Quick off the mark following Douglas Carswell’s defection on Thusday Survation have a poll of Clacton in the Mail on Sunday that apparently shows a cracking great UKIP lead.

From the details that have been tweeted out so far the topline figures are CON 20%(-33), LAB 13%(-12), LDEM 2%(-11), UKIP 64%(+64%). We don’t have dates, sample size, questions and so on yet but prima facie it’s pretty unambiguous: Carswell will romp home with ease. If it does happen so convincingly expect a big impact in the national polls too from the publicity and the impact of people seeing a UKIP vote can return a UKIP MP (not to mention whatever temptations it would throw to any other potential Conservative defectors…)

UPDATE: Tabs are here, sample size 700, done on Thurs-Fri.


85 Responses to “Survation show UKIP 44 points ahead in Clacton”

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  1. I’m shocked at the scale of the apparent UKIP lead at Clacton reported in this poll. It suggests that the anyone-but-UKIP vote is much smaller than I thought here and doesn’t clearly identify who they should vote for. It also highlights how Eurosceptic some parts of England are and how much Cameron is loathed in what should be a Tory heartland. Scottish voters on 18/9/14 need to take note of this poll and the risk to Scotland’s future membership of the EU if they vote NO.

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  2. I also wondered whether, go beyond the contributory factor of immigration, the knowledge systems of government and the political apparatus have been lost or are unfit for purpose: for example, how it can be that the Derby child abuse case of July 2012 could be precisely the same, consistent of the same pathological components as that at Rotherham, and not known and acted on there – and in how many other boroughs? How it could be that 20 years ago I could be involved in a study at Derby that identified the dangers of high ethnic minority youth unemployment and see the same figures or worse in the West Midlands and Yorkshire contributing to, not just a contingent disaster, but a deep and lasting cancer in UK urban society, but to recognise, in an unaware and uncaring local bureaucracy, one unchanging element in a failed system?

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  3. Update – Labour lead at 4

    Latest YouGov / Sunday Times results 29th August –

    Lab 36%
    Con 32%
    UKIP 16%
    LD 7%
    Greens 4%
    SNP / PCY 3%
    Others 1%

    APP -25

    The 3 traditional parties scoring mediocre (Lab), poor (Cons) and dreadful (LD)

    UKIP higher than usual taking more 2010 Cons, but not more 2010 Lab supporters yet. i would give it a few more days though

    The economic questions are slightly better for the coalition parties this week.

    The question

    How do you think the financial situation of your
    household will change over the next 12 months? -15% up 4% Better 19%, worse 34% – still in the 15 to 21% range of 2014

    Cons growing in optimism +23%, but Lab -36% and UKIP -38% plunged in gloom and misery. The improvement is due to the LDs, this week +11%, These LD supporter are a changeable lot, one week down, next week up.

    As the last week of the month is when pay slips are often issued, I was checking if working age people, (most commonly in the age groups 25 to 59) had become more optimistic

    25 to 40
    last week this week
    -4% -8%

    41 to 59
    last week this week
    -24% -23%

    As you can see very little change. I predict therefore that pay did not pick up significantly in August.

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  4. @Bill P

    “And it’s hard to say how the Falklands would have been handled by someone other than Thatcher, simply because it was such an unusual situation that most PMs have never faced, i.e. Britain being basically alone facing a minor but clear invasion of our territory.”

    ————-

    David Owen’s comment at the time was that whenever Argies were getting a bit angsty over the Falklands, they’d send a destroyer down there, thus dissuading any action from Argies. In contrast to removing the only ship in the area…

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  5. @Roger Mexico – imagine people are recalling voting UKIP at local and Euro elections.

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  6. Assuming Douglas wins, that surely makes the argument that Nigel Farage should be included in the TV debates (if they happen) stronger.

    That would be significant in my view, because it would elevate UKIP into the mainstream, something Mr Cameron and Miliband would not be too keen on.

    I imagine the Conservatives and Labour are trying to work out if a resurgent UKIP affects them or their opponent the most.

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  7. @FP

    “As the last week of the month is when pay slips are often issued, I was checking if working age people, (most commonly in the age groups 25 to 59) had become more optimistic”

    ————

    One also wonders, if there was a significant improvement in optimism, to what extent Govt. VI would benefit, as opposed to people feeling a bit miffed by it having taken so long and having seen a decline in real terms cumulatively over a number of years.

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  8. There’s a polling question in there somewhere…

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  9. Good Morning All.
    Thank you for your detailed post.

    I agree that the Tories and Labour have bad figures here, but the LD will be happy with her/his figure; IMO

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  10. Difficult for the Tories. Newark might be seen as their Battle of the Bulge.

    Many MPs have been saying privately that they are not prepared to campaign against Carswell.

    Cameron had been preparing to announce that he would campaign for the Brexit under certain circumstances, but this is seen a patent electioneering by many in his party. The PM is always very careful in his rhetoric (see the latest comments on Ukraine) to portray Europe, in any public statement, as something Other …it is never enough though.

    Ukip mission wrt the Conservative Party going from strength to strength.

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  11. “If it does happen so convincingly expect a big impact in the national polls too from the publicity and the impact of people seeing a UKIP vote can return a UKIP MP (not to mention whatever temptations it would throw to any other potential Conservative defectors…) ”

    Very rarely does Anthony suggest any possible poll movement from one event. So even if he is as stunned as the rest of us about this poll I think we should take note of possible consequences. It should certainly keep the UKIP vote stable at a time of year when they normally start to fall back a bit and because it follows party conferences it totally derails the assumption by many on here that Party Conferences would be the start of swingback and things returning to the status quo.

    One poll question that was mentioned in the last thread was the total disinterest in the “voting UKIP makes a Miliband government more likely” question. I wonder if this is unique to Clacton and based on the number of Lab and LD who seem to have moved to UKIP or whether UKIP voters as a whole really don’t care. That has been the big squeezeback to Tory question that many people expect to happen and are relying on for a Tory recovery next year.

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  12. UKIP only 60% if Boris Johnson stands …
    I don’t suppose he will.

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  13. @Roger Mexico

    I agree, the Survation 2010 past voter split looks dodgy, with 2010 Conservatives overrepresented and even more so if you make some reasonable adjustments for where the ficticious 12% who couldn’t by definition have voted UKIP in 2010 might have come from. Although with a poll as decisive as this we might be splitting hairs.

    On the other hand, if the Conservatives are looking for any silver lining in this poll (and goodness, they need one) it might be that in a poll conducted within 24 hours of a Conservative MP’s defection, it’s not surprising that there are a large % of 2010 Conservative undecideds, all of whom have been ignored in the headline figures.

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  14. As someone here has already said, this is like Lincoln for Labour in March 1973, except, of course, Labour was the party in opposition.

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  15. @Shevii

    There are precious few genuine game changers around.

    This has the makings of one for sure.

    @Billybob

    Many MPs have been saying privately that they are not prepared to campaign against Carswell.

    Does this mean that:

    a) They quietly are sympathetic to UKIP?

    or

    b) They are scared becoming a UKIP target themselves for fighting Carswell?

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  16. I am amazed that anybody finds the result of this poll surprising. Immigration is at the top of the agenda for a large part of the population, especially in the eastern counties and people understand (at last) that immigration cannot be curbed under any government while we are still in the EU.

    UKIP will take Clacton comfortably IMO.

    Sunny day here, walking should be good. have a nice day all.

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  17. It is lovely on our beach here; school tomorrow.

    Maybe Owen Patterson will ‘defect’ to the UKIP.

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  18. @TOH

    I love your insouciance! Imagine a scenario whereby a Labour MP ups sticks and joins the Greens, citing Labour’s complete failure to develop credible policies on a range of environmental and social issues. He or she holds a safe seat with a five figure majority in the North of England and decides to resign and fight a by election. The first poll then shows the Greens with a 44% lead in the said constituency.

    It would be the end of the Labour Party as we know it, wouldn’t it? Tory commentators would be spewing out doomsday and apocalyptic forebodings by the absolute shed load. Miliband would obviously have to do the decent thing and take a loaded pistol into a quiet room while we all waited eagerly outside for the inevitable gunshot.

    :-)

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  19. Carfrew,

    I don’t think one can assume that a Lib-Lab coalition would make all the right judgement calls, just because.

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  20. If Scotland votes YES (they won’t be grown-up if they cling to nanny Westminster’s coat-tails), the presence of a significant number of UKIP MPs after a rUK GE in 2015 could lead to a completely hung HoC, e.g. with Con 271, Lab 268, LD 16, UKIP 15, PC 3, NI 18. In E&W (IMO, an unsustainable entity), this would be a net gain to Lab of 50 and net losses to Con & LD of 35 and 30 respectively, and seems plausible on current polling.

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  21. CROSSBAT11

    Why do you expect me to be bothered? I’m not a Tory although I do share some Tory ideas. I have stated a number of times that I am a libertarian economically and very conservative socially. The sort of government I would like to see will not come to pass in the UK as I think the majority of the population are too soft (scared) to vote for it. Whichever party wins the election in 2015 will just continue the UK’s decline (slower if Tory IMO).

    The defection to UKIP does not help the Tory cause, indeed it forces me to think that the Tories will probably do no better than largest number of seats at the next election. Either way it matters not which is why I am laid back about it all.

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  22. @catmanjeff

    Yes (in many cases) and very definitely yes, to a) and b).

    Conservative luminaries like Lord Ashcroft and Charles Moore have always had a soft spot for Carwell… from the perspective of an MP it would be campagning to get a colleague sacked from his job

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  23. @Shevii
    “One poll question that was mentioned in the last thread was the total disinterest in the “voting UKIP makes a Miliband government more likely” question. I wonder if this is unique to Clacton and based on the number of Lab and LD who seem to have moved to UKIP or whether UKIP voters as a whole really don’t care. That has been the big squeezeback to Tory question that many people expect to happen and are relying on for a Tory recovery next year.”

    UKIP supporters I have spoken to here (West Midlands) generally fall into 3 camps:-
    1) Ex- or non-voters who finally feel they have a respectable party they can vote for
    2) Ex-Labour voters who are fed up with immigration causing pressure on housing, schools, hospitals etc
    3) Ex-Tory voters ditto and who despise Cameron and his set

    None of these would care much whether Labour or Tories won the next election as they can see little to choose between them. This is just a local picture, but I don’t suppose it’s unique. Cameron’s message of ‘Vote UKIP, get Labour’ might actually encourage Labour voters in safeish Tory seats to vote UKIP.

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  24. Opinium:

    Lab 36% (+4 points on a fortnight ago)
    Con 30% (+2)
    Ukip 16% (-5)
    LD 7% (-3)
    Green 4% (nc)

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  25. @BILL PATRICK

    “I don’t think one can assume that a Lib-Lab coalition would make all the right judgement calls, just because.”

    ——-

    Was just pointing out what had been standard practice, up until ’82…

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  26. “This is just a local picture, but I don’t suppose it’s unique. Cameron’s message of ‘Vote UKIP, get Labour’ might actually encourage Labour voters in safeish Tory seats to vote UKIP.”

    ————-

    There’s the thing. If it encourages Labour (and maybe some LDs) only in seats where Labour wouldn’t win anyway, then Tories have a problem. But if Lab lose more votes to Ukip in seats where Lab have a chance of winning, then they too have a problem…

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  27. PK’s piece in today’s ST is interesting & has the ring of truth for me.

    It also emphasises the attitude of some UKIPers which I have exampled from my own friends.

    And of course it shows the incorrect analysis which lies behind CB11’s 9.13am retort to TOH .

    PK asks the eternal question forever being asked by Conservative supporters-for God’s sake , doesn’t NF realise that he will put EM into Downing Street-is he stupid ?

    PK’s answer is that NF isn’t stupid. He wants a long term future for his party. An EU referendum under a DC administration with a majority vote to stay in , would finish UKIP.

    PK concludes that NF would ” sacrifice a referendum for a shot at glory.”

    I would put it like this :-

    NF doesn’t want an EU referendum-so he doesn’t want a DC lead government. He wants a Labour Government, a re-aligned Conservative/UKIP Party, and a GE in which it sweeps to victory promising to exit EU regain control all immigration to UK., and release UK’s economy from the sclerotic rules & regulations of a failing EZ.

    It is way past the time when the Conservative Party should realise that the answer to their question is-he want EM in power.

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  28. Well, that looks as if UKIP can concentrate their vote enough to possibly win a few seats, as they need on a relatively low national vote share. They just need the right candidate.

    Elsewhere, UKIP is going to do some interesting things to safe-ish Conservative seats, opening the door to someone else in some places.

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  29. @Colin

    Someone cited the Kellner piece over at PB and also mentioned another piece in the ST claiming further possible developments, including Goldsmith migrating to Ukip, and some Tory MPs waiting until after December to defect so a by-election need not be held.

    Which would keep Ukip in the spotlight in the run up to the election…

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  30. New thread up.

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  31. CARFREW
    The Con. Conference is going to be interesting.

    DC’s speech will be entitled “Between a rock & a hard place”.

    He must be hoping that the GE will be well and truly post all this UKIP hype-including at Clacton.

    I wouldn’t bet on it personally. I think NF is collecting the most committed bunch of Kamikazes we have experienced in fourty years.

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  32. …………and Labour need to keep their eye on the Rotherhams of their northern “heartlands” lest the lounge bar stool under their complacent crowing gets a hearty kicking :-)

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  33. @Daodoa
    If Scotland votes YES (they won’t be grown-up if they cling to nanny Westminster’s coat-tails), the presence of a significant number of UKIP MPs after a rUK GE in 2015 could lead to a completely hung HoC,

    Am wrong in thinking that whether or not Scotland votes Yes the general election in 2015 will include all the seats in Scotland?

    A Yes vote has no legal effect in itself and the people of the UK north of the border could not be disenfranchised until after they have independence. It will up to the next Parliament to deal with all the legislation needed for an independent Scotland, and the Scots would be entitled to have their MPs in the house until the divorce has been established.

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  34. FWIW, the swing Con-Lab in this poll from 2010 is 10.5% not 15.5% as Alec posted previously.

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  35. Vote UKIP get labour cuts no ice with the average UKIP voters they are euther so disillusioned with the conservatives that they dont care, or are ex labour voters who would prefer labour anyway, or are in fact people who never have voted for any other party at all.

    The conservatives more than any other party in the Westminster bubble have totally misread UKIP, what it stands for, and who supports it, and why.

    They have made the huge mistake of believing in their own spin. That UKIP supporters are simply disgruntled tories who will return to the tory fold if a couple of sweeties like a vague promise of a referendum some time this century, is on offer.

    It is n fact precisely this arrogant patronising attitude towards voters that drives the UKIP vote.

    More than anything else, the popular UKIP vote comes from people who simply want to see a giant stick rammed up the rear ends of ALL the mainstream parties, and believe Nigel is just the man to do it.

    Voting UKIP in Clacton, for a very good politician, who appears to have some integrity, and wont change the givernment to Labour,is a no risk option for most people.

    Voting UKIP in a general election, if you believe that the other parties are essentially a waste of space anyway, is a shot to nothing option as well.

    The rationale is this:

    IF you believe that national government is overweight, overpaid, and helpless to address the real and pressing concerns of the electorate who are hamstrung by Brussels, and then IF you believe that Cameron has as much intention of calling a referendum as he did last time he promised one, and less chance of acting on it, should it not go the way he wants, then it really doesn’t matter who you vote for unless it’s for UKIP.

    If UKIP can achiebeve balance of power, then there are three braid optins if no party has absolute majority.

    A UKIP-tory alliance, which many tories, though not Cameron, would favour.

    A minority Labour government totally hamstrung by the opposition.

    A Tory Labour coalition to keep out UKIP. Which would tear the conservatives in half. And be anathema to many Labour supporters.

    In short UKIP win by not winning, just by having enough seats so they cannot be ignored.

    That is the tactical objective, and its within possibility to achieve.

    Always remembering that what UKIP and its supporters want to achieve, is not actually winning elections and having fat salaries and ministerial cars, but actually changing British politics so much it will never be the same again.

    Obviously winning elections makes that simpler, but it is not the only way.

    We now have Islam, immigration and the EU membership under open debate. No longer brushed aside as racist, xenophobic or absurd.

    Thanks largely to UKIP.

    And an ongoing debate on what government and democracy actually means.

    The game of thrones that is politics is actually not a game UKIP cares about. The game of people and nations is far far more important.

    The myopic focus on election winning is what in the end will cause the demise of the mainstream parties.

    The only question is how fast it will happen.

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