Survation have a new Scottish referendum poll in tomorrow’s Daily Mail. Topline figures are YES 42%(+5), NO 48%(-2), Don’t knows 11%(-2) (excluding don’t knows it is YES 47%, up 4). This is the first poll since the second Salmond-Darling debate, and on the face of it shows a significant movement to yes since before the debate.

Remember, however, that the previous Survation poll showed a sharp movement to NO. Putting that one aside, this poll is actually very similar to Survation’s longer term trend – their polls in June, July and at the start of August all had YES on 47%, before a sharp drop to 43% in their poll following the first debate. There are two ways you can interpret that – one is that Scottish opinion swung towards NO following the first debate that Darling was deemed to have “won”, and swung back following the second debate that Salmond “won”. The alternative explantion is that the previous Survation poll was just a bit of an outlier and nothing has really changed at all. Anyway, no doubt we will have some more post-debate polls along soon – tabs for the Survation poll are already up here, polls so far are here.


306 Responses to “Survation Scottish poll – YES 47, NO 53”

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  1. Roll a Hard Six,

    “You can make your own mind up of course whether you agree with that view point or not.”

    Thanks!

  2. @Anarchists Unite

    ““Why are so many economist called Milton? Milton Schulman, Milton Keynes etc.”
    Maynard Keynes.”

    Which just goes to prove anarchists have no sense of humour. Which explains why they don’t laugh at this:

    Q: Why do anarchists insist on teabag tea?
    A: Because property tea is theft

    (OK, before I get hoist on my own pedant, I know it should be nihilists not anarchists, as the quote is from Proudhon, but people tend to look puzzled when you mention nihilists).

  3. Arghh, should be proper tea, not property tea…

  4. leaving politics aside can anyone explain to me why the undecided figure is 11% when the figure for Yes is 42% and No is 50% – surely that leaves 8% undecided therefore when the undecided are removed the figures should be Yes 45.6% No 54.3%?

    [It’s to do with me posting it at half past midnight when I should have been asleep – corrected – AW]

  5. Bill Patrick

    “I think there is some polling evidence that Scots are slightly more in favour of remaining in the EU than is the rest of the UK population.”

    Right, that’s the evidence I haven’t seen, and that people seem to have mislaid whenever I ask them.

    ICM asked in their latest poll:

    http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/2014_aug_scotlandpoll9.pdf#page=66

    In the event that Scotland does become independent, should it or should it not apply to be a member of the European Union? and it was agreed by 50% to 31%. Yes voters were keenest (59-27), but so were No ones (49-34). Only the DKs were close (35-32). In contrast all-GB polls tend to be evenly split at the moment.

    (And this is copied from a comment of mine a few threads back, so you obviously haven’t been following UKPR closely enough).

    It’s also worth pointing out that Scotland being pro-EU is something shown fairly consistently, both in specific polls like this, but also in regional cross-breaks (London is the other pro-EU Region of course).

  6. Very strange sample on that Populus survey. They appear to have oversampled the 2010 Conservative voters by 10% and 2010 Labour and Lib Dem by 2% each.

    Looking at the unweighted figures, the conservative vote has declined by 21% from 613 to 485 since 2010, the labour vote has increased 37% from 353 to 489, and the lib dem vote has declined by 69% from 358 to 110.

    Something seems to have gone wrong when weighting as they don’t seem to correspond to voting percentages in 2010 and the current VI reduction for conservatives does not correspond to the weighted reduction across the 2010 Vote. The current VI has been weighted down by 2% for conservatives, up by 3% for labour and by 12% for lib dems.

    Why this should be I don’t have a clue.

  7. The Populus breakdown is actually:

    Con 35%

    Lab 34%

    Lib Dem 8%

    SNP 4%

    PC *

    UKIP 13%

    Green 5%

    Tables are here:

    http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/OmOnline_Vote_29-08-2014_BPC.pdf

    The tables don’t look to be anything particularly odd for Populus so it’s probably just random.

    (Mind you if Anthony managed to provide the occasional Friday crossover, maybe he would be Lord Wells of Dartford by now).

  8. “Entrepreneurs, France needs you
    I love business.
    I know that the [political] left and the business world are customarily opposed; it’s an old tune. But I deeply believe that our country needs to shake off this position, these role-plays that we are so used to,
    It has made us lose too much time, and our country is dying because of these positions”

    French Prime Minister Manuel Valls.
    Wednesday

    Ooh la la !

    So the do have a word for it :-)

    Ed-are you watching this volte face ?

    lol

  9. @Gazprom

    I think the view earlier on in the year from the professionals on this site was that you took 2% off the final Con percentage to make it more accurate, so this one would be a 1% Lab lead and then think about MOE.

    My view is that Populus get a big tombola and pick out any numbers at random

    This is why I stick to Yougov for accuracy (before turnout at the moment) and ICM or MORI for results that might be realistic after turnout is included

  10. Guymonde – “My comment which started this debate off was about UKIP: in their thirst to pick up Lab voters will they espouse some leftish economic policies to replace the hard right ones seen in the unread bonkers manifesto of yore? I believe they are actually hard right to their boots but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they cooked up a left-sounding policy or two (back to renationalisation?) to pull in some votes from the old left.”

    You are right in your instinct that UKIP already has something in common with Front National.

    Here’s an example – it was Marine Le Pen who coined the shorthand “UMPS” to conflate UMP (the Gaulists) and S (the socialists). She did it well over a decade ago. Google “Marine le Pen l’UMPS” and you’ll get hundreds of thousands of results because she uses it in every speech and article.

    Now look at the way UKIP activists have been spamming the boards of all newspapers with “Lib/Lab/Con” since 2010.

    Either UKIPers speak fluent French, read the French papers and thought “what a good idea” – or someone in Front National mentioned to UKIP that that conflation handily defines the mainstream parties as “the other” or the enemy, and UKIP instructed it’s cyber-soldiers to put it into action.

    You can see why Le Pen was miffed that Farage wouldn’t acknowledge publicly that those two parties had something in common…

    They already both hate the EU and hate immigrants. Will they go further and copy Le Pen’s economic hard left policies – possibly.

  11. Some of the weighting on polls recently does appear to be designed to get the result nearer to the various pollsters’ gut feeling(s) and further from what the pundits actually say they will vote.

    By all means weight by sample, but can we really say how many 2010 LD-Lab or UKIP to Con switchers will switch back again in 2015? Surely it’s better to take their answers at face value, or what’s the point asking them?

  12. I understand that the Populus crossover figures are coming from Table 3 which is further weighted for turnout. However, I don’t get why in table 1, which doesn’t weight for turnout, they oversampled 2010 conservative voters by 10% and reduced this in the weighting for 2010 Vote but this did not lead to a corresponding 10% reduction in current VI when weighted.

  13. Roger Mexico,

    Thanks.

    The Populus poll has Labour roughly where I expect them to be in 2015, but it has the Tories well above. I think that there’s another shoal of Blue Kippers yet to migrate, who will secure things for Miliband.

  14. (Blue Kippers being the only fish that never gets wet.)

  15. If there is any “effect” behind this poll, it is certainly not Clacton Man buggering off to UKIP. It just might be the “Rotherham effect”, now made worse by the previous Labour MP ( dismissed for irregular financial conduct ),
    saying this; “I am afraid my liberal left views, made me not
    pursue the child abuse issue. Although I knew something was going on that should not be”.
    This gem was in Wednesdays Telegraph. I would have thought if they had misquoted McShane, we would have heard.
    It is coincidence that the MP for Maidenhead is the Home Sec. If a coterie of guardsmen from Windsor, (next door to Maidenhead), where found guilty of running an under age girl prostitution racket, what would Mrs May say. “As aTory, the honour of the Brigade of Guards is very important to me”, I knew it was going on, but did nothing. And if all that had been the case, would we be hearing rather more on the matter from posters on this site” ?

  16. Sorry, so bloody angry, I got the last lot of ” ” in the wrong place.

  17. @Gazprom –

    “However, I don’t get why in table 1, which doesn’t weight for turnout, they oversampled 2010 conservative voters by 10% and reduced this in the weighting for 2010 Vote but this did not lead to a corresponding 10% reduction in current VI when weighted.”

    Presumably it’s compensated for by other weightings? (Gender, age, etc)?

  18. @ ROGER MEXICO

    Thank you for your reply and explanation. That is the second time I have noticed a discrepancy in those figures and queried it with Anthony.
    Unfortunately he did not reply, perhaps it happened because he has been on holiday but it does not fill one with confidence that what is being presented is always correct.

  19. Table 2 of Populus doesn’t help to identify the weightings as they are post weighting but pre – turnout weighting. I can’t say I have any great confidence in the headline figures without knowing more about how they have been reached.

  20. Roger Mexico,

    You quoted ICM:

    “In the event that Scotland does become independent, should it or should it not apply to be a member of the European Union? and it was agreed by 50% to 31%.”

    but a better question would be

    “In the event that Scotland does become independent, should it or should it not apply to be a member of the European Union and then convert the currency to the euro?

    I think you would get a wholly different response. A recent poll (can someone remember which?) put support for the euro currency option at 6% or 11% if CU is ruled out. So you have to mix enthusiasm for the EU with distaste for the euro.

    It certainly is not a foregone conclusion that the result would be yes.

  21. JOHNKAY
    Please don’t nick my joke. In truth it is not a joke but was an actual exchange during Obama’s 1st presidential election.

    Q Do you believe Obama is a Keynesian? American lady from Joplin, Missouri, Ladies for Christ Mission, answered, well I knew his pa was from Africa someplace.

  22. Roland – you certainly would be hearing a lot more of it. Many people were saying the police were adopting double standards due to a fear of being called racist. Others roundly shouted them down claiming they were the racists, including many within Labour. Now the Labour MP comes out and says he knew something was wrong but did nothing, like so many others, due to ‘liberal left’ views. Utter cowards.

    We see this more widely in education in Birmingham, voting fraud across the country, sexual abuse, and at protests where the police turn a blind eye to things like anti-semitism. Plus homophobia and sexism abuse and street crime. The police and authorities ignoring, or covering up, various issues due to fears of racism accusations. It’s damaging aspects of that culture, and a fear of pushing integration and modern western values, that leads to segregation, extreme views & many going to fight for ISIL and many more supporting them in the UK. And people who brought this up have been derided for years with awful results.

  23. “The English won’t let us borrow to spend on the NHS!”

    Too right. Go make Germany’s currency worthless instead.

    Who says anarchists don’t have a sense of humour?

  24. Hal,

    It’s by no means clear that adopting the Euro would be a matter of choice if Scotland were to join the EU. The ability to join the EU and not adopt the Euro is, at best, a de facto capacity, and not everyone in Europe is happy about what Sweden managed to do. IIRC, the Finns (who were told they had to join the Euro) weren’t overjoyed at the Swedes being able to ignore their Treaty obligations without punishment.

  25. Chris Hornet,

    There is only one way for Scotland to have full fiscal independence, and that is to form a currency union with the rUK, and agree to borrowing & spending limits.

  26. Jim Murphy (not the favourite of some on here I know) has suspended his Irn Bru-box tour pending police advice on public safety.

    Genuinely not being disingenuous when I ask have any Yes politicians had to do the same?

  27. @Roger Mexico

    “The tables don’t look to be anything particularly odd for Populus so it’s probably just random.”

    Even for Populus, the recall of 2010 weighted VIs look unusually extreme and thus “particularly odd”. 560 Con, 347 Lab, 352 LD is consistent with a 2010 GB vote share of 40.1% Con, 24.9% Lab, 25.2% LD. That’s turned an actual Con lead of 7% into one of 15%, the biggest discrepancy that I can recall.

  28. Bill P,

    I am sure there is no choice at all. The EU is determined not to allow any new entrants to avoid the euro as Sweden did. Therefore joining the EU will require also a commitment and timetable to adopt the euro.

    My question is what the answer to a referendum on those terms would be. I’m not at all sure Scotland would vote to join the EU under those conditions.

  29. ED
    Well at least someone shares my outrage at what is the tip of an iceberg. I am not about to become a kipper, but when Clacton man says “Tony Blair might as well still be PM”, its difficult to argue.

  30. “Chris Hornet,

    There is only one way for Scotland to have full fiscal independence, and that is to form a currency union with the rUK, and agree to borrowing & spending limits.”

    With my pedantic hat on what you describe is not full fiscal independence. The only way to have “full” fiscal independence is to have your own unpegged currency. What you describe would undeniably be a better thing for Scotland though, regardless of views on whether that should happen in or out of a political union.

    Returning to normal discussion, given how pedantic both campaigns have ended up being on the currency I’m surprised that the above line of argument hasn’t been noticeably deployed.

  31. Chris H,

    Indeed, your pedantic hat is correct.

    An independent currency solves the financial problem for the state, and hence public sector employment (assuming tax receipts are sufficient). However for individuals/businesses with debts in sterling, being paid in a new floating currency could be a disaster.

    On the other hand a CU with the UK might be great for individuals and businesses – carry on as before, but a disaster for the state. It would lead to forced austerity in a recession with a huge squeeze on the public sector (and hence employment generally) – exactly what happened/ is happening in Portugal, say.

    There isn’t a way to keep both sectors happy.

    The euro has the worst of both worlds: it constrains the budget of the state (same as CU with the UK) AND also exposes the private sector with debts in sterling to the risk of being paid in euros. Ughh.

  32. Mr Nameless
    On your question of violence in achieving change. The BT people are in favour of preserving the status quo. It is always those in favour of change, throughout history, who eventually have to resort to ‘armed struggle’ and similar. They don’t necessarily have to be in the minority (think Russian revolution) and it does not have to be all of them, or indeed perhaps only a few, who resort to it. We shall only know how many are prepared for ‘direct action’ if the referendum result is a ‘no’.

    Perhaps none. Throwing a few bad eggs is not in that category.

  33. Jim Murphy has been abusing as many people as have been abusing him.
    I still can’t believe someone who’d probably think themselves at the top of the Scottish Labour party has been so ineffective in campaigning on independence. This really is just the latest problem with his ‘campaign’; it was this view point that gave the SNP Holyrood on a plate (running away); hes giving up over an egg and trying to claim Yes are intimidating the Don’t Know voters – except there not, so who on earth is Jim Murphy looking to campaign to? Whose been his target audience?

    How many politicians have been egged? How many political parties or campaigns have had online arguments?

    All we see is him screaming at people that he won’t be silenced then…silencing himself. Shambles.
    He must surely have seen this behaviour in every election theres been? He must surely know how to handle it?

  34. fraser we live in a democracy,whats the problem with rational debate? why the need to throw eggs?

  35. Yes I want our democracy to consist of calm people rationally putting forward points then giving their opponents chance to calmly and rationally respond. Idealistic I know.

  36. FRASER

    Yes, Jim Murphy strikes me as just the sort of timid weakling who would suspend his campaign in the face of a few eggs being thrown.

    He is, after all, a native of that notorious city of softies – Glasgow, renowned throughout the world for its nervous nellies who run away from a fight at the slightest excuse!

  37. Fine points Paul and Mr Nameless.

    But if all else fails, I want a democracy in which idiots don’t achieve what they set out to achieve. Are the people who threw the eggs, and those of a similar mindset, going to be deterred from doing the same again by Murphy ceasing campaigning or Farage having to leave the streets? Of course not.

    You can say what you want about how John Prescott handled a similar incident all those years ago, but in the years that followed that sort of thing decreased.

  38. The problem for Jim Murphy is that he can’t do what I’m sure he’d be very tempted to do and follow in John Prescott’s footsteps.

    A) there’s not just one mullety protester, there are dozens and “Labour MP Starts Street Brawl” and “Labour MP Hospitalised/Arrested After Punching Protester” don’t make great headlines.

    B) Unlike Prescott’s incident which gave a bit of colour to a dull campaign, Murphy hitting someone would be seized upon as evidence of BT’s terrible nature and I’m sure he wouldn’t want that.

    You’re not wrong though – egging politicians achieves zero result and sometimes a negative result. It’s best for the politicians to stand up to that kind of intimidation and laugh it off, despite the great effort required to keep cool. I wrote an article calling for calm on a similarly controversial issue in the games industry a few days ago and was given a heck of a hard time about it – can’t imagine what it must feel like to get far worse on an issue which really matters.

  39. I haven’t seen any videos on what has happened in Jim Murphys case but the fact that he is taking police advice seems pretty serious!

    I saw the video of the heckler at GB – I’m really not sure what point he was trying make or even what he was saying really. Like mrnameless says these incidents achieve nothing and I can only think they put undecideds off and possibly even turns them towards BT/No.

  40. @ Phil,

    Even for Populus, the recall of 2010 weighted VIs look unusually extreme and thus “particularly odd”

    They probably figured the Tories wanted cheering up after yesterday.

  41. Couper

    ‘Prediction Panelbase at the weekend will show Yes even or ahead. I will shut up if I am wrong but I won’t be. Then you will have to believe me when I say Labour are doomed in Scotland. I’m still a member but in Labour for Independence.’

    I made this point earlier but based on Quebec’s polling prior to the ’95 referendum Yes need to start getting a lead in some of the polls about now to have any chance of winning.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_referendum,_1995#Opinion_polling

  42. Candy – UKIP will say anything to anybody to get votes – they jumped the shark some time ago.

  43. An MP I used to campaign for was subject to an attack by eggs and flour during a GE campaign.

    He turned into a joke by the talking about it, saying that all he needed was some milk and he could make a pancake.

    Humour is the best response I think.

    Is this something JIm has plenty of?

  44. I reckon the UK terror alert will heighten the closer we get to Septembers Referendum.

    Events dear boy events!!

  45. fraser

    What a silly post.

  46. INTERESTED
    I haven’t seen any videos on what has happened in Jim Murphys case but the fact that he is taking police advice seems pretty serious!
    ______

    I have seen part of the clip but had to turn it off. Far too much shouting and mega phone shouting from Jim. He looked as stupid as the ex Labour supporters heckling him.

    It’s wrong to waste food by chucking it at MP’S but lets put this into perspective….An egg chucking incident and a few hecklers surely isn’t the pivotal moment for the entire independence campaign.

    I know there are people who will milk and milk this until the coos teets are raw but egg chucking aint a unique event in UK politics.

  47. INTERESTED

    “I haven’t seen any videos on what has happened in Jim Murphys case but the fact that he is taking police advice seems pretty serious!”

    And that is exactly what you are supposed to think!

    Have a look at the Herald report.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/cameron-throwing-things-at-politicians-cant-be-part-of-democracy.1409313981

    Cynics might think that Jim was really annoyed that he had to spend 78 days standing on street corners with his PA equipment before someone did something he could use to demonise the opposition.

  48. Throwing eggs at people is cowardly,shouting people down is bullying.Cowards and bullies,is that how Scottish Nationalists wish to be seen.
    It is such an important choice that reasoned debate is imperative and I believe
    Most Scottish people realise this.

  49. There definitely is a Milton Keynes, I think.
    ————-
    Maybe I’m the only person not in on the joke but… Milton Keynes is a town, Milton Friedman & John Maynard Keynes are economists.

  50. OLDNAT

    “Cynics might think that Jim was really annoyed that he had to spend 78 days standing on street corners with his PA equipment before someone did something he could use to demonise the opposition”
    __________

    Does make you think right enough.

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