The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is up here. Voting intentions are CON 32%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16%. The 16% for UKIP is the highest YouGov have shown them at for three months, just after the European elections. It’s likely that the publicity over Douglas Carswell’s defection may have helped this, but remember YouGov have updated their methodology since then which has also boosted UKIP by a point. A defection is pretty quickly forgotten though, the real kicker from the Carswell defection is the by-election that comes with it, if UKIP win that by anything like last night’s Survation poll suggests expect a much more concrete impact on the polls.

YouGov also asked again about Western intervention in Iraq. Support for humanitarian intervention (77% support) and American air strikes against ISIS (56% support) are broadly unchanged. Support for RAF participation in air strikes is 43%, down 2 points since a week ago. It’s not a significant change, but it suggests the steady growth in support for British airstrikes that YouGov had been recording has now halted. People are slightly less supportive of extending air strikes against ISIS into Syria – 45% would support US airstrikes in Syria (24% opposed), 37% would support British airstrikes in Syria (37% opposed).

86% of people think that British citizens going to fight for Islamist forces pose a threat when they return here, and 79% think British citizens fighting for ISIS has increased the risk of terrorist attack on Britain.

Turning to the situation in Rotherham, 75% of people think that Shaun Wright, the South Yorkshire Police Commissioner, should resign from his post. 74% think any other people in senior roles in Rotherham council or police at the time of the child sexual exploitation scandal should also resign. More generally YouGov asked if people thought that when an organisation commits serious errors the people at the top should resign anyway, or should they only resign if they are personally at fault. It was an even split – 42% thought an organisations leaders should resign in the case of serious error even if they were not personally to blame, 43% that they should only go if they were personally to blame.


361 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 32, LAB 36, LD 7, UKIP 16”

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  1. ALEC

    “perhaps Tories could combine the old 1980?s civil defence motto when faced with nuclear Armageddon, with their new motto when faced with EU Armageddon?

    ‘Negotiate and survive’?”

    ————–

    Probably was the plan. But the assault in the press on immigration, while it brought Labour back down from the occasional 45-pointer to around 38, has also seen the alliance of immigration-sceptic Tory and Labour voters prepared to vote together against Tory MPs…

  2. MUDDY

    I quoted the mom increase%-it is 0.6%-not 100% as suggested by Ed !

  3. @Little Red

    I’ve read that the UKIP constitution says that in the event of a byelection the party chooses the candidate centrally, so if Carswell had just resigned his seat or had popped his cloggs then the current PPC might have been out on his ear anyway, complain though he no doubt would. A bit rough on the PPC, but entirely understandable politically.

  4. Colin,

    I think UKIP party rules are that the National Committee chooses by-election candidates. If that is correct then I assume it will select Carswell, which is not to say that Mr Lord may not also stand as an “unofficial” UKIP candidate.

    If UKIP was to lose its best ever chance of a seat because it spilt its own vote…..

  5. @Little Red

    We’ll have to stop meeting like thiis.

  6. LRR

    Thanks-will be interesting to see if Roger Lord goes it alone.

  7. Colin

    Yes, but you quoted the increase in total accumulated credit card debt, whereas the BBA press release is referring only to the amount of new CC borrowing taken out in the relevant months.

  8. JIMJAM

    Re Stephan Fisher, the latest forecast can be found at Elections etc, Fisher et al, the forecast dated 29th July shows Cons 35.8% Lab 32.3% and Lib 11.7% seats Cons 301, Lab 294 and Lib 26.

    Election Forecast. co.uk (Hanretty,Lauderdale and Vivyan) also dated 29th July indicates Cons 33.0% Lab 31.8% Lib 14.1%, seats Cons 301, Lab 294, Lib 23.

    Manchester Policy Blogs, Polling Observatory (Wleizien, Pickup, Ford, Jennings) dated 20th August indicates Cons 35.6% Lab36.2% and Libs 8.2% no forecast of seats.

    So two of the forecast groups forecast the Cons with most seats, the other shows a Labour lead of 0.6% in votes and presumably a Labour lead in seats. All three forecast indicate no overall majority.

  9. Given Roger Lord’s statements so far it is perfectly possible. One of the disadvantages of a party of rebels is that it will often lack discipline.

    Perhaps some obliging pollster will pose the question:

    Is your preferred choice;

    a) The Conservative Party candidate irrespective of who that is?
    b) The UKIP candidate irrespective of who that is?
    c) Carswell irrespective of part affiliation
    d) Carswell but only if he stands as UKIP
    e) Roger Lord
    f) Boris
    g) Plaid Cymru

  10. Colin – sorry (again) – not the BBA; I see that ED was picking up the BBC’s coverage of the BoE release today on consumer borrowing. Same point applies, though. I think.

  11. ToH thanks

  12. Re Roger Lord

    I thought initially this might be a faultline early on but not seen any press talk of him having loyal support among a bunch of local activists.

    Also talk of him threatening to rip people’s throats out doesn’t seem to make him an ideal candidate. Personally I’d question any member of any party who wanted to get in the way of them making history unless they have strong political reasons for not wanting a particular candidate.

  13. @Postage

    “Of the 30 Labour retirees that AW lists 4 are “marginal” 4 are “semimarginal”.”

    ————-

    Interesting, thanks.

    This is possibly what happens as politics becomes more of a “career”…

  14. colin

    “I quoted the mom increase.”

    Hockey moms?

    Now she WOULD have made a great VP.

  15. “It would be nice if the emergence of UKIP raised the level of understanding and debate about the EU and EU institutions but I have seen little evidence of it so far.”

    I’ll reply to this with an analogy the next time it is on-topic to do so.

    The Other Howard: I won’t put much credence in election predictions this side of Clacton. Previous assumptions about the extent to which UKIP’s VI would tail off, the LD share would recover slightly and that seats would drop by a lower proportion than votes, and who UKIP’s support would be at the expense of, are probably now outdated and will be of little use until wider impact of Clacton has been properly digested.

  16. Speaking of mis-reporting , the manufacturing figures do NOT show manufacturing at its lowest for 14 months, but show the rate of growth in manufacturing at the lowest for 14 months – a totally different thing.

    The published figures imply that manufacturing output is higher in July 2014 than June 2014. You wouldn’t easily glean that from a cursory read of the reportage…

  17. Roger Lord

    I have been reading some of the wit and wisdom or Mr Lord. Hardly statesmanlike. Since he was the PPC for one of UKIP’s target seats it does make one wonder at the quality of its other candidates. Roger Helmer, the centrally chosen candidate in the Newark by-election was also prone to making controversial statements.

    I think it is likely that most poll respondents will not know who their local UKIP candidate is, the question is will UKIP’s VI rise or fall when they find out?

  18. @Bigfatron – think you would. All that I’ve seen is that the recovery is slowing.

  19. CHRISHORNET

    I was responding to JIMJAM.. The three forecasters are all working from analysis of historical data so of course they do not reflect recent developments.

    I agree that any forecast of 2015 needs reviewing post Clacton. My own view has changed slightly. I now think that the Tories will do no better than largest number of seats and i will be looking again once the dust has settled. I still do not see Labour winning.

  20. @Carfrew, @Postage

    What is a “marginal” seat depends on the expected position of the parties at the next election, not the result at the last. Marginal seats in my book are those which the sitting party has a fair chance of losing.

    Currently you can get long odds on Labour losing each of the seats in which an incumbent is standing down – the shortest in any is I think Great Grimsby where UKIP are 3/1.

    That’s not the case where many seats where Conservatives or LDs are standing down, which is where the loss of incumbents is going to matter. Of seats where Conservatives are standing down (including Corby), 9 are on Labour’s target list. Of the 10 seats where LDs are standing down (I’m assuming Hancock won’t stand as a LD), I expect them to lose at least 6.

  21. Phil,

    Yes the best time for MPs to stand down from parties perspectives in when they are likely to improve their performance in Vote share terms.

    I guess human nature is that more will retire, though, when the opposite looks true.

  22. Chris H,
    I think it fair to say that most of the posters on this site are sceptical of pure historically driven ‘swing-back’ models; although most of us accept a degree of reversion will occur from current VI to 2010.

    FWIW, I feel these models still have a use and in particular as their central forecasts change as the anticipated swing-back fails to materialise. (or maybe there will be some Jimmy Anderson – sorry late swing)

    Fisher’s model flipped to Lab most seats for a week or 2 in mid July before moving to Cons most seats and I am intrigued to see if this will flip over again in September.

  23. Macbethian note: the Missing Million voters in Scotland might actually be more unionist than the rest of the population-

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/09/could-the-missing-million-swing-it-to-yes/

  24. LITTLE RED ROCK and CHRIS HORNET.
    I am new here too, so welcome.

    I think the forecasts of 23 LD MP’s on May 8 seems a little high, intuitively and IMHO as they say here.

  25. The 2 years 2009 to 2011 deficit down by 39.3bn, but not much growth in the UK economy. The 2 years 2012 to 2014 deficit down by 12,2bn and growth comes back, so Ed is basically correct.

    This was the point made by that excellent economist Ann Pettifor with her ‘Alice in Wongaland’ economy? in October 2013

    link
    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/five-minutes-with-ann-pettifor/

    Ms Pettifor’s contention is that in the Autumn of 2012 George O panicked – the economy was going no where and he could see the next election slipping away and so gave up with austerity and went back to the old method of stimulating the UK economy – housing boom and consumer debt.

    The problem for Ed Balls( I am sorry I am not impressed with this chap) is the he was calling for plan B in March 2013 when the chancellor had already adopted it in November 2012

    See Simon Wren- Lewis blog here

    h ttp://mainlymacro.blogspot.in/2014/04/what-fool-i-have-been.html

    ‘ March 2011 was very much Plan A: a sharp and steady tightening of fiscal policy. By March 2014 it looks like Plan B: in 2012/3 and 2013/4 there is very little fiscal tightening.’

  26. Clacton changes nothing for those of us who have been arguing for nearly 2 years that the split right, represented by the surge of ukip in that time, meant the tories were out.

  27. PETER CRAWFORD.

    Matthew Parris seemed very upset about the UKIP threat, from the article in the Saturday paper.
    I felt for his distress.

  28. Colin –

    “Borrowing on credit cards alone more than doubled over the period.

    No idea where that comes from.”

    That’s taken directly from the BBC news article. I suppose they are measuring month on month not total debt.

    As for the debt figures –
    “2009/10-£157.3bn
    2010/11-£139.2bn
    2011/12-£118.0bn
    2012/13 £115.1bn
    2013/14 £105.8bn
    2014/15 £ 95.5bn forecast”

    That pretty much matches what I said except the target this year is £95.5b not £100b. The big drops in reducing it came at the tail end of Labour and the first year old the tories. Since 2011 it’s not really gone anywhere – small drops. They are quite a bit above the target so far this year so £100b looks a fair final target, which is very poor with 3.2% GDP growth.

  29. Ed,

    I think that is a misunderstanding. The growth is due to the deficit, not in spite of it.

  30. @Ed is correct – the surge in credit card lending was in new lending – up from £655m to £1.1B in July.

    These monthly figures are prone to big fluctuations, so it’s too early to state with any certainty what is really going on, but the rate of credit card borrowing did grow alarmingly on the month.

  31. Matthew Parris seemed very upset about the UKIP threat, from the article in the Saturday paper.
    I felt for his distress.

    What a shame there are so few moderates left in the parliamentary Conservative Party. If only Matthew Parris had been in a position to do something about that…

  32. @ Hal

    Do you have any easy to understand figures for your claim about growth being due to easing off on the deficit targets?

    On the revenue side, I can think of a few like raising personal allowances, cut in corporation Tax, a one off NIC rebate of £2k for every employer, cut in Income Tax from 50-45% (although the government claims this has no effect on revenue) and a few others but I don’t get the feeling these are major revenue reducing measures.

    On the expenditure side I can’t think of any major stimulus put in place by the government that actually costs them money in the short term. The obvious boom policy was with housing but I don’t think they have had to put any cash up front for this- just a potential chickens coming home to roost later on.

    Not disagreeing with you but would be nice to have some idea of what you think the major games changes have been if you are saying that growth has been bought by taking the pedal of deficit reduction.

    I have my suspicion that, in the multinational world we live in, that any growth, especially in consumer spending, doesn’t filter through into tax receipts. As the online companies take more of the market their taxes do not equal what the high street would have put into government coffers.

  33. what a shame there are so few moderates in the parliamentary Conservative party! The party is full of pale blue social democrats, hence the rise of UKIP!

  34. I think us social democrats (in the original sense) might take issue with that ;)

  35. Spearmint
    Matthew Parris is a moderate what exactly? I have always regarded him as very right wing. On the other hand I haven’t read him since he was a parliamentary sketch writer, whenever that was.

    The Matthew Parris party if you ask me.

  36. Er but I descended into who’s RW and LW and we mustn’t.

  37. @ Peter,

    Eh, I’d say the party is full of socially liberal Thatcherites more than anything else. (Actually it’s not very full of them or Cameron wouldn’t be having so much trouble with it, but the Cabinet is full of them.)

    The Kippers want socially conservative social democrats who oppose the free movement of labour, ie. half the Labour Party circa ~1970.

    Matthew Parris wants One Nation Tories, who basically no longer exist, in part because the ones who used to be in Parliament ran off halfway through their terms to take jobs in television.

  38. @ Howard,

    He’s certainly pro-European, and I think he’d be consistently socially liberal except for his many dumb assumptions which he never bothers to question. By Tory standards that makes him a moderate in my book. (Albeit an incredibly intellectually lazy one.)

  39. I think Cameron is pretty much a Parris type. steady as she goes, ruling class, one nation, Macmillan, “things will be ok if the right sort of pragmatic Old Etonian is at the helm” sort of chap.

    Cameron and Parris are the guys who are stuck in the 1950s…

    Ukip for good or ill has rocked the assumptions of those cosy club type patrician wet…people do care about levels immigration, they do care about having rules decided in brussels…they don’t like endless welfare spending.

    now the left might not like this type of politics but it’s a constituency in the country which the tories used to appeal to, which they have totally alienated.

  40. @Little Red Rock
    Are you sure that Clacton was one of UKIP’s target seats? – Held, when R. Lord was adopted, by a Eurosceptic Tory with a 12,000 majority, and not even contested by UKIP in 2010.

  41. Truth is between UKIP and the way global politics is playing out right now; the next election is increasingly in the hands of external forces.

  42. Dave

    I think that the selection of any candidate indicates that UKIP were targeting Clacton. UKIP got almost 50% of the Euro votes in Tendring (and over 50% if one adds, “an Independence from Europe”). I don’t think that it was a seat that they necessarily expected to win but it was one where you might expect them to choose their candidate with care.

  43. MUDDY

    @”Yes, but you quoted the increase in total accumulated credit card debt, whereas the BBA press release is referring only to the amount of new CC borrowing taken out in the relevant months.”

    The difference between two total credit card debts at two different dates IS the “new borrowing taken out”.
    Neither for mom-nor for yoy is that increase 100% as claimed by ED.

  44. PHIL HAINES
    @Allan Christie
    You seemed yesterday to be advocating that NATO should become directly involved in a shooting war against Russian forces in the Ukraine. Heaven help us all – who knows where that might lead.
    At the moment, I’m not sure whether Russia, or NATO – with its expansionist aims into former republics of the Soviet Union – is the greater threat to world peace. Certainly the diplomatic overtures of the EU and Nato towards Ukraine seem in recent years to have stirred the pot rather than to have calmed it
    _______

    I 100% agree with you and all I was looking for was an answer for NATO’S existence.If they say the biggest threat to Europe since the cold war is Russia then why don’t they intervene?

    Possibly because NATO is nothing more than an expensive vanity project trying to impress the defence industry or they can only fight against weak third world nations and armed nomads.

    I suspect the real reason for NATO is to do with American expansionism though.

  45. Colin
    I have just dined well and perhaps this is the reason, but your last sentence has left me puzzled. Who (what) are mom and yoy.

  46. Howard

    Month on Month and Year on Year, I suspect

  47. ED

    @” They are quite a bit above the target so far this year so £100b looks a fair final target, ”

    Actually £1.8bn above py after 4 months of 12.

    For the next 8 months GO needs to be £1.5bn down on py in every month to hit £95.5bn

    Still time-we will see.

  48. ALEC
    @Phil Haines – “@Allan Christie
    You seemed yesterday to be advocating that NATO should become directly involved in a shooting war against Russian forces in the Ukraine.”
    ____
    Yes – these expansionist, imperialist Scottish Nationalists are an aggressive bunch, aren’t they?
    ‘Join NATO and see the world’ – could be an ad for the Yes campaign
    __________

    Oh dear if only I explained my earlier posts a bit better then you might had understood the point i was trying to make.

    You know its funny…A few months back when we were discussing the crises in Crimea I was posting from a Russian perspective and some agreed and others disagreed with me….I suspect you I’m damned if I do and damned if I don’t.

  49. @ Peter,

    Macmillan built hundreds of thousands of council houses. The thing about the old High Tory model of governance was the patricians were supposed to look after the lower classes.

    Thatcher scrapped that mentality, which is why Cameron is now in such trouble. He’s too posh to be relatable in the way that she was, and he doesn’t have that sense of noblesse oblige that made people trust Macmillan to act in their interests despite the class barrier. He’d have a hard job of it anyway in the modern era, but he doesn’t even seem to understand the problem.

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