As people have reported and grumbled, there is no proper exit poll tonight for the Scottish referendum (the defining feature of an exit poll is that it’s done outside actual polling stations as people exit. They are very expensive, and no one commissioned one!). We are hence going to have to wait for the actual results.

The only 10pm polling news we have is that YouGov did a recontact of the people who took part in their final poll during the day today to check for any late swing – amongst those people they did find some movement from YES to NO since the final polling, producing a final YouGov prediction of YES 46%, NO 54% (details are here). Lord Ashcroft also apparently did some polling during the day asking about people’s reasons for voting how they did – those results will be out tomorrow.

Given we aren’t likely to have any proper result for six or seven hours I’m going to catch some sleep and then wake up for some real results, but feel free to discuss the early results as they come in here.


389 Responses to “Scotland results thread”

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  1. Because the figures weren’t right…it’s 42 yes, 58 no

  2. *sorry, RAF is right, it’s 41, 59 in Aberdeen

  3. my mistake thanks for correction

  4. It’s looking like a 55/45 No win.

  5. Must say I’ve felt quite emotional seeing the joy of the Scots who have been cheering the fact that they are remaining part of this great Union.

    Its very touching.

  6. Glasgow Yes (sky sources)

  7. N Lanarkshire
    .yes 115783
    No 110922

  8. Ah I’ve lost the count. Too many results coming in. No has won.

  9. It’s ironic that when no wins they start cheering ‘yeeeess!!’

  10. Perth and Kinross

    Yes 41475
    No 62714

    S Lanarkshire

    Yes 100990
    No 121800

  11. I’m going to be to get two hour’s sleep!

    I expect that Edinburgh will be 60/40 to No (per Amber); and that Glasgow will be 55/45 for Yes.

  12. Glasgow is 54% Yes (sky)

  13. Silent majority,eh?

  14. Glasgow

    Yes: 194779
    No: 169347

    53/47 to Yes

  15. Labour on the estates?
    of course it is a big challenge but the balance or more than balance is that the SNP have done best in areas they do poorly in other elections and have taken thumpings in what are often described in the media as their heartlands. Must they now decide whether they are a left wing party fighting in the poorest areas or a centre, aspirational party of the suburbs? To me the need for choice seems unmistakeable.
    Amber
    You may already have it but given the Aberdeen result, your 60 should be possible.

  16. Silent majority?
    Yes (if you know what I mean)

  17. Just wait for Aberdeenshire

  18. Delighted if edinburgh goes 60:40 :)

  19. Thrasher called it 55/45 so NO WAS underestimated.

  20. Aberdeen already declared?

  21. Aberdeen
    I thought someone posted it? I left the count 20 mins ago.

  22. Yes I meant it already declared. Thumping result for NO. Backyard of Salmond.

  23. N Ayrshire

    Yea 47072
    No 49016

  24. I meant Aberdeenshire. Rumours of whopping defeat for Salmond

  25. S Ayrshire

    Yes 34402
    No 47247

  26. Barney, first of all congratulations. Massive mandate. Huge turnout and matter settled for generations. Are there unionist rallies planned in Scotland or even in England?

  27. @Barney

    Is Aberdeenshire that different an area to Angus?

  28. E Ayrshire

    Yes: 39762
    No: 44442

  29. BBC projects Scotland will vote No. Not particularly bold.

  30. Thumps up to the pollsters too. They got it just about right.

  31. @Mactavish – absolutely.

    Back to sleep now.

  32. I need to go to work now, but it’s been a good night.

    Pleased with my prediction model. After 12 results (excluding Orkney and Shetlands) it produced a no 10% lead has stayed close to that.

    I only hope that Scotland unites to ensure it get the best deal from Westminster, a deal it deserves.

    Both sides deserve credit for invigorating the Scottish electorate.

  33. Not ashamed to say I just shed a few tears of happiness.

  34. Correction

    I need to go to work now, but it’s been a good night.

    I am pleased with my prediction model. After 12 results (excluding Orkney and Shetlands) it produced a no lead of 10%, and has stayed close to that from that point onwards.

    I only hope that Scotland unites to ensure it get the best deal from Westminster, a deal it deserves.

    Both sides deserve credit for invigorating the Scottish electorate.

  35. What I find interesting is that in traditionally pro-SNP areas where the campaign has been clean and mature from both sides, the outcome has been No. Angus and the Western Isles for instance.

    By contrast, traditionally Labour areas where the campaign has at times been decidedly unpleasant from both sides (notably Glasgow), Yes have done better than the overall result might have suggested they would.

  36. Why have declarations stopped? Aberdeenshire, Fife, Edinburgh etc.

    Always a massive electoral disappointment in UK. There can never be no delays!

  37. Edinburgh
    YES – 123,927
    NO – 194,638

  38. 61/39 wow!

  39. Aberdeenshire

    YES – 71,337
    NO – 108,606

  40. 60:40 in Aberdeenshire too.

  41. Argyll and Bute:

    YES – 26,324
    NO – 37,143

    59/41

  42. Aberdeenshire 60/40. That’s pretty horrible numbers for Alex Salmond.

  43. YouGov have claimed LOT of people have changed from YES to NO in last minute or said YES to pollsters but voted NO.

  44. Good to see Anthony’s rejection of nonsensical media claims of ‘too close to call’ turned out to be right. Also his insistence on shy NO vote turned out to be true.

  45. Fife: 55% NO 45%YES

  46. Fife declares 55-45

    And NO has officially won with two declarations still in hand.

  47. Fife:
    YES – 114,148
    NO – 139,788

  48. Moray:

    YES – 27,232 (42)
    NO – 36,935 (58)

  49. No need 86000 from Highland to make the 2m mark

  50. Well, I think we can safely conclude the polls were systemically wrong.

    Ispos Mori wins, I guess, but barely.

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