The very last pre-election poll of the referendum campaign is by Ipsos MORI, for the Standard, and has topline figures of YES 47%, NO 53%. Once again, it is bang in line with all other other companies, who to a man (or woman) have YES between 47%-49%, NO between 51-53%. Full result for the MORI poll will, in due course, be here.


292 Responses to “The final poll – Ipsos MORI/Standard YES 47, NO 53”

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  1. All over bar the counting (and the recriminations).

  2. Have Yougov ever done a “how people voted, final prediction before?” I don’t remember seeing one.

    My guess is it is very different to the 52/48 we saw yesterday, that is why they are releasing it?

  3. I see no signs of a yougov poll.

    Maybe it was just a rumour.

  4. @Skippy

    You need to get back on Twitter. We can trust a tweet from Yougov.

    YouGov [email protected] · 18m
    YouGov will announce its final #IndyRef prediction at 22:30, based on recontacting voters today after they voted

  5. According to the bbc website, the you gov poll will be released at 22:30

    In other news Sky are reporting ~ 90% turnout in Dundee

  6. YouGov site has crashed

  7. No, a yougov poll due out st 22.30. It has been planned some days on absence of exit poll.

  8. If any change I’d expect more noes.

  9. The postal votes will be counted first. Will that give an early advantage for the ‘Yes’ camp ?

  10. London ministers have been ‘relieved’ according to good old Adam on Sky. McDougal was also sure of victory.

    What do they, City and bookies know that we don’t?

  11. In case you all forgot:

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead down one to two points: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%

    Well in line with AW’s averages.

  12. I forgot to add Murdoch to that last

  13. A few seconds ago – “Betting markets have shifted massively towards NO in the space of 5 mins: @Ladbrokes latest odds – 1/7 NO 9/2 YES”

  14. Alec: what do the bookies know that we don’t ?

  15. ” PM to lay out dramatic new plans for major shake up of how Britain is governed:”

    Sun tweet

  16. The YG poll results? Who knows.

  17. “The postal votes will be counted first. Will that give an early advantage for the ‘Yes’ camp ?”

    Doubt it. More likely to be older voters who’ll favour No.

  18. Alec
    Somebody obviously knows something, or has very deep pockets.

  19. “what do the bookies know that we don’t ?”

    Where the money’s going. They’re reflecting public opinion, at least among the gamblers.

  20. 54 No on,twitter

  21. The article that Statgeek referred to from the Website That Must Not Be Linked To was a rather silly piece by James Ball (who’s usually more sensible). He complained that the lack of an exit poll meant that without the demographic detail exit polls provide (on age, gender etc) we won’t have any way of analysing the result once the geographic totals come in.

    This completely misunderstands such polls. Academics and others tend not to use exit polls in their analyses because they don’t ask enough or searching enough questions (they’re basically only interested in predicting the result). Instead they rely on post-poll surveys such as those carried out by the British Election Study and other social science projects.

    In addition many pollsters are now doing their own polls of people immediately after they have voted. YouGov did a very interesting one after Holyrood in 2011 for example and there were others done soon after the Euro elections. YouGov at least are doing one today and such surveys have the advantage that they include those who voted by post and wouldn’t be caught in a conventional exit poll.

    Finally the main reason why there won’t be an exit poll is that they wouldn’t really know where to start. Over the years polling organisations and broadcaster, all working jointly, have built up a lot of knowledge about how best to get a reliable sample for the least effort – and with an exit poll even the least effort is a lot. For this referendum they have no such ideas because they don’t know the link between party support, geography, demographics and the like that will predict a reliable result.

    Of course none of this has anything to do with a democratic deficit as the headline complained (to be fair this is another sub-editor invention) which is hardly affected by having to wait a few hours (they should be grateful they’re not in Afghanistan). So if young James wants his instant gratification and to get to bed early, he’ll just have to rely on what he’s told on Grindr and risk possible disillusion in the morning.

    (I possibly should have worded that last sentence better).

  22. Is Jeremy Vine mad??

  23. @Thomas

    According to what source?
    There are news on Sky, Labour are very happy and have managed to get their core voters to vote No and cabinet minister is talking about 10 point lead for No.

    I actually enjoy these rumours more than actual results

  24. @Mactavish
    You Gov twitter feed
    54 No
    46 Yes

  25. Thanks. You tweeted quicker than YouGov itself!

  26. 54/46, if accurate, is still a comfortable “No” lead.

  27. From David Maddox – “Early briefings: Edinburgh West 4/1 No Dundee apparently 55 Yes also reports of strong No vote Edinburgh East “

  28. It Was Gordon Wot Won It

  29. Yeah Thomas, how did you get that information so quickly!?

  30. So it seems some of the YouGov panel switched to No when faced with the ballot paper. (As suggested by experience of other referendums.)

  31. The BBC has now confirmed the 54/46 YouGov figure.

  32. Paul Owen, John Haworth and Mine for Nothing tweeted it at 10.25. So you’ll have to ask them where they got it from! Not suggesting that YG leaked of course, probably just a good guess!

  33. A couple of things we need to put to bed right away;

    1) Polling wasn’t marred by violence or disorder, or widespread abuse of electoral law. Quite the reverse. It seems to have been a perfectly amicable exercise in mass participation democracy. I gather the arrest count is a score draw, with 1 yes and 1 no campaigner facing minor charges.

    2) I never make predictions normally, but I will predict that there will be no significant violence or disorder linked to the poll results tomorrow, whatever the result.

    I think there has been an element of disquiet regarding some aspects of a high octane Yes campaign, which is always likely when you attempt to seize control of patriotism for one side of the debate, but equally millions of Scots have gone about a deeply difficult democratic decision in perfectly good humour and without rancour.

  34. Seeing as the NO looks like it’s going to carry through, I wonder what the social consequences are going to be. For the hardcore YES campaigners who have been working for months on end, it would be an absolute kick in the face. I can’t help but see some violence coming out of this, or maybe I’m just being unrealistic.

  35. Not sure if 46-54 is comfortable but if true at least it would be the right outcome. Better get some proper reform or next time it probably would not be.

  36. @ROSIEANDDAISIE

    “…Is Jeremy Vine mad??…”

    No. However, he is paid quite a lot of taxpayer money to do an easy job very, very badly.

  37. @alec

    Being in Dundee I wouldnt be surprised at all if Dundee votes yes. I have been on the twitter site of Maddox and agree with him. If 55% Yes is correct it will not be enough.

  38. Since 50 of that 54% were always going to vote no since polling began on the subject, does that mean they don’t really mind if they get more powers or not….I mean you could only ever claim the 4% might have been swayed by the offer…. :P

  39. I so so so hope these early indications are right! I have felt pretty emotional all day fearing this could be the last day I live in the country in which I was born!!

  40. Rumours are of a predicted 55/45 result overall for “no”, but I guess it’s just speculation. Incidentally, that would be similar to the referendum to abolish the monarchy in Australia where republicans, like nationalists in Scotland, were much louder and “fired up”.

  41. Kellner ‘99% sure, No has won’. Labour officials very happy about their latest canvasses that showed their core voters voted No.

  42. @gattino

    The No offer was that there would always be more devolution so no that argument won’t wash!

  43. I linked to the previous post-election poll that YouGov did above.

    Constituency vote

    SNP 42% (45)

    Lab 33% (32)

    Con 13% (14)

    LD 8% (8)

    Other 3% (1)

    Regional vote

    SNP 41% (44)

    Lab 28% (26)

    Con 14% (12)

    LD 6% (5)

    Green 5% (4)

    SSP 1% (*)

    Other 5% (9)

    So even these polls may not get it exactly right. That said 54-46 would have been my best guess as well.

  44. I’ll just be relieved if that’s the result. I hope real reforms follow in its wake.

  45. Hello all. Good to see RiN again, and Ken was back recently too… Nice to see peeps popping back, and newcomers to the board as well. High turnout on UKPR!!…

    Interested to see how CMJ’s model works out… Don’t think I’ll be checking the Grindy thing tho’…

    Lots of discussion of knock-on effects and how Westminster responds whichever way Scotland votes… Bit weird to be following avidly an election that affects us so much without actually having a vote. Not that I tend to vote anyway, but still…

  46. BBCs Ross Hawkins tweeting that a ‘well placed’ Labour figure thinks Yes has won Glasgow and that if Yes win the night it’s ‘Labour that lost it’ ??!!?? That doesn’t fit the narrative at all.

  47. Wouldn’t have the initials DH by any chance?

  48. Dunno, he’s stuck his neck out for No already Ithink. If Yes were to win Glasgow that’s very bad news for No IMO

  49. @Ray From The North

    “Well Placed Labour Figures” do keep predicting doom gloom and disaster for their party. It’s almost like there’s a faction within the party that was recently side-lined after they were associated with some unpopular and unwise past decisions, and are telling journalists in bars about how awful the Labour party is now.

  50. @ Jayblanc

    Yes I definitely agree, but there’s no point briefing that now if in a few hours No wins Glasgow by 10%. It’s got me worried as a No supporter.

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