Lord Ashcroft has published his poll of Clacton. Topline voting intention figures with changes from the general election are CON 24%(-29), LAB 16%(-9), LDEM 2%(-11), UKIP 56%(+56), full results are here. The lead is actually a little smaller than Survation’s (perhaps because the fieldwork was a little later, away from the immediate burst of Carswell publicity) but the ultimate story is the same, a huge great UKIP lead suggesting an easy win for Douglas Carwell.


506 Responses to “Lord Ashcroft poll of Clacton”

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  1. That’s a joke at the end BTW

  2. At last… something positive from a yes campaigner.

    (that was a joke too)

  3. Little Red Rock

    ‘We would then have something like Lab 288 seats, Con 296 seats, LD about 35.’

    Then we would have 5 more Year of Con-LD Coalition. We could also have more GNP growth if you include Sex Workers and Drug Deals. We would have less unemployed with more zero hour contracts and more unemployed being encouraged to seek self employment (Tax Credits) by incentive driven Private Contractors. Last of all I would have to eat my Hat.

  4. Hamish,

    Which part of the scenario do you see as so unlikely that you would set off down the millinery munching path?

  5. Couper – ” Sometimes they just work out the odds and make sure they will get an advantage no matter what. ”

    I think the aim for a successful bookie is *always* to do that!

  6. Statgeek @ 11.48 pm:

    I haven`t statistics on the background of Tory candidates in Scotland, and agree that many are landowners or businessmen. Which does not help their chance of success in urban constituencies.

    But our last candidate in West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine was a plain-speaking dairy farmer.

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