Two more final polls tonight. YouGov’s final poll for the Sun and the Times has topline voting intention figures of YES 48%, NO 52% – reinforcing the general polling consensus around that figure. Fieldwork was Monday to Wednesday, with a sample size of 3000 or so.

Meanwhile a Survation telephone poll for the Daily Record has toplines of YES 47%, NO 53%, again very much in line with the consensus. The Survation poll was conducted today, so has later fieldwork.

The very last referendum poll isn’t till tomorrow morning – Ipsos MORI for the Standard. I’ll post shortly summarising what we can tell from the final polls so far.


49 Responses to “YouGov and Survation final polls”

  1. Furst?

  2. Never! I’m usually the one writing a thesis on the previous thread after everyone else has moved on.

  3. I’m assuming everyone else is out doorstepping in Scotland?

  4. Last night, I mocked my own cynicism about convergent results. Maybe I’m not cynical enough! :-)

  5. @ Lefty

    I’m usually the one writing a thesis on the previous thread after everyone else has moved on.
    ————
    LOL! I will now always be going back to look for them. :-)

  6. @Lefty

    “I’ll post shortly summarising what we can tell from the final polls so far.”

    I guess that means a new thread shortly, so to avoid “writing a thesis on the previous thread after everyone else has moved on.”, wait for the next one :)

  7. BBC still saying its neck and neck.

    Combined sample sizes on those final polls must make the No lead modest, but very clear. Only hope for Yes is systemic error in all the polls.

  8. Amber. No point. AW’s moderates them…

  9. I’m literally chewing my fingers. Nails went days ago.

    Sorry, that’s not very psephelogical. Too nervous.

  10. I’m getting very excited about tomorrow – another election all-nighter.

    Looking through my spread sheets, due to the size of electorate and the mid ranking in order of nationalist support, Glasgow and Mid Scotland and Fife look like bell weather areas.

    Whoever is winning those will probably take home the bacon.

  11. Not saying No will definitely happen but any thoughts I had of staying up into the early hours have been dispelled by all those polls.

  12. @ Lefty

    I’m assuming everyone else is out doorstepping in Scotland?
    ————–
    I’m not long back – we can’t be knocking after about 7:30pm or we’ll disturb the kids’ bedtimes. So we’ve also been doing the other eve of poll stuff: A-Boards, polling station rotas, planning the early morning leaflet drop etc. etc.

  13. @OldNat

    For once I agree with you.

    Today’s four polls (headline not exact figures): Mean lead 4%.

    Ditto yesterday’s three polls.

  14. Radical Independence Group have plans to bus non voters and cram them into polling booths, it’s going to get ugly.
    I have a sad feeling Scotland has become deeply polarised and Yes voters, despite their extraordinary campaign efforts and enthusiasm , might be in for a massive anti-climax and grief on Friday. There is going to be street trouble. I can’t predict the scale or duration of it but it’s not looking too good.
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  15. Oldnat

    Yeah, the fix is in for sure. Somewhere in Scotland there’s a disused, secret government facility where Darling and Lamont are right now filling in the final local authority tallies for tomorrow’s results. ;-)

  16. Muddy Waters

    The cynicism concerns the commercial reasons for companies to do what they do – not the electoral process.

  17. Everything I hear about the group “Radical independence” just makes me hate them more.

  18. Mactavish.

    If they do that then police cells will be full of them in no time at all, obstructing any uk election is very serious indeed. I agree Friday night will be brutal and I for one will be tucked up safe and sound, analyzing the result. I’ve always been wary of going out in Glasgow in the evenings, but still did it a lot, not this time.

  19. My huntin’, shootin’, and fishin’, friends, North of the Border, are settled nicely behind their single malt’s tonight, comfortable in the knowledge that Scotland’s Tory heritage is still working to counter the rabble rouser’s of a leftie disposition. Scotland is fundamentaly a conservative nation, and Salmond will realise this on Friday.

  20. Oldnat

    Yes, sorry. I realised that’s what you meant after I’d posted. Still, I enjoyed the image I conjured up for myself.

  21. “Radical Independence Group have plans to bus non voters and cram them into polling booths, it’s going to get ugly.”

    They’re going to RIG it?

  22. Ken

    You did realise that there was an inevitability that someone would ask you what was the missing word between “malt’s” and “tonight”?

    (We’ve all done it!)

  23. I think polling companies [Anthony can confirm this] ask questions, note the answers and then collate them.

    They are then what they are.

    In a simple “yes/no” poll it is not surprising that, as we reach a decision, they end up almost identical.

    There is still, in my view, a good chance though that the result will be slightly different to the converging polls, as no-one is listening to your tick – not even a friendly pollster.

  24. Eight (?) polls in last 3 days, all showing No ahead. Mean lead 4. Little movement outside MOE. I think we’re home but not entirely dry. Yes relying on either disastrous pollsters or a hidden swing of extraordinary proportions. The most exciting polldrums in recent memory?

    After the dust settles on Friday and assuming a No, Westminster polls will acquire new significance. How much will Cameron’s and Miliband’s flat indy ref performances matter? Will Brown’s barnstormer help Labour in E&W? Can I replenish my supply of Clynelish in sterling or groats?

  25. “Radical Independence Group have plans to bus non voters….”

    Very sporting of them, but I really hadn’t realised there was a significant French unionist population in Scotland.

  26. Muddy Waters

    I was astounded at your suggestion that there was a “disused, secret government facility”!

    Surely all the disused ones have been given away and the used ones sold off at the Barras.

  27. No idea if the claims are true but if the intimidation has been as bad as reported by the Independent (some irony there?) the Noes could do rather better than predicted in the secrecy of the polling booth.

  28. Alec

    Tres bien!

  29. And next week we have the Labour Conference to entertain us.

  30. Has there ever been an election in which all the polls were this similar?

    The AV referendum had a 20 point spread between the YouGov and ComRes final polls, and that was a binary choice election as well.

  31. @Mactavish. Replied in previous thread.

    @Anyone. Sky news did a poll. Posted about it in previous thread.

    Has anyone any idea of how the polling stations are going to be monitored by either / both sides? I assume neither side trusts the other to play a fair game.

  32. OLDNAT………I’m babysitting tonight, and , having just returned from a wonderful fortnight in Sardinia, I couldn’t possibly engage in a semantic debate with you, the wine I recommend is, Rocca Rubia, believe it or not, served slightly chilled. :-)

  33. RogerH

    I spent many years teaching students to look at any source, and ask themselves whether they would have any reason to bias their narrative, before accepting their story without question (which I’m glad you don’t do).

    Sometimes, that can tie into their being part of (or simply repeating) a created narrative.

    This report in the (No supporting) but pretty balanced Herald is worth a careful read.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/police-warning-over-indyref-tension-claims-after-mcconnell-tweet.1410945574

  34. Oldnat

    You’d think so, wouldn’t you? But I gather that they’ve held on to a few locations to turn into post-no Centres for Nationalist Self-Reflection and Re-education.

  35. Know margins of polls over last two days, to 1dp where tables available:

    Today
    YouGov 4% (no tables yet)
    Survation 6% (ditto)
    Ipsos Mori 2.5%
    Panelbase 4.3% (and 5.1% after forced choice)

    Yesterday
    Survation 3.9%
    Opinium 4.8%
    YouGov 4.8%

  36. Ken @ 10.28 pm:

    The wifie of the factor of the biggest hunting/shooting/fishing estate in NE Scotland is an SNP councillor, so you can`t assume anything is as clear cut as you dream.

    I passed through this estate yesterday, and didn`t see a single poster Yes or No.

    Maybe these SNP folk are among the 25% of the party voting no. Just possibly they are relishing the end of the EU Habitats Directive, so there will be no protection for Scotland`s wildlife between the time that independence actually occurs and Scotland is admitted to the EU. That will give some rogue estates plenty of time to do irreparable damage. Not that this estate management or the great bulk of YES voters would want that to happen.

  37. I live , work and socialise in central and west Glasgow and the Highlands . All I’ve noticed is Yes badges and window posters everywhere and a carnival atmosphere amongst the young .

    I do not recognise the claims of posters above re post election flare ups . More like wishful thinking on their part , shellshocked at the strength of the Yes vote .

    The country mile win for No has become a pathetic splurge to the finish with bribes thrown in which they know they can’t deliver , risking the whole issue being reopened within a year .

  38. COLIN………My gay friends embrace Gordon in a sort of sympathetic way, it’s a shame, and shows how far we still have to go.

  39. Muddy Waters

    I’ll report back after my incarceration, and let you know if they are as badly managed as the No campaign was. :-)

  40. Can anyone give any idea, regardless of how close a (hypothetical) NO win, whether another Scottish independence referendum will take place?

    I mean the decision lies with Westminster and surely the rUK electorate will not be receptive to the idea of another union referendum in which they will not have any say? Secondly, future Westminster governments may be fiercely opposed to the idea of taking a punt like Cameron did?

  41. OldNat

    Ken

    You did realise that there was an inevitability that someone would ask you what was the missing word between “malt’s” and “tonight”?

    The missing word was ‘distillery’ most of Ken’s North British friends have their own (or indeed several) and many may fail to make it back to the baronial pile after claiming their “angels’ share”. At this time of year their faithful retainers tend to leave them where they lie, after cushioning them with bracken (in the hope of giving them some obscure form of cancer).

  42. @CMJ

    “Glasgow and Mid Scotland and Fife look like bell weather areas… Whoever is winning those will probably take home the bacon.”

    Errmmmm… don’t you mean mutton?

    ;)

  43. ON

    I don’t think that would even be possible. But it doesn’t matter. According to my records, your recuperation and decontamination programme isn’t due to start until October 2015. There’s a lot of people to get through (more than we expected, as it turns out), and you’re a fair way down the list.

  44. ROGER MEXICO………..I don’t know that many distillery owners, but I wish I knew more, they tend to be entrepreneurial wealth creators, and very good company. Although I’m certain of the nae result, I’d still spend plenty of time in Scotland, enjoying the hospitality, and, of course, spending my money, even were the impossible to occur.

  45. AW………..Just a bit rusty, thanks. :-)

  46. DAVID WELCH……I think it’s a inappropriate to advertise one’s political affiliations via one’s home, common even, so, it’s no surprise to me that estate owners choose not to emblazon their properties with a sort of lurid tribal display.

  47. 55 /45 to no or better. Job done

  48. Bing is now showing 51.3% No and 48.7% Yes.

    That’s another swing to Yes – up by 0.6% since yesterday.

    My personal feeling is that yes will do it, by a tiny margin – I think it will be 50.2% Yes 49.8% No. Hope I’m wrong, but it really looks like momentum is going the Yes way.

  49. I wonder if it could be rather like 1987, with the Yes campaign playing the part of the Labour Party. The Noes have had their rogue poll and ‘wobbly Thursday’ but the fundamentals remain in their favour.

    55-60 for the Noes (but as much in hope as expectation).