Survation have a new Scottish referendum poll in tomorrow’s Daily Mail. Topline figures are YES 42%(+5), NO 48%(-2), Don’t knows 11%(-2) (excluding don’t knows it is YES 47%, up 4). This is the first poll since the second Salmond-Darling debate, and on the face of it shows a significant movement to yes since before the debate.

Remember, however, that the previous Survation poll showed a sharp movement to NO. Putting that one aside, this poll is actually very similar to Survation’s longer term trend – their polls in June, July and at the start of August all had YES on 47%, before a sharp drop to 43% in their poll following the first debate. There are two ways you can interpret that – one is that Scottish opinion swung towards NO following the first debate that Darling was deemed to have “won”, and swung back following the second debate that Salmond “won”. The alternative explantion is that the previous Survation poll was just a bit of an outlier and nothing has really changed at all. Anyway, no doubt we will have some more post-debate polls along soon – tabs for the Survation poll are already up here, polls so far are here.


306 Responses to “Survation Scottish poll – YES 47, NO 53”

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  1. Thanks @spearmint,

    Must have come out this morning.

    Rich

  2. Also, I have to say it’s pretty rich for someone who faffed off to take a job in television halfway through his term to criticise the loyalty and integrity of other MPs.

    Although Parris is probably right that Carswell will quickly tire of being the only grown-up in Ukip, if he hasn’t already.

  3. Chris Hornet,

    I don’t know how much of a difference was made by the precise parliamentary procedures. It’s not like Labour was going to avoid a confidence vote if the SNP sat on their hands.

  4. @CHRISLANE1945

    – no he’s definitely the Berkshire Vicar – the advowsons in this area around Windsor had been since the 1530’s been particularly associated with royal patronage – they were often in the gift of the families of officials of the royal household – hence the high church joke & the references in the text refer to the English church and not the Irish Church where Test Acts etc were different….

  5. Starting to remind me of the American influenced Delcamp guitar forum.

  6. JOHN MURPHY.
    Many thanks for your information on the Vicar of Bray.

    RC until 1533.
    Henrician until 1547
    Edwardian Calvinism until 1553
    Counter reformation under Mary 1553-1558.
    Elizabethan 1558-1603.

    Not unlike Anthony W Benn’s political journeys.

  7. @Spearmint

    I think what happened to the SNP in 1979 is much the same as what has happened to the Lib Dems post 2010. In both cases they had tended to draw more of their support from people inclined to the left. And so that support was going to be vulnerable once they threw their lot in with those on the opposite side of the political spectrum. In the SNP’s case, it was their decision to align themselves with Thatcher to bring down Callaghan’s government that caused the political damage.

  8. @ Spearmint

    Thank you; I was expecting Ed M to make a statement, which is why I didn’t want to get into a back & forth with Rich. But I thought it wasn’t being released until Monday.

  9. SoCalLiberal

    Nice to see you back (or “your back” if you wore a backless dress to the pageant!).

    Thanks for the link. Nothing new, but quite a succinct summary,

    In return, you may be interested in a Yes supporter’s description of Jim Murphy’s meeting in Stonehaven.

    http://raymcrobbie.com/2014/08/27/return-of-the-britnats/

    He (and I) agree with you about the “wackos”.

  10. @Anthony Wells
    I must begin with an apology to yourself, for yet again over stepping the mark and breaking house rules of engagement. If you allow me to continue as a poster, I will try to do better. If you do not, it will be my loss.

    Two things make me extremely angry in a political sense.
    The first is criticism of the British armed forces and the second is child abuse. My lack of Pc and indeed rejection of it, make clashes with a high percentage of other posters likely. However, I realise this must be controlled if I hope to continue.

  11. @Oldnat – to be honest, having spent a lot of time on Wings Over Scotland in the last few months, I would suggest that contributors to that site are not necessarily particularly trustworthy to provide any kind of balance. That’s not a criticism, as obviously everyone is entitled to their opinion, but in general, the standard of comment on WoS is extremely poor, I find.

    Regarding ‘wackos’, it’s interesting to note that the various cases of extreme and violent behaviour directed at senior Yes and SNP people have been described by Salmond as clearly the work of unpleasant individuals, unconnected to the No campaign – he has said so publicly.

    There is a difference between many of the examples of intimidation I and others have been citing and those quoted by the Yes campaign in response, in that Yes recognises their examples as the work of independent individuals, while there is strong evidence for coordination and encouragement by official Yes campaign sources for some of the activities directed at No campaigners. This is a significant point. I’ve not come across examples of Westminster government ministers of officials writing to people threatening them with retribution if they come out and support Yes.

    It’s also worth pointing out that Jim Murphy has been quite open about the fact that many of his meetings have been fine, but in the last couple of weeks things have started to get very heated and threatening. The Stonehaven post was on the 17th, so appears to predate the developments JM describes.

  12. Roland

    In a sense it would also be a loss to other posters as I am sure most are interested to hear the views of everyone and really DON’T want all posts to be reflections of what they might say themselves.

    Your posts can be engaging and witty and, as a Tory MP said, very perceptively “perception is reality”.

    What, from all or us, any of us, can be really tiresome though is when we lack the ability to understand other points of view.

    For example I am partly with you when you rail against “political correctness” but I can also genuinely see the other side – what I call the slippery-slope-syndrome” [alliteration which beats anything old Alec S can conjure up] – and how it is so easy to slide down into something much, much worse..

    Best wishes,

    Your ole chum, Paul.

  13. Alec

    I wholly agree that some of the Yessers who post online as are as unbalanced as some of the Nay-Sayers who do the same.

    You clearly believe that ” there is strong evidence for coordination and encouragement by official Yes campaign sources for some of the activities directed at No campaigners”, but then your beliefs are hardly unbiased!

    Lots of people believe lots of things. Sometimes they are even true, though equally frequently they are the product of wishful thinking.

    People who paint one side as black and the other as white, are seldom good judges of reality..

  14. Scotland is split into Nationalists and Unionists.

    It was Unionists who sent and tweeted death threats to Scotland’s First Minister.
    There is a vile and sinister undercurrent running through Unionism in Scotland and its time for Cameron and Darling to speak out against them.

    But of course egg gate is a better narrative for the Unionist media.

  15. Some vocal (So called Cybernats) and an egg chucking Yes voter (who well might of been a Labour supporter for all we know) appears to be egging onto the extremity of World politics.

    Move aside Putin and the fascists in Ukraine…Scotland has Tommy aged 18 the egg thrower and Sandra an unemployed house wife aged 37 who sits up at night and posts Cyber Natish posts on the Scotsman,,,

    WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOW blow me away.

  16. @ Allan

    There is a vile and sinister undercurrent running through Unionism in Scotland and its time for Cameron and Darling to speak out against them.

    I may regret raising this, but would this be linked to the Orange Order in Northern Ireland?

    (sorry, I don’t know, just asking)

  17. CATMANJEFF

    “I may regret raising this, but would this be linked to the Orange Order in Northern Ireland?
    (sorry, I don’t know, just asking)”
    _________

    I wouldn’t go as far as blaming the Orange Lodge because I do know some people within the organisation and they are very decent people but I think it has to do more with immature brats supporting something they have not got a clue what’ its about and the desperation from some that independence might vanish a certain Glasgow football club from the face of the Earth.

    They (the club) are doing a grand job of that themselves. ;-)

  18. R&D (paul)
    I thought my only chum was Eric Pickles. But thank you for your kind comment, it is appreciated very much.

  19. I support Leeds, and back the 1980’s when the National Front recruited outside the ground, there were tales of links with that Glasgow Club.

    Not nice people.

  20. @Alex

    ” .. while there is strong evidence for coordination and encouragement by official Yes campaign sources for some of the activities directed at No campaigners. ”

    Would you care to cite this strong evidence?

  21. CATMAN JEFF & ALLAN CHRISTIE

    I had considerable experience with Loyalists in NI during the 70’s. The comment that some hard but very decent people exist in that community, is a great truth to old soldiers like me. The further comment, that potentially murderous little brats make the headlines with their behaviour, is very true. Ecosse must certainly keep a lid on that carry on.

  22. Allan Christie

    You are getting as bad as Alec!

    “Scotland is split into Nationalists and Unionists. ”

    No it isn’t! While people are focused on the referendum question at the moment, and that dimension of politics is currently dominant, most people wouldn’t choose either description for themselves.

    Neither you nor Jim Murphy (c/f Stonehaven visit) telling people that they are on or the other makes them that.

    Apart from anything else, among the “Nationalists” there are “Scottish Nationalists” and “British Nationalists” – the latter being also “Unionists”.

    We know from polling that around two thirds of Scots want to see a redefinition of the constitutional relations between Scotland and rUK. The referendum forces people to vote one way or another on the question being posed.

    People with virtually identical preferences on that constitutional status may vote different ways, according to their judgment on which outcome is more likely to see something like what they prefer being implemented.

  23. Important EU summit news.
    Federica Mogherini, the new EU FS, is probably a brunette. I looked it up. Donald Tusk, the new EU EC president, is probably follically untinted although of course follically challenged.

  24. CATMANJEFF
    I support Leeds, and back the 1980?s when the National Front recruited outside the ground, there were tales of links with that Glasgow Club.
    Not nice people
    _______

    I’m not at all surprised.

  25. Donald and he is a Pole? Does anyone know a Scotsman called Stanislav ?

  26. Howard

    Now that IS exciting news!

    On other matters, I read that Belgium has the highest proportion of its citizens fighting as jihadists. Do you know if that is correct, and if so has it affected Belgium’s assessment of the terrorist threat and consequent security level?

  27. OLDNAT

    I take your point but on the issue of voting on the referendum there are two choices ….Yes or No…If someone votes Yes I would contrive them as a nationalist even though they might had voted for devo max if that option was on the ballot and the same for No voters = Unionists and that they might also had voted devo max.

    I’m only using a generic term to for people voting on the referendum and that sinister stuff written towards the FM are from Unionists..I can’t really call them devo maxies.

    All of that said…You are of course right and I agree with your post.

  28. OLDNAT
    Allan Christie

    You are getting as bad as Alec!
    ________

    I missed that part…Blimey I must do better… ;-)

  29. HOWARD
    “Important EU summit news”
    _______

    What is it thus time…Russia banning fish imports from Luxembourg?

  30. New Panelbase poll.

    Yes 57% No 43%

  31. Hahahaha I’m just kidding – can you imagine?

  32. UKIP drop 5 in tonight’s Opinium poll for Observer
    CON 30+2
    LAB 36+4
    LD 7-3
    UKIP 16-5
    GRN 4-1

  33. Now for a real poll:

    UKIP drop 5 in tonight’s Opinium poll for Observer
    CON 30+2
    LAB 36+4
    LD 7-3
    UKIP 16-5
    GRN 4-1

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB

    (He’s not kidding)

  34. Probably a bit of reversion to the mean in that Opinium poll. Nonetheless, could the sight of a Conservative MP defecting to UKIP with talk of more to follow be scaring away 2010 Labour voters from the idea of switching to UKIP?

  35. A bit early to say Phil. 21% was a massive outlying result as far as UKIP are concerned, from any pollster.

  36. @SoCalLib

    Dude, welcome back! All we need now is the return of Eoin & Virgilio and it’ll be just like 2011…:-)

  37. Depends when the Opinium fieldwork was done (UKIP defection). Good for Smithson, got the thread better back on keel than I did with my EU news.

    OldNat
    I believe Belgium’s jihadists may be in an absolute majority over other countries, let alone proportional.

  38. “Would you care to cite this strong evidence?”

    Have done so already. There’s so much of it, I haven’t got enough time to repeat it.

  39. Just to point out that this is, in fact, a Scottish thread.

  40. Martyn
    I miss Rob Sheffield too.

  41. Howard

    Thanks. How does the Belgian Government’s reaction to that differ from the UK, for example?

  42. Alec
    I know, that’s what’s wrong with it.

  43. Martyn

    A good year 2011. :-)

  44. OldNat
    Same noises about not letting the potential martyrs back in. Of course if the latter in achievment, it’s academic.

  45. Howard

    I’m doing my best to make it a Belgian thread!

  46. Good Evening All; off the beach. Impressive Air Show here.

    I think the new poll is not accurate. Maybe there is a sampling error behind the poll.

    David Steel’s interview with Peter Hennessy indicated that if Jim Callaghan had gone for the October GE in 1978, and Labour had come out as the biggest party we would have had a five year Coalition Government.

    Things would have been different in the UK then, and the Scottish Nationalists could not have helped the Cons to bring down a centre left government.

  47. “Just to point out that this is, in fact, a Scottish thread.”

    Was that aimed at me?

    If so, UKIP has a Scottish representative in the EU parliament, and therefore my comment was entirely relevant to the thread.

  48. No

  49. Roland

    You’re welly welcome.

  50. Alec

    You could always just repeat that latest post, and save the tedium of typing more words. :-)

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