YouGov have a new Scottish poll out tonight, done jointly for the Sun and the Times and YouGov’s first since the second debate between Alex Salmond and Alistair Darling. YouGov’s previous poll showed a significant four point shift towards YES, narrowing the NO lead from 22 points to 14. Today’s poll doesn’t just confirm that, it goes further – topline figures are now YES 42%(+4), NO 48%(-3), Don’t know or won’t vote 10%(-1). Excluding don’t knows this is YES 47%(+4), NO 53%(-4).

This means that over a month YouGov have shown the referendum race coming right in from a pretty consistent NO lead of around twenty points right down to just six points. The sharp narrowing of the gap echoes the Survation poll after the second debate which had looked as if it was just a reversion to the mean. This suggests something more is afoot.

As ever, we should be careful of reading too much into a single poll – it’s the wider trend that counts – but it looks like this may go right down to the wire (and considering that YouGov tend to show some of the less favourable results to YES, does make one wonder what the next poll from a company like Panelbase might show).

UPDATE: Also out tonight is the monthly ComRes/Indy telephone poll which has topline figures of CON 28%(+1), LAB 35%(+2), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 17%(nc) and the daily YouGov/Sun poll which has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%


209 Responses to “YouGov Scottish poll shows NO lead dropping to six points”

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  1. that should be (12.45 am)

  2. @ Alec

    Basic schoolboy error as your compatriot Alan Hansen would say!

    @ Colin

    Those Yes voters reasoning and the UKIP rise is maybe telling us something that isn’t factored into the way we think the polls might go up to May next year. I know some have commented on the low support for the two main parties and how it could fall to around 70% but generally most people on here are expecting/hoping for swingback to their particular party when it comes to the crunch. Certainly the swingback to the status quo doesn’t seem to be happening in Scotland.

    I’m beginning to wonder if this will actually be the case and the figures we are seeing now aren’t far from the true result in 2015. There are plenty of unhappy bunnies around on both sides of the political spectrum with their own strong opinions on what is going wrong. The left look at services and taxation as well as privatisation as a cause for their woes. The right look at immigration and EU and regulations and taxes. There is probably even a lot of crossover- renationalisation and immigration/EU seem to be issues on both sides of the political divide.
    Add into that a feeling that some people are not as politically educated as they once were (switching from LD/Lab to UKIP for example) and I suspect you may find less tactical voting next time and people more willing to just vote for whoever they think solves their problems regardless of whether they can win or not.

    There was talk yesterday of how the Tories should return to One Nation Tories. Personally I think this is misreading the political environment right now. Most people have seen a big fall in living standards since 2008, I suspect most people now want a radical solution and many have lost faith in the mainstream.

  3. For future reference Peter, “Irish leader” would be a better example that Belgian or Portuguese leaders Peter.

    It’s a far more comparable example with Scotland, and despite the gap in knowledge being smaller, I’d still say that awareness of the French and German leaders is higher.

  4. SHEVII

    Thanks………..not sure what you are responding to/about-I only posted re Independence .

    Anyway-on the Westminster front I don’t have anything to add to what I have posted recently.

    NF is a real problem for DC-and an EU referendum isn’t a solution. Many of them don’t actually want it.

    I go with PK’s analysis-NF wants a Lab win-DC gets the heave ho or resigns. Cons have an internal bloodbath & join forces with UKIP. A Boris & Nigel leadership wins the next GE with over 40% of the vote on a platform of leaving EU; taking control of our borders & releasing UK economy from the chains of EZ rules .

    Not sure what DC can do about it.

  5. Agree about One Nation Conservatism Shevii. The difference between now and when it was very successful is that swing voters generally have everything they absolutely need (without wanting to make a political point, I’m unsure what the government of the day could possibly do to convince someone who could not possibly make any more compromises in order to keep a roof over their head and food in their belly to vote for them) but will not settle for that in the way that they would 50 or 100 years ago.

    Let’s acknowledge and then swiftly move on from the general factors that people throw into the debate when talking about quality of life: do people need the latest phone, latest fashion, enough money to go out five nights a week, to be able to afford to go to football, a budget for cigarettes, alcohol and takeaways and so forth. Some of those questions are relevant, but redundant to the main issue.

    We live in an age where access to telephone, television, internet and a vehicle for which the cost of fuel does not limit usage are increasingly considered rights and/or necessities, and for those reasons it’s difficult to see how one-nation politics could possibly create landslide conditions again.

  6. Colin

    I agree that the scenario you outline is probably right:

    A right wing UKIP/Tory amalagam

    A left wing[ish] Labour Govt

    A dunno-wot Lib Dem/Tory leftovers hoping for the best.

    Its a cunning plan if it is one but could be scuppered by EM being both radical and successful.

    Can’t see any alternative for Tories as they have been un-leadable since Thatcher was politely asked to stop being Prime Minister.

    Though I was please enough at the time and it is true that
    “the UK does not vote for a PM”, the reality is we do and it was a shoddy and opportune move which they have never recovered from.

    MT should have been voted out by the electorate.

  7. The Farage/Boris scenario is an interesting one.

    First, would two very large and very assertive personalities be able to work together successfully? It would be a challenge, as neither would sit easily with playing second fiddle.

    Second, while they would undoubtedly energise the right, I do think they would energise the centre and left against them – I know it is a sample of one, but my non-political, ‘slightly right of centre if forced to choose’ wife is visceral in her loathing of Farage. I suspect she is not the only one.

    I could see the country coalescing back into two major blocks and one minor one, with the left having lost those small ‘c’ conservative Labour voters who have jumped ship to UKIP, the centrists having lost the left-of-centre LibDems to the left, and the right having sacrified the ‘One Nation’ Tories to the centrists.

    We live in interesting times…

  8. I wonder whether Boris and NF have actually got much in common, apart from ambition and a hunger for publicity.
    Boris is strongly pro immigration, banks, big business, vanity projects all of which I suspect would sit badly with UKIP. He has recently come out as anti-EU but I’m not sure how deep the roots of that are.

    I just listened to an interesting podcast of From Our Own Correspondent containing a piece about Slovakia. The Czechoslovakian split was carried out without any referendum and yer man believes that both sides would have voted for the Czech version of Naw had they been asked. The view now is that people are quite happy with it, and more friendly than they were when stapled together. The Slovaks no longer moan about being bullied by Prague and the Czechs no longer moan about subsidising Slovakia. As the man said, sounds familiar.

  9. Lawrence B 8.37 am:

    The ease with which people can speak out on their voting intention surely depends on location and judging the likely view of those assembled.

    In our fairly prosperous part of Deeside my wife has twice in the last two days encountered groups of ladies unanimously saying they are voting no, one lot around a table at a coffee morning yesterday.

    I have fewer encounters with groups of men, but I did today near Aberdeen run into a farmer separating his ewes from their lambs, in preparation for sending the latter to market. After chatting briefly on the pleasant weather for this job, he started up about the decline in prices for fattened lambs, and how Tesco have been selling Scotch lamb at TWICE the price of New Zealand lamb.

    “They don`t care in London” and “things won`t change no matter what happens (on Sept 18, I presumed)”. I should have rejoined that if there were a combination of SNP and Labour MPs at Westminster putting pressure on such firms, as well as the Holyrood parliament, then there would be a better chance of reasonable treatment from Tesco. And this to apply across the whole UK.

    But foolishly I mentioned Donald Trump dictating to us from New York, which brought invective and “that man should be shot”. We both decided then to get on with our jobs.

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