Scotland is likely to be the focus of polling for the next fortnight, but a brief update on the latest GB voting intention polls. Populus this morning has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 38%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 4% (full tables are here). Meanwhile today’s edition of the daily YouGov poll has toplines of CON 32%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16% (full tables here).


219 Responses to “Latest YouGov and Populus figures”

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  1. @ Martin
    ‘I was kind of aghast that they didn’t get the finality of it.’

    I think Westminster could still insist on a confirmatory Referendum – re- the terms negotiated – before agreeing to legislate.

  2. It is fact it’s been confirmed now. There are other polls due stay tuned

  3. Michael Deacon [email protected] 2m

    And here it is RT @Politico_Daily YouGov IndyRef poll Yes 47 +4 No 46 -3 Don’t Know 7 -1 Excluding Don’t knows: Yes 51 +4 No 49 -4

  4. On this eligibility question to vote in the referendum

    I would say that some subjects are linked to citizenship and not residence.

    If there is a referendum to leave the EU I personally think all people eligible to vote in a GE who are ex-pats have a vote in this. The reason being that the repercussions are felt by all British citizens wherever they live – in fact it may be even worse for those who live abroad. Citizenship is not something you can give fairly easily like residency.

    The Scottish referendum could be seen in the same way except that all Scottish potential citizens have the choice to stay GB citizens if they want. Emotionally that may be difficult though…..

  5. Wow. Just wow. (Assuming it’s true).

  6. YouGov

    Early August – Yes 39%. Now Yes -51%.

    So that’s either a 12% rise in the Yes vote in a month, or the much lauded YouGov used to have / currently have / have always had a really really poor methodology.

    I’m looking forward to previously enthusiastic supporters of Kellner and his team now giving them a mauling. :-)

  7. @ Old Nat,

    Er, I’m not sure what conversation you think we’re having, but I was replying to John B’s reply to me on the previous page about the Yes campaign’s prospects of winning the next round of the neverendum if there is a ‘No’ vote this time.

    We shouldn’t underestimate the Tories’ vitality, but at the moment demographics are strongly against them, and win or lose in 2015, either the leadership contest or the referendum is likely to strain party unity. There is a good chance they are looking at a long sojourn in the wilderness, and if I were a Nat (young or old) that would worry me.

    All this, of course, is relevant only in the case of a ‘No’ victory- if it’s ‘Yes’ you’ll just have to worry about trivial stuff like your currency and EU accession.

  8. Candy

    As the law stands at the moment, only UK citizens can vote in UK referendums.

    Nope. When referendums are called, the legislation for each will be define the franchise in that particular case. But I’m pretty sure that the AV referendum was on the House of Commons list which would include Commonwealth and Irish[1] citizens. And the Scottish one is effectively on the same list as for Holyrood with other EU citizens also getting a vote[2].

    [1] You may be getting confused with Ireland where you do have to be a citizen to vote on constitutional amendment referendums.

    [2] But not all legal residents. If you’re an American, Russian or Chinese citizen for example you still can’t.

  9. Graham

    I am still puzzled why Darling was not prepared to rebut Salmond’s Thatcher slur with the simple quip ‘ Why did the SNP help her into power in March 79 by voting with the Tories?’

    Well probably by pointing that there had to be an election by that October anyway, so at best it only brought the date forward five months. You might argue that Callaghan could have turned things round in that time, but it’s not the most likely scenario.

  10. @oldnat I am not sure why you would doubt the figures? It feels to me like No have run such a terrible campaign that I expected Yes to be ahead before now. If we (the English) lose you, we will be worse for it and I for one will never forgive the No campaigners.

  11. Spearmint

    Apologies.

    However, my post on the E&W data in the Populus poll is still relevant.

    With Lab only having a 3% lead in E&W, and others (including 14% UKIP and 8% LD) on 32% – that suggests a VI environment in which it would be somewhat rash to rely on traditional vote shares for the big two UK partiesdetermining the result.

  12. @ALl

    I have to just say ‘I told you so’.

    When YouGov was showing 61% Yes I said YouGov was wrong and in fact is probably still underestimating Yes.

    So all those that sneered I hope you will believe me now.

  13. Sorry 61% No if course.

    I did come in for a lot of patronising comment about the canvass returns and level of engagement but seems I am vindicated.

    Now what effect will this poll have

    1. More momentum to Yes
    2. Frighten folk back to No (will Scots bottle it?)

    Force the unionist parties into some panicked Devo-max offer ?

  14. Without rounding up or down the YouGov figures would actually be 49.45 – 50.55 Yes.

  15. Fareham Grecian

    But Kellner said that the YG methodlogy was so much better than Survation’s, and explained why.

    If the next Survation poll doesn’t show a stonking Yes lead, then some might doubt Kellner’s infallibility on indyref polling – and that would never do!

  16. Oldnat

    ” …..that suggests a VI environment in which it would be somewhat rash to rely on traditional vote shares for the big two UK parties determining the result.”

    Much though it pains me to admit it, but I absolutely agree with you on this one. There are several factors which make this UK General Election very unusual – e.g. the expected collapse of the Libdem vote, and of course the rise of UKIP. The two are not unconnected as it has been apparent for many years that a large part of the Libdem vote has been a ‘plague on both your houses’ protest. UKIP will pick up many of these votes (in England anyway).

  17. COUPER2802
    .
    2Now what effect will this poll have
    1. More momentum to Yes
    2. Frighten folk back to No (will Scots bottle it?)
    Force the unionist parties into some panicked Devo-max offer ?”
    _____

    I personally think the terror alert will raise and the UK will be sending troops to Iraq to secure the union, sorry safeguard Britain.

    “Now’s not the time to be thinking about independence when the UK is under extreme threat and we have committed our troops”

    I wouldn’t even be surprised if a terror alert was immanent for Scotland.

  18. GRAHAM
    Without rounding up or down the YouGov figures would actually be 49.45 – 50.55 Yes
    ___________

    I think that was the result of the Quebec referendum but the other way round which had Quebec lumbered with Canada.

  19. @Candy

    “And how interesting that in your reply you class people born in Scotland and working in England as as “foreign” as the French and Germans. Sheesh.”

    Not so. I only give an example where a referendum can be changed by the very people who don’t want the change.

    Let’s agree to differ. There will be a referendum and those voting will cast their vote. What you believe is or is not legitimate is not the issue.

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