The very last pre-election poll of the referendum campaign is by Ipsos MORI, for the Standard, and has topline figures of YES 47%, NO 53%. Once again, it is bang in line with all other other companies, who to a man (or woman) have YES between 47%-49%, NO between 51-53%. Full result for the MORI poll will, in due course, be here.


292 Responses to “The final poll – Ipsos MORI/Standard YES 47, NO 53”

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  1. @Spearmint

    It sort of sounds good but I worry about the growth of a USIP (United Surrey Independence Party) moaning about Londoners or Hampshire Horrors ‘coming over here, taking our jobs and housing, sponging on our benefits, crowding out our A&E’

    Not sure how long I’ll last as I’m in France tonight and it’s very nearly Falkirk time here (ie polls closed :-)) already

  2. CATMANUEFF.

    The night of the Ashfield and Grimsby results; Roy Hattersley on the BBC. Vincent Hannah
    All nighters were great.

  3. @Muddy Waters

    I’m a bit with you on the turnout. I think it’ll be high, certainly by recent UK standards, but I’d be very surprised if it exceeded 80%.

    I’d be absolutely delighted if I was wrong, though.

  4. @Spearmint

    I very much like your idea of “regional sub-committees with devolved powers” (7.51pm).

    However, it needs a bit of further refinement regarding the Lords. Since a UK-wide HoL couldn’t properly act as a revising chamber to the regional committees, the latter would in effect have to be unicameral (as the three devolved parliaments already are).

    As a result, the HoL’s only function is as a revising chamber to the UK-wide Commons. This national parliament will presumably only have competence over foreign affairs, defence, monetary policy, strategic infrastucture, and federal fiscal policy). The latter would have to cover both federal taxes and regional fiscal redistribution (since a Northeast reliant only on northeast taxes would struggle, and a southeast retaining all southeast taxes would be even more bloated than now).

    Given this limited role for the HoL, and given that the HoC will still be hugely England-dominated, there’s no reason why the 4 nations shouldn’t be equally represented in the Lords.

  5. I also recall the predictions of high turnout for the 2014 European elections due to the Ukip surge… and then it turned out to be 34.17%, lower than 2004 and 2009.

    Alas, I won’t be joining UKPR for the all-nighter, as I have a referendum-watching party to get to. But I’ll be with you all in spirit.

  6. Final odds across a range of major bookmakers:

    ‘No’ 1/5
    ‘Yes’ 4/1

    Looks like its all over for Salmond

  7. I’m looking each counting region tonight, and have taken the votes the SNP got in 2012 local elections (first preference) as a guide to the level of general support for independence. The proposition is that getting SNP voters to vote ‘yes’ is the low hanging fruit. I know some SNP voters might vote ‘no’ and non-SNP voters might vote ‘yes’, but there should be some correlation between background SNP support and ‘yes’, I would imagine.

    Local AuthoritySNP First Preference Share of Vote (2012)

    Shetland Islands – 1.9
    Orkney – 3
    Dumfries and Galloway – 19.5
    East Renfrewshire – 19.8
    Scottish Borders – 20.7
    nan Eilean Siar – 24.9
    East Dunbartonshire – 25.4
    Inverclyde – 25.4
    Highland – 25.8
    Edinburgh – 26.9
    South Ayrshire – 29.3
    Argyll and Bute – 29.7
    West Dunbartonshire – 30.3
    East Lothian – 30.4
    Fife – 31.1
    Aberdeen – 31.3
    Glasgow – 32.6
    Renfrewshire – 33.9
    North Lanarkshire – 34.4
    North Ayrshire – 35
    South Lanarkshire – 37.1
    Stirling – 37.2
    Aberdeenshire – 38.9
    Midlothian – 39.4
    Moray – 39.4
    East Ayrshire – 39.5
    West Lothian – 40.4
    Falkirk – 40.5
    Perth and Kinross – 41.8
    Dundee – 43.4
    Angus – 44.4
    Clackmannanshire – 46

    If the ‘yes’ Campaign is to win, then they need to be winning from Clackmannanshire down to Glagow(ish) broadly I think. If ‘no’ wins most of these SNP strong areas, that will probably end with a decent win for ‘no’ tonight.

    As the night goes on I will be plotting the ‘yes’ vote % vs SNP (2012), to see if an early pattern in the regression appears.

    It might prove a highly dodgy hypothesis that fails miserably, but it will at least help me to stay awake for longer!

  8. @ROBIN

    “California does not represent 84% of the popualtion of the US. It makes no sense at all to “devolve” power to something almost the same size.”

    I really can’t see it matters whether the national parliaments are the same or not. They’d each have the same powers within their own administrative area. And it makes sense to have even an 84% parliament if the alternative is having the remaining 16% voting on both their own legislation and on English legislation that doesn’t concern them.

  9. @MrNameless

    “…So what’s everyone having to stay awake for the count? I’ve got four Sainsbury’s doughnuts and a can of Monster energy drink. Some of you may prefer the classic black coffee or something less conventional…”

    I have cheese, popcorn and diet coke. I will go to bed tonight either with massive relief at a “No” or some distress at a “Yes”. Either way I am not partying.

  10. @ Miserable Old Git,

    It’s not mine, it’s Mark Ferguson’s. I’d like to take credit but as it’s literally the only good West Lothian proposal I’ve ever seen I think he deserves the recognition.

    You raise a fair point, although Westminster still controls justice for Wales, doesn’t it? That’s a pretty large area of non-devolution, and forking the Welsh (and English regional, I guees) legal systems would be a massive headache.

  11. As I lay me down to sleep
    I pray the Lord this land to keep
    Or, if it’s gone this time tomorrow,
    One last Scotch to drown the sorrow.

  12. when is that yougov poll expected?

  13. @CMJ

    Thanks for the data. I’ve popped it into Excel with a correlation coefficient function. I’ll stay up for the first few results, but not an allnighter, so this should let me know what I can expect to wake up to.

  14. We are getting another yougov poll tonight – which is a check of how their panel voted today – will be very interesting to see.

  15. @Colin:

    “The English have shown scant interest in Regional Assemblies, not to mention elected Mayors.”

    But about the only powers they were offered were those taken from other local authorities with nothing significant devolved from Westminster. Little better than regional quangos.

    City corporations from a century or so ago, e.g Birmingham under the Chamberlains, were dynamic, powerful and progressive administrations, raising money to build sewers and water supplies, etc. and in the vanguard of introducing health and education reforms.

  16. Kevin Maguire @Kevin_Maguire · 2h

    Senior figure in No campaign predicted they’ll win 58-42 in Scotland. Yes gone very quiet. We’ll see…

    Breaking my own rule on twitter here…

  17. @Spearmint

    I must admit I don’t know about the Wales legal system. However, I see no reason why legal issues (including the structure of the legal system itself) shouldn’t be devolved matters. The Supreme Court still exists as court of final appeal, deciding cases in line with the local legal system. As far as I know, this is what already happens with Scotland.

    However, I’m neither a lawyer nor am I Peter Hennessy, so I may be talking total codswallop here.

  18. @MOG

    I’m excluding Orkney and the Shetlands Islands, as the data for there look weird (as well as being true outliers).

    Combined, they make up about 0.9% of the electorate, so I don’t think their contribution will be significant to the overall result.

  19. @Muddy / CB11 / Spearmint

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11107463/Voter-turnout-for-Scottish-referendum-could-be-highest-of-any-British-election.html

    (7.46pm)

    “Senior Labour insiders said they were predicting turnout of 84 per cent”

    The general reports are that turnout is high.

  20. Everyone –

    Someone tweeted that the Sunday Herald editor says that the Postal votes are massively in favour of YES.

    However… I find two flaws here
    1) How can he know
    2) Isn’t that illegal?

  21. @RogerH,

    What’s to stop Birmingham City Council raising money for infrastructure projects now?

  22. GATTINO.
    Very funny.
    Thank you.

  23. @skippy

    Aren’t you ignoring your own advice ‘re Twitter?

  24. @Hireton

    I know, I know! I can’t help myself!

    I just saw it when I read the tweet on another site.

    I am seeing the postal votes are now being opened and counted – so unless that Sunday Herald editor is able to see through paper, he should be unable to know if postal votes showed Yes ahead!

  25. @skippy – trying to keep morale up maybe?

  26. cl45

    Are you still agreeing with the poster who wrote in to say that the momentum was with yes??

    I find analysis is your mate when making these calls…….

  27. Skippy: the postal ballots are not counted until all polling stations close. I guess the only way he could know (or infer) would be if he had information about some poll of postal voters.

  28. @catmannjeff

    If you are looking at local election results in the Northern Isles you need to remember that independent candidates and councillors are very significant there.

  29. “What’s to stop Birmingham City Council raising money for infrastructure projects now?”

    The Treasury, mostly. They can raise money and issue bonds to a limited extent but they have far less control over things like transport and housing.

  30. Can’t believe the amount of nonsense on Twitter:

    “Exit polls (????) suggest Yes well ahead”. “Ipsos MORI poll becoming invalid because of turnout”.

  31. @MacTavish

    Why are these people lying? What benefit do they see? The votes are close for god sake, they can’t keep up the charade now.

  32. ROSIE AND DASIE.
    Good Evening to you.
    I am glad you follow my analysis closely.

    Waiting for the polls to close.

  33. The YouGov panel poll is probably the closest we will get to an “exit poll”. If that shows ‘Yes” ahead, it will make many people nervous.

  34. Polls about to close and the heavens have opened here with accompanying thunder and lightning. Could it be a sign?

  35. “The YouGov panel poll is probably the closest we will get to an “exit poll”. If that shows ‘Yes” ahead, it will make many people nervous.”

    But presumably they’re the same people who favoured no only yesterday.

  36. If I had to guess, I’d suppose the Yougov poll will show 54/46 to No. Mostly because when people were asked how they will vote in the referendum, rather then being asked “should scotland be an independent country”, the NO vote was a little higher.

  37. @HIreton.

    Thank you.

    Yes, I did realise that politics in the most remote places can be very local indeed. This is why a broad analysis should probably ignore such special instances.

  38. All our comments will soon be buried at this rate as, wonderfully, posts are coming in almost every minute.

    Just to sound a word of caution. Approaching 800,000 postal votes were issued according to a R4 report this morning. That must be getting on for 25% of the electorate.

    Some of these may have been cast during the start of the surge to yes – later stopped in its tracks it seems – so the result will not be quite a snapshot of today. Caveats etc.

    Either way a very important vote, which I will probably get up very early to catch up on. A family member is going on holiday at 3:30 and that might just wake me up.

  39. What is this hypothetical YouGov poll? YouGov said their poll last night was final call.

  40. It’s so good to be witnessing such an historic moment.

    I wish everyone well, and a very happy referendum night.

  41. @alister1948

    I see NO was ahead by 6-8% when postal votes went out.

  42. That Trendsmap is interesting. The rest of Europe supports Yes. Only India, Australia and the eastern USA seem to be for No.

    Quebec and Catalonia quite heavily Yes.

  43. Postal votes are counted with the rest of the papers, but they are verified beforehand – often in batches over several days. Representatives of the candidates, or in this case the campaigns, are entitled to be there when they are opened and verified. Sometimes they can get an idea of how people voted during this process, though the papers are supposed to be dealt with face down.

    That said, on such a close race we’re basically talking about wishful thinking.

  44. Mr Murdoch was on Fox in the US earlier claiming knowledge of how the postals were going (heavy no he said) and also knowledge of a private exit poll for the BT camp. Anybody else see it/

  45. chris

    Not “closely”… I just read them and smile. they seem a bit knee-jerk to me to be honest.

    More ‘portuntly we spell Daisie like <<<< that.

    She is TOOOOOOOOOOOO on Sunday !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  46. I hate the news on election/referendum day – its like making small talk with the in-laws. At least it will start getting interesting again in 2-mins.

  47. Ladies and Gents

    go to bed.

    No will be over 60% in the morning.

    have a great one.

  48. That is it ! Polls are now closed.

  49. 22:30 now according to twitter.

  50. @catmannjeff

    Not so much down to remoteness I think but the fact there are many islands in each group so councillors represent their small communities.

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