As people have reported and grumbled, there is no proper exit poll tonight for the Scottish referendum (the defining feature of an exit poll is that it’s done outside actual polling stations as people exit. They are very expensive, and no one commissioned one!). We are hence going to have to wait for the actual results.

The only 10pm polling news we have is that YouGov did a recontact of the people who took part in their final poll during the day today to check for any late swing – amongst those people they did find some movement from YES to NO since the final polling, producing a final YouGov prediction of YES 46%, NO 54% (details are here). Lord Ashcroft also apparently did some polling during the day asking about people’s reasons for voting how they did – those results will be out tomorrow.

Given we aren’t likely to have any proper result for six or seven hours I’m going to catch some sleep and then wake up for some real results, but feel free to discuss the early results as they come in here.


389 Responses to “Scotland results thread”

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  1. UKIP dude reminds me of Vernon Dudley

  2. Sorry! I meant Vernon Dursely…I am far too tired

  3. @R&D

    Mr Murphy is a little to the right for my liking but he does have a very calm demeanour, which is an admirable quality in a senior politician.

  4. Significant stuff, this. Get the Devo Maxish offer right, and my guess is that, like Quebec, that’s the independence movement finished. Then there’s the small matter of sorting out governance in England, which has huge ramifications for the rest of us. Two competing interests there, and it looks like a battle between an ‘English only’ approach alongside an ‘English only plus regional devolution’ approach.

  5. Fife according to both camps:

    No 55%
    Yes 45%

  6. raf

    …. and a dry sense of humour.

    ,,, oh, and one of my favourite type of Scots accents.

  7. It’s amazing how that UKIP bloke managed to get a temporary truce between yes and no guests. Didn’t think Ricky whatshisname should have called UKIP racist, but my goodness that MEP was a clown and BBC didn’t need to invite him on.

  8. Inverclyde

    Yes: 27,242
    No: 27,329

  9. Edinburgh – I’m hearing 60% No 40% Yes.

  10. RT @sarah_bloch: Alex Salmond left Aberdeen airport by private jet at 3am accompanied by wife Moira. Destination unknown.

  11. Amazing how long John Curtice takes to say absolutely buggerall.

    Daisie could do a better job.

    Not Rosie though, she couldn’t give a toss, the little rascal.

  12. Aberdeen, Edinburgh very clear NO lead. Glasgow 50:50 apparently.

  13. @Amber

    That would be a surprise. At least to me. Were you expecting as high a margin for No in Edinburgh?

  14. Inverclyde was a good showing for YES.

  15. Looking at the gaps on my spreadsheet, only 1 out of the 16 authorities in the Yes half have declared.

    Still, it looks a No win, unless some really big Yes results come through soon.

  16. @MacTavish

    BBC said earlier Salmond would go to Edinburgh for the final certified referendum declaration.

  17. @ RAF – 60-40 in Edinburgh wouldn’t be out of line with other results so far

  18. @Alec
    “a battle between an ‘English only’ approach alongside an ‘English only plus regional devolution’ approach”.

    I’m very suspicious of the latter option because it probably means a watered down version of devolution for the English regions. I.e. if the regions had the current powers of the Scottish governemtn, there would hardly ever be an England-only bill – as most areas where there is a separate English system (Education, NHS etc ) would largely be devolved.

    Of course many in Wales and Scotland would be loath to see the English regions empowered to the same extent as they are. I’m expecting a nasty steaming brown heap of fudge from all parties on this issue.

  19. amber

    You must be a very happy woman the neet?

  20. @ RAF

    That would be a surprise. At least to me. Were you expecting as high a margin for No in Edinburgh?
    ————–
    60/40 was at the low end of my expectation for Edinburgh!

  21. What are the words on Glasgow? Kate Burley is tensing it up a bit.

  22. Renfrewshire

    Yes: 55,466
    No: 62,067

  23. @Amber

    You clearly have high standards.

  24. Actually John Curtice could double as a footy correspondent with pearls like

    “If yes are to make it they need to start winning somewhere”

    Sounds like the old standard when a team is losing 2-0 and the “expert” says

    “They need to score a goal if they’re going to get back into the match”

    and you think

    “Blimey ! He’s right. ”

    and then they say

    “But they need to make sure it doesn’t become 3-0”

    and you faint with admiration.

    Anyway, I digress.

  25. Dundee City

    Yes: 53,620
    No: 39,880

  26. Dundee 57/43 for Yes.

  27. Dundee

    Yes 57%
    No 43%

  28. No surprise at Dundee voting Yes.

  29. @ Rosie&Daisie

    You must be a very happy woman the neet?
    ————
    It’s looking pretty good at the moment. But I’m not sure we’ll get to 60:40 overall, which is what I’d have liked to see.

  30. W Dumbarton

    Yes: 33,720
    No: 28,776

  31. Current totals:

    Yes 49.8%
    No 50.2%

  32. Midlothian.

    Yes: 26,370
    No: 33,972

  33. R&D

    Funny, but I suppose he’s in the same position as Footie correspondents in that he is trying to talk about something that’s disappointingly dull. As long as he doesn’t tell us “Alex Salmond has opened his legs and showed his class” I can live with it.

  34. East Lothian

    Yes: 27,467
    No: 44,283

  35. Stirling

    Yes: 25,010
    No: 37153

  36. Very poor Stirling and East Lothian result for YES.

  37. Falkirk

    Yes: 50,489
    No: 58,030

  38. Falkirk another poor one for Yes. ( I am basing these judgements on Roger Mexico’s projections-hope he doesn’t mind!)

  39. This is increasingly looking like a victory won by Gordon Brown.

  40. Angus

    Yes: 35,044
    No 45,192

  41. Dumfries

    Yes 36614
    No 70039

  42. Aberdeen 56% No
    44% Yes

  43. Aberdeen!? Are you sure?

  44. Goodnight Alex

  45. East Renfrewshire 63% NO 34%YES

  46. East Renfrewshire

    Yes: 24287
    No: 41690

  47. Adam why were you surprised about Aberdeen?

  48. East Dunbartonshire votes NO 62% Yes 38%

  49. E Dumbarton

    Yes: 30624
    No: 48314

    Aberdeen City

    Yes: 59390
    No 84094

  50. Aberdeen City is 59/41 to No

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