Ipsos MORI still have a final final poll to come in tomorrow’s Evening Standard, but they also have a Scottish poll out tonight for STV. Topline voting intention figures with changes from their previous Scottish poll, right back at the start of August, are YES 49%(+7), NO 51%(-7). As with the YouGov, TNS and ICM polls they’ve shown a big shift towards YES over the last month and, as with everyone else, they end the campaign with YES and NO extremely close, but NO just an inch ahead. I’ll add tables later on…

128 Responses to “Ipsos MORI penultimate poll shows YES 49, NO 51”

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  1. Must have missed that Chris.

  2. And does one really think the event is closed if Free Scotland loses by whisker?

    I dont.

    I think Blair will go into the history books for the disaster of Iraq and for breaking up the UK (ok, it my take next referendum in ten year’s time)…

  3. Jack, I doubt the Westminster or the rest of UK electorate would put up with another referendum for next half a century or so.

  4. I don’t know what all the fuss is about, it’s blindingly obvious that that nae’s will have it, the romantic appeal of independence might affect those of a naive and impressionable disposition, but after the rabble rousers have left for the pub, the cold light of day creeps in. Scotland, by any measure, is better off in the UK. IMO, of course. :-)

  5. Scottish Independence Poll (YouGov):
    YES – 48%
    NO – 52%

  6. Scottish Independence Poll (YouGov) out:

    YES – 48%
    NO – 52%

  7. YouGov tonight: Con 33 Lab 36 LD 8 UKIP 13 Greens 5 Lab lead 3%

    Lib Dem and UKIP surge. Green slump and Lab and Con each down by 1.

    Double reverse swingback for the two main parties.


  8. Scottish Independence Poll (Survation):
    YES – 47%
    NO – 53%

  9. @chrislane1945

    Can’t see that. 2001 & 2005 they were bang on.

  10. @Crossbat – “Double reverse swingback”

    Isn’t that move a difficulty factor 5.5?

  11. On those Yougov figures, the Lib Dems just need to win 2% off Labour to get into hung parliament territory.

  12. Knock a bit off the yesses for the ole bully, bluff and bluster and its a fairly clear no.

    Whatever the precise figure the yes camp will have to acknowledge that OVER HALF of Scots residents do NOT wish to break up the existing Union.

    When I say “have to” I don’t of course mean that that is what they will do.

    It will be the fault of the Westminster [viz English] elite, not the free votes of their countrymen, women and scottie dogs.

  13. Gordon Brown is so camp, I’m beginning to wonder ! :-)

  14. All the polls, Better Together? They certainly seem to have formed a huddle!

  15. The survation poll was apparently done on the phone tonight.

  16. Survation and the Daily Record have just put out another poll. This one shows yes on 47% and no on 53%, with don’t knows stripped out.

    The figures with don’t knows included are:

    Yes: 43%
    No: 48%
    Don’t know: 9%

  17. alec

    You’re thinking of TRIPLE reverse swingback – with pike.

  18. @Alec

    “Isn’t that move a difficulty factor 5.5?”

    Indeed, and painful too! :-)

    On the latest clutch of Indy polls I’d say, very tentatively, that unless something rather extraordinary takes place tomorrow, NO are probably just about across the line. Might only be a question of the winning margin now.

  19. @”Gordon Brown is so camp, I’m beginning to wonder ! :-)”

    There were rumours at one time if you remember Ken.

    I always found them a bit bizarre-but I know what you mean. He has the face & voice of Desperate Dan, and body language of Larry Grayson.
    It can be confusing.

  20. Speaking to everyone I know – Gordons speech was 10/10.

    It’s a shame the only poll we will see showing its effect will be the referendum.

  21. New thread. :-)

  22. @R&D

    There’s about half a million non-scots living & able to vote in scotland ain’t there?

    Out of presumably ~3.5million votes?

  23. Sky News tweeted this at 9pm. No idea as to any of the behind the scenes stuff.


    Suffice it to say, the on-line folk tend to be non-pensioners, and are getting an alternative to the mainstream media. The problem is that the older folk are not for turning.

    So I wouldn’t put much stock in it, other than to confirm that on-line folk are getting both sides of the debate, more than folk not on-line.

  24. I don’t say this lightly, but Gordon Brown might actually swing this. I have never been a fan but credit where it is due, this might yet be his finest hour.

  25. I’m getting very excited about tomorrow – another election all-nighter.

    Looking through my spread sheets, due to the size of electorate and the mid ranking in order of nationalist support, Glasgow and Mid Scotland and Fife look like bell weather areas.

    Whoever is winning those will probably take home the bacon.

  26. Radical Independence Group have plans to bus non voters and cram them into polling booths, it’s going to get ugly.

    I have a sad feeling Scotland has become deeply polarised and Yes voters, despite their extraordinary campaign efforts and enthusiasm , might be in for a massive anti-climax and grief on Friday. There is going to be street trouble. I can’t predict the scale or duration of it but it’s not looking too good.

  27. @Mactavish

    I think the polis are fairly competent:


  28. I’d expect street trouble either way – but probably less with a No than a Yes, a No will create temporary backlash sentiment but will be calmed by the SNP who don’t want to look like they fired up a bunch of thugs.

    A yes, on the other hand, would lead to a much more fractured situation where a victorious SNP would have to take charge of people who don’t want to be in their new Scotland, and where the No leaders will not be in power and won’t have an incentive to step in. That coupled with the divisive negotiation stage and Salmond’s various bluffs being called could make things very nastily divided and see prolonged unrest during a separation period.

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