The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is up here. Voting intentions are CON 32%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16%. The 16% for UKIP is the highest YouGov have shown them at for three months, just after the European elections. It’s likely that the publicity over Douglas Carswell’s defection may have helped this, but remember YouGov have updated their methodology since then which has also boosted UKIP by a point. A defection is pretty quickly forgotten though, the real kicker from the Carswell defection is the by-election that comes with it, if UKIP win that by anything like last night’s Survation poll suggests expect a much more concrete impact on the polls.

YouGov also asked again about Western intervention in Iraq. Support for humanitarian intervention (77% support) and American air strikes against ISIS (56% support) are broadly unchanged. Support for RAF participation in air strikes is 43%, down 2 points since a week ago. It’s not a significant change, but it suggests the steady growth in support for British airstrikes that YouGov had been recording has now halted. People are slightly less supportive of extending air strikes against ISIS into Syria – 45% would support US airstrikes in Syria (24% opposed), 37% would support British airstrikes in Syria (37% opposed).

86% of people think that British citizens going to fight for Islamist forces pose a threat when they return here, and 79% think British citizens fighting for ISIS has increased the risk of terrorist attack on Britain.

Turning to the situation in Rotherham, 75% of people think that Shaun Wright, the South Yorkshire Police Commissioner, should resign from his post. 74% think any other people in senior roles in Rotherham council or police at the time of the child sexual exploitation scandal should also resign. More generally YouGov asked if people thought that when an organisation commits serious errors the people at the top should resign anyway, or should they only resign if they are personally at fault. It was an even split – 42% thought an organisations leaders should resign in the case of serious error even if they were not personally to blame, 43% that they should only go if they were personally to blame.


361 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 32, LAB 36, LD 7, UKIP 16”

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  1. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-29013275

    Not to worry. No need to intervene. After all, its no different than the territorial dispute in Ukraine.

    Not bleedin’ much its not !!

    This is the very thing that the UN and the world’s more moral, powerful nations SHOULD be eradicating.

    If not now, when??

  2. Putin already started a trade war, with the Food import ban, he’s just trying to set it up so it hurts Russia the least. So the EU should be working out how to make this trade war hurt Russia the most.

  3. @R&D – the weather.

    It’s a complete circle.

    Always has been, and always will be.

  4. SoCalLiberal

    I can’t see the Ryder Cup making any difference at all – even the Germany v Scotland game on the 7th September won’t affect it. :-)

  5. Has Stephen Fisher updated when I search around I can only fine July’s?

  6. Over at the Indie it says as many as 100 Tory MPs will pledge to vote to leave the EU regardless of what concessions Cameron negotiates.

    “There are strong parallels with the 1997 election, when the majority of Tory candidates vowed in their local addresses to oppose joining the euro. The rebels included Mr Cameron, who stood unsuccessfully in Stafford. They defied the “negotiate and decide” stance of John Major, then Prime Minister, who issued a plea to the rebels “not to bind my hands”, to no avail. Tory divisions surfaced during the campaign and Labour won a landslide victory.

    Another Tory MP said: “Many colleagues in marginal constituencies see an ‘out’ pledge as the only way to save their seat. ‘Outers’ in non-marginals will also make the pledge.”

    Tories plotting the move hope that Ukip might “go soft” on Tory candidates who promise to vote to leave the EU whatever the outcome of the post-election negotiations.”

    Hard for Cameron to complain if he did something similar.

  7. @carfrew – I posted a link to the Telegraph story last time it was out around a month ago. I think there are always people saying the markets will rise, or the markets will fall, but the figures on leveraged share dealing do break records, and do suggest a huge systemic risk of a crash, if market sentiment turns suddenly.

    Perhaps more directly relevant to polls, figures today showed that UK consumer borrowing (non mortgage) surged in July.

    This could either mean;
    1) Increased consumer confidence, or
    2) Increased consumer stress, and the need to borrow to survive.

    Given that consumer confidence surveys have been negative, 1) might not seem most likely, but who knows?

    The answer to this is of critical importance to GE2015, I would suggest.

  8. “Has Stephen Fisher updated when I search around I can only fine July’s?”

    ——–

    The spreadsheet, already under some strain, probably imploded once Carswell announced his defection…

    His margins of error have possibly exceeded 100?…

  9. 100%

  10. Barney, I tend to agree.

    The part of the debate which seems to have been completely missed is that there is no way the EU would allow the UK to adopt a Switzerland or Norway type relationship without a commitment to the ECHR, and given how the Tories and UKIP have positioned themselves it’s difficult to see that happening.

    If that analysis is correct, and the choice in a referendum were all or nothing, I think the end result would be “all”, however inconceivable that outcome seems at this precise moment.

  11. Nick Tyrone has some strong words to say about political polling, particularly the Clacton one by Survation with the 44% lead for UKIP.
    Is he right:
    http://nicktyrone.com/44-percent-poll-lead-ukip-clacton-completely-bogus/

  12. @Alec

    Yes I do recall your posting on the markets… Wasn’t trying to steal your thunder, was more interested in what’s dominating the headlines.

    I increased my borrowing in July… Wasn’t due to financial stress but lots of techie bargains about. That said, I note my storage costs have increased again…

  13. On face value, 700 seems a reasonable sample size for a single constituency, and people have indeed been citing immigration as a top concern of late. I suppose we’ll see in other polls and on the day.

  14. On Stonehenge: Telegraph
    “Did the huge Neolithic stones form a complete circle?
    The puzzle has been answered after the dry summer revealed the faint outline of the missing megaliths.Usually the ground is watered by stewards, to keep the earth moist and the grass healthy. But this year, the hose they used was too short to reach the whole site.” etc.

    A Stonehenge Spokesman stated: “The cuts were literal here. A man from the ministry came & chopped off 20 yds of hose. Said they were needed to water the minister’s potted plants.”

  15. 700 is a perfectly okay sample size, and although it’s smaller than ideal the sheer size of the lead puts it outside even that increased MoE territory.

    As Anthony is fond of saying, this poll does not predict anything. It shows us where people stand at the moment.

    Oh and “internal polling” claims again. Uh-huh.

    I too think a UKIP lead of 44 is unrealistic in the actual result, but writing it off as bogus just because it’s a very shocking result isn’t wise.

  16. Tyrone says…

    “The other answers from the poll give the game away. 57 percent name immigration as their top concern. This is way, way too high, even for somewhere like Clacton where you’d expect it to be higher than in other parts of the country. People’s top concerns are always housing, jobs and the NHS. 20 percent would be a very large number for immigration anywhere, at any time.”

    But the Mori issue tracker places immigration as the top concern…

  17. Per ChrisHornet at 1:39

    The European Convention on Human Rights has nothing to do with the European Union. I don’t think that the EU could making remaining a signatory a condition of EU membership or any semi detached status.

  18. @carfrew – thanks, but feel free to steal my thunder. As @Rosieandddaisie and I have agreed, the weather is a complete circle.

    I’ve no idea what that means, but I’m sure @Oldnat will tell us soon.

    On the economic headlines, it does seem clear that the European end of the global economy at least is in a poor place. The EZ is teetering on deflation, with the Ukranian business affecting both the EU and Russian economies. The UK recovery is softening, but thankfully we can’t say worse than that at this stage.

    While people remain reasonably upbeat – perhaps a little more than the numbers would justify – my sense is that we are at the mercy of a headline event that could decisively change the mood.

    If Wall Street really is leveraged to the hilt, a rapid correction could well be such an event.

  19. It took all of two minutes for someone to decide to report a link to BBC News due to political unease about the content. It was a relevant story about an issue which might or might not affect an upcoming vote.

    Long live free speech eh?

    The Tyrone link above is poorly argued (in a by-election which is effectively a referendum on whether UKIP should be anywhere near Parliament, which will be swiftly followed by a GE, it’s not out of the question that voters’ priorities will be unusual), makes a somewhat below the belt attack on a reasonably well known polling agency, and counters it with an absurdly low projection of Carswell’s lead, but is not completely without merit. There is simply no way that Carswell is anything like 44% ahead, albeit he’s certainly far more than 2% ahead.

  20. Quite taken with this pledging thing. But why should Tories just limit themselves to doing deals with UKip? They could do a deal with Labour to go easy on them in return for some suitable pledge…

    Also quite like this “negotiate and then decide” thing. One thing you can say about deals with Europe is that once in a treaty or summat, they tend to happen more reliably than manifesto commitments.

  21. That Tyrone post seems to be an opinion piece, rather than evidence based. As others mention, the sample size is reasonable, his view on the salience of immigration out of date, and any talk of internal party polling degrading to a professional commentator, I would have thought.

    He hasn’t explained why the sample looks odd either, so why bother saying it?

    Difficult to make a judgement really, as he offers no evidence for his case.

  22. “The European Convention on Human Rights has nothing to do with the European Union. I don’t think that the EU could making remaining a signatory a condition of EU membership or any semi detached status.”

    They couldn’t make it a condition of continuing EU membership. Negotiation on the terms of separation from the EU is a different matter entirely.

  23. @Carfrew – perhaps Tories could combine the old 1980’s civil defence motto when faced with nuclear Armageddon, with their new motto when faced with EU Armageddon?

    ‘Negotiate and survive’?

  24. “It took all of two minutes for someone to decide to report a link to BBC News due to political unease about the content”

    ——–

    Wasn’t me, I’ve never reported a link. (Paul says he does though, just so you know…)

  25. Consumer borrowing jumped up sharply last month according to the Bank of England. Other figures on credit card spending from banks show big growth on last year, and are now back up to 2008 levels.

    With wage growth of 0.3% that large VAT revenue increase seems to be coming from borrowing. Wage related tax revenue seems stagnant. Indeed, since April income Tax receipts are down 1.1% on the same period last year (April to July).

    Same old issues with the UK economy as before 2008? Consumer debt keeping growth going before it all goes wrong? Also out today was the news that manufacturing dropped to 14 month lows according to the PMI survey for August.

    What is clear is that after rapid gains in reducing the deficit in the first year to 18 months of the gov, it has barely shifted the following 3 years. Edging downwards from £120b to £100b this year if target are met. As they’re not so far it could be £110b. Way off target of complete elimination in 2015. Whoever wins is going to have a big headache with spending.

  26. ChrisHornet

    Well, yes, I suppose in theory anything including the ECHR could be in play but I think its somewhat fanciful to think that it would be a key factor. IMO, of course.

    Linking the ECHR and the EU is one of those all too common mistakes that provide one with hours of amusement when the kippers come canvassing. I like to ask them their positions on the Eurovision Song Contest and the Champions League.

  27. For what it’s worth Carfrew it was a bit of a cheeky post, phrased in a way which probably wasn’t on-topic enough to meet the Comments policy. I have no intrinsic issue if Anthony decides that it didn’t contribute to the discussion.

    But if everyone took that approach, we probably wouldn’t be able to have any sort of discussion on polling relating to areas where people have strong opinions, such as Scottish independence or UKIP.

  28. Oh, here’s the credit card figures from the British Bankers Association – https://www.bba.org.uk/news/statistics/credit-card-market/

    Some snippets –

    “Borrowing amounts are growing by 5.3 per
    cent annually (allowing for debt write-offs and
    therefore reflecting current cardholder activity).”

    “June saw 210 million card purchases worth a
    total of £12.2 billion (numbers are 15 per cent
    higher and values are 11 per cent higher than
    in June 2013).”

    That was June. The Bank of England figures out today are from July which show a big jump from June. Here’s what it showed –

    “The amount of new money being borrowed by consumers soared to more than £1bn in July, according to the Bank of England.

    It is the highest figure since March this year, and a big jump on the figure for June.

    Consumers borrowed £1.1bn on credit cards and through unsecured loans in July, compared with £655m in the previous month.

    Borrowing on credit cards alone more than doubled over the period.”

  29. I would rather we DIDN’T have any discussion of Scottish independence in threads that weren’t about, otherwise it drowns out everything else

  30. @Chris Hornet

    I don’t think the “report comment” thingy automatically removes your post, does it? I thought it just gave AW the nod and he made his own mind up as to whether you broke the house rules.

    I hope that’s how it works, because I’m quite clumsy with a tablet and I’ve reported by accident a couple of times at least!

  31. @Ed – ” Way off target of complete elimination in 2015.”

    I think you’ll find that the target was to eliminate the structural deficit by 2015, which still won’t be met, unless they do some redefining. He also promised to have debt as a proportion of GDP falling by 2015 – this one won’t be met.

  32. @Alec

    Yes, on the face of it, many things appear to be a complete circle… The weather, Stonehenge… Though inspired by last night’s witching-hour exchanges, I made the effort to read up a bit more on the Stonehenge thing… Apparently there were many phases where new bits were put up, then pulled down again, rearranged, some bits toppled over… it was like a Lib Dem manifesto.

    (The pre-Roman planning committees left something to be desired…)

    Yep, economically things do seem a bit precarious. What with Carswell and the possibility of winter blackouts, it’s interesting times…

  33. Little Red Rock, I for one understand the distinction between the two, although agree that it’s a point of amusement.

    The reason behind my belief that the EU would link remaining in the Common Market conditional to remaining part of ECHR should the UK leave the EU, is because that court is seen very differently on much of the continent. If the UK were to leave it for reasons of sovereignty, it’s easy to see France and/or Russia following suit, and frankly I don’t think there’s anything that rEU wouldn’t be prepared to do to coerce the UK to remain in it.

  34. Fair enough Anthony.

    As I said, I do acknowledge that it was pushing it, just surprised that someone took sufficient offence to report.

  35. “I would rather we DIDN’T have any discussion of Scottish independence in threads that weren’t about, otherwise it drowns out everything else”

    ——–

    Wasn’t me!! (Paul’s been known to though, just so you know, etc…)

  36. @CHRISHORNET

    “As I said, I do acknowledge that it was pushing it, just surprised that someone took sufficient offence to report.”

    ————–

    Given it’s online, one is usually amazed when someone or other isn’t offended…

  37. “Given it’s online, one is usually amazed when someone or other isn’t offended…”

    I can’t believe you just said that!

  38. ChrisHornet

    You may very well be right. But even if you are not I can think of half a dozen other obstacles that the rEU could put in place of a negotiated semi attached membership for the UK.

    It would be nice if the emergence of UKIP raised the level of understanding and debate about the EU and EU institutions but I have seen little evidence of it so far.

  39. ED

    @”
    Borrowing on credit cards alone more than doubled over the period.”

    No idea where that comes from.

    BoE July numbers for Credit Card Debt is £57.4bn vs £57.2bn in June

    July is up 0.6% on June ; 4.7% annualised 3mths. ; and 4.8% over the last 12 mths.

  40. @Little Red Rock, Chris Hornet

    You are mistaken. While the ECHR is not a formal part of the EU apparatus, this is only because the ECHR apparatus predates the EU, and is used by parties not a member of the EU.

    The Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), one of the main three pillars of EU membership, requires a common policy of Human Rights recognition and enforcement.

    This is currently maintained by acceding to the ECHR. This means that yes, as things are set up, membership of the EU is predicated on membership of the ECHR. Theoretically the UK could leave the ECHR, and remain within the EU, but only if the UK maintained a court system that was harmonised with the ECHR.

  41. @Steve2

    “I can’t believe you just said that!”

    ————

    And I didn’t even post a link!!…

  42. @Carfrew

    Of the 30 Labour retirees that AW lists 4 are “marginal” 4 are “semimarginal”.

  43. Also, it’s even harder to argue that we weren’t give a choice over human rights harmonisation across Europe, when the UK drafted and proposed the ECHR, and it pre-dated the ECC Referendum by 25 years. Harmonisation of Human Rights recognition and an enforced ECHR has been part of the deal for a very very long time now, and it’s incredulous to suggest it’s not a fundamental part of the European Union.

  44. ED

    @”What is clear is that after rapid gains in reducing the deficit in the first year to 18 months of the gov, it has barely shifted the following 3 years. Edging downwards from £120b to £100b this year if target are met. ”

    The record to date ( ONS Public Sector Finances July 2014) & most recent forecast ( April 2014 Red Book) are as follows

    Deficit £ bn.
    2009/10-£157.3bn
    2010/11-£139.2bn
    2011/12-£118.0bn
    2012/13 £115.1bn
    2013/14 £105.8bn
    2014/15 £ 95.5bn forecast

    all stated excluding RM Pension Scheme tfr.& APF coupon tfrs.

  45. Jayblanc

    I don’t think that any sensible (or at least knowledgeable) person would try to say that we were not consulted over human rights for the reasons you give and because the enactment of the HRA was in the 1997 Labour Party manifesto wasn’t it.

    My point (and I think ChrisHornet would agree) is that many people believe that the ECHR is an EU institution, which it is not.

    The issue is whether the UK (or any state) could realistically be permitted to adopt a pick and mix approach to the benefits of EU membership. David Cameron has set himself the task of persuading the electorate that it could. This seems ambitious when he appears to have failed to convince many of his own backbench MPs.

    All of which brings us back to Mr Carswell.

  46. @CHRISHORNET

    “For what it’s worth Carfrew it was a bit of a cheeky post, phrased in a way which probably wasn’t on-topic enough to meet the Comments policy.”

    ———–

    Trying to meet the comments policy is like… the Holy Grail. A conundrum wrapped in an enigma, many have fallen in their attempts to attain the unreachable goal. Even if someone does eventually manage it, automod will probably get them. Or there’s a new thread just as they post. Or there may be… new guidance!! Rendering their formerly permissable post suddenly impermissable.

    Sometimes your posts get canned ‘cos of what someone else did… We could chat about Thorium if you like, that’s never caused any alarm…

  47. @Colin: “No idea where that comes from.”

    Isn’t it the difference between the month-on-month increase in new credit card borrowing and the total accumulated credit card debt?

  48. Does anybody know, or care to theorise, as to why UKIP decided to stand a candidate against Carswell when it had previously given him a free pass?

    Was this a local or a national decision? And was it informed by UKIP’s performance in the EO elections or on something Carswell himself said or did?

  49. MUDDY

    No idea-the numbers I gave are from the BoE website, which shows Total Debt at each month end & various % increases.

  50. Sorry, badly expressed. I meant to suggest that the figure you’re puzzled about is the month-on-month increase in new CC borrowing, but the figures you quoted are the total accumulated CC debt.

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