The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is up here. Voting intentions are CON 32%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16%. The 16% for UKIP is the highest YouGov have shown them at for three months, just after the European elections. It’s likely that the publicity over Douglas Carswell’s defection may have helped this, but remember YouGov have updated their methodology since then which has also boosted UKIP by a point. A defection is pretty quickly forgotten though, the real kicker from the Carswell defection is the by-election that comes with it, if UKIP win that by anything like last night’s Survation poll suggests expect a much more concrete impact on the polls.

YouGov also asked again about Western intervention in Iraq. Support for humanitarian intervention (77% support) and American air strikes against ISIS (56% support) are broadly unchanged. Support for RAF participation in air strikes is 43%, down 2 points since a week ago. It’s not a significant change, but it suggests the steady growth in support for British airstrikes that YouGov had been recording has now halted. People are slightly less supportive of extending air strikes against ISIS into Syria – 45% would support US airstrikes in Syria (24% opposed), 37% would support British airstrikes in Syria (37% opposed).

86% of people think that British citizens going to fight for Islamist forces pose a threat when they return here, and 79% think British citizens fighting for ISIS has increased the risk of terrorist attack on Britain.

Turning to the situation in Rotherham, 75% of people think that Shaun Wright, the South Yorkshire Police Commissioner, should resign from his post. 74% think any other people in senior roles in Rotherham council or police at the time of the child sexual exploitation scandal should also resign. More generally YouGov asked if people thought that when an organisation commits serious errors the people at the top should resign anyway, or should they only resign if they are personally at fault. It was an even split – 42% thought an organisations leaders should resign in the case of serious error even if they were not personally to blame, 43% that they should only go if they were personally to blame.


361 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 32, LAB 36, LD 7, UKIP 16”

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  1. @”he surge in credit card lending was in new lending – up from £655m to £1.1B in July.”

    What is the relevance of new lending ?-people make repayments too.

    What matters is the level od debt, and the ability too repay it.

    The figure of relevance is Total Outstanding Credit Card Debt.
    BoE provides these numbers , which were :-
    £bn
    April £57.2
    May £57.2
    June £57.2
    July £57.4

  2. HOWARD

    You should live more frugally.
    This will increase your bank balance & your intellect.

    :-)

  3. Whenever I see the name Stephen Fisher I think of the shady MI6 figure in New Tricks played by Tim McInnerny and when Angela Rumbold comes up (as she did here a few days ago) I think of Mr Rumbold of the sticky out ears from Are You Being Served.

    I should most certainly get out more.

  4. PETER CRAWFORD

    @”now the left might not like this type of politics ”

    They will like it even less if/when NF’s Grand Plan emerges and NewRight , lead by a Boris/Nigel team sweep to power with 45% of the vote.

    lol

  5. Peter Crawford

    “now the left might not like this type of politics but it’s a constituency in the country which the tories used to appeal to, which they have totally alienated.”

    We don’t often agree but I’m with you on that comment. I would add in gay marriage as well as a strong alienating factor. Cameron has admitted as much himself.

  6. @PHIL HAINES

    “What is a “marginal” seat depends on the expected position of the parties at the next election, not the result at the last. Marginal seats in my book are those which the sitting party has a fair chance of losing.”

    ———-

    Well sure, if a party is ahead in the polls, that might make their MPs in seats with the smallest majorities less nervy. But they will still tend to be more at risk than others, and when the poll lead isn’t that big, they might fear for their positions should the dreaded swingback occur,

  7. We don’t often agree but I’m with you on that comment. I would add in gay marriage as well as a strong alienating factor. Cameron has admitted as much himself.

    you’re right. i totally disagree with you about the likely outcome of the next election. you’ve slightly shifted your position post -clacton, i notice, but mine hasn’t changed at all.

  8. Colin
    I get the bank balance bit, thank you, but one’s intellect improved by starvation? Thanks to LRR (and a welcome from me) for the explanation. It’s a waste on me, because I just go by the polls to learn if voters are feeling skint or flushed.

  9. the other howard-

    that last comment was addressed to you who seem slightly to be rowing back from the tory triumphalism he was espousing at the beginning of the summer.

    what ‘s changed?

    on marginals…

    The term marginal always refers to the previous election, so Clacton technically isn’t a marginal….bolton west is a labour held marginal, but the chances of labour losing this are very slim.

  10. “You should live more frugally. This will increase your bank balance & your intellect.”

    ———-

    See, now, quite often, I find spending can increase the bank balance…

    For intellect, one can recommend this board, especially post-midnight when it’s like the Open University. Last night it was Stonehenge… sometimes, it’s nuclear energy… if you’re really patient, sometimes they cover Independence…

  11. The Italian newspaper La Repubblica is rumouring (verb?) that Putin told Barusso on the phone that ‘I can be in Kiev within two weeks if I want’.

    I have previously wondered if the Ukraine invasion could move politics here and we may be on the verge of that event. However I admit it hasn’t really sunk home yet, in the UK.

  12. @HOWARD

    “Colin I get the bank balance bit, thank you, but one’s intellect improved by starvation?”

    ———-

    Colin is like our own Matthew Parris, showing how the hard-pressed can get by on a bag of lentils or summat from Lidl. As opposed to saving time and socialising and varying your diet by eating out.

  13. Ukip produced a new rule book in 2012… it’s since been ammended eight times. It’s possible Mr Lord hadn’t read it.

    When it comes to the general election, Ukip’s NEC reserves the right to instruct a branch/association to not nominate/stand down a candidate “at any time”.

    I would guess that this stipulation was intended prepare the ground for potential pacts. It would also overcome problems which arose in 2010, when some of the candidates who had been instructed to stand down in favour of Conservative eurosceptics defied the leadership.

  14. @Colin: “What is the relevance of new lending ?-people make repayments too.”

    The figures in the BoE stats are net increases.

    £1.1bn was the net increase in outstanding consumer debt from June to July.

    Credit card net outstanding debt increased by 0.6% from June to July – compared to a 0.3% increase from May to June.

  15. Peter Crawford

    ” tory triumphalism”

    Peter, you seem to have missed the many posts in which I have made it clear that I am not a Tory. I am a Libertarian economically and very conservative socially. The Government I want will never get elected because current British Society is too soft (and afraid) to take the hard decisions needed to resolve our problems. I would prefer a Tory Government to a Labour one only because I think our national decline will be slower under a Tory administration. I am very anti-Labour and have been all my adult life. I continue to think that Labour will not win the election because they do not have a coherent set of policies to run a modern economy and I choose to believe that the voters will come to the same conclusion when they come to vote in 2015.

  16. CARFREW

    MP doesn’t lecture people on lifestyle so far as I recall.

    His own centres around travel , walking, marathon running, the rural life in Spain & Derbyshire.

    He’s a bit of a Spartan is our Mathew-quite like him actually.

    :-)

  17. @Colin

    Calorie-restriction has been advocated for decades, but these things can be more complicated than they seem. For example research showing that the overweight may be more likely to overcome illness ‘cos they have more energy stores…

  18. And also the fact that fat contains anti-inflammatories and stuff…

  19. HOWARD

    @” However I admit it hasn’t really sunk home yet, in the UK.”

    I agree-but I don’t think there woul;d be any appetite in UK to resist him if he does go to Kiev & lock them all up.

    The outcome of the NATO Conference is going to be interesting-squeeky bum time .

  20. @Colin

    Did you ever see Parris’ follow-up to spending a week on the dole?…

  21. I am struggling to understand (if this frugality stuff is correct) how one W. Churchill lived to 90 on the diet of a half pound steak and a half bottle of brandy, just for lunch (and that in wartime rationed Britain too).

  22. I’ve thought about Putin in Kiev within a fortnight. Given our response so far, he could be in Berlin by then, if he chose, the way I see it.

  23. the other howard…politically, as i have observed, we are not that different.

    in terms of what’s going to happen, we differ greatly. a weak (& clueless) labour govt. is precisely what we are heading for.

    re. the more interesting question of how Winston Churchill lived beyond his 90th birthday on his (purported) diet of brandy, cigars, oysters and fine dining.

    I have often pondered this. My conclusion is that he didn’t drink and smoke and gorge himself as much as he let everyone believe. Like Boris Johnson in our time, I think he had a carefully crafted image which masked an important aspect of reality.

  24. I am exceptionally tired of hearing of how UKIP don’t want decisions ‘made in Brussels’.

    I would have more respect for them if they extended that antipathy to the likes of the Barclay Brothers, Dacre and rich gambling magnates, but it seems that having the British people dictated to by unelected wealthy types who dislike paying British taxes is just dandy as long as there’s no danger of them having French or German accents.

    I agree with Spearmint that what is really missing on the Right is not the fringe of UKIP, it’s the old One Nation Tories.

    I venture that a party of that ilk would be rather popular around about now.

  25. chris riley,
    “a one nation” tory party today would be ground to a pulp between the public sector/ free public spending/union funded left embodied by labour and a right wing populist party aka ukip. this is the heart of david cameron’s problem.

    british society has moved on from the deferential stable, essentially monocultural world in which the patrician tories- baldwin, macmillan, butler- and their followers- heath, maudling, clarke and heseltine- flourished.
    .

  26. @ Howard,

    I am struggling to understand (if this frugality stuff is correct) how one W. Churchill lived to 90 on the diet of a half pound steak and a half bottle of brandy, just for lunch (and that in wartime rationed Britain too).

    He’s an outlier. You have to wait for four Churchills in a row to live to 90 before you can be sure of the trend.

  27. Its the ‘one nation Tories’ who have got the country into the mess it is in today by deposing Maggie and changing the course of where we should have headed. They were proved wrong on every argument they made back then and they won’t be allowed to forget it.

  28. @ Peter,

    “a one nation” tory party today would be ground to a pulp

    I dunno, Tony Blair was pretty electorally successful.

    I think the problem is less that there is no constituency for One Nation Toryism and more that such a party has no nucleus around which to coalesce- both Labour and the Tories have now made it clear that they refuse to be that party, and the Lib Dems are too flaky and doomed.

    If you were creating new parties de novo you could easily imagine one that would include Heseltine and Clarke, Blair and Mandelson, and Cameron and Clegg.

  29. @ Pressman,

    They were proved wrong on every argument they made

    Er, they won the 1992 general election. I suppose you could argue Mrs. Thatcher would have done so anyway- it’s a counterfactual so we can’t ever know for certain- but I’d suggest the polling does not support you.

    And Geoffrey “Managed Decline” Howe is not terribly One Nation anyway.

  30. Howard / Spearmint

    Churchill simply proves that Brandy has very good medicinal benefits. :)

  31. @Little red rock
    “I think that the selection of any candidate indicates that UKIP were targeting Clacton”
    UKIP are supposed to be contesting every seat, but I suppose that early selection might indicate ‘targeting’, which I take to mean ‘contesting with a good chance of winning’. I do know that some UKIP people have very optimistic views on what is likely to be possible.

  32. Spearmint

    She would have won and with a much bigger majority than Major got.

  33. I see that the NHSs in the UK may not be excluded from TTIP after all.

    “Following protests in London over the weekend, UK trade minister Lord Livingston confirmed that the NHS had not been excluded from talks about the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), insisting that it was because it would “not see any change to its existing obligations”.”

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/09/01/ttip-eu-us-trade-deal_n_5747088.html?utm_hp_ref=tw

    I’m having difficulty understanding why some seem to be arguing that TTIP would have no effect on the NHS, or Water in Northern Ireland and Scotland, or indeed any service which has been privatised in part.

  34. At last a referendum poll YouGov for the Sun at 10pm.

    You know my prediction but since YouGov not Panelbase I am going with Yes +3 about 46/47

  35. “He’s an outlier. You have to wait for four Churchills in a row to live to 90 before you can be sure of the trend”

    ———–

    Lol, and even then you have to wait until after the conferences for things to settle down in case it was a short term blip. And I don’t think they prompt for Churchill any more, either…

  36. @oldnat – I have to admit to being somewhat confused about TTIP. The same link you posted to suggests that if it covered the NHS, then it would require ratifying by the UK parliament, which is something else I hadn’t heard before.

    More fundamentally though, I’m wondering whether the threat is quite as serious as some make out. I assume that the adjudication panels would apply if a contract is broken, but presumably this would only happen if the government wanted to renationalise a service mid contract, in which case it would be penalised, or if the service provider breached the contract, in which case – I don’t know – would the government have a legitimate case? Even if the former, I would have thought UK law also requires governments to compensate shareholders if they renege on a contract. Contracts can also be written with reviews and gets outs etc, which I assume would allow early termination without challenge through TTIP.

    I would also assume that things like NHS contracts are time limited, and I would find it a very odd deal if service providers could take the UK government to a tribunal for loss of earnings for a future contract not yet let, meaning that any current or future privatisation would still be reversible without penalty, at the end of each contract period.

    I’m not arguing that privatisation is a good thing by any means, nor do I pretend to really know what TTIP could mean. I could be completely wrong. I just feel that TTIP is a very good pantomime villain to scare people with, but I have a suspicion the boos and hisses may be a bit overdone.

  37. “he would have won and with a much bigger majority than Major got”

    ——–

    She couldn’t even win over her own MPs…

  38. @Amber

    Some believe the 600K bet is a ‘no’ tactic, rather than the actions of a degenerate gambler with too much money. :-p

  39. How close are the LibDems these days to the One Nation Tory thing? I Mean they’re quite keen on Europe, like Suoernac…

  40. Supermax

  41. Alec

    ” I have a suspicion the boos and hisses may be a bit overdone.”

    Indeed, but so may be the cheers and hurrahs from the audience in the posh seats!

  42. Dave,

    I meant that UKIP selecting a candidate in a seat where they had previously given the Conservative candidate a free pass indicates that they considered they had a chance. Otherwise why damage the prospects of a sitting MP who was close to them politically? As the Euro elections showed, they had reason to be positive about their prospects in Clacton.

    The point is that UKIP considered Roger Lord to be a good enough candidate to be given one of its most important candidacies, which makes one wonder what sort of candidates they will have elsewhere.

  43. Rumours are Nos lead down to 6, so 47\53. I told you what was going on, maybe you will believe me now. Although, if we have to wait for 3 in a row that will take us to mid-October.

  44. Good Evening All, on transfer deadline day.

    I think Owen Patterson may transfer out of the Cons if UKIP win the by election in October.

  45. Nick Robinson has tweeted that yougov Indy poll is a good one for Yes.

  46. Couper2802

    TSE over on political betting has a good record for early accurate data from the polls, so a 6 point lead for No by Yougov is probably more than a rumour. We’ll see soon.

  47. “Mike Smithson

    YouGov/Times IndyRef poll finds undecided voters splitting to YES by 2-1.”

  48. And that the No lead is down to 6%, and that there has been a big wing in the Labour camp for the YES camp

  49. I am starting to think there is actually more than an outside chance for YES now. Anybody else ‘feeling’ a shift that way?

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