The very last pre-election poll of the referendum campaign is by Ipsos MORI, for the Standard, and has topline figures of YES 47%, NO 53%. Once again, it is bang in line with all other other companies, who to a man (or woman) have YES between 47%-49%, NO between 51-53%. Full result for the MORI poll will, in due course, be here.


292 Responses to “The final poll – Ipsos MORI/Standard YES 47, NO 53”

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  1. Is it all thanks to Gordy?

  2. Assuming the poll was conducted before voting began, I wonder what the score when including the undecideds…

  3. @Yohay

    From the link:

    “Among those certain to vote, 50% say they will vote No, with 45% saying they will vote Yes and 4% still undecided.”

  4. If the vote does in fact favour YES, what will the Scots do with all their .co.uk web domains?

  5. Gordon Browns speech turned me into NO.
    They should have used him from the start instead of Darling.

    I’ve been obsessed with your blog over the past 4 weeks, thanks alot for all these updates.

  6. the YES vote got even longer odds overnight at the bookmakers.
    Now 4/1 from 3/1. Is it worth a punt?

  7. Thanks ALISDAIR! Together with the headline, this is a stronger lean towards No, and the rise of the pound in the past hour or so.

  8. Salmond on Today on R4 yesterday soundest very odd. His tone (although not the content of what he said) was very meek and mild, in a tone of voice I have *never* heard from him before.

    My first thought was that it was some focus-group led performance, but as the polls came in yesterday I started to wonder if he knew the game was up.

    I think it is plausible that one or two polling companies m ight not be picking up some important demographic that would introduce a systematic error. But it seems beyond belief that every single one would be missing that same demographic.

    The only likely systematic error that remains, that I can think of, is differential response rate. And if that effect exists, everything points to it leading to an underestimate of the ‘No’ vote.

    I wouldn’t bet on ‘Yes’ even at 10/1.

  9. Hireton,

    There are all sorts of reasons why someone might oppose tax devolution. Most people I know oppose tax devolution to the richer suburbs of Scotland.

  10. Up until now, most of my Scottish friends (on social media, mainly Facebook) have been roughly 50/50 in terms of expressed support, but in the past few days there has suddenly a HUGE surge in the Naws. I think it’s an “unsilencing bandwagon” effect. Gordon Brown making some of the trendy lefties feel comfortable with unionism and the Orange Order march were both important, I think.

    I’m sure it’s not representative of the country as a whole, of course, but it’s interesting to see.

  11. @IainC

    I would be interested (if you want to elaborate) on your change of heart… was it Brown’s more passionate approach for example? But I respect you keeping this to yourself also. And no I don’t think you should be punting at those odds :-)

  12. It costs just as much to lose at generous odds.

  13. Salmond has been playing defence for the last whole week – you could see it in his anger at the BBC and then in him switching to a core vote “bullying by Westminster” slogan strategy. If it was almost in the bag we would have heard much more of the “it’s happening and get on the right side of history” message. As it is he’s been having to persuade people to “have the courage to make history”.

    I think they have run an amazing campaign with all the uncertainties they can’t answer, but because of this I do think the DKs will swing to No.

  14. My paddy friend said exit polls show Yes ahead. he’s lying I assume, as exit polls usually come at the end, hence the name?

  15. No exit polls being done apparently.

    But, I do know YouGov are asking their scottish panel how they voted today.

  16. @Iain C Beaware I’ve not seen a media outlet refer to it as devo max – that Brown offer, at any rate is certainly not devo max

    There is no mandate for devo max. No obligations by Westminster.

    As someone from England, I dont expect Devo max anytime soon for Scotland…..Enjoy Tory rule muahaha ;)

  17. Skippy, my understanding is that there wasn’t going to be an exit poll.

    I could be wrong. It could be that he knows a teller who thinks Yes are doing better in that area than a “too close to call” result would suggest. But most likely he’s lying.

  18. Interesting Twitter trends mapping here:

    http://trendsmap.com/v2/Lf62/w

    @MrFluff

    At £10-20 per year, it’s hardly top of the worries list if it becomes an issue.

  19. Skippy: as far as I know, there will be no exit polls for the Scottish referendum.

  20. RogerH

    Well I’ve always thought its best to have a punt on the result you don’t want – if it comes off you can pay for the beer to drown ones sorrows, and if it doesn’t who cares as you’ve won.

    I also thought Salmond’s contribution on Today yesterday was very downbeat, and his failure to have a definitive answer to the currency question the day before the biggest day of his political life (I mean something more than change the subject and its been a wonderful uplifting campaign) may be very costly for him in the post-mortem if NO prevails.

  21. Twitter trending map doesn’t help. Cybernats are famously loud, they even raid the BT Facebook page…

  22. Even if there was an exit poll it wouldn’t produce a reliable result only halfway through the voting.

  23. @IainC

    Penderyn is, of course, quite right.

    Did it never occur to you that the English shires will enjoy knifing Gordon in the back yet again?
    Gordon Brown is a great orator – and speaks to the heart of people such as myself who come from a very similar background to his own.
    Although I will still vote Yes, I happen to think that Gordon’s speeches were, indeed, inspirational.

    Unfortunately they were founded on the mistaken assumption that he was in control of a sizable majority in the UK Parliament.

    Still, we shall see……..

  24. Ipsos MORI were the most accurate poll prior to 2011 Holyrood election. Is there anything to suggest their methodology and weighting make them distinct from other polls and their referendum prediction is the more likely result?

  25. @Skippy

    You show your colours. I didn’t say it was helpful or hindering either side. I said it was interesting (as an on-line spectacle).

    Getting a little nervous? :))

  26. Im not nervous, just questioning it’s use… I was always vehemently opposed to independence, my colours were clear from the start!

  27. I heard a snippet of Salmond talking to John Pienaar, and while his words were as superbly crafted and delivered as ever, I agree with Robin that his tone was one that I’ve never heard from him before.

    He wouldn’t have called the referendum unless he thought victory was possible (NB possible, not probable – all that really mattered was to avoid a heavy enough No to put off the question of Independence by several decades rather than sevaral parliaments). That said, my suspicion is that at some point over the last six to eight weeks he moved from believing that Yes was possible, to believing that it was more likely than not if everyone gave everything to the campaign, and yesterday determined that he might have been right the first time.

    Make no mistake, no politician on this island is better at playing the cards he is dealt than Salmond. On Friday morning I’m absolutely certain that his words on the outcome will carry more weight than anyone, even if No wins handsomely.

  28. Don’t a majority of people think Salmond should resign in the case of a No vote? I don’t see him doing so however.

  29. Given that he’s one of the few elected politicians that follows through on a manifesto pledge, I can’t see it.

  30. I don’t see it either Skippy.

    My impression has long been that a lot of people didn’t switch to SNP in 2007 or 2011 at Holyrood because of nationalism, but in spite of it because they preferred Salmond to the leaders of other parties that they might consider voting for. Losing a referendum he said he could win would undoubtedly represent the start of a fall from the peak of his popularity, but we’re talking about one heck of a peak in the first place.

  31. @skippy

    I’m not sure I have seen any polling on that. Nobody I have spoken to – yesers and noers – has raised that as an issue. So my instinct is that no a majority of people in Scotland at least do no think he should resign.

  32. Should clarify that: I don’t see him doing so unless it’s his intention to retire completely. There is no question, none whatsoever, of his own party putting any sort of pressure on him to go.

    I’m sure the referendum will work its way into the following Holyrood campaign, and it’s a given that the First Minister of the time will always be targetted by the main opposition. But Labour wouldn’t dare to go after Salmond on the basis of losing the referendum as directly as Skippy’s previous comment to mine would suggest.

  33. For ON
    and all others involved in this issue
    in great, full appreciation and admiration

    Why not go gentle into that, tonight
    I just might
    One’s dogs must have each dog’s own day
    Each single malt must find each malt’s tonight
    My malt’s tonight may be tonight
    But if my heart is full of sorrow
    I’ll take more malts upon the morrow

  34. There is the factor that the polls missed the surge in the SNP Regional List vote in 2011.

    Something similiar might be happening here.

  35. @Roger

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-13083953

    – Bring forward legislation for an independence referendum.

    Labour claim a lot of things. They claimed an end to boom and bust and an end to poverty.

    Of course you can find 100 in there if you want.

  36. >Don’t a majority of people think Salmond should resign in the case of a No vote? I don’t see him doing so however

    I think he should stay, either to complete the negotiations after a YES, or to deal with the conseuences after a NO.

    I rather think he expects to leave the confusion in the hands of others to clear up either way, and I hope the UK Goverment will prevent that by moving quickly to whatever comes next.

    I sure hope that the Government have been doing some planning.

    There need to be some serious reforms to devolved Parliaments too since all 3 seem to be in trouble.

  37. In the event of a no, they need to think when they’re going to hand over to Nicola. Would make sense to give her time before next Holyrood election.

  38. I think this poll is wrong it must be because everyone I’ve spoke to everyone I’ve seen pics, videos, messages. All over social networking sites has been 90% yes votes so if there is no independence I think this is all a big conspiracy/ fix….. #voteYES

  39. @ Matt W

    I don’t think there is any serious suggestion or polling evidence that the Scottish Parliament is in trouble as you put it nor that any Westminster intervention (other than to strengthen its powers) would be welcome.

  40. It’s bizarre to me that everyone has stopped giving the figure for the DKs when they hold the balance.

  41. I’ve never thought that Cameron should resign if it’s a Yes. Why should he? The media and some of his opponents like the idea. So what?

  42. @Nigel

    Final poll from Ipsos MORI had:
    Yes: 45
    No: 50
    Undecided:4

  43. I’ve never thought that Cameron should resign if it’s a Yes. Why should he?

    Call me old fashioned, but I take the view that if the country you strongly advocate remaining as-is splits apart whilst you are its leader, and that split was not on the immediate horizon when you took office, your position is untenable.

    That’s very different to Salmond’s position in the event of a No, which would be having campaigned against the status quo and achieving significant but not majority support.

  44. It’s not looking good for the catalans, the Spanish govt will be overjoyed with this poll

  45. Hold on folks. Six hours till polls close, over twelve until we can be certain we know the result.

    To early to call anything in this extraordinary campaign, and far too early to write anyone’s obituary.

  46. Hey mate I’m not a man to catch my chickens before they hatch.

    Btw Liverpool have won the league.

  47. @ ChrisHornet,

    I agree with you, Salmond will do whatever he likes, and Scottish Labour are hardly in a position to call for his resignation.

    I wonder though if Nicola Sturgeon might not be a better candidate to lead the SNP into the next election. The last week or so of the referendum campaign has been pretty toxic, and while we’ve heard a lot from Couper about how it has polarised former Labourites like him into SNP voters, I suspect that a similar effect has occurred in the opposite direction.

    Certainly it has for me- not that my non-Scottish vote is particularly relevant here, but I know that just from watching the campaign from afar I’ve gone from lumping the SNP in with Labour, Plaid and the Greens as “Broadly acceptable parties, determine vote on a candidate-by-candidate and manifesto-by-manifesto basis” to visceral tribal antipathy toward them. And Salmond is the personification of this toxicity.

    If they want to pick up swing voters (or even the SNP supporters who voted no in the referendum, who I imagine are no keener on being called traitors than anyone else), Sturgeon might be a safer choice. You could even see it in their speeches at that last Yes rally: hers was much more inclusive.

  48. Quite fascinated by that twitter trend map. I have several friends very much into twitter and other social media (I don’t follow any of these at all) and they invariably talk about a narrow and selective set of issues, all entirely predictable and with absolutely no surprises.

    I general feel twitter is a very poor way to track national sentiment on anything, due to the self selecting and somewhat limited range of views it tends to attract, but that’s by the by.

    What fascinates me about the map is that I was wondering what the twitter map would look like if we put out a story that the government was to use the twitter network to track what people were talking about, record the location of every user, and publish it on a website for everyone to watch.

    I can imagine the eruption of liberal outrage ‘big brother is watching you’ hyperbole, but these types are perfectly happy to pay money to an American multinational to do this for them. It makes me smile.

  49. Absolutely, unless you consider that he is morally obliged to do so because the Scots have never really liked the Camerons, or am i thinking of the Campbells, or the well hard left want him to go before he accidently wins a Westminster election or most compellingly, perhaps, because the small but influential group of Tory backbench asylum seekers say they can’t abide him.

  50. Got to say – todays online versions of London broadsheets carry stories that could potentially have swung the vote (might still have) if published 24 hours earlier.

    Talk of 63% of MPs opposing the funding pledge and ministers rebelling is just what Yes would have wanted.

    It may well now be too late, but the image of betrayal by Westminster is a powerful grenade to lob into the midst of a tight electoral contest.

    For my money, the fun really starts after a narrow No vote. Three party leaders have to deliver something their parties don’t appear to want, with a GE in 8 months time. Shortening odds on a second referendum soon, in all probability, and this time one much harder to defend the union.

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