Survation have a new Scottish referendum poll in tomorrow’s Daily Mail. Topline figures are YES 42%(+5), NO 48%(-2), Don’t knows 11%(-2) (excluding don’t knows it is YES 47%, up 4). This is the first poll since the second Salmond-Darling debate, and on the face of it shows a significant movement to yes since before the debate.

Remember, however, that the previous Survation poll showed a sharp movement to NO. Putting that one aside, this poll is actually very similar to Survation’s longer term trend – their polls in June, July and at the start of August all had YES on 47%, before a sharp drop to 43% in their poll following the first debate. There are two ways you can interpret that – one is that Scottish opinion swung towards NO following the first debate that Darling was deemed to have “won”, and swung back following the second debate that Salmond “won”. The alternative explantion is that the previous Survation poll was just a bit of an outlier and nothing has really changed at all. Anyway, no doubt we will have some more post-debate polls along soon – tabs for the Survation poll are already up here, polls so far are here.


306 Responses to “Survation Scottish poll – YES 47, NO 53”

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  1. I wouldn’t place much faith in Populus . I’m on their panel . Their latest poll with a £1 reward to customers who completed it commenced with very loaded questions about Scottish food prices and supermarkets in Scotland post independence , then I was asked how I would vote in the referendum !

  2. Chasglas

    That sounds like private polling to test out possible campaigning lines, rather than an actual test of current opinion.

    Nothing wrong with that, of course. Campaigns do that on a regular basis.

  3. mister beedwax

    “carswell effect/crossbatty”

    Google the word “joke” or the two words “ironic humour”.

  4. Oldnat ,

    Indeed . Populus poll ad nauseam about independence but never publish results in their name .

    I’ve probably now been scrubbed from their panel . I’ll be £100 poorer this year !

  5. l Hamilton

    “most people”

    well, less than half anyway.

  6. A wild night on UKPR, I notice. I work different hours, so I only get to see the debris afterwards. I think Anthony Wells will be getting his scissors out.

    There is are 2 opinion polls out tomorrow – the regular Yougov and the fortnightly Opinium – there may be more for all I know

    With all the events this week, I have got no idea what the results will be, possibilities include

    Lab down markedly – Rotherham fall out voters blame Lab

    Cons down – immigration figures blamed on Cons.

    I think UKIP voting intentions will be up a lot, but then Populus on Friday had them down 2%

    The last 2 Yougov polls have also shown very large number of voters choosing outside the big 4 – 11% both times.

    On the main event of last week, I think Ed Miliband should speak out, I want to hear his views, it could be the making of him, I know he is thoughtful and takes time to assess the evidence – I like that, that is good, but supporters and opponents need to hear from him IMO

    As one of his opponents have said

    ‘the issue is not going away’

  7. Honestly feeling pretty disillusioned with both major interests of mine recently. First I get called a “pretty awful person” for saying that people should calm down and be rational over the Zoe Quinn story in the gaming world, and have looked at politics over the last few days and seen even more dirty tactics.

    I’m going to lurk and not post about either for a couple of weeks – might be back on the day of the Indy ref when things might be more sane.

  8. mr nameless

    oooooo you ARE awful…. but I like you.

    [Bit before your time but you should be falling over backwards now.]

    By the way, you can arrested for lurking.

    [If they spot you.]

  9. @ChasGlas

    “I wouldn’t place much faith in Populus . I’m on their panel . Their latest poll with a £1 reward to customers who completed it commenced with very loaded questions about Scottish food prices and supermarkets in Scotland post independence , then I was asked how I would vote in the referendum !”
    ______________

    I wouldn’t either. Do you remember this 2011 classic in push polling from Populus for Asda, using prior questions to draw attention to every conceivable argument against a Scottish supermarket tax, ending with a ” finally, do you think the Scottish Parliament should or should not vote to introduce this new tax on large shops and supermarkets in Scotland”?

    http://www.populus.co.uk/uploads/download_pdf-300111-Asda-SNP-Retail-Tax-Poll.pdf

  10. dao

    Though not a DC fan I don’t buy your theory at all and am pretty sure that security levels are not something any UK govt would bugger about with for short term political expediency.

    Seems more likely that this is done after serious advice and consideration.

  11. @Floatong Voter
    @Mr Nameless

    I understand where you are coming from.

    The naked, nasty partisanship of certain posters drives people off this site. I have noticed that many regulars have not posted much recently. I suspect they feel as you do.

    We can all drift into a partisan positions from time to time, but I never seen such vile accusations as have come from certain person. The normal back and forth of posters (such as Alec and Colin) shows that different views can rub along in a civilised way.

    I have seriously thought about deleting the UKPR tab off my browser, but I do not want be driven out of a place I like and have affection for by one person. They win in that scenario. It’s simple – I will ignore the presence of that person forthwith, and any comments they make.

    Please don’t leave. Stand up and be counted!

  12. As for Carswell, he’s a fool. It is also extremely high risk for UKIP, whose campaign in Clacton has got off to a poor start, as their existing PPC has been brushed aside unilaterally and won’t go quietly.

    More importantly, once a mid-election campaign poll (or polls) reveals who Carswell’s main opponent is, the very large number of people who loathe UKIP (and there are many more such people than those who are anyone but Lib/Lab/Con), will know who to vote for to stop UKIP. A bet on Con winning Clacton is worth a flutter at the odds currently being quoted. IMO, Carswell has committed political suicide; he’s pulled a pin on a hand grenade that will blow up in his face.

    UKIP’s bubble will also burst when they lose this by-election. Their best chance of winning a Westminster seat would have been to adopt a low profile (beneath the radar) local campaign in likely target seats at the GE well away from the glare of media attention.

    The SNP did it in 2011 for Holyrood, but unfortunately (for them), their attempt to do so for the IndyRef doesn’t seem to be working. Wee Eck’s haughtiness (like NF’s), together with the well-publicised fanaticism of some SNP supporters, seems to be undermining the YES campaign.

    I now expect both the SNP and UKIP to be busted flushes by the time of the GE. The SNP are likely to be as successful in the 2015 GE as they were in 1979 after the Scottish devolution vote failed to reach the target set. UKIP will sink with minimal trace into being a fringe party (like the BNP). The pre-GE debates (if there are any) should be between DC and EM alone – the only 2 contenders for being PM; it would be inappropriate to include the vicar of Bray (alias NC), yet alone NF.

  13. “@ChrisHornett – regardling the BNP, all that happened was the dangerous development of consolidation of the “r” parties. So former BNP and EDF voters now vote UKIP. ”

    While I make no judgement or inference on the accuracy of this comment, I find it amusing in a thread where there is such naked anti-English and on occasion anti-Scottish sentiment.

  14. @daodao

    I hold no brief for Carswell or Ukip but believe he will romp home in the by election helped by the incumbency factor, as he’s a good constituency MP.

    Clacton (and Frinton) must have one of the most favourable potential Ukip demographics in the country which explains why maverick MPs like Peter Bone in Wellingborough haven’t defected as he’d face a far harder fight to get re-elected.

    The fly in the ointment could be Ukip’s previous PPC, Roger Lord, who has made clear publicly his anger at being pushed aside. If he was to stand as an Independent Ukip candidate it could spell trouble which the Tories could exploit.

    That’s why Ukip should hold an Open Primary so that Carswell could get democratically selected and neutralise the legitimate protests of Mr Lord

  15. PS to my previous post:
    There is an interesting historical link between Carswell and the Vicar of Bray. The eponymous ballad was written to describe Dr Francis Carswell, who was Vicar of Bray (in Berkshire, not County Wicklow) for 42 years, dying in 1709.

  16. @Catmanjeff
    ” I have noticed that many regulars have not posted much recently”

    Sound advice from you in your 7.28 post. I have noticed how posts suddenly dry up for quite a while when troll/s are around.
    I usually log off for the rest of the day.

  17. @Ozwald -,that’s one reason why I don’t post much these days – plus I get lambasted for simply being a Tory – most posters on here appear to be of the left – having said all that it’s a great site and thanks to AW of course!

  18. @ Old Nat

    http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/08/the-sad-end-of-the-british-empire-110362.html#.VAF6NPldX1Y

    I think you will like this article. Others who oppose Independence will not like it.

  19. @ Catmanjeff,

    We might just have been on holiday- that’s where I’ve been.

    Anthony’s modding choices can be somewhat ineffable, but such is life on the internet. Moderation is an unenviable job and we definitely wouldn’t want to see what these threads look like without him! I just click the report link for the really egregious stuff and then shrug and move on.

  20. @ Daodao,

    The SNP were slaughtered in 1979 because they brought down a Labour government and let in Thatcher, not because they failed to secure devolution, which they failed to get explicitly because they couldn’t find enough people who cared about it. Unless something very unexpected happens in the next six months, Mr. Salmond will not have an opportunity to bring down a Labour government before the 2015 election, so I see no reason why the SNP should suffer the fate they did in 1979.

    If anything I suspect Couper2802 is broadly correct, if somewhat overstating the case, and the acrimony of the referendum campaign is artificially inflating SNP support among Scots who are not natural SNP supporters but who want independence, and that the effect may linger for several years regardless of the outcome. (Although it’s probably hardening the ABSNP vote as well.)

  21. SINE NOMINE

    Exactly so, it is also very boring reading endless pieces about why the Tories cannot win the next election.

  22. @The Other Howard

    That’s never stopped you positively stating the case for a blue win :-)

    There is room for all sorts of different views. It’s the tone which I think matters.

  23. Spearmint

    The nationalist were slaughtered because they let in Thatcher in 1979? Why then did their seats vote Tory? I think the Scots fell out with Thatcher some years after 1979.

  24. @Sine Nomine
    Good points. My political leanings are different from yours but it would be a very boring site without diverse views. There is no excuse for personal attacks though. We can learn from each other and we should be be wary of swallowing our own team’s propaganda whole. I hope you keep on posting.

  25. Can I just clarify before heading off that I’m not taking a break because of anyone on this site or any of this site’s content – it’s that the political news at the moment, specifically around the Indy Referendum, is extremely discouraging.

    One final thing before I go – I’ve been reading a book which contains a character named The Other Colin. I just thought what a right-wing individual that person must be ;)

  26. Is it only moi, but is Douglas Carswell the lopsided twin of Andrew Strauss?

  27. Cmj
    Don’t mention Tone or ChrisLane will need to have a l!e down.

  28. @L Hamilton – “This just about sums up the concoction of fabricated nonsence substituting for argument which you present..”

    Having independent, non party political people come forward in substantial numbers with hard evidence, strains the notion of fabrication, many might think.

    “The intimidation in Scottish politics (and it is real) comes from the NO campaign.”

    For which no evidence is provided.

    Given that currently political power in Scotland is wielded by a single party, in a system expressly designed on the assumption that single party government wouldn’t happen, and that as a result the level of checks and balances is weak, there are intuitive reasons to suspect that systemic factors may well permit (or even encourage) some level of abuse of power. These factors don’t pertain to the No campaign.

  29. CATMANJEFF

    Indeed and i continue to expect a “blue win” as you put it. However i think you would accept that the site is rather unbalanced at the moment, with a preponderance of left of center views, and has been for some time.

  30. @ Mr Nameless

    “the political news at the moment, specifically around the Indy Referendum, is extremely discouraging.”

    I don’t understand – are you hoping for a YES vote? That outcome seems unlikely to me. Peter Kellner has previously explained why those polling companies showing a closer race are likely to be wrong.

  31. I see that someone has put my previous post about the malign influence of the fanatical Saudi regime into moderation. Why does the West not realise that this regime and its accolytes are behind most of the troublesome Islamic fundamentalism in the world today?

  32. I do think we all need to be a bit firmer of spirit if we find people posting here with unpleasant of troll-like views.

    It’s not as if we are sitting with these people in our living rooms. Ignore and move on, and continue to post, within the rules (which we all breach sometimes!) but without fear or malice.

    There really is nothing these people can do to you, other than deny the rest of us your collective wisdom. Please don’t take that away from UKPR.

  33. The SNP were the only established Scottish party NOT to make gains in 1979.

    I don’t buy the “Letting the Tories In” explanation, since the Scottish Liberals voted in the same way and their vote increased in 1979. And since there was a big swing to the Tories in Scotland in 1979 (about 5.7%, above the national average, and from what was then an extremely low base for the Scottish Tories) there were presumably some SNP-Conservative switchers who weren’t displeased with the vote of no confidence in March.

    Basically the 1979 election in Scotland seems to be a classic case of two-party squeeze, with the Liberals making a very modest improvement with a popular Scottish leader. The SNP, who had been effective at winning votes from both left and right from 1966-1974, became effective at losing votes to both left and right in 1979.

    Even then, the SNP weren’t that far off their subsequent polling heights in 1979. In the popular vote, things only went really south for them in 1983, which was their worst post-Govan 1973 performance in a general election.

  34. @ Billy Bob

    “SoCalLiberal will be here by then
    to throw himself in front of any eggs.”

    It’s funny that you mentioned me today since I hadn’t been around in a while and thought to check in. Has Jim Murphy been egged? Makes the election I’ve been involved in sound pretty boring.

    I’m watching the video he put out on why he’s suspending his tour for 72 hours. For one thing, it’s clear he’s losing his voice. I think that he’d be smart to get some additional security detail given the increased hostilities by those campaigning against him. His tour has been effective. If it wasn’t, they wouldn’t be coming out and angrily heckling him. Or throwing eggs at him. But, he’s got to protect himself and he’s got to be careful. Also, he’s getting a little bit too riled up when he comes under attack. They say some nasty things about him and about people who oppose this referendum. But he’s the elected official, he’s got to be above it and can’t let it get to him. I’m reminded of what Henry Waxman does with angry hecklers, “well, yeah, talk to me afterwards…..maybe you’ll convince me.” The people who are coming after him look like total wackos. If anything, they’re doing more to convince undecided voters to go the other way. I mean, these are seriously like the the supporters of Allen West, Pete Stark, and licensed joyologist Marianne Williamson who really got into their respective candidates but often allow their own enthusiasm to be self-defeating.

    Before I go book my next flight to the UK to go organize his defense squad, I think it’s important to note that the egg was thrown at him from behind from a short distance. Not meant to hurt him so much as it was to ruin his shirt.

  35. I knew that, if we used the SoCalSignal, he would come, with cape and all, ready to come to our aide-

    “my next flight to the UK to go organize his defense squad”

    You’ll believe that a Californian Democrat can fly!

  36. I think the “False Flegg” conspiracy theory may be the intellectual low-point of the campaign…

  37. Galloway beaten up..

  38. @ Billy Bob

    “Anything is possible in the online world i suppose, but I’m pretty sure SoCal is no lady.”

    That is correct.

    Although last Sunday night, I and a State Senate candidate, did attend a Transgendered Beauty Pageant, Miss Queen USA 2014 (and he was really into it). First beauty pageant I’ve ever attended.

    You know, when your guy’s opponent is trying to start a whisper campaign that he’s this typical politician and a closeted conservative, nothing beats showing up at Miss Queen USA 2014. I call it mindf***ing with the opposition. I’ve done it a number of times in this race actually. :)

    @ Roger Mexico

    “Ditto”

    You know me too well! :)

  39. @floating voter,

    I found it very disappointing Miliband didn’t speak up last week, particularly as Rotherham is effectively a one party Council. My opinion of him, which had moved up, has gone back down somewhat. He should at least make a statement as the top guy in Labour. Maybe he was advised not to. All seems to be these advisors dictating these days (for all parties).

  40. “I don’t buy the “Letting the Tories In” explanation, since the Scottish Liberals voted in the same way and their vote increased in 1979.”

    I think the “Letting the Tories In” claims come primarily from the confidence vote. That the SNP did what they did on a point of principle is not in dispute, but equally there was little doubt that the outcome was going to be either the government they had no confidence in returning in a better position, or a government even more strongly opposed to devolution getting in.

  41. Pop in – catch up a little – pop out again.

    Not only me lying low so it seems.

  42. Chris Hornet,

    All that applies to the Liberals, and it did them no ill in 1979. In fact, it was the best election for the Scottish Liberals since the 1930s, measured in terms of vote-share.

  43. ROSIEANDDAISIE
    ‘mister beedwax
    “carswell effect/crossbatty”
    Google the word “joke” or the two words “ironic humour”.’

    I’d put a smiley face for your guidance but new Ukip guidelines have forbidden it as vulgar and unBritish.

    I’d ask you to Google the word ‘gullible’ but unfortunately it’s been taken out of the dictionary as being offensive to the credulous.

  44. @ Rich

    He should at least make a statement as the top guy in Labour. Maybe he was advised not to. All seems to be these advisors dictating these days (for all parties).
    ——————–
    It can be frustrating when Ed M won’t give a quick quote. That’s likely to be one of the many reasons that the msm (mainstream media) don’t like him.

    But I think Ed M sees himself as the leader of the Labour Party rather than seeing the Labour Party as being a prop for his personal views. I know that when there is an important vote or event, MPs are usually consulted & my MP takes soundings from members before Ed M speaks for the Party.

    I’m not giving this as a reason for Ed M not yet speaking about this particular issue (i.e. I don’t want you & I to get into a back & forth about it) but it’s been my experience of what has happened in the Labour Party regarding other issues.

  45. Wow. Matthew Parris (for whom I have little time, I’ll admit, on matters of fact ever since he claimed that there had been no important inventions since 1950, and mused about whether sea level rise was due to rivers carrying sediment to the ocean – God help us…- but whose opinion I listen to on matters of Tory party machination) is giving it both barrels in The Times today.

    Carswell is “…one of those characters who sometimes briefly thrives in the thin soil of Commons philosophising – a stupid person’s thinking person with a gift for making shallow oversimplification sound wondrously deep.”

    He says “I now see schism in the Conservative party as all but inevitable, whether in Govt or out after 2015…If a schism is coming, we moderates must draw our battle lines…we aren’t shifting.”

    It all sounds very Labour c.1980.

  46. @DAODAO

    I grew up in Maidenhead beside Bray – now vilage of gastronomy – the Fat duck and my favourite The Waterside….of course the vicar you mention was dead by the time the last verses of said ballad were composed :

    When George in pudding time came o’er
    And moderate men looked big, Sir.
    My principles I changed once more
    And so became a Whig, Sir……

    At junior school – never a reliable source for information – we were told there were several candidates for the model vicar but none of them were actually the Vicar of Bray

  47. Good Afternoon.
    JOHN MURPHY: I thought the Vicar of Bray was in Ireland.

  48. @ Jamie and Bill,

    Fair point. I stand corrected. I was going on received wisdom, but I’ve looked at the election results in those seats now and it’s absolutely clear you’re right.

    However, I think we can all agree that the SNP didn’t lose their seats because people were so disappointed they couldn’t get devolution through. In fact, they didn’t lose very many votes at all- for the most part they were just overtaken by the Tories and Labour in an election with higher turnout. Somehow I don’t think Scottish voters are going to find the Big Two such an alluring prospect in 2015.

    @ Rich and Amber:

    Miliband has made a statement.

    (Sorry to link to a party website, Anthony, but if you insist on auto-modding the newspapers…)

    @ Lefty,

    The key difference is, there were centrists in the Labour Party who were prepared to stick around and fight the extremists for the soul of the party. Where are the Tory Denis Healeys and John Smiths? Parris couldn’t even be arsed to stay in Parliament when his party wasn’t full of nutters. One lazy journalist is not going to be enough to hold the line against the Ukip tendency.

  49. “All that applies to the Liberals, and it did them no ill in 1979.”

    The SNP were the ones who forced the issue though. I know there has been a bit of rewriting of history since, under which Thatcher took the initiative, but she simply trumped their motion using her position as Leader of the Opposition.

    The Liberals were sitting pretty by early 1979: they stopped working with Labour arguing that an election should be called soon without going so far as to force the issue themselves. It wasn’t, and then the winter of discontent happened. At that point the Lib-Lab pact could be sold as a relative period of stability compared to large parts of the previous decade. Yes, they wanted devolution, but it wasn’t the be all or end all of their campaign.

    By contrast, the SNP had no option but to do exactly what they did, exactly when they did it, in response to a majority of those who voted choosing devolution and not getting it. Under those circumstances the major two parties were obviously going to put the majority of their Scottish time and effort into going after the SNP (and each other) rather than the Liberals.

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