The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is up here. Voting intentions are CON 32%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16%. The 16% for UKIP is the highest YouGov have shown them at for three months, just after the European elections. It’s likely that the publicity over Douglas Carswell’s defection may have helped this, but remember YouGov have updated their methodology since then which has also boosted UKIP by a point. A defection is pretty quickly forgotten though, the real kicker from the Carswell defection is the by-election that comes with it, if UKIP win that by anything like last night’s Survation poll suggests expect a much more concrete impact on the polls.

YouGov also asked again about Western intervention in Iraq. Support for humanitarian intervention (77% support) and American air strikes against ISIS (56% support) are broadly unchanged. Support for RAF participation in air strikes is 43%, down 2 points since a week ago. It’s not a significant change, but it suggests the steady growth in support for British airstrikes that YouGov had been recording has now halted. People are slightly less supportive of extending air strikes against ISIS into Syria – 45% would support US airstrikes in Syria (24% opposed), 37% would support British airstrikes in Syria (37% opposed).

86% of people think that British citizens going to fight for Islamist forces pose a threat when they return here, and 79% think British citizens fighting for ISIS has increased the risk of terrorist attack on Britain.

Turning to the situation in Rotherham, 75% of people think that Shaun Wright, the South Yorkshire Police Commissioner, should resign from his post. 74% think any other people in senior roles in Rotherham council or police at the time of the child sexual exploitation scandal should also resign. More generally YouGov asked if people thought that when an organisation commits serious errors the people at the top should resign anyway, or should they only resign if they are personally at fault. It was an even split – 42% thought an organisations leaders should resign in the case of serious error even if they were not personally to blame, 43% that they should only go if they were personally to blame.


361 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 32, LAB 36, LD 7, UKIP 16”

1 2 3 4 5 8
  1. Russia…the biggest threat to Europe since the cold war..So say NATO and the EU…

    But we are conducting air strikes in Iraq and possibly Syria?

    Where is the logic in that?

  2. ALLAN

    As I understand it any Conservative politician in Scotland gets a negative reaction.

    I always felt that a Con spokesman for NO-like DC_ would have the “credibility” of speaking for something which was not in their political interest-and so could supply a feeling of objective enthusiasm for the Union.

    But if no one listens to a Tory up there its a non-starter.

    Labour folk advocating NO seem to lack that “objectivity”.

  3. hookeslaw

    I don’t think the outers want to bothered by facts, ta very much.

  4. Chris Lane

    Seems that my sense of what is happening isn’t unique. Paul Mason’s article in the Observer seems to capture that sense of change.

    h

    ttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/31/scottish-independence-yes-vote-turnout-polls?CMP=twt_gu

  5. allan

    So, with you in charge we would just leave murderous scum like IS absolutely free to massacre innocent men, women and children without any response?

    You must be very proud of such a dispassionate, neutral attitude.

  6. Colin

    “As I understand it any Conservative politician in Scotland gets a negative reaction.”

    That’s actually not the case. Murdo Fraser got a lot of positive reaction and responses from many in Scotland when he was running for leadership of their Scottish branch.

    Unfortunately for him, insufficient of that favourable response was among Tory Party members.

    Despite the indifference of most to her party’s policies, Annabel Goldie was the subject of general affection (OK, a bit like that nice but other-world auntie, who insists on knitting a wrong size jumper for you every Xmas).

    It’s sensible to distinguish between responses to Conservatives who are part of the Scottish political system, and those who are currently in power at Westminster.

  7. Colin

    btw Annabel Goldie is not just a very nice lady (I’ve met her) but a very sharp political cookie who played her image for all it was worth!

  8. COLIN

    “As I understand it any Conservative politician in Scotland gets a negative reaction”
    _____

    I’m sorry Colin but that’s not good enough. Cameron is the elected PM for the (whole of the UK) and no part of it should be a no go area for him.

    It’s not about Cameron V Salmond, it’s about Cameron defending the union and Salmond defending independence.

  9. R&D

    “allan
    So, with you in charge we would just leave murderous scum like IS absolutely free to massacre innocent men, women and children without any response”
    ______

    I’m not in charge and that is why I can express my opinions but to answer your question with a question…Aren’t we doing the same with Ukraine?

    I will ignore the last part of your comment..It’s not worthy of a response.

  10. Ukraine/Russia are worlds away from a mad “religious” sect who wish to murder – including decapitation and crucifixion – EVERY SINGLE PERSON ON EARTH who does not conform to their singular, bizarre vision. It is a unique and terrifying belief system that needs to be confronted.

    That you criticise those who do exactly that simply because you’re “not in charge” is, frankly, pathetic.

  11. Leaders’ head to head debates are as useful to democracy as a chocolate tea pot. As we have seen it reveals nothing, delivers inane sound bites, and in the case of the last one, became an unwatchable shouting match. An embarrassment to Scotland.

    We will hopefully learn more about the arguments in a calm questuon time style panel debate. Hopefully.

  12. R&D

    You can be quite a bitter little hot head at times with people and you are hell bent on trying to second guess what other peoples thoughts are…You’re not that good at it..

    Okay now that I have got that of my chest…I agree with intervention in Iraq (maybe not Syria at this time) for the exact reasons you have stated but NATO and the EU have stated the biggest threat to Europe is Russia with its involvement in Ukraine..

    Just like in Iraq innocent people are being murdered so where is the NATO intervention? That’s all I’m asking.

  13. Statto

    “We will hopefully learn more about the arguments in a calm questuon time style panel debate.”

    We’ve actually had a number of those. Campaigners always tend to deliver sound bites, and endlessly repeat them, even in panel debates.

    “Question Time style” seems an odd choice though, for anyone to learn anything – other than that the BBC likes to put on provocative people and that Dimbleby couldn’t run the proverbial in a brewery!

    The QTs from Scotland over the last few years have been singularly awful.

  14. And another thing R&D..Just because you see things on the news which is upsetting to most of us, don’t bottle it up inside you and take it out on other people on forums.

  15. STATTO
    “Leaders’ head to head debates are as useful to democracy as a chocolate tea pot”
    ______

    Nothing wrong with a chocolate tea pot.. I have one.

  16. @Allan Christie

    That explains a lot!

  17. @Allan C
    ” It’s not about Cameron V Salmond, it’s about Cameron defending the union and Salmond defending independence”

    No. That’s not the case. The question on the card is “Should Scotland be an independent country?” and the only people who are being asked that question are people in Scotland. The UK has in effect agreed already to independence for Scotland, if you decide you want it. It’s your question, not the UK’s, and you need to debate it yourselves. If you wanted the rest of the UK to have a vote on the break up of the Union you should have made that clear a bit earlier in the game.

    It is, of course, much easier to point out the defects of the Union (which are real) than convince voters of the benefits of independence (which are hypothetical). No doubt that’s why Yes would like to have the current Defect in Chief of the Union (DC for short) parading round Scotland reminding Scots of the defects, so they don’t worry too much about those pesky hypothetical benefits.

  18. Another Tory MP in a marginal constituency stands down.

    Anticipation of unemployment is the greater part etc etc

  19. @Statto

    Now that was cruel :-)

  20. PostageIncluded

    But DC and his Ministers have been up here regularly (if briefly) to make speeches about the perils that await us if we slip from their benign grasp.

    Not that they stay long enough to be asked, much less answer, any questions. Both the current and former SoS for Scotland pleaded with their colleagues to stay a bit longer than just following the seagull management technique, but to no avail.

  21. POSTAGEINCLUDED

    Sorry that still doesn’t cut the mustard. I know what the question is and voting accordingly. Okay so it’s a debate amongst Scots so why is it the PM can come north and brief against independence but wont engage in the campaign? I’m not against Cameron briefing against it because he is the UK PM.

    “It is, of course, much easier to point out the defects of the Union (which are real) than convince voters of the benefits of independence (which are hypothetical)”
    _____

    I would had thought it was easier to defend something we already have now than to vote for something hypothetical?

    Dynamics dimensions etc!!

  22. Can I ask why we’re obsessed with Scotland again on a thread purportedly about a UK-wide poll on voting intention in the next GE?

  23. Pete B

    Well, Scotland is currently in the UK, and will still be in 2015, so it’s part of UK politics.

    Nothing stopping you from posting about the issues that might affect polling in your neck of the woods.

  24. “PETE B
    Can I ask why we’re obsessed with Scotland again on a thread purportedly about a UK-wide poll on voting intention in the next GE?”
    __________

    Don’t forget about Rotherham, 75% of people think that Shaun Wright, the South Yorkshire Police Commissioner, should resign from his post.

    I agree.

  25. OLDNAT

    I think we had better stick to the topics AW has posted polling evidence on with regards to this thread.

    So do you think Shaun Wright, the South Yorkshire Police Commissioner, should resign from his post?

  26. Russia threat to eu?
    I don’t think the eu has quite said that Russia is the biggest threat but that it was said by the leader of Lithuania which I think has the smallest military budget in nato combined with a very aggressive attitude to Russia..
    Tonight the Alternative, an anti-euro party has won seats in Saxony. A little-noticed feature of this party is its friendliness to Putin and to Russia, a friendliness which has strong echoes in traditional German nationalism. Perhaps Muti will return to her idea of a free trade zone covering Russia, the eu and north America.

  27. As someone (Mr Beeswax?) said earlier it could be that the Rotherham situation has had a bigger impact on the UKIP surge than the Carswell defection.

    Rightly or wrongly, the fact that the majority of abusers in Rotherham were of ‘Pakistani ethnicity’ reinforces anti-immigration feelings amongst the electorate, and UKIP are the only party seen to be strong on immigration, even though as far as I know they have never had a policy of controlling immigration from non-EU countries.

  28. Tory MP for Dudley Chris Kelly is standing down. Majority <4,000 – another marginal now with no incumbency bonus.

    I haven't got any numbers, but I keep noticing odd Tory MPs doing likewise, many of them seemingly one termers. This doesn't strike me as a sign of a party brimming with confidence in the future.

  29. @Oldnat

    Yes, I saw that tweet. It’s a damning indictment of how out of sync Labour is with the Scottish electorate. ‘Hate’ is fast going out of fashion, even if it’s the ‘hate’ of the least favoured party in Scotland.

    People want positive messages nowadays.

    Do I think that the referendum will be a ‘Yes’? No idea, but I’ve seen more Yes stickers, less off the cuff comments of it being a 60/40 No/Yes result, and far more bets going on a Yes result of late.

    With UKIP kicking off darn sarf, and Farage coming to Glasgow…heh heh!

  30. BARNEY

    “Nato chief: Crimea tensions ‘greatest threat’ since Cold War”

    That was back in March…It has now got worse and still no NATO intervention on the back of this Russian threat.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10710044/Ukraine-crisis-Nato-chief-calls-tensions-in-Crimea-greatest-threat-to-European-security-since-the-Cold-War.html

    Sorry for the long url but if I use tiny url it goes into to auto mod.

  31. @Postage

    “It’s your question, not the UK’s, and you need to debate it yourselves.”

    Oh, if only that were so. We’ve had pretty much every person without a vote sticking their oar in, from Obama to the 200 celebs giving love bombs.

    The MSM have been anything from “please don’t go” to “you had better not or else” to “go if you like, but it will be your fault”. I’ve never been in an abusive relationship, but the parallels are amusing. :))

  32. I think Chris Kelly has seen the writing on the wall in Dudley.

    Is this an early sign what we might call the “Clacton Effect” starting to come into play?

    :-)

  33. Statgeek

    Since it was a tweet from London HQ, I doubt it had much to do with Scotland (no matter how much Yessers have satirised it on social media, for their current love-in)

    I was assuming (could well be wrong) that the electorate in England & Wales wouldn’t respond to “hate” messages from one political party to another (Northern Ireland is somewhat different, though I gather that hate levels there are decreasing, thankfully).

  34. “STATGEEK
    @Postage
    “It’s your question, not the UK’s, and you need to debate it yourselves.”
    Oh, if only that were so. We’ve had pretty much every person without a vote sticking their oar in, from Obama to the 200 celebs giving love bombs”
    ____________

    Tell me about it..I had Bruce Forsythe sticking his big chin through my letter box telling me “You get nothing for a YES, not in this game”

  35. @OldNat

    Which they shouldn’t have done, in my view, if they are not voters. They’re entitled to express their opinions of course, but this is not a debate between the UK and Scotland. If it were, then everyone in the UK would be entitled to a vote. Only residents of Scotland are voters. You have excluded the rest of us by design. You can’t now demand that we take part, even the Defect in Chief.

  36. I wonder who will love bomb us next? Miss Piggy? Big Bird?……Kermit the Frog?

    Personally I would love to be loved bombed by Rihanna and Beyonce.

  37. PostageIncluded

    “by design”? You remind of Lord Foulkes Interviewed by Colin MacKay.

    Lord Foulkes: “The SNP are on a dangerous tack at the moment. What they are doing is trying to build up a situation in Scotland where the services are manifestly better than south of the border in a number of areas.”

    A clearly bemused Colin MacKay : “Is this such a bad thing?”

    Lord Foulkes: “No, but they are doing it deliberately.”

  38. @Allan C

    And I’ve given my opinion too. So what? There’s a difference between folks offering their opinions and being obliged to both state them and defend them.

    If the question were “Should the Union be ended” and the whole of the UK were voting I’d expect Defect in Chief as a Unionist and PM to head any debate. That isn’t happening and your silly demand that a non-combatant take the vanguard for the opposing army is a pretty transparent political ploy – if Gordon Brown were still PM you’d be using reasoning like mine to exclude him.

  39. @ Statgeek

    …and far more bets going on a Yes result of late.
    —————-
    Actually Mike Smithson is saying the opposite. And it’s also NO that is seeing the big money bets. e.g. The Wm Hill punter who had £600k on NO added another £200k to it this weekend.

  40. Amber

    I saw that on the ITV news. I do hope that none of them bet, since they don’t seem to understand that you don’t “make” £1m when four-fifths of that amount is your stake.

  41. POSTAGEINCLUDED

    ” if Gordon Brown were still PM you’d be using reasoning like mine to exclude him”
    ____

    Don’t be daft I don’t hold GB in high regard what so ever.

    Now again we are in disagreement. I do think it is the duty of the UK PM to stand up for the union wither he is a Tory or not. The Canadian PM debated in Quebec on several occasions.

    It’s such an important issue for all of the UK so if Cameron wont debate with Salmond because of some perceived advantage for the Yes side then one can only presume that his briefings are advantageous for the other side.

  42. pi at ac

    “your silly demand”

    Blimey !! You risk being called a “bitter little hothead” [LOL] with such appalling language.

  43. R&D

    “pi at ac
    “your silly demand”
    Blimey !! You risk being called a “bitter little hothead” [LOL] with such appalling language”
    ____

    Not at all. POSTAGEINCLUDED and I are in disagreement over a certain issue and I respect his/her views and conducting our correspondence in a amicable manner.

    The problem with you is that you can’t debate without going down the personal insult path.

  44. LOL

  45. Allan Christie @ Postage Included

    I’d have thought that the political leader of any state would use any tactic to prevent that state from being extinguished/diminished. If engaging in debate was thought helpful, he’d do that, or not if thought unhelpful (which it would clearly be).

    It seems unlikely that the result (whatever it is) will be the walkover for the UK Union that they appeared to think would be the case.

    If it’s a Yes vote, then Westminster will have miscalculated. If it’s a No vote, then there’s an easy solution for them never to have to run the risk again.

    On 10th July Westminster opened a consultation on whether the UK should have a codified constitution or not. It would be a simple matter to include a provision that no part of the UK could become independent without a referendum of all UK citizens.

    Having a Spanish solution to a UK problem would be a nice irony, given the status of Gibraltar. Perhaps they would need to add in clauses to stop the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man from changing their current relationship with the UK as well.

  46. OLDNAT

    I’m thinking about Cameron’s words after the 2011 Scottish election… “I will fight with every fibre in my body to keep the UK together” ..Or something along they line.

    I don’t buy this notion that Cameron is too toxic to debate on independence, he does it time after time in Westminster!! Okay surely he can debate with some lesser entity…Nicola? perhaps not.
    ….

    “On 10th July Westminster opened a consultation on whether the UK should have a codified constitution or not. It would be a simple matter to include a provision that no part of the UK could become independent without a referendum of all UK citizens.
    Having a Spanish solution to a UK problem would be a nice irony, given the status of Gibraltar. Perhaps they would need to add in clauses to stop the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man from changing their current relationship with the UK as well”
    _______

    Well that’s irony for you.

  47. “This doesn’t strike me as a sign of a party brimming with confidence in the future.”

    MPs standing down that is. The prob for MPs in marginals standing down is one of timing. Their constittuency party needs time to select another canidate, who will then have only a few months in which to campaign and get their name across. I have to admit that I expected many more to have declare their intention to ‘retire’ from Westminster, and to have done so months ago. Very few have done so. But I do expect several more ( before Xmas) to announce their intention to stand down. Why bother spending weeks/ months door knocking if you are sure you will soon be out of a job ?

  48. Ozwald

    ” Why bother spending weeks/ months door knocking if you are sure you will soon be out of a job ?”

    Good point.

    I had wondered why a fair number of Labour MPs (including mine) have been somewhat invisible during the referendum campaign.

  49. Stonehenge was originally a complete circle.

  50. R&D

    “Stonehenge was originally a complete circle.”

    It still is – unless you’ve been nicking bits of it for your garden.

1 2 3 4 5 8