Survation have a new Scottish referendum poll in tomorrow’s Daily Mail. Topline figures are YES 42%(+5), NO 48%(-2), Don’t knows 11%(-2) (excluding don’t knows it is YES 47%, up 4). This is the first poll since the second Salmond-Darling debate, and on the face of it shows a significant movement to yes since before the debate.

Remember, however, that the previous Survation poll showed a sharp movement to NO. Putting that one aside, this poll is actually very similar to Survation’s longer term trend – their polls in June, July and at the start of August all had YES on 47%, before a sharp drop to 43% in their poll following the first debate. There are two ways you can interpret that – one is that Scottish opinion swung towards NO following the first debate that Darling was deemed to have “won”, and swung back following the second debate that Salmond “won”. The alternative explantion is that the previous Survation poll was just a bit of an outlier and nothing has really changed at all. Anyway, no doubt we will have some more post-debate polls along soon – tabs for the Survation poll are already up here, polls so far are here.


306 Responses to “Survation Scottish poll – YES 47, NO 53”

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  1. ANN MILES
    Throwing eggs at people is cowardly,shouting people down is bullying.Cowards and bullies,is that how Scottish Nationalists wish to be seen.
    It is such an important choice that reasoned debate is imperative and I believe
    Most Scottish people realise this
    ________

    Yip here comes the milking of the situation. Would that be the same SNP supporters who chucked eggs at two jags in Wales and at Cameron during the 2010 election campaign in the south of England?

    BTW Cameron means Crooked Nose.

  2. Oldnat

    ‘And that is exactly what you are supposed to think!’

    Agree absolutely! But why are Yes supporters doing it when it (may/probably) plays into the hands of BT? The guy in the GB video looks middle aged – surely he should know better and that (at best) it’s not going to achieve anything?

    Anyway I just hope both sides can rein in their worst offenders so there can be proper reasoned discourse in the last few weeks.

  3. @JohnKay

    You know if you’re going to insult people as not having a sense of humour, you could at least have the courtesy to get the joke right :p

    (Incidentally Proudhon was an anarchist not a nihilist)

    @Amber Star & JohnKay

    For reference, for the joke:

    h ttp://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KgUemV4brDU

  4. Doesn’t it dawn on anyone that McShane might be settling a few scores after he was disowned by the Labour Party?

    That’s politics.

  5. Allan Christie,
    I have no interest in milking anything as you so charmingly put it.I seem to
    Remember that some ejit egged EM not long ago .This threatening behaviour
    Has nothing to do with sensible debate.

  6. Interested

    “But why are Yes supporters doing it when it (may/probably) plays into the hands of BT? The guy in the GB video looks middle aged – surely he should know better and that (at best) it’s not going to achieve anything? ”

    Oh, he might. Someone looking very like him seems to have been at more than one of Darling’s street events, and been caught on a number of mobile phone videos, so identification shouldn’t be far off.

  7. Intriguing!

  8. @ANN Miles
    I don’t think anyone threw an egg at EM, I think he was just eating an egg sandwich.

  9. There is a statement from J Murphy on the web. You will, if outwith Scotland, find it hard to believe the filmed incidents are in the UK.

  10. Why are they (and by they I mean everyone before I get jumped on) so angry? What kind of state is that to make a decision of this magnitude?

  11. Mr Nameless: if doing a John Prescott under those circumstances directly resulted in a non-trivial swing towards the other side of the argument, frankly I’d want to emigrate regardless of the result.

  12. R Haines
    Ann Cryer MP was speaking out in the clearest way on this issue a decade ago.

  13. Milton Fluid – very influential economist in the 1950’s, largely forgotten now. Proposed the theory of financial regulation as am economic cleansing mechanism.

  14. Just seen the video on the Scotsman website – it is a bit of disgrace really. Ignoring the idiot with the eggs I don’t really understand why the Yes campaigners are stood right in front of him. Surely it would be better to have a counter-demonstration and speeches 30m down the road rather than appearing to be intimidating. As an interested bystander there is no way I’d stick around there listening to what either side had to say. What a shame.

  15. R Haines
    I agree but neither did any other political party.

  16. ROLAND HAINES
    BARNEY
    “find it hard to believe the filmed incidents are in the UK.”
    With any luck in a couple of weeks they wont be
    ______

    Good come back good come back..

  17. I’m not for a second suggesting that the response was acceptable or that any more than a tiny fraction had any idea what it was originally about, but at least in the case of the 2011 riots it was triggered by a dubious death at the hands of the police. That’s very different to trying to suppress a peaceful political speech.

    When did the BNP start to collapse at the seams? When Nick Griffin got his moment in the sun on Question Time. Now I’m not comparing either side of the referendum debate to Griffin, but the point is that if you truly believe that your side of the argument is right, and you believe that you have the campaign team in place to get that message across, what have you got to fear from the other side getting a fair hearing?

  18. Alec,

    “Jim Murphy has not stopped the tour – it’s been suspended for 72 hours, to enable further advice on public safety and personal safety training for his staff.”

    Whatever else you can say about these sorts of tactics, they can work well.

    I remember hard-left Aye folks getting into a speech by Danny Alexander for free (because there were some spare seats) and then using the opportunity to heckle him, before (to their credit) voluntarily leaving on the grounds that they couldn’t stand to listen to the Naw case anymore.

  19. Alec,
    Yes.

  20. Sorry Alec,I realise that could be misconstrued,I meant that I agree.

  21. My luthier never engages with any world news or politics: he just makes wonderful instruments for some of the finest players in the world [and me] and keeps his head down.

    Wish I could follow his example. Most nights I do a whistle stop tour of the online BBC news and think WTF is going on?

    The entire world is stark, staring bonkers.

    And, in my view, it starts with the lack of ability to listen to another point of view with resort to shouting.

    The slippery slop syndrome is VERY slippery indeed and its funny that those most likely to be heard making weedy, sexist jokes are the first to condemn where such attitudes lead us – always providing there’s a single political party they can then blame for what has happened.

  22. @ChrisHornett – regardling the BNP, all that happened was the dangerous development of consolidation of the “r” parties. So former BNP and EDF voters now vote UKIP.

    Regarding egging etc – the targets should just laugh it off. Nothing annoys eggers more than that.

    We should take heart that none of the true violence seen in other independence movements has occurred.

    For example in the USA, they had a full blown Civil War over the right to unilaterally succeed or not.

    The Irish had a murderous civil war too.

    And in Quebec, a minister got killed in one of the nationalist episodes.

    In fact there has been more violence in Quebec inspired by the Scottish referendum, than in Scotland itself according to the following article (someone got killed in 2013 in Quebec over it).

    http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2013/02/06/questions-from-quebec/

    So take heart. It’ll all be over in three weeks time, so only a short while to keep your cool.

    And if the worst that has happened is some egging, that’s a big success in the context of the rest of the world.

  23. Meanwhile, back in the real world, STV are holding a “town hall” style debate on Tuesday with 3 spokespeople from each side.

    “Yes will be represented by deputy first minister and SNP depute leader Nicola Sturgeon MSP, Scottish Green Party co-convenor Patrick Harvie MSP, and actress and Scottish Independence Convention chair Elaine C Smith. The No team will comprise Labour shadow foreign secretary Douglas Alexander MP, Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson MSP, and Kezia Dugdale, Labour MSP and shadow education secretary in the Scottish Parliament.”

    http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/news/289943-stv-announces-line-up-for-live-referendum-town-hall-debate/

    Those furth of the STV and ITV Borders areas will be able to catch it on the STV Player (if it can deal with the traffic) or perhaps on sattelite TV.

  24. Old Nat,
    I feel that we are all singing from the same hymn sheet here.Of course attacks
    Of a physical nature against yes campaigners are entirely reprehensible.No one on this site would ever defend such behaviour.

  25. Ann Miles

    Attacks of this kind are also wholly reprehensible. The difference is that no one on my side is trying to claim that the racist involved represents the thinking of the NO campaign, or are demanding that Alastair Darling “reins him in”!

    http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/local/fife/i-was-so-stunned-yes-campaigner-says-she-was-racially-abused-in-kirkcaldy-1.536641

  26. @oldnat

    Well said.

  27. @ Candy

    So take heart. It’ll all be over in three weeks time, so only a short while to keep your cool.
    ————-
    Thank you :-)

  28. candy

    “full blown civil war”

    Yes, but that’s the point – it WAS civil. They didn’t heckle or throw eggs at each other.

  29. Old Nat,
    I know nothing about Alaistair Darling reining anyone in.Perhaps we should
    just leave it there.It is obvious that such behaviour is wrong.Now I am going
    back to the American Open,though I have to say it is deadly dull at the moment .

  30. it’s been suspended for 72 hours

    SoCalLiberal will be here by then

    to throw himself in front of any eggs.

  31. Billy Bob,
    Perhaps I am wrong,but I thought SoCal was a lady.

  32. I hate egg throwing, it’s cowardly and pathetic, no matter what politic group it’s at. It’s the same old attempting to close down debate without debating.

    I can in some ways understand anger though from the Yes campaign. William Walllace and Robert Bruce must be turning in their graves. Literally fighting their entire life for an independant Scotland, and all people need to do now is put a tick in a box, and they are not going to do it!

  33. Now I’ve stayed out of this for a couple of days but it’s getting on my nerves.

    I had nothing to do with Rotherham. I was three years old when this allegedly began and have no reason to be ashamed for anything. Those who should be ashamed are those directly involved who failed to take action (yes I’m including Labour councillors if that was the case for them) and those attempting to smear the innocent by the colour of their party rosette.

    There are myriad incidents I could bring up to “prove” Conservatives ought to be ashamed of themselves, but I won’t because I know most of them had nothing to do with it and that would be totally unfair.

  34. Paul A,
    Very sound advice from Catmanjeff.

  35. @Ann Miles

    Anything is possible in the online world i suppose, but I’m pretty sure SoCal is no lady.

  36. @Oldnat – “Alec
    Refresh my memory.
    When was it that you condemned the attack on a Yes campaigner…….”

    Quite a touchy response, I felt, but the answer is very simple – whenever I’m aware they happen, including on a couple of occasions on here – you must have missed it?

    I’ll also condemn Scottish ministers writing to university principles questioning why Professors in publicly funded institutions are appearing at BT events, when those concerned are acting in an entirely personal capacity, or official SNP tweets calling for boycotts of shops owned by a businessman who says something they don’t like, or the SNP warning the whiskey industry to steer clear of the No campaign etc etc.

  37. Alec

    As far as I am aware, the Scottish Government has had no contact with the Irish or American distilling industries on the topic of the referendum.

    However, if you choose to “condemn” only the activities of one of the Governments involved in this referendum (and on dubious grounds for that matter) then you are simply being partisan.

    That is a poor basis on which to make the kind of “moral” plea that you made earlier

    I was condemning a behaviour which is not uncommonly seen in politics – not attributing it to one side in one campaign.

  38. Billy Bob,
    I can only agree with your greater knowledge and experience in these matters!

  39. Rosieanddaisie

    “full blown civil war”

    Yes, but that’s the point – it WAS civil. They didn’t heckle or throw eggs at each other.

    Sometimes LOL really does mean laugh out loud.

    Billy Bob

    “it’s been suspended for 72 hours”

    SoCalLiberal will be here by then

    to throw himself in front of any eggs.

    Ditto

  40. I’m sure Salmond talked about a nuclear free Scotland in the second debate, but oddly enough, neither the White Paper on defence nor his personal letters to energy company bosses seem to hold to this line.

    It appears that the SNP line is that NATO nuclear vessels would be permitted in Scottish ports on a ‘don’t ask don’t tell’ basis, if NATO required this, and now AS has written to the boss of EDF saying that he would support life extensions of their two big nuclear power plants.

    While I think it’s pretty clear that parts of the No campaign have been stuck in a far too negative mindset, fixated on raising problems and fears, some of which verged on the ridiculous, it’s also increasingly clear that the Yes campaign is promising much that it can’t, or doesn’t want to, deliver.

    For quite some time now I’ve felt that were the Yes voters to win on the 18th, many of them might be sorely disappointed as the realities of the independence settlement emerge.

  41. @Oldnat – “However, if you choose to “condemn” only the activities of one of the Governments involved in this referendum (and on dubious grounds for that matter) …..”

    I think there is sufficient evidence now that there has been a coordinated approach by the SNP and the Scottish government to target business leaders, industry organisations and public and quasi public bodies, in order to dissuade them from voicing opinions helpful to the No campaign. In some cases this has been personal, and many of those involved have described this as intimidation. The Scottish government has not been involved in similar activities aimed at potential Yes supporters.

    In contrast, Westminster appears to have encouraged sympathetic organisations to speak out for the union, including foreign leaders on occasion. They aren’t responsible for most public spending in Scotland, and have limited authority in Scotland anyway, and possibly because of this there don’t seem to be the same number of confirmed cases of intimidation from Westminster.

    There is a clear pattern of activity here, and I’m sure at some point the fuller picture will emerge.

  42. Alec

    For quite some time now I’ve felt that were the No voters to win on the 18th, many of them might be sorely disappointed as the realities of continuing in the UK emerge.

    But since that’s one of the reasons why we are on different sides, repeating our suspicions about what might happen after the vote, is even more pointless than many discussions on this site! :-)

  43. RM

    Actually it made me smile also as I thunk and rote it.

    I often laugh at my own little jokes because I’ve never heard them before.

  44. Alec

    Your touching faith in the good offices of one Government and the perfidy of the other is duly noted.

    Those of us who have been around politics for many years are likely to be suspicious of all politicians and governments. :-)

    We have both noted on here that people see what they want to see, but you don’t have to provide the living proof of the observation.

  45. @ Rosie&Daisie

    I s’pose we had to agree on something sometime.
    ————–
    LOL!!! :-)

  46. I’ll take that as a “no” then.

  47. On referendum – “Jocks Vote” – night there will be an extended twenty four hour drunk hour on this very site.

    You have been warned.

  48. Yes Alec, stop providing the living proof please.

  49. CROSSBAT11

    ‘Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (-4), Con 35 (+3), LD 8 (=), UKIP 13 (-2), Oth 10 (+3).
    The Carswell effect??
    :-)’

    That would assume that 3% of people had heard of him – possible – likely even.

    Hated him so much that they avoided the Tories – a tad less likely.

    Were clairvoyant, given when the poll was conducted.

    but that’s your truth and I respect it.

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