With what I assume are all Sunday’s Scottish polls in, where do we stand? Looking across the board at all six companies polling, two of them using two different modes, we actually have a broadly consistent picture. Excluding don’t knows, the Yes shares in the 8 different companies/methods are:

ICM (online) 54%
Panelbase (online) 49%
ICM (phone) 49%
TNS (face to face) 49%
YouGov (online) 48%
Opinium (online) 47%
Survation (online) 47%
Survation (phone) 46%

Seven of the polls are clearly clustered around a small lead for the NO campaign, with the one exception that rather odd looking ICM online poll with a smaller sample size than their usual online efforts. A lead of just a couple of points in a single poll is within the margin of error, but in this case all but one poll is showing NO ahead, so I think we can reasonably say that the polls are giving NO a genuine but small lead.

If the polls are broadly correct, and if nothing changes in the last five days, then NO look like they’ll have a narrow win… but of course those are two very significant ifs. It’s certainly possible for a race this tight to change within a few days and there have certainly been occasions in the past when the polls have had a systemic error of a couple of points in one direction or the other.


556 Responses to “Scottish polling round up”

1 9 10 11 12
  1. Labour, Conservative, Libdem are all British nationalist parties. They all believe in the present system of Rule Britannia. All they’re interested in is how much they can milk the system. Wave the Union Jack, Bow to her majesty, and rake in the money. Thanks Britannia, but no thanks

  2. *Looks over shoulder* ANTHONYYYY!

  3. The polls show that a majority want to see the railways nationalised again. Royal Mail privatisation? Most were against. Bedroom tax? Who cares! Westminster will carry on as it will. Who asks the people?

  4. Russell, please go away.

    Your rants add nothing to anything.

  5. Who decides? Do we think for ourselves or do we read and accept what others have decided is best for us. The Scottish referendum has opened a whole new way of taking about politics. People to people.

  6. @Colin

    John Reid is wrong. It is code for “The Tories”.

  7. Ciao!

  8. @Colin

    Westminster is not code. Westminster is the cause of 99% of political unhappiness (across the UK). The oxbridge career politicians and all that. The English make up 85% of the electorate / seats, so Scots understand that they can’t change things from within Westminster. So they opt for something other than Westminster.

    It’s really that simple.

    As for people talking about intimidation, here’s today’s incident:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bxk8_ZNIMAE5_By.jpg

  9. MrNameless re Greens on independence.

    Former Scottish Greens convenor and MSP Robin Harper has come out against independence and is actively campaigning with Better Together.

    Interestingly he is staying within the Greens and will be campaigning for them in 2015/16 and doesn’t seem to have attracted too much adverse comment within the party (although some from other Yes campaigners).

    This perhaps contrasts with the (admittedly small number) of senior ex Labour figures in favour of independence who have all felt the need to leave the Labour Party in order to do so.

    I suspect quite a large minority of Scottish Green voters are not in favour of independence so it does them no harm in the long term to have senior figures on both sides.

    Whichever way the vote goes Patrick Harvie seems to me to have come out of the campaign with his reputation enhanced. I personally particularly hope we might hear more about Land Value Taxation at the next Holyrood elections.

  10. @NorthumbrianScot

    Yes, the Scottish Greens realised early on that their party was divided on the issue — I know there was a decision at conference which officially expressed tolerance of dissenting opinions. I suspect this doesn’t extend to office holders or elected representatives, but Robin Harper is no longer either, for all that he still gets a lot of respect in the party.

  11. @Lurker

    We’re not in disagreement.

    Based on current standings of seats, Labour would need an extra 11 seats to form a majority in parliament without Scotland.

    On the same basis, the Conservatives would need 29 seats fewer to form a majority without Scotland.

    In those circumstances, it’s the much enhanced prospect of a majority Conservative government across the remainder of the UK that worries me. And I view those claims that a vote for secession would be a vote for “social justice” in that context.

  12. @ Colin

    Re: Tommy Sheridan, I meant no slight to you whatsoever. I simply wanted to share with you why quite a lot of people find Tommy scary. He is ‘tough’, authentic & has genuine experience of the things which he talks about.

  13. Ashcroft National Poll 15 September, 2014

    Con 33%
    Lab 33%
    Lib Dem 9%
    UKIP 14%,
    Green 6%

    Link

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/09/ashcroft-national-poll-con-33-lab-33-lib-dem-9-ukip-14-green-6/#more-6374

  14. @ Phil Haines

    I would suggest that under the current situation, it is extremely difficult for the Tories to win an outright majority. It would instead be difficult unless the Labour vote was heavily depressed (as in 2010) and even then such a majority would be very small.

    But as I mentioned before, the impact of independence on the Tory party would mean that the party lost a lot of its raison d’être. What would be left to conserve? Plenty of Tory voters vote for the party as being the Union Jack party whilst still agreeing with railway nationalisation or protectionism or all sorts of policies which the Tories would not touch with a bargepole. Why carry on with them if the flag has gone?

    Of course, it would have an impact on Labour as well (and UKIP which would at least need a name change!)

    I believe the impact is more than just a better of electoral mathematics as people would be voting in future in a profoundly changed polity.

  15. northumbrianscot

    MrNameless re Greens on independence.

    […]I suspect quite a large minority of Scottish Green voters are not in favour of independence so it does them no harm in the long term to have senior figures on both sides

    We don’t need to suspect, we have some polling data. In Friday’s YouGov those who would vote Green in the Holyrood regional vote split Yes 71% to 29%; in Panelbase those who voted Green in the Euros split 80-20 and in Survation’s latest Holyrood it was 69-31.

    These individual polls (all in the last week) are only based on about 60 Green voters in each case, so the usual caveats apply. However the pattern is consistent and suggest that they split around 3 to 1 in favour of Yes. So there is a substantial No minority, perhaps reflecting the local/global tension that there often is in Green policy.

  16. @Statgeek
    ” Westminster is not code. Westminster is the cause of 99% of political unhappiness (across the UK).”

    So, using advanced mathematical techniques, we may discern that by getting rid of “Westminster” unhappiness will be reduced to a mere 1% of what it is currently.

    Sorry, mate, but I don’t buy that. It’s as silly as UKIP blaming everything on Brussells or the Tea Party blaming everything on Washington. Of course, if you have some polls that show that we all think a bomb on W1 would bring about a state of bliss throughout the land by all means share them. Otherwise an apology for wasting our time with your messianic fantasies must be in order.

  17. Afternoon all!

    Re: Lord Ashcroft’s poll. I presume that, as a staunch supporter of the UK as it stands, when we read ‘national poll’ we are to expect Northern Ireland to be included. If not, why not?

    Re: Tommy Sheridan
    For once (!) I find myself in agreement with Amber. Something must be wrong………

  18. Re: Nationalism

    I am amazed that supporters of Scottish independence seem to be called ‘nationalists’, but those who support the UK as a single State are somehow not ‘nationalists’. Strange use of language.

  19. Mine of 4.23

    I meant, of course, that Lord Ashcroft is a staunch supporter of the UK as it stands. I think that some of you will realise by now that I tend to be of a different opinion.

  20. @Roger Mexico

    Excellent – some facts! That tallies with my gut feeling from Green voters/activists I know. I’d have said somewhere between 2:1 and 3:1 for Yes so good to see the evidence reflects it :-).

  21. @Mr Nameless – others seem to have answered your question better than I can.

    @Statgeek – “Westminster is not code. Westminster is the cause of 99% of political unhappiness….”

    That’s the problem. What you say simply isn’t true, and even the most cursory glance at how Scotland works could tell you this.

    There are very, very many things that could be done to improve Scotland today that haven’t been done, and this is all under devolution. All woes are blamed on Westminster, which is a convenient way of Scots sliding away from their own responsibilities. It’s a fictional nonsense that perpetuates the notion of Scotland as victim which has stultified pretty much everything north of the border for years.

    For various reasons, devolved administrations have decided not to use powers they have, or have failed to reform where they could. Ask them why, not Westminster.

    The great thing about a Yes vote which I would actively look forward to is that it will force Scots to grow up.

    More Scots fought with the English at Culloden than against. It’s been the same throughout history.

  22. John B: Re: Nationalism

    I am amazed that supporters of Scottish independence seem to be called ‘nationalists’, but those who support the UK as a single State are somehow not ‘nationalists’. Strange use of language.

    “UK as a single state”?

    They are called Unionists as the UK is a union of nations…not one single state (just where did you get that from?).

  23. @Alec

    “There are very, very many things that could be done to improve Scotland today that haven’t been done, and this is all under devolution. All woes are blamed on Westminster, which is a convenient way of Scots sliding away from their own responsibilities. It’s a fictional nonsense that perpetuates the notion of Scotland as victim which has stultified pretty much everything north of the border for years.”

    Agreed. This is precisely one of my reasons for supporting the Yes campaign. it will force us to take responsibility again for our own country.

    As for ‘more Scots fighting with the English than against them’ at Culloden, I would make two comments:

    1. The ’45 was as much a Scottish civil war as it was anything else;
    2. Many Clans chiefs deliberately made sure they had relatives in b both armies, acting as officers, just to avoid being on the losing side.

    It was the post Sir Walter Scott world of Highland heroism which clouded the issue for a long time…..

  24. Steve2

    Are you saying that the UK is not a single state? News to me!

  25. Scots seem to be divided, within margin of error, 50/50 between those feeling that, compared to most of the world, they are very lucky people and those feeling bitterly unhappy at their unfortunate fate, being so little valued and so unfairly treated by the neighbours.

    I am sure that 99.9% of Scots would agree that they are very lucky, when compared to the English, in that they have three opportunities to vote to influence the outcome of the choice “Do you want the UK to be broken up, or would we all do better to continue to work, play and suffer together?” English voters have no say in the matter at all.

  26. @RPXPC

    English voters generally decide which government gets elected. See how England, the UK, rUK, Scotland and Wales voted:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxGvqo1IcAMUWS9.png:large

  27. Steve2

    Furthermore, how often do we hear the phrase ‘the whole nation’ referring to the whole of the UK? I would suggest we hear that fairly often, not only from politicians but from ordinary folk around the UK.

    Supporters of the Union are nationalists in exactly the same way that supporters of Scottish independence are nationalists; it’s just that most of them don’t realise it. I don’t mean to use the term ‘nationalist’ pejoratively at all, of course, in this context. I am using the term to indicate what someone defines as their nation, the people to whom they feel they ‘belong’ (given, of course, I agree entirely with the expression “One race, the human race” – I abhor racialism in any form from anybody.)

  28. @Postage

    A bomb would be silly. A referendum is far more civilised. We’ll stick to our methods…

  29. statgeek

    “Scots opy fro something other…..”

    You lot keeping forgetting to add the SOME in front of the Scots.

    This arrogant formula that:

    “I don’t like x, I am Scots, I live in Scotland, ergo all Scots within Scotland must necessarily be of the same opinion as me.”

    THEY ARE BLOODY WELL NOT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Read the polling returns.

    [And then the actual polls.]

    Frankly I am really sick of all of this. My idea of last year that those who are desperate for independence should move to the open spaces of Northern Scotland and those who are content to remain within a developing Union with the rest of us should take over the Southern bits seems petty good to me now, despite its satirical intent.

  30. @RPXCP

    I disagree on both counts. Very few of us feel bitter. Most of those who will vote Yes on Thursday just feel we could do a better job if we were left to govern ourselves. We may be wrong in that, of course, but at least it will be our decision.

    Secondly, as I have explained before on this site, the English, Welsh and Northern Irish have already had their (your) say through the parliamentary vote which allowed the Referendum. Sovereignty rests with the Crown in Parliament, according to the English way of doing things, so if you feel that you were not consulted you may wish to take that up with your MP.

  31. @ Statgeek,

    Westminster is the cause of 99% of political unhappiness (across the UK).

    The fact that stuff costs money is the cause of 99% of political unhappiness across the UK. Westminster is just the mechanism by which this reality is communicated to the public.

    Devolving power to national or regional assemblies or local councils might defuse some small amount of the unhappiness by enabling a closer fit between the stuff local people want, the stuff the government buys, and the level of taxation required to pay for it.

    But at the end of the day stuff will still cost money and people will still be miserable about it. They’ll just blame slightly different politicians for their misery.

  32. R&D – yours of 4.58

    To find myself in agreement with both you and Amber on the same day leaves me slightly worried; perhaps I’m more moderate than I thought!

  33. There’s a new thread btw, although we may not want to go over there because it’s not Scottish and Robin Hood is trolling it.

  34. Again we have Salmond claiming the No campaign are harassing the poor Yessers.

    Still no sign of any evidence other than his word though. No Yes signs being torn down, no bricks through Yes-supporting households and companies, no eggs being thrown at the Yes ministers….

  35. For non garlic speakers “Scots opy fro” = Scots opt for”

    The amusing thing about the 33/33 poll of Lord Wotsit is that it is as though the English elite are trying to say:

    “If the final push to bugger-off-ness is the fear of a Tory Govt then why don’t we just answer ‘Tory” for a couple of polls and help the process?”

  36. @Spearmint

    Aye, agreed. Reading through RH’s contribution would take too long as it’s nearly tea time……

  37. @Steve2

    No sign of any hassling of No voters, except your word for it, either. Personally I’ve not heard from first hand sources of any incident either way, which makes me suspect that it’s not really an issue at all for the vast majority of us. Probably more arrests at Saturday’s game at Dumbarton than the whole of the Referendum campaign…….

  38. @John B: “feel it incumbent upon me to ask if references to nationalism (e.g. RogerH 11.59 above) are equally applicable to British nationalism as to Scottish nationalism?”

    Can’t speak for others but my comment was about nationalism – not Scottish or British – so I would think it clear that they were applicable to both.

  39. I mean – we are talking about Scotland, are we not?

  40. John B: “Sovereignty rests with the Crown in Parliament in England”

    This sanctimonious tosh is one of the nats’ most tedious and ridiculous mainstays.

    As a democracy, sovereignty OBVIOUSLY rests with the English people. We vote on Parliament every five years and we are one referendum away from being a republic.

  41. steve2

    The BRITISH people please.

  42. R&D, My apologies to you….but, in my defence, the context of his comment was the English….

  43. @Statgeek

    Please provide the same figures for other groupings of <10% of the UK population. I think you'll find Scotland is far from unique in sometimes getting a givernment it doesn't want.

  44. @Colin: “If the writings of Stieg Larsson are anything to go by…”

    Possibly as useful as Ian Rankin’s writings to an understanding of Scottish society or Colin Dexter’s to Oxford.

  45. @John B: “I am amazed that supporters of Scottish independence seem to be called ‘nationalists’, but those who support the UK as a single State are somehow not ‘nationalists’.”

    I’m amazed that you’re amazed. The UK isn’t a nation so why would its supporters be described as nationalists? They’re Unionists. And why wouldn’t a campaign led by the Scottish Nationalist Party to give independence to the nation of Scotland be described as ‘nationalist’?

  46. John B

    I am amazed that supporters of Scottish independence seem to be called ‘nationalists’, but those who support the UK as a single State are somehow not ‘nationalists’. Strange use of language.
    ———————————————————–

    Listening some of the YES campaigning, I was surprised to hear that I was apparently an imperialist.

  47. @John B: “I am amazed that supporters of Scottish independence seem to be called ‘nationalists’, but those who support the UK as a single State are somehow not ‘nationalists’.”

    Also you’re forgetting, the (maybe very small) group who aren’t ‘Nationalists’ or ‘British Unionists’ but who believe that people/groups/nations etc are better when they are together.

  48. I can confirm that on my recent trip north I did not see any Yes posters vandalised, while I saw 13 No posters torn down or defaced.

    I can also confirm that there is a saltire flag and No sticker in a residential property in Coxhoe, alongside the A167 in County Durham. This has not been vandalised.

  49. ‘ but those who support the UK as a single State are somehow not ‘nationalists’.”’

    probably because I know no-one who considers themselves first as a a United Kingdom person. The UK is a legal identity but has no ‘national’ feeling; we all see ourselves as Scottish / English ? Welsh / NI. These are our nations bound by a legal thing called the UK.

  50. And if ‘No’ wins by a tiny majority does anyone really think it’s all over?

    I’m sure another referendum will occur – I can not see the SNP being allowed to withdraw the referendum from its platform by its members …

1 9 10 11 12