For the many people who keep on asking, here are the remaining Scottish referendum polls that I know about. It’s not necessarily exhaustive, there may be other polls out there still to come, but it’s the sum of my knowledge at the moment:

There is a Survation poll to come tonight, for the Daily Record
There is a YouGov poll for the Sun and Times on Friday
At the end of the week or weekend (not sure of the exact day) there is a new ICM poll
I think there is also a new Panelbase poll at the weekend

Next week there will definitely be final call polls from YouGov and Ipsos MORI, I’d expect both on Wednesday night. I imagine there will also be final polls from other companies like Survation and TNS who have regularly polled during the referendum campaign, but haven’t seen any confirmation yet.

There isn’t an official BBC/ITV exit poll for the referendum – these days you only get them for general elections.

UPDATE: Scratch the idea of a final TNS poll, they aren’t doing one. Post on the new Survation poll coming up later.


95 Responses to “The next Scottish referendum polls”

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  1. Those who are credulousness enough to imagine that statements by politicians are “guarantees” or even “offers” should note Hague’s comment –

    “The statements by the party leaders made on this in the last few days are statements by party leaders in a campaign, not a statement of Government policy today but a statement of commitment from the three main political parties, akin to statements by party leaders in a general election campaign of what they intend to do afterwards.

    “It’s on that basis they have made those statements.”

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/hague-giving-scotland-more-powers-if-it-votes-no-is-not-government-policy.1410350878

    Now, politicians do, sometimes, implement campaign statements. Usually, that happens if it’s in their political interests.

  2. Apologies for the addition of “ness” to “credulous”. Probably a consequence of having been in the Black Isle recently.

  3. In the absence of any other polls to corroborate the demographic shifts seen in the latest Survation poll, we can’t really read anything into it.

    Also as Statgeek said upthread, the No lead with Survation is the same as it was last time. As with Panelbase therefore, Survation shows a static race at this point.

  4. Bill Patrick

    ” In the event of a Naw vote, a canny party would make a federalist arrangement a big part of their 2015 manifesto. Putting an English parliament in Newcastle would work well both with “One Nation Labour” or a Tory party trying to continue to make progress in places like Stockton and Darlington. It might even help mitigate the LDs from getting wiped out in places like Durham and Redcar

    Spot on. Salmond may yet have his place in history as theman who brought federalism to the uk.

    @tark”

    Suddenly Salmond is looking both sectarian and a bit of a bully”

    Indeed. His problem with team Westminster jibes is that appeals only to the core vote. Fine in a general election where 35-40% will win, but not where you need 50+%.

  5. OldNat

    The mention of the Black Isle takes me back to my holiday earlier this year directly across the river in Ardersier. What a beautiful place Inverness and its environs are.

  6. @Statto

    Federalism is long overdue for UK/ rUK, whatever happens in Scotland.

  7. Will we be called the Federal United Kingdom? ;) (sorry if the jokes been done already!)

  8. Simple. The United Kingdom.

    We’re not going to be changing our name, nor our flag, just on account of the Scots.

  9. Martin

    Many, many times (a phrase which aficionados of Round the Horne may remember).

  10. Interested,

    A high percentage of the people I know are in the 16-24 range (and until recently so I was I!) and I would say that those who have expressed a view are split about 50/50, with very little in the way of discernable patterns. The main difference I’d say is that the Naws are more keen to talk about the referendum, but in an often detatched and scientific way, whereas the Ayes are less keen to discuss the referendum but do so in a much more passionate and opinionated way.

  11. RC

    Quite right! That’s why England continued to use the fleur-de-lys for so long. Bloody French!

  12. @OldNat

    And the motto: Dieu et mon droit

  13. This may be of interest for some on here-

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_mbtkOmVGc

  14. I had heard that 16 -18 were strongly NO whilst 19 – 24 were inclined to YES.

  15. Bill Patrick

    Very interesting, especially regarding how the two sides are looking at the referendum – do you know if there is any polling/survey data that supports it?

  16. Oldnat: “Those who are credulousness enough to imagine that statements by politicians are “guarantees” or even “offers”….”

    What’s your opinion of the likelihood of many of Salmond’s guarantees and offers, such as easy access to the EU, a currency union, Scandianavian-style welfare, a £1bn a year oil fund….?

  17. I hope this link to the Gruan works because it’s got some No/Yes analysis by region.
    http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/sep/10/scottish-independence-the-key-referendum-battlegrounds

  18. Steve2

    Your problem is that you think other people are as partisan as you!

    When I say, “I don’t trust politicians”, I mean “I don’t trust politicians”!

  19. I think English devolution is firmly back on the table in the event of a narrow No vote.

    As with the EU, the facts of the arrangement are almost incidental.

    If there is a No vote, and the outcome of the resulting change is that the English perceive that the Scots are having their cake and eating it, I don’t think either party would be able to afford to risk the potential electoral consequences of leaving it at that.

  20. Interested,

    I’m pretty sure there hasn’t been any questioning like that, unfortunately. Even just a few polls asking “What are the main reasons why you are voting yes/no?” sorts of questions would have been very intriguing. Some of the older people I know cite the debate over the Queen’s title back in the early 1950s as a major reason!

  21. And, on the Naw side, a lot of folks who have moved over from Ulster cite their unwillingness to unsettle things over there, and their sense of continuity between Belfast and Glasgow.

  22. Personally I think “more Devolution” is a bit of a red herring.

    Scotland has a parliament, its own legal system, control over its health and education systems and its own police service.

    It’s hard to think of anything much more that could be devolved that would make a substantial difference to the lives of the Scots. The only one I hear quoted is welfare benefits (c.f the bedroom tax). I for one have no objection at all with devolving that (they’re welcome to offer 2,3,4 or 10 bedroom homes to anyone they please if it’s from their own budget). But there’s no amount of devolution that will satisfy the itch, in my opinion.

    Historically, the more devolution Scotland gets, the stronger the support for independence.

  23. @Steve2 – indeed.

    Regarding a federalised UK, 3-4 regions in England, with the English assembly in Birmingham? Or Stoke, as Tristram Hunt suggested?

    Split tax into regional tax and federal tax, so that transfers can still happen to poorer regions, etc

    Interesting times. If no does win, I have an awful feeling Salmond will not be a graceful loser.

  24. @oldnat
    “Now, politicians do, sometimes, implement campaign statements. Usually, that happens if it’s in their political interests.”

    Very true. But Salmond doesn’t have to deliver on any of his promises – he cannot be held accountable if he doesn’t, as once enough ticks are in the Yes box, Scotland is independent, come what may.

    Westminster on the other hand, will have to deliver on the devolution roadmap, or face another majority SNP government in Scotland and another referendum in 2 years time. On that occasion, I suspect the outcome would be rather more certain.

    Re. convergence versus swing question earlier on the thread, I think a bit of both. YG swing always looked on the extreme side.

  25. Oldnat,

    Your problem is that you think everyone else in the world has a problem, Except You!

  26. @Tark,

    Why would there be an English Assembly if England were split into 3-4 regions? Wouldn’t there be a Northbumbrian Assembly, a Mercian Assembly and a Wessex Assembly (plus the London Assembly)?

    Isn’t the solution just a straightforward English Parliament. There’s no appetite amongst the English for breaking up England in my opinion.

  27. Neil A

    I’m sure that comment was based on something. It may have been a stray thought in your head, but that was no doubt something.

    What’s so hard about understanding that not trusting politicians is the (very sensible) default position of the majority of people?

  28. A single English parliament would be no devolution at all. What’s needed and long overdue is a set of regional authorities with real powers, probably following the Euro-constituency boundaries.

    If Labour hadn’t been so cautious, and had offered the NW an authority with teeth, we might be there already (and Scotland might well not be even considering independence from a state that was moving towards federalism).

  29. Statto

    “Westminster on the other hand, will have to deliver on the devolution roadmap, or face another majority SNP government in Scotland and another referendum in 2 years time”

    That’s an article of faith on your part, which doesn’t seem to have any substance in reality.

    Westminster can move an inch or two along the road map. They can reverse it altogether. The only consequence would be Scots voters not voting for Westminster parties at Westminster/Holyrood.

    Why should the Tories care about either of those possibilities?

    Since a referendum, along the current lines, requires to be authorised by Westminster under a Section 30 order, all they need to do is to refuse to pass such an order.

  30. Neil A – thats really a question for the people of England. I suspect you’re right though. Hain and Redwood were on Newsnight last night debating is it an English parliament or is it the cities. Pretty decent discussion and for me its a strong signal that their ain’t any going back on a new Scotland act.

  31. On the matter of “trust”, I quite liked Krugman’s point on C4 News this evening.

    AS-who distrusts “Westminster” politicians & has no faith in anything they do, has entrusted the entire Monetary underpinning of his Independence Project to them.

  32. Neil A
    I agree that there is little if any appetite amoung the English to break up Englan or in fact to break up the United Kingdom. However Scotland see things somewhat differentl. One thing I am certain of is this, regardless of the outcome in Scotland, polotics and aliegencies in the UK will never be the same

  33. Graham @ 7.34 pm

    The 16-18 yr olds might be worried about admission to top universities in England, perhaps wrongly.

    When within Aberdeenshire we had mock polls in all academies, the ones most against independence were the ones with the biggest percent of pupils likely to go to Oxbridge. So Banchory split 75/25 No/Yes, but Fraserburgh more like 55/45 (I give from memory).

    Of course this is related to parents` backgrounds, jobs and political allegiances.

    I have a grandchild hoping for Cambridge and very NO.

  34. For people asking about declarations and counts as has been stated up thread the count will happen overnight with each local authority declaring a result separately.

    I believe there will then be a formal declaration of the combined national result from Edinburgh as well but by that point we’ll all have been able to do the maths ourselves.

    I also understand that the broadcasters (BBC / STV / Sky News) are co-operating so that there will be at least a fixed camera at all 32 counts so each declaration can be fully televised.

    The authority I work for is expecting a reporter from each of those 3 to be at the count as well.

    The PA timings given above look about right but I’d caution the timing given for my authority looks a bit on the early side compared to what I’ve heard rumoured. With high turnouts expected some declarations could be very late indeed or even into the next morning.

  35. Situation poll out no ahead by 6% on 48 no on 42
    10% undecided bbc had it first

  36. Survation of course bloody autocorrection on ipad

  37. @Colin
    A clever point from a very clever man. Thanks.

  38. By next morning I mean possibly final results at 7-10am rather than the projected 3-6am times given by PA.

  39. New thread.

  40. On today’s issues I thought Cameron’s speech was strong, the “kick the F’ing Tories” line was self deprecating and funny and he came across as heartfelt. I was in the Tory PM coming to Scotland can only help YES camp but he seemed to strike the right tone (as an ABT voter this slightly pains me!).

    Major on the other hand has always struck me as a decent chap, who got out of his depth as PM but his remarks on Today this morning really seemed to show a complete absence of understanding the situation. If he really thinks the thing driving independence is Devolution and what we needed was another 5 years of Michael Forsyth instead then he’s really got no understanding of modern Scottish politics and should stay out of the debate completely.

  41. Tark, I’d return to the Labour’s nine English regions with no English national parliament. Instead I’d have the regional representatives meet to discuss the few nationwide issues that weren’t devolved to the regions.

    Give all 12 UK states and regions equal autonomy and tax powers over income, property, sales and business taxes and end this unjust mixture of autonomy that we have now.

    If possible, hand similar powers to local government too as they have in the USA among others.

    The Federal government also levies taxes.

    The separation of powers should be on the basis of ‘to the most local level’

    Maintain a single Inland Revenue to collect and re-distribute all taxes. Pay income tax where you work, property tax where you live etc. (eg. London will therefore be biased towards income and business taxes while the commuter belt in the SE leans more towards property and sales taxes).

    Set borrowing limits for all tiers at 150% of their tax income. With the all-level combined tax take at roughly 40% of GDP, this would equate to public borrowing being limited to the EU limit of 60% of GDP.

    Scrap Barnett and replace with a needs-based formula. The wealthier the area, the more they pay in, the poorer ones take out to invest in education and infrastructure.

  42. @Northumbrian Scot

    You should get some of those fellows from Sunderland to assist with the count. They are super speedy!

    I guess if we want a quicker count for elections we should devote more local authority resources to the job. In fact, I heard from people involved in the various London constituencies in the 2010 GE that the reason for so many delays WS due to meticulous verification. With smaller constituency sizes in Scotland this is unlikely to be as significant a factor in this election.

  43. Sorry larger constituencies but fewer voters.

  44. Panelbase will only be right all along if it is the case that very few people changed their minds in the course of the campaign. That seems unlikely.

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