what was previously done by one.

  38. Aw, look, Pressman believes the youth still read newspapers. Bless!

  39. Please, please let Gary Barlow quit the UK.

  40. @Spearmint

    Pressman believes young people vote.

  41. @PRESSMAN

    “Not me Roger,”

    ‘Do as I say, not as I do’, you mean? Not sure why you think anyone will care where celebrities live or who they vote for, though.

  42. COLIN

    The trouble with reducing the number of Scottish MPs is they will then be under-represented on all those matters that will still be decided at a UK level (Foreign, Defence, most economic issues).

    Like you say, every solution to this problem seems to throw up another problem – I think of what Ben Affleck said in the film Argo – “there are no good options, only bad ones – we just have to come up with the least bad one!”

  43. It will be about engaging young people – look at the numbers who take part in X Factor etc.. voting, who if they are look at politics at all are likely to do so on some left-wing internet/social media site.

    We need to redress the balance. And though ageing rockers will generally not be on the agenda, we have a former Labour supporter who is now a Tory lined up.

  44. Pressman and Richard in Norway.

    My two favourite correspondents.

    Richard got a question for you. How do you think the Lib/Dems will perform in the Clacton by-election?

  45. UB40 also threatened to leave if the tories won again, “if it happens again, I’m leaving…….”

    didn’t help much

  46. Allan

    are they standing? didn’t think they could afford to lose any more deposits

  47. “Who’ve you got lined up this time to tip the yoof vote? Rick Wakeman? Mick Jagger?”

    Lol.

    There’s always Cilla Black, Michael Caine and Jimmy Tarbuck, I suppose, now poor old Kenny Everett’s slipped off this mortal coil.

    Actually, I’ve just had a thought. Do you remember Clint Eastwood’s hilarious turn at the Republican Convention when he did that spoof interview with an empty chair, suggesting he was talking to Obama? Couldn’t Michael Caine do something similar at this year’s Tory Conference? He could address a vacant chair in much the same way as Eastwood did, asking an invisible Miliband some searching, killer questions. “Mr Miliband, am I right in thinking you want to blow the bloody doors off our border controls and return us to the days of uncontrolled immigration?” He’ll then feigns no response from Miliband, the audience now laughing uncontrollably. “You see, no answer from Red Ed”, he’ll then go on to say, ” and that’s what’s going to happen under Labour again. Not many people know that and it’s your job to tell ’em.”

    Cue standing ovation.

    :-)

  48. The question I have is why do we need Scottish MP’s at Westminster period? If all they extra powers are coming and the majority who voted no do expect some sort of devo max then what is the point having Scottish MP’s in Westminster?

    Surely if a vote on wither we go to war or not could be taken from all the parliaments across the UK and the same would go for any other legislation affecting the whole UK!

  49. Well, Gordon Brown had a PPB with two Doctor Whos and a son of a Doctor Who and still lost.

    Phil Collins now denies ever being a Tory.

    Gary Barlow might not be the best endorser given his tax affairs.

    Which other celebs might impress da yoof? Jim Davidson?

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