The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is up here. Voting intentions are CON 32%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16%. The 16% for UKIP is the highest YouGov have shown them at for three months, just after the European elections. It’s likely that the publicity over Douglas Carswell’s defection may have helped this, but remember YouGov have updated their methodology since then which has also boosted UKIP by a point. A defection is pretty quickly forgotten though, the real kicker from the Carswell defection is the by-election that comes with it, if UKIP win that by anything like last night’s Survation poll suggests expect a much more concrete impact on the polls.

YouGov also asked again about Western intervention in Iraq. Support for humanitarian intervention (77% support) and American air strikes against ISIS (56% support) are broadly unchanged. Support for RAF participation in air strikes is 43%, down 2 points since a week ago. It’s not a significant change, but it suggests the steady growth in support for British airstrikes that YouGov had been recording has now halted. People are slightly less supportive of extending air strikes against ISIS into Syria – 45% would support US airstrikes in Syria (24% opposed), 37% would support British airstrikes in Syria (37% opposed).

86% of people think that British citizens going to fight for Islamist forces pose a threat when they return here, and 79% think British citizens fighting for ISIS has increased the risk of terrorist attack on Britain.

Turning to the situation in Rotherham, 75% of people think that Shaun Wright, the South Yorkshire Police Commissioner, should resign from his post. 74% think any other people in senior roles in Rotherham council or police at the time of the child sexual exploitation scandal should also resign. More generally YouGov asked if people thought that when an organisation commits serious errors the people at the top should resign anyway, or should they only resign if they are personally at fault. It was an even split – 42% thought an organisations leaders should resign in the case of serious error even if they were not personally to blame, 43% that they should only go if they were personally to blame.


361 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 32, LAB 36, LD 7, UKIP 16”

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  1. no its not

    its what we call an “incomplete” circle.

    you can use yer imagination to complete it with relative ease but, when building it, they used stones.

    These are now missing, presumed dead, which is why the generally accepted description is “IN-complete”, though that reality has only just been discovered.

    There’s a similar situation with Scotland – but even more complicated.

  2. R&D

    Might be wise to read about the research on Stonehenge.

    The original circle is the earth bank and ditch. The stones are a later addition and were preceded by a timber circle. Even then, the stone circle is defined by the upright stones, not the trilithon structure that was later installed.

  3. Might be best not to assume stuff: I Have just read the recent research on the incomplete circle of stones [viz some were thought to be missing] and the new evidence that they actually were in place at one time.

    Mind you that only came from the experts at Stonehenge so might not be as thorough as your own info.

    However, I must thank you, as ever, for patronising me.

    You’re jolly good at it.

    NFO

  4. R&D

    No problem. Always happy to bring enlightenment into your life.

    That you comprehend the significance of Stonehenge to be the Stones as opposed to the Henge suggests that you should read the research a little more closely.

    indeed, the real significance of the site dos not lie with man-made structures at all, but the natural geological formation that fortuitously aligns with the solstice.

  5. Oh For fuc’s sake !!!!!!!!!!!

    I didn’t assume any significance at all – please stop being so bloody know all about everything.

    I simply reported a news item ABOUT THE STONES.

    I didn’t realise it would cause such an upset but in future I’ll check the bloody time before I post.

  6. R&D

    It would help if you had said that you were reporting a news item, and referring to it

    I am happy, however, to accept that you were making no assumptions about the significance of the Stonehenge site, and that you have no understanding of it except for what you read somewhere.

    If there is new information on the site, I would be delighted to see it. Please share the item.

  7. In really important matters, the BBC has this as their 3rd top story in their English News.

    “Horse trapped on gate hoisted to safety in Shropshire”
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-29002876

    Further comment seems unnecessary.

  8. Okay, I have a somewhat silly question for you guys.

    Do you think the Ryder Cup in Scotland, which is coming up this month, will impact the referendum at all? Apparently every hotel in Scotland is booked and massive throngs of tourists will be coming in.

  9. Socal, oldnat will confidently predict this will provoke a massive swing to ‘Yes’ (which, as with all previous such predictions of his, wont happen) in 3….2….1….

  10. @Allan Christie

    You seemed yesterday to be advocating that NATO should become directly involved in a shooting war against Russian forces in the Ukraine. Heaven help us all – who knows where that might lead.

    At the moment, I’m not sure whether Russia, or NATO – with its expansionist aims into former republics of the Soviet Union – is the greater threat to world peace. Certainly the diplomatic overtures of the EU and Nato towards Ukraine seem in recent years to have stirred the pot rather than to have calmed it.

  11. R&D,

    The word you are looking for is ‘Ultracrepidarianism’.

    It’s a common trait among prolific Internet posters, but you shouldn’t concern yourself as I suspect we won’t be seeing much more of it in a few weeks time.

  12. @ SoCaL

    Do you think the Ryder Cup in Scotland, which is coming up this month, will impact the referendum at all? Apparently every hotel in Scotland is booked and massive throngs of tourists will be coming in.
    ——————-
    Nothing has had an impact on the referendum so far.

    All that has happened is:
    the make-up of opinion polling panels has been changed, adjusted &/or frozen;
    the weightings have changed; &
    the methods have been tweaked.

    The opinions themselves haven’t actually changed much at all during the campaign, so it seems vanishingly unlikely that another influx of tourists will make a jot of difference.

  13. I just hope the Scotch vote ‘Yes’. Then maybe we’ll get a bit of peace.

  14. Good Morning All; last day of my school holidays, before my last year as a wage slave.

    There is a very interesting, IMO, article by Peter Kellner, about UKIP tactics, and also, of course, by Matthew Parris, who was unusually vitriolic about Mr Carswell on Saturday.

  15. CHRIS

    Good morning.

    the PK analysis was in the ST-I referenced it here.

    It is indeed very interesting & impresses on me how little the Con plea -” vote UKIP/get Labour” will resonate.

    For many Kippers-including their leader , this is what they actually want. Followed by a short & disastrous Labour administration, a re-alignment of the Right into an Anti EU party. This will sweep to power in an early GE on a promise to exit EU, take control of our borders, and free UK’s economy from sclerotic EZ regulation.

    I think PK’s analysis has the ring of truth.

  16. @ChrisLane1945

    “There is a very interesting, IMO, article by Peter Kellner, about UKIP tactics, and also, of course, by Matthew Parris, who was unusually vitriolic about Mr Carswell on Saturday.”

    Never mind the likes of Parris and Kellner, they’re merely bit part players on this stage of fools, have you seen the league tables recently?

    And I don’t mean schools league tables, I mean the Premiership!

    :-)

  17. Of course, Parris is behind the paywall. I wonder whether the paywall on Murdoch papers will mean that they have less influence in 2015 than they did previously? So many people now get their news online. (Do Sky subscribers get subscriptions to the Murdoch papers?)

  18. CON HOME’s “Manifesto” contains this :-

    “Britain must regain full control of its borders, repatriating power over immigration policy from the European Union. With this renewed freedom, the existing immigration targets would be replaced by a points-based system emphasising the skills needed for economic growth. New migrants would be required to purchase their own health and welfare insurance cover – and access to public services would have to be earned.”

    This is at the heart of DC’s problem.

    He hasn’t said if this is on his shopping list.
    Con Home don’t say how it will be achieved.

    NF does-leave the EU.

    Today’s Times reports a YouGov Poll of 2000 adults on 27/28 August in which that ConHome immigration policy gets 70% approval by “all voters” & 89% approval by “Tory voters”

    !!

  19. Another Conservative MP has announced he’s standing down. It’s Sir Tony Baldry.

    I’m beginning to lose count.

  20. Chatterclass
    “(Do Sky subscribers get subscriptions to the Murdoch papers?)”

    No, not as part of their viewing package they don’t.

  21. @ADGE3
    ” the Lib Dems fought the 2010 election on a manifesto well to the left of Labour and ended up serving in a government well to the right of Labour.
    The question is – did the voters vote for that?”

    Leaving aside the idea that technically everyone votes for a constituency representative
    1. Conservative voters presumably voted for a Conservative government
    2. Labour voters presumably voted for a Labour government
    3. What did LibDem voters vote for? Presumably enough MPs in Parliament to influence government policy. They surely did not expect a LibDem government, and it is not possible to vote for a coalition deliberately, for the result in terms of seats is not sufficiently predictable.
    Thus, the LibDem voters got their wish to a greater extent than they could have expected. The LibDems opted not to join another ‘left-wing’ party but the party with most people voting for it, rather than the party forming the last government and rejected. That decision only arose after the election. If it has led to the LibDems abandoning their manifesto in favour of a coalition agreement, their voters will at the next election have to decide afresh whether to continue to vote LibDem, and if the party judges that it is likely to be in a coalition again, it will have to decide whether to present a manifesto realistic in those circumstances.
    I’m not relying on Tony Blair’s judgment of what is right and what is left.

  22. @Phil Haines – “@Allan Christie

    You seemed yesterday to be advocating that NATO should become directly involved in a shooting war against Russian forces in the Ukraine.”

    Yes – these expansionist, imperialist Scottish Nationalists are an aggressive bunch, aren’t they?

    ‘Join NATO and see the world’ – could be an ad for the Yes campaign?

  23. It looks like 9 Tory MPs first elected in 2010 have already announced they are standing down. While only about 6% of the total 2010 intake, what’s more significant is that they all represent marginal seats – so that’s 9 marginals with no incumbency bonus. (8 in fact, as one is already Labour after a by election).

    It also suggests a developing sense that many don’t see a future within the parliamentary party, which is also significant, as the 2010 intake were meant to be the ones that rebuilt modern Toryism.

  24. PUTIN is playing an incredibly cynical & dangerous game.

  25. This is AW’s list of MP standing down. There seem to be more Labour than Con ?

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/retirements/

  26. How many of the Labour MPs standing down are in marginals?

    There are 9 LDs standing down, a healthy proportion…

  27. I’ve returned from my break from politics after getting drawn back in by the Clacton poll. Astounding stuff, very scary for both Cons and Labour.

    Colin,

    That makes sense. A large number (possibly a majority) of Conservative MPs were first elected in the 2001, 2005 and 2010 elections when the party was gaining seats. By contrast a large number of Labour members have been sitting since their last large numbers of gains in 1992 and 1997. Because they’ve served longer they’re more likely to retire.

  28. Alec – I have been impressed by many of the 2010 intake from both Labour and Conservatives.
    The expenses ‘scandal’ was not always fair with regards to which MPs were targetted but truth be known a lot of deadwood was cleared out.

    You may be right about some Tories in marginals being frit but I suspect that had they had jobs by now (even as low as PPS) they would be not be standing down.

    Negating any incumbency bonus (and if the former Lab MP is re-standing possibly giving a slight advantage the other way) is a consequence though as you highlight.

  29. sandys was a PPS as was jessica lee. simmonds was a minister…of course boston and skegness’ ukip threat had absolutely nothing to do with his stepping down.

  30. Fair comment Peter the 2 women but Simmonds elected in 2001 I think.

  31. “…and it is not possible to vote for a coalition deliberately, for the result in terms of seats is not sufficiently predictable.”

    ——–

    Often wondered about this line of argument. If the result is not sufficiently predictable then the same argument could be used to say you can’t vote for a Tory or Labour government. But obviously one can in reality, since voting Tory would make a Tory govt. a bit more likely.

    Similarly, one might not be able to predict the outcome, but one can vote to make a coalition more likely. Since another LD MP would normally make a coalition more likely.

    This is without, of course, considering that polling might make things sufficiently predictable…

  32. Signs of a slowing pace of recovery, but still recovery – http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29009651

    The final quote from this seems apposite – “While the worst days of the recession are definitely behind us, this survey also suggests that the finest days of the recovery are too. Gains are going to be a lot more hard-fought,”

    I don’t think the run in to GE 2015 is going to be characterized by a fast improving economy and sense of economic lift off.

  33. Maybe it’s time for… “Help to Buy” 3?…

  34. Populus Lab 36%, Con 32%, UKIP 15%, Lib Dem 9%, apparently…real polldrums…

  35. The Mail front page is shouting about energy prices, contrasting what we pay for energy with what the energy companies pay. Cost of living has been a bit quiet of late… One wonders whether it’ll amp ap again as the election draws near, or be quashed by immigration, Ed’s carp etc.

    Health has had some headlines… Intrigued as to which factors get the most exposure…

  36. Peter C
    Not quite unless you count the usual return on Monday for Populus; we had crossover on Friday!

  37. @Phil Haines

    Actually the “overtures” to Ukraine from NATO and the EU were that the Ukraine would not be considered for membership, and would not be considered for the foreseeable future. For the precise reason that Russia had strongly objected to Ukrainian membership of NATO and the EU.

    The whole crisis did not occur because of the EU wanting to absorb Ukraine, and you should be suspicious of people who tell you this because it’s clearly not true if you even cursorily look at the events leading up to the Euromaiden. The whole crisis was precipitated when the former president of Ukraine reneged on a negotiated power-sharing deal with the opposition, that included a joint agreement to have a *trade agreement* with the EU. Not membership, nothing to do with NATO, just a Trade agreement with Europe. Why did he do so? Apparently because Russia wanted to absorb Ukraine into it’s own trading union.

    Be very clear on this, the only party in this that has actually actively acted on absorbing parts of Ukraine into it’s self, and has already done so with the annexation by force of the Crimea, is Russia.

    If I were a European leader, right now I’d be arguing to reciprocate with a full ban on all food and animal feed to Russia, since Russia are trying to implement a porous and limited food import ban that only hurts Europe and not Russia. If Russians want to roll back the clock to a soviet state, then they shouldn’t get to participate in the western market place.

  38. this is more consistent with what we think is the underlying picture. friday was the outlier.

  39. Putin cynical?
    The analysis of George Soros, which I agree with, is that in his first years, Putin made huge concessions to the west expecting to be seen as the partner from heaven. Instead the west treated it as an indication of total weakness and put the boot in good and hard. Putin responded as we have seen.
    He is unlikely to be deflected by shrill comments from Danish and Lithuanian politicians. And will be encouraged that Germany’s response to US and UK calls to up its military spending is to say that it would annoy Russia (today’s press)

  40. Peter C
    That was actually supposed to be a humorous remark, as most of my posts are intended to be.

  41. sorry didn’t catch that …it’s looking grim for the blues….they were hoping to regain the initiative in the conference season, but this ukip by-election victory, which everyone is assuming, will overshadow the conference.

  42. Howard

    You need to try harder then.

    In the absence of a jolly good joke just try following your posts with a few LOLS – and at least one smiley.

    That should get them larfing in the aisle.

  43. For the very first time, I think the LDs failing to poll 10% at the GE is a distinct possibility.

    I do want to say one thing though: this is not a sudden acceptance that I was wrong all along. A shy LD factor was (and to a smaller extent still is) a given, as was (and to a smaller extent still is) tactical voting for them as the lesser of two evils.

    But with the Clacton situation any remaining grip on the “anything is better than one of those two alone” is stone dead with UKIP’s emergence. Furthermore, if Carswell romps home in Clacton, it would be untenable to include Clegg in a debate and not Farage. Given that I saw Clegg vs Miliband as a free shot to claw a bit of ground back (on the basis that the LD’s Labour-leaning vote can’t really be squeezed any further than it already has), they now face going into an election with an unpopular leader who won’t get to do the one thing for which having him as leader makes sense.

  44. @Barney Crockett

    Conversely, you could say that Putin made reforms to dismantle the soviet state that he considered concessions to the west, but that everyone else thought was just a really good idea to modernise and stabilise Russia. Russia’s relations with the rest of the world haven’t really ever been that great. For instance, Russia will never extradite a Russian citizen for trial abroad. This has of course led to known murderers simply returning to Russia where they are safe.

    Russia then never really grasped the concept of why you want to avoid monopolies forming, because they don’t have the institutional memory of the important of competition. And so Oligarchs started to build power and pyramid shaped economic empires. Which eventually resulted in the Kremlin intervening, but the way they intervened was to give power to Kremlin supporting Oligarchs and take it away from or even imprison Kremlin critics.

    And now finally we have the return of the Soviet-Glory-Days hardliners. Which actually I don’t think Putin is himself, but is now beholden to because they hold so much power in the Kremlin and he’s painted himself into a corner. The loud voices of the Soviet-Glory-Days hardliners who had been possible opponents, and some who had even declared actual opposition to his power, were given various sinecure positions in the Kremlin to shut them up.

    Unfortunately, one of those hardliners was Sergei Glazyev, and the meaningless sinecure position he’d been given was to set up a trade union of former soviet countries. Glazyev very quickly turned this into a project who’s long term aim was to create a new soviet power bloc. And he set his sights on restoring Ukraine to a Russian Soviet, something he had long argued for…

    And so the former president of Ukraine was strong armed into rejecting the EU trade deal in favour of a much closer and binding ‘trade deal’ with Russia. And now we’re where we are.

  45. Trade war with Russia?
    The great thing about a trade war from Putin’s point of view is that; he doesn’t care, enormous harm is done to the EU especially the Euro-zone and it doesn’t affect the US. Hence it divides the west.
    Any serious trade war would wreck Finland (already moving from recession to slump and with 15% of its trade with Russia), hammer the Netherlands and knock Germany.

  46. Over at the Telegraph, amid the headlines on manufacturing and a looming spectre over the markets of the 1929 crash, they also offer this…

    “Bankruptcy among pensioners is on the rise – why?
    More pensioners went bust last year than at the height of the recession. Research suggests lower annuity payouts, high living costs and easy credit are to blame”

    They also unsurprisingly blame low interest rates. Perhaps the most salient thing is that bankruptcies among this cohort are higher than during the peak of the Crunch, and are rising amongst this cohort despite falling more generally.

    They now represent 6 percent of all insolvencies, and the nature of their finances mean they are relatively unaffected by economic recovery. Which makes one naturally wonder about VI impact on that cohort…

    (But spend enough time here and most things might make one wonder about VI impact…)

  47. Indeed Barney.

    And it would do relatively little damage to the EU country most likely to do irreperable damage to it by deciding that the EU is not a good thing: the UK.

  48. Jay
    George Soros would agree with much of that (except to point out that Russian concessions to the west were very substantial) but how exactly would a trade war help?

  49. Chris H
    I don’t think the UK will leave but otherwise exactly

  50. I was considering posting that its quite sunny today after a drizzly start but am concerned that I may be requested to show my degree in meteorology [and wethery stuff] in order to support my observation.

    However, with midnight nearly eleven hours away I s’pose I may be safe so it IS quite sunny today after a etc etc etc etc.

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