In the run up to next year’s elections to the Scottish Parliament the Scotsman newspaper has begun commissioning regular monthly polls from ICM. These will be the first regular Scottish polls since the System Three polls for the Herald petered out in 2003.

51% of respondents told ICM they would favour Scottish independence, with 39% opposed. This is the first time that in 8 years that ICM have recorded a majority in favour of independence.

The full figures for voting intention in the Scottish Parliament are not in the online story, only the seat projections based upon them (I’ll update with the full figures once ICM publish them, or if someone pulls them out of the print copy for me). The Scotsman’s seat projections are for Labour to win 41 seats (down 9) on 30% of the constituency vote and 28% of the list vote, the SNP 37 seats (up 10) on 32% of the constituency vote and 28% of the list vote, the Liberal Democrats 25 seats (up 8 ), Conservatives 17 seats (down 1), the Greens on 5 seats and “others” 4. The SSP is on 4% in both votes and Tommy Sheridan’s Solidarity party is on 1%.

UPDATE: The full voting intention figures are as follows. In the constituency vote CON 14%, LAB 30%, LDEM 15%, SNP 32%, Green 3%, SSP 4%, Solidarity 1%, others 2%. In the regional vote the figures are CON 14%, LAB 28%, LDEM 17%, SNP 28%, Green 6%, SSP 4%, Solidarity 1%.


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