Two days to go until the referendum, and we starting to get the final “eve-of-election” polls. Three of them should be out tonight – ICM’s final poll for the Scotsman, Opinium’s final poll for the Telegraph and a Survation poll for the Daily Mail. As at the weekend, I’ll update this post as they come in.

ICM’s poll for the Scotsman shows YES on 41%, NO on 45%, don’t knows on 14%. Excluding don’t knows that works out at YES 48%, NO 52%. Last week ICM did two Scottish polls – a traditional telephone one for the Guardian which showed a two point lead for NO, and a rather unusual online one for the Sunday Telegraph showing an eight point lead for YES – far and away their best showing in any poll. However, the ICM online poll had a small sample size and seemed to be a Scottish boost to a GB poll rather than a bespoke poll in its own right, so we were a bit dubious about it. Today’s poll suggests we were right to be sceptical – a bespoke, full size ICM online poll is bang in line with the rest of the pack.

UPDATE: Almost as soon as I’d posted Opinium’s Telegraph poll also appeared, with identical headline figures of YES 48%, NO 52%. This is almost the same as their poll for the Observer at the weekend which had a 47/53 split. Tabs for the Opinium poll are online here (I don’t think the ICM ones will be up until the morning).
Survation is the final confirmed poll of the night, and I’m expecting that at 10pm.

UPDATE2: And Survation are also showing YES 48%, NO 52%. Tabs are here. Once again, it very similar to their previous poll which was showing 47/53. Three polls tonight, and all three showing a 48/52 split. The referendum polls really have come into a very tight consensus now, updating my list from the weekend we now have levels of YES support (excluding don’t knows) of:

Panelbase (online) 49%
ICM (phone) 49%
TNS (face to face) 49%
YouGov (online) 48%
ICM (online) 48%
Opinium (online) 48%
Survation (online) 48%
Survation (phone) 46%

The final polls tomorrow (and for MORI Thursday morning) may pick up very late swing, but barring any surprises it looks like the polls are going to be predicting a narrow victory for NO.


325 Responses to “Latest ICM, Survation and Opinium polls all show YES on 48%”

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  1. @Shevii

    I agree about IVR. There is, however, no real way of forcing people to register.

    Whenever this subject is brought up I always point out that if voters fail to register it doesn’t just stop them from voting themselves, it also reduces the representation of others in their constituency. This is because the Boundary Commission will redraw the boundaries as if those unregistered voters didn’t exist, expanding those constituencies with a lot of unregistered constituents, and giving each of the constituents a smaller share in an MP as a result.

    We surely wouldn’t want to restrict access to MPs to those voters who have registered, so the only solution is to count unregistered voters as abstentions (which is what they effectively are) and move to a system of constituencies based on population assessed by census results – as is done in most other democracies.

  2. Thomas

    In terms of polling, Nick Robinson reported that he had been told BT were expecting at least 56%.

    That’s it then. Robinson, who predicted David Miliband was bound to win just 3 minutes before Ed did, has given his kiss of death. Salmond can organise the victory parade now.

    Mind you I don’t see why the Yes campaign is getting so irate alleging that Robinson is patronising, biased and ignorant. Why do they think Scotland should get different treatment from the rest of us?

  3. With rare exceptions on either side I don’t believe there is any serious anti Scot or anti-English feeling.

    What there is, from the unionist perspective is a great deal of anti-bulls*it irritation and some anger also.

    We are, at heart, a socialist country and would like to bugger off so that we can be wealthier does not strike me as a very inspiring mantra.

  4. @PI

    “This is because the Boundary Commission will redraw the boundaries as if those unregistered voters didn’t exist”

    I think there is a strong chance that an incoming Labour government will change the rules, for instance so that the basis for representation is the population according to the most recent census. I would also hope that at-polling-station registration will be introduced.

  5. full Gordon Brown speech, it really is quite something

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J39bBV7CBJk

  6. Scottish Independence Poll (Panelbase):
    YES – 48%
    NO – 52%

    YES – 45%
    NO – 50%
    (DK) – 5%

  7. Seems to be the final numbers; any shifts on the day will suggest the methodology complaints

  8. If the papers are right there is increasing anger among Tory MP’s that Cameron has sold them out.

  9. It’s an interesting poll. No on 50% with undecideds included.

  10. We surely can’t have 4 pollsters identical?

  11. Having moved house recently, the IVR comments above have prompted me to re-register in the last half hour. I must say I found the online process quick and easy.

    I’m slightly uneasy about the way in which NI number is becoming a de facto ID number, though. If we’re going to be tracked by government IT schemes anyway, we might as well have a proper national identity scheme with card (just a basic one to prove ID, not the all-bells-and-whistles one that was trialled and abandoned at vast cost a few years back).

  12. I think we can now call it for No with great confidence.

  13. mactavish

    I have called it for no with great confidence for the entire campaign.

  14. JohnKay,

    Come the Revolution (“Vote Steve2!”), I’d certainly brining in a Citizenship Card to both replace the driver’s licence and also to prove entitlement to all UK services and benefits.

    Long-term visitors and their ilk would have similar cards of different colours to quickly show their relevant entitlements.

    Applying for a job? At a hospital? Applying for benefits? Stopped by the police? This one card would smooth the process and quickly have you on your way again.

    The Liberty lobbies are ill-informed if they truly believe that the Govt needs ID cards to track you. They can do that already.

  15. If Yougov come out with 52/48 (or anything more than 52) I think we know the result.

    Especially as polls showed 6-8% leads for NO when the postal votes were going out and stuff…

  16. @David Welch

    “Yes” has very much played on the “Now or never” theme. Or to quote their great poet Robert Henryson (fl. 1460-1500):
    ” The man that will nocht quhen he may
    Sall haif nocht quhen he wald.”
    By this they usually mean that those Stalinists Down South won’t let it happen again. At least that is what I supposed they meant rather than, as you suggest “Sign up now, before we get found out”.

    I don’t think, however, that the decision now or then will be based on anything as solid as economic facts – the politics (as always in my view) will decide it, and in politics plausibility is all. Devo max(ish) just adds to the SNPs plausibility

  17. @RnD

    Could just as easily be:

    “Stand firm Scotland. Would you rather be ruled in Scotland by nationalists who manipulate democracy for their own ends, as we are seeing now, or as part of the UK as a whole by politicians you can hold to account?”

  18. Steve2

    Yes, there is clearly a lot of cross-referencing going on between govt IT schemes, with NI number used as the link. I had to give it when changing my driving licence address.

    I have no civil liberties issues with a national ID card, but I think it should be free (we pay enough tax, for heaven’s sake) and voluntary . It would surely gain widespread acceptance because of the sheer convenience (no more recent utility bills to prove address; no need for a passport on EU flights), while objectors needn’t have one.

  19. @PostageIncluded

    Your handle makes me wonder about the cost of postage in the event of independence. I’m guessing that the Royal Mail’s obligation to provide equal cost of postage would no longer apply north of the border, so that the removal of uneconomic deliveries in the Highlands lead to reduced postage costs for the rest of us?

    Finally, a good reason for non-Scots to be in favour of a Yes vote.

  20. @JohnKay, Steve2

    I think a key consideration would be whether this card was regarded as proof of entitlement or proof of identity. Two very different things.

  21. Robin

    I think it should simply do what the name implies: prove identity.

    As far as I recall, it was the attempt to make it an entitlement card, carrying vast amounts of personal data, that sank the previous effort, overburdened as it was with too many functions. As in so much relating to (mis)government, KISS is the apposite acronym.

  22. new thread up

  23. Robin,

    There’s no reason why it can’t be both. JohnKay’s comments about it being voluntary are absolutely correct but if you want to be able to cut through the current bloated/duplicated bureaucracy of having to bring bills, passports, credit cards etc whenever you need to identify yourself, this is the simplest solution.

    Issue one with every passport, for starters?

    And there are very few adults around who aren’t carrying several forms of ID already.

  24. Four polls showing identical results from different samples and methodologies.

    Something smells.

  25. @ Neil A

    The old and new systems will run in parallel until, I believe, after the next General Election so if you were already registered under the household system you’ll continue to be so. That system will eventually be replaced by IVR, though.

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