Quick off the mark following Douglas Carswell’s defection on Thusday Survation have a poll of Clacton in the Mail on Sunday that apparently shows a cracking great UKIP lead.

From the details that have been tweeted out so far the topline figures are CON 20%(-33), LAB 13%(-12), LDEM 2%(-11), UKIP 64%(+64%). We don’t have dates, sample size, questions and so on yet but prima facie it’s pretty unambiguous: Carswell will romp home with ease. If it does happen so convincingly expect a big impact in the national polls too from the publicity and the impact of people seeing a UKIP vote can return a UKIP MP (not to mention whatever temptations it would throw to any other potential Conservative defectors…)

UPDATE: Tabs are here, sample size 700, done on Thurs-Fri.


85 Responses to “Survation show UKIP 44 points ahead in Clacton”

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  1. Can I just point out that this is a Clacton thread.

  2. Chris Hornet fpt

    Have a look here for help on italics, bold etc

  3. “Can I just point out that this is a Clacton thread.”

    Typical separatist narrow mindedness!

  4. Alec

    Glad that we can share a joke!

  5. I think this poll could be extremely significant. While I applauded Carswell’s decision to resign, rather than just cross the floor, I did wonder if this was counter productive for UKIP.

    Not many MPs would follow such a principled stand, while had he stayed in parliament under UKIP colours, it would have been easier to see others walk the floor to join him. A poll like this, and the result it implies, means it’s open door for crossers. Tory whips will be deeply stressed.

  6. Just to divert briefly into MacBethian affairs, I would imagine that this poll may be seized on as evidence of the general drift of Westminster politics by those seeking to leave the UK.

    In fact, it would seem pretty clear that this result would mean fears of Tory rule of these isles will be severely dented, and thus should logically mean those using this as motivation for separation are running out of road. However, I suspect it won’t be seen this way.

    Incidentally – this poll suggests a Tory – Lab swing of 15.5%.

  7. Thanks everyone

    “Can I just point out that this is a Clacton thread.”

    And I wonder if the good people of Clacton, Frinton and Walton-on-the-Naze will vote for the status quo or a step into the unknown in the historic vote they will get in a few weeks time.

  8. Alec

    To remain on Clactonian issues (and who could forget that Stanley Holloway met his wife while appearing at the theatre there!) I suspect it is more likely to be seen as evidence of the general drift of Westminster politics by those seeking to stay in the EU.

  9. Chrishornet

    Congratulations on italicising

  10. From previous thread:

    If Carswell wins by 44% I’ll offer Farage my services next May if he wants to throw out the sofa at number 10 and put a new one in.

    Can’t help but feel that this poll will end up being used by the Tories after their likely defeat by a considerably smaller margin. If they were to end up losing by less than say, fifteen points, they can claim that they have gained a lot of ground in a short period of time: that Carswell’s voters have started to abandon him as they have realised what UKIP is really about, and that the longer the campaign goes on the more Kippers they will win around.

    That’s not my view by the way, just what I suspect the post-poll narrative will be.

  11. Chrishornet

    I think we can guarantee that, whatever the result, the participating parties will put their inevitable spin upon it.

    Their tame newspapers will confuse news and spin when “reporting” the by election result.

    The more credulous readers of those papers will take that spin as gospel (and some may even repeat it on UKPR!)

  12. I posted when Carswell resigned that it made political sense to resign his seat too – so he could benefit from the publicity now (which this poll demonstrates) and incumbency in May. Still, a lot of water will flow under the bridge before the by election, and a lot of it may be quite dirty, so I’m not writing the Tories off just yet.

    Odd that Labour are losing so few voters overall, though I assume this is because their losses are pretty much covered by defecting LDs, whose collapse here is as signal as the huge UKIP lead.

  13. From Survation’s twitter:

    Good evening campers. Apologies for the radio silence, full information on our Clacton poll will follow shortly…

    Presumably the MoS put a midnight embargo on them, not that that foiled Anthony and his merry persons.

    Worth pointing out that Survation’s constituency polls are usually only 500, so if effective sample is half that MoE may be high.

  14. Mike Smithson tweet

    Latest YouGov for S Times not quite as dramatic as Survation Clacton poll Con 32, Lab 36, LD 7, UKIP 16

    Was Anthony just winding us up, when he knew the YG poll was there?

  15. “From the details that have been tweeted out so far the topline figures are CON 20%(-33), LAB 13%(-2), LDEM 2%(-11), UKIP 64%(+64%)”
    __________

    It’s going to be a two horse race between UKIP and the Lib/Dems.

  16. “The more credulous readers of those papers will take that spin as gospel (and some may even repeat it on UKPR!)”

    Not many of those here, thankfully.

  17. Well it was never going to happen anyway, but:

    If Boris Johnson stood as the CON candidate? (change from initial)
    CON 27% (+7)
    LAB 10% (-3)
    LD 1% (-1%)
    UKIP 60% (-5%)
    Other 2% (+1%)

  18. As the sites token UKIP supporter, I am pleased

  19. “ALEC
    Just to divert briefly into MacBethian affairs, I would imagine that this poll may be seized on as evidence of the general drift of Westminster politics by those seeking to leave the UK”
    _______

    Yes it’s open season on that front. Come on UKIP do it for Eck and Co.

  20. Something is clearly wrong. Labour were 25% in the last election. Down 2% to 13% doesn’t work.

  21. Survation tables available via here:

    http://t.co/NyznaUzB8I

  22. Allan Christie

    “Come on UKIP do it for Eck and Co.”

    Be fair! They’re doing their best. Haven’t you seen the front page of tomorrow’s Sunday Post?

  23. SKIPPY
    As the sites token UKIP supporter, I am pleased
    _____

    No I’m warming to UKIP as well. British independence and Scottish independence…What’s the Better together slogan again?…”Best of both Worlds” .. Couldn’t resist..

  24. Alec

    That’s OK then. As Labour are due for a 15% swing from Tories in Clacton, Mrs Miliband can start measuring the curtains in Number 10 … mmm … Or perhaps not …

  25. Things look really interesting as a bystander.

    If I was at Labour or Conservative HQ I’d be bricking it at the moment.

    All those plans and timelines that no doubt have been created up to May 2015 look to be no more than a wild stab in the dark.

    If this action of Mr Carswell produces a big UKIP win, how many more MPs might consider the same move?

    Interesting times is an understatement.

  26. Tweets reporting similar YouGov figures to Opinium – Lab 36, Con 32, UKIP 16, LDem 7

  27. Latest Opinium and YouGov polls suggest that the Friday Populus poll was a bit of an outlier and, don’t yawn at the back of the class, the Labour lead of circa 4% trundles serenely on. Whether the Carswell defection has any longer term effect remains a tantalising thought for now, bearing in mind the Sunday YouGov suggests no immediate polling impact, but this Survation Clacton poll is sensational if accurate. If Carswell wins big then it may well deal Cameron a lethal blow, not just in terms of his personal standing within the party but also what it might do for the morale of the troops as they prepare for battle in 8 months time. It could also embolden other Tory MPs flirting with UKIP and currently being wined and dined by ex Tory donor Wheeler.

    I don’t know how anyone who isn’t the most blinkered Tory loyalist could dress this up as anything other than an unmitigated disaster for the party. Their worst nightmares, and my predictions of 18 months ago when I observed the UKIP beast stirring, are coming true.

    Mr Miliband smiling to himself this weekend, I suspect. Why wouldn’t he be as sees his political enemies clearing him a path to Downing Street. 35% strategy looks a banker to me.

  28. OLDNAT

    LOL Fromage frais (His name in French) heads north to save the union…

    That’s like putting a fire out with petrol.

  29. WELSH BORDERER
    Alec
    That’s OK then. As Labour are due for a 15% swing from Tories in Clacton, Mrs Miliband can start measuring the curtains in Number 10 … mmm … Or perhaps no
    ______

    I think you might be onto something. Seen the Milibands in B&M stores today looking at curtains.

  30. What is interesting is the claim by Lord that UKIP were on course to win, and that Carswell’s resignation has more to do with trying to salvage his seat than with any principled switch to UKIP.

    Supposing there is some truth in this, if Carswell does win at a canter, then others at risk from a UKIP challenge may well be motivated to do the same. Which would be interesting to say the least.

  31. Looking at the tables only 28% of 2010 Conservatives will still vote Conservative, with 45.3% intending to vote UKIP.

    That can’t be right.

    If it is, I am truly, deeply, shocked.

  32. @ Welsh Borderer
    ‘Meanwhile the Clacton opinion poll shows Labour being squeezed senseless in a seat they won in 2001 and came second in 2010’

    That is actually codswallop – simply because this seat did not exist in 2001! Labour did win Harwich in 2001 – but Harwich forms no part of the Clacton constituency.

  33. Very interesting Clacton poll! It will not be to UKIP’s long-term disadvantage if they only manage to attract defections from the Tories. This would reinforce the old ‘blazer-wearing golf club member’ stereotype that they were branded with a couple of years ago, just when they appeared to be making inroads into the Labour and non-voter markets after the recent local elections.

  34. No referendum polls tonight? I’d heard rumours of a YouGov one around presumed for the Sunday Sun/Times?

  35. GRAHAM

    “That is actually codswallop – simply because this seat did not exist in 2001! Labour did win Harwich in 2001 – but Harwich forms no part of the Clacton constituency”
    ______

    Is Coswallop near the Cotswolds?

  36. Survation’s sample was actually 700, reducing to an effective sample of 452 and an MoE of about 4.5 points.

    Survation don’t weight for past vote or equivalent. Which might or might not be wise as the recalled vote looks rather odd:

    Con 61% (53)

    Lab 18% (25)

    Lib Dem 7% (13)

    UKIP 12% (er zero)

    Other 2% (9)

    Actuals in brackets. There was no UKIP candidate of course as Carswell got one of the half-dozen of so UKIP ‘coupons’. Of course some people may have voted for a UKIP candidate elsewhere but on only under 4% nationally it still very high. 68% claimed to have voted (actually 64%), which is a bit lower than I would have expected

  37. @Alec (and others)

    I go with Postage on this one. This is what I posted last night on the Clacton constituency thread (slightly amended for context)…..

    Along with the bookies, the polls, and almost everyone here, I don’t doubt Carswell will win the by-election.

    However, this feels a bit Dick Taverneish. As far as I can remember, there have only been two instances in the last half century of MPs changing party and resigning to seek endorsement in a by-election. Bruce Douglas-Mann lost his by-election, and we all agree that won’t happen this time. Taverne won his in 1973, and (just) held on in Feb 74, losing (just) in October.

    I see Carswell losing (just) next May.

    I know I’ll be hammered with “this ain’t 1973? and “this ain’t Lincoln” kicks. I don’t dispute either, and am not attempting to draw a historical analogy. Rather, I feel that by-elections are all sui generis, but that in general elections voters are more likely to be thinking about the next government. And not even Farage in his dreams expects a UKIP government next year. After all, it took the Libs 15 years from their rising-from-the-dead under Jo Grimond before they got a sniff of government (were Heath serious in Feb 74, which he wasn’t), and another 35 years before they actually got there. Big politics moves like glaciers: glacially, but overwhelming when it actually happens.

    Incidentally, I don’t buy into the “honourable thing to do” narrative. This implies that the dozens of MP defections over the years, of all parties, were dishonourable. Piffle and balderdash, as my mum used to say.

    It’s all politics. Those who don’t resign are either (a) confident of re-election at the next general election, or (b) much more often, not expecting to win, or not even planning to stand, and in either case don’t plan on extending their political career.

    Poor Carswell (like Taverne before him) wants to continue his career, but without a by-election may well have expected to lose next May as a defector, by which time the Tories will have had ample time to organise the candidate and the campaign. The by-election is engineered to prevent the unelected-defector narrative, and (he hopes) give him momentum.

  38. Wasn’t Clacton where London Mods and Rockers descended in the 1960s to mount their gladiatorial contests?

    Maybe the folk there just want to be in the news again, in the hope of bringing more people to visit through “black tourism”.

  39. @Pete B

    I tend to agree but the Labour collapse is not a million miles away from that of the Tories. They’ve lost half their vote here, and the Lib Dems have…well..

    Beyond this area being receptive to UKIP, I think Carswell just has a basic, core set of beliefs or principles people of all parties can jive with (cherry pick those which apply).

    I’m still a tad surprised by this poll though.

  40. Shame I can’t out Welsh Borderer and Graham right, but there you go. I expect there’ll be many more factual inaccuracies…….

  41. @ Roger Mexico

    It could be that some of the Clacton sample are recalling their EU rather than their GE 2010 vote. Maybe Carswell saw the EU election returns by polling station & this tipped him off that he might struggle in 2015.

    Carswell might’ve been thinking that UKIP wouldn’t stand a candidate against him but then UKIP did select a candidate, Roger Lord.

    Do you (or does anybody here) know the date when Roger Lord was selected as UKIP’s GE2015 candidate for Clacton?

  42. Amber Star

    Do you (or does anybody here) know the date when Roger Lord was selected as UKIP’s GE2015 candidate for Clacton?

    End of July apparently:

    http://www.clactonandfrintongazette.co.uk/news/clacton_frinton_news/11373441.UKIP__We_re_coming_for_your_seat_Mr_Carswell_/

    (hat-tip East Anglian Lefty on Vote UK Forum).

    I wondered about the confusion with May as well, but Survation’s wording is pretty clear and in a phone poll it can be emphasised. And it doesn’t account for the Conservative’s figure being high as well.

    I also wonder if the actual timing may flatter Carswell and UKIP. Fieldwork was Thur say/Friday when the coverage was at its height. The same also applies to the latest YouGov as well – that 16% is, I think the highest they’ve had outside the May/June election period with YouGov.

  43. Amber

    Some good points raised there. Only possibilities, as you say, but logical ones.

  44. Roger Mexico

    Agreed that Survation’s wording is clear – but the same may not be true of what the respondents were reacting to – not the detail of the question but just the first part “Which party did you vote for”.

    The answer may have already been triggered by that, and the rest of the question effectively blanked.

    Such a reaction to the “trigger” part of a question is relatively common among students taking multiple choice tests, and I’ve never found that adults are much sharper than kids in such matters!

  45. @AW

    Silly question, I know, and hardly of earth-shattering importance, but why are the message times on the the main pages BST but on the constituency pages they’re GMT?

    [It doesn’t flick automatically, I have to change it when BST comes and goes. To be honest, until you mentioned it just now it had never crossed my mind to even check if the two parts of the site had separate settings! – AW]

  46. @ROBIN

    “What is interesting is the claim by Lord that UKIP were on course to win, and that Carswell’s resignation has more to do with trying to salvage his seat than with any principled switch to UKIP.

    Supposing there is some truth in this…”

    ———–

    Well apparently only about a third of the Ukip voters are doing so ‘cos it’s Carswell, the greater number are saying it’s because it’s Ukip, with 9% saying it’s a protest vote. So if two thirds would have voted Ukip anyway even sans Carswell, that’s still over 40%…

  47. Old Nat

    It’s a phone poll though and it’s less easy to blank out part of the question when talking to a real person than it is when reading something. But you’d expect a lot of the fake UKIP vote to come from the Tories[1] and they’re 8 points up up on their true value not down.

    One confounding factor here though is that 2010 may have flattered the Labour vote a little. The candidate had been the MP for a lot of the constituency up to 2005, so there may have been a personal vote.

    [1] Some might also come from Others, especially the near 5% BNP

  48. ChrisLane1945,

    On Labour winning in 1978: an election around that time was a good election to lose. With an oil crisis hitting in 1979-1980, the labour market increasingly clogged with underskilled baby-boomers, a brutal depression in the US in 1982, and the UK economy having a long way to go before trend inflation reached an acceptably low level, I think that any government would have struggled, especially a coalition government. And it’s hard to say how the Falklands would have been handled by someone other than Thatcher, simply because it was such an unusual situation that most PMs have never faced, i.e. Britain being basically alone facing a minor but clear invasion of our territory.

    On the other hand, a lot of the Labour party went a little crazy after 1979, and if they had been in government cooler heads may have prevailed. There may have never even been an SDP split. And the Tories would have likely won a good election to win in 1983, assuming the Liberals couldn’t get PR. So one can imagine the UK arriving at a two-party system in the mid-1980s, probably under Thatcher because the Tories were more tolerant of leaders losing back then.

  49. I wonder what the balance is in UKIP support between those who think UKIP leadership sound like ordinary people who understand and come from people like us, and those who listen to their policies. 75 to 25%, I would guess.
    I listened to Cameron’s statement about the threat of IS yesterday, and was mainly struck by sensing that he sounded both like a posh bloke from the 1930’s, and that he was out of his depth: that he has the reins of overnment but, whether in respect of Islamicism or any other fundamental social or political problem threatening UK stability, beyond the City, the reality may be inaccessible to him and to many in Government, a hole in the body politic that UKIP and other parties that sound like us will fill.

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