With what I assume are all Sunday’s Scottish polls in, where do we stand? Looking across the board at all six companies polling, two of them using two different modes, we actually have a broadly consistent picture. Excluding don’t knows, the Yes shares in the 8 different companies/methods are:

ICM (online) 54%
Panelbase (online) 49%
ICM (phone) 49%
TNS (face to face) 49%
YouGov (online) 48%
Opinium (online) 47%
Survation (online) 47%
Survation (phone) 46%

Seven of the polls are clearly clustered around a small lead for the NO campaign, with the one exception that rather odd looking ICM online poll with a smaller sample size than their usual online efforts. A lead of just a couple of points in a single poll is within the margin of error, but in this case all but one poll is showing NO ahead, so I think we can reasonably say that the polls are giving NO a genuine but small lead.

If the polls are broadly correct, and if nothing changes in the last five days, then NO look like they’ll have a narrow win… but of course those are two very significant ifs. It’s certainly possible for a race this tight to change within a few days and there have certainly been occasions in the past when the polls have had a systemic error of a couple of points in one direction or the other.


556 Responses to “Scottish polling round up”

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  1. @Alister1948

    “…Help, I have landed in Limbo, a place where an important referendum or election is always three days away.”

    I, too, was in Limbo, but I have escaped. On Thursday and over the weekend I will be in rural France, away from it all.
    If I spot Alex Salmond over there trying to drum up an army to invade England, I’ll let you know.

  2. Jack
    You said the same yesterday. I am not unique in seeing myself as British, like it says on my passport. To a foreigner I would say I’m British and live in London – England wouldn’t enter into it.

  3. @STATGEEK
    “English voters generally decide which government gets elected. See how England, the UK, rUK, Scotland and Wales voted: “ (Ref: link to v. interesting va)

    My point was that the Scottish electorate has three opportunities to vote to decide the issue as worded in the UK wide referendum we never had but should have had “Do you want the UK to be broken up, or would we all do better to continue to work, play and suffer together?”

    The three opportunities for Scots voters to decide the outcome and influence the terms of any separation are the Independence Referendum, the next UK General Election and the next Scottish Parliament Election which will decide the final terms of the divorce settlement.

    Your reference to the last GE vote proportions doesn’t alter the fact that English voters have had no say on the issue. I don’t remember any party campaigning throughout the UK at the last election for or against the dissolution of the Act of Union.

  4. The BBC undermines, doubtless unintentionally, the NO campaign, by putting on to Radio 4 their plummiest voices, such as Bridget Kendall anchoring the 10 pm news programme tonight.

    Bridget`s dialect is hard enough for some English folk to understand, and will be treated with derision by most Scots. So instead of absorbing David Cameron`s sincere and wise sentences, Scottish voters will be thinking how is it that such a minority dialect can be given so much airtime.

    I would estimate that we are now down to 2% of UK people speaking the advanced debased RP dialect, so their numbers should be fewer than BBC presenters from parts of the UK with populations 5% to 10%, like Geordieland, the South West and Scotland.

    In Bridget`s speech ohsk = ask, hahts = hearts, and squaw = square. But at least she doesn`t gabble in the irritating way of the two women we are stuck with on R4 Today.

  5. Two sets of figures I would be interested in post referendum would be:

    a) percentage of 16 & 17 year olds that voted and
    b) split between yes & no for those that did.

    Is there anywhere I could find them?

  6. @ JOHN B
    “I disagree on both counts. Very few of us feel bitter. Most of those who will vote Yes on Thursday just feel we could do a better job if we were left to govern ourselves. We may be wrong in that, of course, but at least it will be our decision.”

    I am very pleased that very few of you feel bitter. I am sure that must be true of most YES voters. I seem to have got the impression, though, possibly from listening to too much Salmond and some of the YES campaigners and some of the Vox Pops, that their campaigning zeal is fuelled by quite a large amount of bitter resentment at their neighbours, life in general and particularly at some rather important inconvenient truths.

    You also say:
    “Secondly, as I have explained before on this site, the English, Welsh and Northern Irish have already had their (your) say through the parliamentary vote which allowed the Referendum. Sovereignty rests with the Crown in Parliament, according to the English way of doing things, so if you feel that you were not consulted you may wish to take that up with your MP.”

    This is not so. The UK electorate is sovereign. Sovereignty is vested in Parliament, on a temporary basis. When a particular UK Parliament’s time is up, Sovereignty is handed back entire (See A.V.Dicey) to the Sovereign who then hands it back following the election to a new Parliament, to exercise as well as it is able, the Sovereign will of the UK electorate until its time is up, and so on ad infinitum.

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