As well as the Ashcroft and Populus polls earlier today we also have the monthly ICM poll for the Guardian tonight, reported here. Topline figures with changes from a month ago are CON 33%(+2), LAB 35%(-3), LDEM 10%(-2), UKIP 9%(-1), GRN 7%(+3). It shows a sharp narrowing of the Labour lead, but it’s almost certainly a reversion to the mean: the previous ICM poll had the Labour lead jumping up to 7 points when it had been previously showing Labour and the Conservatives pretty much neck and neck.

The poll also asked about English and Welsh attitudes to the Scottish referendum and to further devolution. As we’ve seen elsewhere, there is little support for a currency union with an independent Scotland amongst the rest of the UK – 27% of people say the remainder of the UK should negotiate a currency union, 63% they should not. Asked about more devolution in England, via regional assemblies or an English Parliament 45% think it would help their area of England, 42% that it would not.

208 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 33, LAB 35, LD 10, UKIP 9, GRN 7”

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  1. “SNP environment minister Paul Wheelhouse and Scottish Green Party co-convener Patrick Harvie announced yesterday that an independent Scotland will bid to hold the annual UN climate talks.”


    WOT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    This, combined with a policy of exporting snow, is pretty much the clincher surely ?!?

    Climate talks in…… gulp….. wee Scawtland !!!!!!!

    Bring on independence Forth-Bridge-Wuth.

  2. @AC

    “Would that be beneficial for Scotland and rUK?”

    It would be better than dragging it out. But not as good as a No vote.

    As Steve2 says, the Yes campaign has been suffused with the failure to recognise that independence means just that – independence. No longer will support be available from the UK. Best you get used to it. There’s certainly no advantage to the UK in giving handouts to Scotland to make the transition easier.

  3. New thread


    I think the reason I feel a lot more Scottish than I do English is because I moved to Scotland when I was 12 and and for the first 5 years you can’t really remember it, well at least I cant.

    Even after my first year in School my cousins down south said my accent changed…Moving to Scotland at school age really does put a different perspective on things. Had I moved to Scotland at a working age then I would probably have a different opinion on my identity.

    As for loosing your right arm….Listen if I thought a YES vote would cut off my left my relatives in England then I would be voting NO.

  5. ROBIN

    You may have a point but I would rather talks take its time rather than go for a quicky and get it wrong for both sides.

    It’s a two way thing…Both economies depend on each other but we shall see.

  6. @NorthumbrianScot – “Jeremy Paxman however has written an article in the Telegraph saying that it is a Scandal rUK voters were not given a say in the referendum.”

    It’s the Abraham Lincoln position. If something affects both parties, both parties must have a say.

    It’s also the position of the Lisbon Treaty – if the UK wanted to leave the EU, the other states will have to agree to it and ratify it. In the same way when a country joins the EU, there is not only a referendum in that country, but all the other states have to ratify it (by parliament or referendum). So for example if Turkey wanted to join but France didn’t want them to, it wouldn’t happen.

    There is nothing Unilateral about Unions at all. Both sides must agree. Because it is a contract.

  7. @Candy

    My understanding is that was the pre Lisbon position on Withdrawal.

    Post Lisbon is a more complicated constitutional fudge that requires a QMV agreement by the council to agree the terms but the withdrawal will come into force within 2 years even if the QMV agreement failed in council.

    Abraham Lincoln’s position also led to a war. He may have been justified on that occasion but I hardly think war in Ireland is a price worth paying to keep Jeremy Paxman happy.

  8. @ candy

    And both sides will agree as the UK Parliament will need to agree the terms of Scottish independence and legislate for it.

    And that wasn’t Abraham Lincoln’s position which was far more nuanced.

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