As people have reported and grumbled, there is no proper exit poll tonight for the Scottish referendum (the defining feature of an exit poll is that it’s done outside actual polling stations as people exit. They are very expensive, and no one commissioned one!). We are hence going to have to wait for the actual results.

The only 10pm polling news we have is that YouGov did a recontact of the people who took part in their final poll during the day today to check for any late swing – amongst those people they did find some movement from YES to NO since the final polling, producing a final YouGov prediction of YES 46%, NO 54% (details are here). Lord Ashcroft also apparently did some polling during the day asking about people’s reasons for voting how they did – those results will be out tomorrow.

Given we aren’t likely to have any proper result for six or seven hours I’m going to catch some sleep and then wake up for some real results, but feel free to discuss the early results as they come in here.


389 Responses to “Scotland results thread”

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  1. Peter Kellner now saying that following the UKIP poll and because of the high turnout he is now 99% sure of a NO vote.

  2. Kellner 99% certain of a No win.

    Fantastic showmanship on Sky.

  3. That final larger sample YG poll and tonight’s events worth a brief return from hibernation.

    It looks like- if YG poll anywhere near accurate- that Brown and Darling have served the UK cause well whilst Salmond seems to have (increasingly hysterically) overplayed his hand…..

    If so- the best result IMHO and one that should put this ‘question’ to bed for 25 years or more. Look for a Federal UK- as I suggested/ predicted on here back in 2011 as a solution to some of our governance problems.

    If not so- BOY have PK and AW et al got large dollops of egg on their faces!

    Have a good night all. I am with you I spirit.

  4. I linked to the previous post-election poll that YouGov did in 2011 in the previous thread:

    Constituency vote

    SNP 42% (45)

    Lab 33% (32)

    Con 13% (14)

    LD 8% (8)

    Other 3% (1)

    Regional vote

    SNP 41% (44)

    Lab 28% (26)

    Con 14% (12)

    LD 6% (5)

    Green 5% (4)

    SSP 1% (*)

    Other 5% (9)

    Figures in brackets are the actual result.

    So even these after-polls may not get it exactly right. That said 54-46 would have been my best guess as well.

  5. BBC is announcing the result as very close. Many in the Tory Party hope for a yes.

  6. I have come to the conclusion that if there are no updates on Murdoch’s twitter, it’s No’s night. And it looks like he knows it all and it’s a NO.

  7. Sadly, I agree with Peter Kellner.

  8. BBC graphics are very disappointing.

  9. I think we may be seeing one of those moments when a long atrophied political system suddenly breaks and reforms in a completely different way.

    Cons are seeking to use any No vote and the additional powers promised to exclude Scottish MPs from English parliamentary debates. Labour are moving towards accepting something like this happen, but are increasingly realising that regional devolution is essential if this happens. Amongst all this, the fracturing of the old way parliament is organised will reignite the idea of a change to the voting system, so an English parliament has the same system as Wales and Scotland.

    Huge potential changes, many long overdue.

  10. @Toonie – Yougov not UKIP!

  11. Labour sources suggesting No could be quite close in Dundee.

  12. @Statto

    “Kellner 99% certain of a No win. Fantastic showmanship on Sky.”

    He’s going to look like a complete and utter arse if his predictions are way off (in either direction). Somewhat along the line of “we’re right, all the other are wrong” from weeks back.

    Anthony, does either of these polls (pre and post vote) take into account the increased turnout?

    i.e. we had 64% in 2010, 50% in 2011, so does YouGov have any substantial additions to their polling base since say, the period after the registration cut off?

  13. @Alec et al

    Do we have any non-Labour predictions yet? :))

  14. Mike Smithson Tweets:

    “Mike Smithson [email protected] 38m – To underline. Tonight’s YouGov IndyRef survey IS NOT AN EXIT POLL”

    “Mike Smithson [email protected] 42m – If the YouGov election day survey is correct then NO would have done better than all the final IndyRef polls”

  15. @Statgeek – no news coming through. People are saying Yes seems quiet.

  16. What source, God knows but we have this:

    Britain Elects @britainelects · 1m
    #RUMOUR: VERY STRONG NO LEAD in North Lanarkshire, Glasgow and Clackmannanshire postal votes.

  17. Newcastle Journal Headline ‘Now What is Your Vow to The North?’

  18. It’s going to be a while before we get a decent idea of what’s happened. 4am, maybe?

    It looks like a No to me – but close enough that some areas will say Yes.

  19. Bit late to be vowing anything now.

  20. Allegedly Andy Murray’s pro-Yes twitter is today’s most popular.

  21. @Alec

    I think many are taking time out for now. Work done, and let’s watch the count.

  22. 97% turnout, wow and nearly 100% in some places, whichever way it goes at least it has people engaging in politics again

  23. @ MacTavish

    #RUMOUR: VERY STRONG NO LEAD in North Lanarkshire, Glasgow and Clackmannanshire postal votes.
    ————–
    I’ve been hearing rumours like this about postal votes but am not getting too excited about it because the demographics of postal voters could be very different from the non-postal voters.

  24. Postal votes will be No- pensioners etc.

  25. @amber

    Well for what it’s worth, if they announce Fife and/or Aberdeen 100% for ‘no’ via postal, it’s a fix, cos I know folk there that voted Aye!

    99%…can’t comment. :))

  26. Anyway, in the unlikely event of YES win, Peter Kellner might resign quicker than DC.

  27. Is it possible that total turnout would exceed 85%? I mean that would be remarkable.

  28. Here’s a thought: what will happen to the SNP parliamentary vote in 2015 AND 2016 elections if Scotland defies them?

  29. Watching on BBC. The yes campaign lady, Fiona’s reluctance to comment on what feel she has got for how people have voted tells its own story. I don’t think the yes campaign believes they have won

  30. “Labour sources suggesting No could be quite close in Dundee.”

    That alone would be remarkable.

  31. Jim Murphy has said Labour No vote has remained solid in Glasgow and Edinburgh.

  32. All the polls are saying a clear No victory and STILL THE BBC SAY THE POLLS ARE SAYING IT IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL!

    [Bang head on table]

    Do they say this just to generate excitement? (Of course the polls may be wrong, but they are not close).

  33. Statgeek
    Well for what it’s worth, if they announce Fife and/or Aberdeen 100% for ‘no’ via postal, it’s a fix, cos I know folk there that voted Aye!

  34. @Adrian B

    No results have yet been declares so they are being cautious.

  35. Ruth Davidson – Scottish Borders likely to be a 70% No vote. No surprises there.

  36. Statgeek
    “Well for what it’s worth, if they announce Fife and/or Aberdeen 100% for ‘no’ via postal, it’s a fix, cos I know folk there that voted Aye!”

    You mean you think they voted Aye. Thats what they told you!

  37. Cons are seeking to use any No vote and the additional powers promised to exclude Scottish MPs from English parliamentary debates.
    ———-
    They just can’t help themselves, can they?

  38. Ben Quinn writes from Aberdeenshire, in Alex Salmond’s backyard, where the SNP leader had been expected at the local count but is now not attending:

    An early indication that the Yes campaign is braced for defeat?

    Scotland’s First Minister, Alex Salmond, will be residing overnight at his home in the north east of Aberdeenshire, rather than coming to one of the referendum counts nearby.

    The fact that the SNP leader will not be going to the count for the council area which encompasses his constituency was being seen by some observers as an indicator that he expected the yes side to lose the referendum and was limiting his exposure tonight.

    One of Salmond’s staff told the Guardian as late as yesterday that the plan was that he would spend the day at his home in Strichen, go to the count before going on to Edinburgh in the morning so it does appear to be a change in plan.

  39. @ Roger H

    Could you explain to me why? Is that an area that would be expected to be in favor of Scottish Independence? Or opposed. I don’t know Scottish politics well enough, at least local politics, to make too many predictions. My only guesses would be that the Glasgow suburbs (though not Glasgow proper necessarily), Dunbartonshire, and Edinburgh would be the most opposed.

    Not sure where there would be strongest vote for independence. Probably wherever Alex Salmond lives.

  40. @MacTavish

    Hmm…there could be many reasons for AS’s non attendance. He might not be very well etc.

  41. Ruth Davidson is looking very happy.

  42. @RAF

    It could be the case. When we don’t have the official results, we can never conclude anything. But in each election (whatever format) we have indicators and tonight ALL indicators are pointing to a comfortable No win.

  43. @SOCALLIBERAL

    “Could you explain to me why?”

    My understanding is that it’s SNP heartland and according to the Herald was odds-on with the bookies to return the highest proportion of Yes votes of any area in Scotland (up to 65% for Yes has been predicted).

  44. MacTavish

    Agreed. All signs are pointing to No and by a more comfortable than expected margin too.

  45. Wonder if there’ll be any pressure to reduce the voting age to 16. I believe it’s LibDem policy.

  46. @Amber Star

    I’d be surprised to see the Conservatives ever gaining enough seats in Scotland to be worried about losing them to constitutional changes of one sort or another. In the foreseeable future, say 5 would be a lot for them. If they got that many, they’d almost certainly have a healthy majority in the HOC anyway, so another 5 seats would be irrelevant.

    And there’s why Scotland is considering its future: there’s one major Westminster party for which it is almost irrelevant.

  47. Even if the YouGov figures are correct , in no way could it be regarded as a comfortable No win

  48. According to YouGov the reason there has been a two point swing to No compared to yesterday is due to the massive turnout and voters coming out in force to save the Union which contradicted previous predictions high turnout will favour Yes.

  49. @Chasglas

    ‘Comfortable’ relative to other recent polls the media called ‘too close to call’.

  50. “And there’s why Scotland is considering its future: there’s one major Westminster party for which it is almost irrelevant.”

    2010 General Election:

    Scottish Tories: 412,000 votes

    SNP: 490,000 votes

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