A new YouGov poll of Scotland in tomorrow’s Sunday Times has YES nudging ahead in the referendum race. Courtesy of Tim Shipman at the Sunday Times, the topline figures excluding don’t knows are YES 51%(+4), NO 49%(-4).

The last month of Scottish polls from YouGov have been remarkable. Almost exactly a month ago, before the two debates, YouGov were showing a 22 point lead for the NO campaign, YES 39% NO 61%. This was fairly typical of their polls for most of the campaign, which had been floating at around about a 40-60 split. Since then three polls in a row have shown sharp movements towards the YES campaign, culminating in today’s poll giving the YES campaign a tiny lead.

51%-49% is, of course, well within the margin of error, the smallest lead you can get once rounded to integers. It doesn’t mean YES will necessarily win, and as ever it’s only one poll. There’s at least one other poll to come tonight, which may or may not echo the Yes lead. What will be fascinating to see is how a campaign that has, up to now, show a consistent NO lead for months changes in response to polls showing YES could actually win. Will people recoil from the risk of it actually happening? Will it enthuse people now it could be a reality? I’ll update later with the other polls.

UPDATE: There is also a new Panelbase poll out tonight, conducted for the Yes Scotland campaign. Throughout most of the campaign YouGov have tended to show some of the largest leads for NO, Panelbase have tended to show some of the smallest leads for NO. Given the movement towards YES in YouGov’s recent polls many people reasonably expected that Panelbase would be the ones to show YES ahead, in fact they still show a small lead for NO. Topline figures with changes from the last Panelbase poll in mid-August are YES 44%(+2), NO 48%(+2), Don’t know 8%(-4). Without don’t knows it’s YES 48%(nc), NO 52%(nc). In contrast to the collapsing NO position in YouGov, Panelbase are showing no real change – strange. We should have TNS and Survation polls in the coming week (and should be due an ICM at some point), so we’ll see what trends others pick up.

254 Responses to “YouGov show YES campaign ahead in Scotland”

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  1. The Labour HR constituency vote had dropped from 40% to 33% in just over a month.

    Regarding who is right Panelbase or YouGov. The momentum and mood is towards yes, lots if Labour Yes’s and lots of direct No to Yes switchers. So those that laughed at me regarding momentum on the ground. When you get conflicting polls you have to look at what is happening on the ground to judge who is right.

    Yes Scotland released Panelbase to dampen expectations. There is a suspicion that there was an unreleased Panelbase showing Yes ahead earlier this week. There are a few more polls in the works so we should know soon.

    As I said a week or so ago the delivery of polling cards concentrated people’s minds and that is when the poll changes started.

  2. Candy I am a fan of PR but not AV as I actually find it less proportional. Parties like Greens/UKIP may scrape in under first past the post, but AV allows the old main 3 to keep them out and focus on the centre ground too much. (it’d do well for the lib dems thats about all)

  3. couper2802 But the Panelbase fieldwork was also from mid to end of last week, 2nd-4th September, so overlapped with the timeframe for yougov

  4. Some facts about N ireland. 1 The Home Rule bill for all ireland was passed pre the 1914 war. The Westminster government asked the men of Ireland to fight with the British armyand wait for home rule until we won. 50, 000 died and at long last our Queen visited their graves in Dublin to honour them a year or two back.

    However parts of the British army threatened mutiny after the 1919 general election when Sinn Fein won 87% of the vote . This led to the creation of the Dail BUT the British then sent in the Black and Tans to “defeat” the rebels. The bloody war ended with tiny Irish forces fighting in uniforms under the Dail’s command led to the much disputed free state treaty. This left some rich and industrial areas some of whom were in ULSTER (so NO geography) like Armargh , the Canterbury of the Catholic Church in Ireland, in a new province with no history and split quite closely between Protestants and Catholics. the Irish rightly call this he “Six counties” Northern Ireland is a pure invention still not 100 years old. So compare this with Scotland. An ancient nation with its own laws and culture. So how would one ever agree which counties could stay in the UK???. i don’t think Cameron. or anyone would shell the NO voters as was done in Ireland. As for a referendum to create N Ireland I cannot recall any.Why anyway as the whole island of Ireland had so overwhelmingly suppported the dominion status promised pre war by about 9 0f every 10 who voted.

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