Survation have a new Scottish referendum poll in tomorrow’s Daily Mail. Topline figures are YES 42%(+5), NO 48%(-2), Don’t knows 11%(-2) (excluding don’t knows it is YES 47%, up 4). This is the first poll since the second Salmond-Darling debate, and on the face of it shows a significant movement to yes since before the debate.

Remember, however, that the previous Survation poll showed a sharp movement to NO. Putting that one aside, this poll is actually very similar to Survation’s longer term trend – their polls in June, July and at the start of August all had YES on 47%, before a sharp drop to 43% in their poll following the first debate. There are two ways you can interpret that – one is that Scottish opinion swung towards NO following the first debate that Darling was deemed to have “won”, and swung back following the second debate that Salmond “won”. The alternative explantion is that the previous Survation poll was just a bit of an outlier and nothing has really changed at all. Anyway, no doubt we will have some more post-debate polls along soon – tabs for the Survation poll are already up here, polls so far are here.


306 Responses to “Survation Scottish poll – YES 47, NO 53”

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  1. @Chrishornet

    Labour are fighting for their survival a Yes vote would see them implode. Too many MPs not enough seats. You can understand D Alexander and Murphy’s horror that their cabinet positions are slipping away. So Labour are totally desperate to get a No vote.

    For conservatives there is an upside 50+ fewer Labour MPs. Cameron could argue Scots MPs should be counted towards a government majority in 15. So Cons chances increase. Even with a No Labour are damaged in Scotland plus lists of hostages to fortune have been given during the campaign I.e Labour defence of Cons on NHS

  2. ChrisHornet,

    It would be about a 1:3 split in favour of the latter – but most Greens I know are the student protester left-wing sort. That’s the crazy thing, most of them aren’t even small-g greens.

  3. If there is a ‘No’…

    Then the respective prospects for the SNP and Labour at Holyrood may be influenced considerably by the result of the 2015 General Election. Remember the 2010 General Election had a massive impact on the 2011 Holyrood Election – post coalition agreement the collapse on mass of the Lib Dem vote, largely going over to the SNP in 2011, hence the SNP overall majority at Holyrood and hence the referendum.

    So thinking about 2016 I think needs to be done in light of the various 2015 scenarios. Will Labour be stronger in Scotland in 2016 if they win in GE 2015? How will another coalition or Con minority affect things?

  4. “Somebody suggested there’s a vacancy for an economically left, socially conservative party.”

    There probably is. Indeed, I’m tempted (perhaps by prejudice or ignorance) to say that this hypothetical is the natural party of government in an ageing society: a party opposed to dynamic change in all its forms, whether as a result of a revolutionary economic system or mass immigration. The driving instincts behind the Miners’ Strike and UKIP aren’t so different, I think. And there was always a philosophical uneasiness between Thatcher’s social conservativism and her economic liberalism, just as there was between Michael Foot’s social libertarianism and his economic centralising socialism.

    On the other hand, economically left/socially conservative and economically right/socially liberal parties are rare in the modern era, and I don’t think that political scientists know why. For example, it’s been suggested that social conservatives and social liberals have differences at the cognitive level in terms of aversion to change, distrust of strangers etc., but that doesn’t explain why parties form the coalitions they do on economic issues.

    My suspicion is that the explanation is local and historic. You find socially liberal/economically right-wing parties in the Baltic states, since opposition to socialism is such a part of their sense of nationhood. The heyday of One Nation Conservativism in the UK was the 1950s, when there was a deep sense of wanting to settle down and be cozy in the economic sphere (as well as a sense of “Never Again” after the Great Depression, and a very widespread attribution of that depression to laissez-faire capitalism) and so a socially conservative/economically left (comparatively) Tory party managed to do astoundingly well. And you find a lot of unionists in Ulster who are very hardline social conservatives but also have very left-wing views on nationalisation, financial regulation, free public services etc.

  5. The worry for Labour in Scotland has to be that the collapse of the LDs gave them a golden opportunity, and they weren’t able to take it. After May 2010, Labour presumably got their best chance in a generation to secure the kind of domination of Scottish politics that they enjoyed from 1987 to 2005, and they weren’t able to take advantage of it.

    Even for Westminster and even with a solid Naw vote, they are very unlikely to do as well as they did in 2010, which was a very, very good performance by Labour in Scotland. (About as good as they’ve done since 1970.) Meanwhile, both the SNP and the Tories look like doing between in Scotland in 2015. One problem for Scottish Labour is that they face the problems of being a triangulating party when times are tough; it’s a strategy that works very well when times are good, but hard times call for hard choices and that is easier if you have a hardline base. Labour can go harder to the left, but at the risk of alienating their centre/centre-right supporters who were won over by New Labour; they can try to keep those supporters, but in doing so they risk losing more ground to the SNP.

    No wonder it’s so hard to stay as Scottish Labour leader for more than a few years!

  6. I believe it was me who was banging on about an economically left, socially right party. It’s such a rare thing there’s not even a term for it really – I came up with paleosocialism but it’s unwieldy.

    If there’s a party which might be set to go in that direction it might be the Labour Party. Certainly if it could regain its strength with the white working class it would be a very potent electoral force. But it would also alienate liberals, so there would be a trade off. I’d probably remain a member with some discomfort.

    The Tory Party is trending in an ever more economically Libertarian direction while its MPs and activists still largely harbour social conservative tendencies as well. It’s unlikely to go back to One Nation Toryism.

    The Lib Dems? Nope. UKIP can’t because of its powerful anti-state wing. Neither can the Greens given that much of their appeal is built on hyperliberalism and identity politics.

    I have an alternate theory which is of two great, currently disunited voting blocs in this country – the Social Democrats (most of Labour sans Blairites, the SLF, Greens, SNP, PC) and the National Liberals (Tories, Orange Bookers, UKIPers). Both contain about 45% of the electorate with about 10% left over for hardcore Liberals, Deep Greens, and the far left and far right.

    They’d be broad alliances but would be electorally successful. Problem is that reducing the UK to a two-party state like the USA would be a very bad thing.

  7. Populus

    Lab 38 (-1)
    Con 32 (-1)
    LD 8 (-1)
    UKIP 15 (+4)

    Tables: http://popu.lu/s_vi140826

  8. Mr Nameless,

    The Communist Party of the Soviet Union was very rigorously both socially conservative and economically (hard) left-wing. As far as I know, all the Eastern Bloc countries didn’t legalise homosexuality until after the fall of the Berlin Wall. Perhaps that’s yet another reason why socially liberal market-orientated parties do so well in the Baltic States! Post-communist politicians were forever reading “I Want to be Free” by Milton Schulman. (Why are so many economist called Milton? Milton Schulman, Milton Keynes etc.)

    The American parties are crazy coalitions, really. You get socially liberal, economically left-wing upper-middle class Jews in New York in a party with socially conservative economically left-wing African Americans in Philadelphia and socially liberal economically right-wing technological entrepreneurs in Los Angeles and socially conservative economically right-wing Blue Dogs in North Dakota and the only name vague enough to bind them must be something like “The Democratic Party”.

    You get socially liberal, economically right-wing WASP bankers in New York in a party with socially conservative, economically right-wing corporate farmers in Texas and socially conservative, economically left-wing tradesmen in Alabahma and socially liberal, economically left-wing soldiers from Idaho and what do you call it? “The Republican Party”, even though no-one is proposing that the US becomes a monarchy!

    It makes me glad for our party system, for all its imperfections.

  9. Bramley – that’s Monday’s one

  10. @Couper2802
    “For conservatives there is an upside 50+ fewer Labour MPs. Cameron could argue Scots MPs should be counted towards a government majority in 15. So Cons chances increase.”
    ___________

    Yes but are you really relishing that? It seems very clear that in the event of a “Yes” vote the SNP will be dealing after 2015 with either a UK Conservative government or a coalition or minority one led by the Conservatives (possibly with a UKIP tail wagging it). Have fun with that in all the negotiations that follow.

    I’m not sure what is the more realistic prospect – border controls and cross border trade restraints while Scotland seeks to persuade every EU country to let it rejoin an EU containing the UK, or border controls and cross border trade restraints with Scotland in the EU and the UK outside. Possibly the former in the short to medium term, and the latter in the medium to long term. Certainly without Scotland the long term prospect of UK withdrawal from the EU is more likely.

  11. @ Bill Patrick

    (Why are so many economist called Milton? Milton Schulman, Milton Keynes etc.)

    Love it! I suppose you could call anti-monetarist Oxbridge economists MK Dons.

  12. couper2802

    ….SNP have a database of every Yes voter in this constituency and we are probably at over 50% Yes simple matter to get them to vote SNP in May. It will be the same across Scotland…..

    Apart from the many discussions on UKPR that have pointed out how unreliable this sort of party held information is, isn’t it also just a teensy bit arrogant to then assume that its a ‘simple matter’ to get them to vote SNP across Scotland?

  13. @Balbs

    Everyone tells me these databases are inaccurate. Yet campaigns and parties still canvass. My own experience is when done properly canvass returns are very accurate at identifying your vote and getting them out.

    As for arrogance No I think the SNP will have a fairly easy task getting the Yessers to vote SNP a far easier task than Labour will have getting Yessers to vote Labour.

  14. Kripes! this looks a bit close, still the likes of me have no say in the matter.
    Away from Scotland, my plea a few days ago for the “right” to get their act together, seems to be happening in a very unusual way. Clacton man could be followed by 8 other Tory MP’s. Its looking more like a takeover than a merger.
    Rather like the 20’s and the metamorphosis of the Liberal party into Labour as the main party of opposition.
    Cameron might find at this rate, he is not even the main party of opposition.

  15. @Phil Haines

    Really sums up Scotland’s problem being ruled by right wing Govts or very right wing governments if the Tories are in. That is why we are voting Yes. So of course we will have one last negotiation with WM then we are free.

    On the EU there will be a smooth transition, even Project Fear have dropped that scare story. The danger is the rUK opting out but we will cross that bridge if we come to it.

  16. ROLL & HARD

    “Lib Dem vote, largely going over to the SNP in 2011, hence the SNP overall majority at Holyrood and hence the referendum”
    ______

    That’s not quite accurate…just as much Lib/Dems defected to Labour as they did to the SNP. It was more noticeable for the SNP because they took all of the Libs mainland seats from them but in West Central Scotland the collapse of the Labour vote towards the SNP was compensated due to Lib/Dems shunting over to Labour.

    That explains why in many seats Labour lost to the SNP their share either stayed the same or went up.

  17. John Kay,

    I merely follow in the footsteps of the writers of “Yes, Minster”, which is the best product of bipartisan political co-operation that I know…

  18. Roland Haines,

    “Cameron might find at this rate, he is not even the main party of opposition.”

    Extremely unlikely, given that UKIP have a very low upper-ceiling.

    Phil Haines,

    “Certainly without Scotland the long term prospect of UK withdrawal from the EU is more likely.”

    The certainty of the above claim depends on how it’s interpreted. A referendum on EU membership is more likely if Scotland leaves the UK, but I keep on asking people for actual hard evidence for the claim that Scottish people are more pro-EU than the rest of the UK, without success. (And no, simply voting for a party that is pro-EU doesn’t count. UKIP are notably pro-animal rights; that doesn’t mean that the rise in their support indicates a shift of attitudes towards animal rights!)

  19. BILL PATRICK

    I think if Scottish Labour stuck to their core values and stick to what the party really stands for rather than go down the road on some vanity project for middle England voters then the party north of the border might stand a better chance at Holyrood and raise its profile amongst voters.

    It also might slow down the leadership revolving door but I do understand all of this wouldn’t suit Ed’s chances of becoming minster.

    Maybe voting for independence and reclaim your Labour party might resonate with some voters.

  20. We have crossover:

    Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (-4), Con 35 (+3), LD 8 (=), UKIP 13 (-2), Oth 10 (+3).

  21. ROLAND HAINES

    ” Clacton man could be followed by 8 other Tory MP’s. Its looking more like a takeover than a merger”
    _____

    The Tories have been plagued by some sort of sleeping Zombie Parasite for years and it’s now awakening.

  22. Mr Nameless – “I believe it was me who was banging on about an economically left, socially right party. It’s such a rare thing there’s not even a term for it really – I came up with paleosocialism but it’s unwieldy.
    If there’s a party which might be set to go in that direction it might be the Labour Party. ”

    There is already a name for it – Front National as led by Marine Le Pen.

    And there is no way the Labour party will go in that direction.

    Labour is actually a coalition between the middle classes (who vote like clockwork) and the working classes (who only vote occasionally).

    Labour’s representation in Parliament didn’t collapse in 2010 largely because it’s middle class vote held firm (it was working class voters who stayed at home or flirted with Tories and UKIP).

    Those middle-class Labourites are all home-owners, lots work in the private sector – they are liberal/centrist both socially and economically. They vote Labour because they think a bit of a welfare safety net keeps society stable and prevents riots and unrest and all those bad things that would interfere with their lives, and they’re prepared to pay the tax to finance that (which is what differentiates them from Conservatives).

    They’d simply desert in droves if Labour became economically hard left and socially hard right.

    Labour would never win in England again, because those working class voters who might be tempted by a Front National style party would be over-whelmed by a determined middle class who would unite and turn out en masse for whoever would stop them.

    So Labour will stay where it is – in the muddling middle.

  23. @Anthony

    Can you explain why once more the weighting data given in today’s You Gov poll does not correspond to the figures used in the tables?

  24. @Couper2802

    Pull the other one.

    @Bill

    I was referring to the likelihood of a referendum/constitutional decision rather than public opinion. Nonetheless I think there is some polling evidence that Scots are slightly more in favour of remaining in the EU than is the rest of the UK population. That probably reflects the SNP’s long standing position having shaped attitudes to the EU in Scotland, EU membership having being seen as helping the UK secessionist case, at least until recently when the condition of Euro usage became a stumbling block. That might of course change with a “Yes” vote, as in the absence of being able to blame the English for every conceivable ill the nationalist camp would have to search for an new scapegoat.

  25. Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (-4), Con 35 (+3), LD 8 (=), UKIP 13 (-2), Oth 10 (+3).

    The Carswell effect??

    :-)

  26. @AW

    Oops, indeed it was. Lesson to self – be more vigilant when glancing at Populus twitter feeds….

  27. Toonie

    @Anthony

    Can you explain why once more the weighting data given in today’s You Gov poll does not correspond to the figures used in the tables?

    Because someone copied the weighting tables from 8 days ago:

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/gvdufgez3p/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-210814.pdf#page=3

    and didn’t update them

  28. Allan Christie

    You make a fair point about Lib Dem voters going to Lab as well as SNP in 2011.

    As ever, I was going by my overall impression at the time, that the Lib Dem fall broadly matched the SNP rise, but I appreciate these things are more multi-dimensional in reality.

  29. why do we always have this…? we always have people taking one poll and looking at all kinds of reasons to explain it…it’s almost as though people on this site know nothing about margin of error, sample variation and so forth, even though we bang on about this all the time.

    there will be no Carswell effect discernible until at least the end of next week, if such a thing exists.

  30. Apologies 7 days ago not 8 (I got confused by data set names). Hence why they copied across a similar template. It happens surprisingly often, I’m quite impressed that Toonie spotted it – it’s usually only picked up when there is big discrepancy in sample size or the weighting is different eg one of them is a Scottish poll.

  31. Peter Crawford

    I suspect CB11 had his tongue firmly in his cheek as he posted that.

  32. Bill Patrick

    “Somebody suggested there’s a vacancy for an economically left, socially conservative party.”

    I have generally identified this concept under the banner of ”National Conservatism”. The mighty Wikipedia (!) defines this ideology as being a socially conservative philosophy supporting ‘family values’ and emphasising the nation as the extended family, but one that may or may not be economically liberal, but probably economically left.

    As you have said it really isn’t right to describe UKIP as such, though UKIP could in theory become such. Their economic policies are not exactly high profile compared to EU / immigration etc. and have tended to sound to me more in the mould of Thatcher’s economic liberalism, but often sound incomplete. The Conservatives seem still dominated by the economic liberalist wing.

    A ‘National Conservative’ party (whatever the actual name) that was socially conservative but which was economically interventionist e.g. putting utilities back into public ownership ‘for the public good’ for example would certainly be something different to what we are used to… Perhaps one source of the Tories problems with the ‘nasty party’ label and the idea that they ‘don’t care about people’ – however unfair that label might be – can be traced to the following of the economic liberalist ‘survival of the fittest’ mantra.

    To quote my father (former Conservative voter from Edinburgh and a ”conservative” man) – ”We all used to vote Conservative, none of us would have dreamt of voting Labour, but then the Tories changed and they didn’t care any more about people. People matter more than things. That’s when we stopped voting Conservative”. The era he is referring to is the 1980s.

    You can make your own mind up of course whether you agree with that view point or not, but National Conservatism is an outlook that is not really represented amongst the major UK parties.

  33. I rather suspect the latest Populus showing a Tory lead is just a revert back to the normal margin of error after a couple of outliers recently.

  34. couper

    Yeah, yeah – Labour are doooooooooooooomed ‘cos you don’t like them.

    As the mantra here goes – let’s wait and see after the NO vote rather than have ambitious guesses.

  35. Does anyone know when we should next expect a referendum poll?

  36. fair enough. this carswell thing must dent the tories’ abilty to have a really stonking conference which would knock labour into a cocked hat.

  37. TOONIE and CB11 and R and D.
    Autumn Swing Back.

    The SWING BACK will not help the ‘Better Together’/Better Now campaign.

  38. Just a bit of fun, as my thirty seventh school teaching year looms here in sunny Dorset; tractor land.

  39. cl45

    Of wotyeronnabowt I have no idea.

    Build a sandcastle or something.

  40. @Candy

    I mainly agree with what you say about Lab and their likelihood to become a ‘paleosocialist’ party.

    In the New Labour years it seems to me that Lab drifted gently rightwards on social matters and sharply rightwards on economics.

    Since 2010 they have, I suspect, moved quite strongly in a social liberal direction – after all, even the Tories are hardly being authoritarian – and IMO this is uncontroversial within the party and quite deeply embedded: I don’t see it changing anytime soon.The dialectic within the party is about economics and whether the current rather sheepish tack leftwards should turn into something a bit more robust (rail renationalisation is a good example)

    My comment which started this debate off was about UKIP: in their thirst to pick up Lab voters will they espouse some leftish economic policies to replace the hard right ones seen in the unread bonkers manifesto of yore? I believe they are actually hard right to their boots but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they cooked up a left-sounding policy or two (back to renationalisation?) to pull in some votes from the old left.

  41. @Bill Patrick

    “Why are so many economist called Milton? Milton Schulman, Milton Keynes etc.”

    Maynard Keynes.

    @MrNameless

    “I believe it was me who was banging on about an economically left, socially right party. It’s such a rare thing there’s not even a term for it really – I came up with paleosocialism but it’s unwieldy”

    Isn’t that what Blue Labour was though? The idea from Maurice Glausman that Ed toyed with for a while before seemingly binning. As I recall that was basically about combining small ‘s’ socialism with small ‘c’ conservatism (a recognition that ‘centrists’ are not a homogeneous group and that if you can’t catch one section, you can catch another).

    As for the death of nominally Conservative political movements (though UKIP is, essentially, an old-school Conservative party) they’ve all really slowly died out in a way – whereas social democracy (or, in American, liberalism) has held strong (and adapted to such things as globalization by the incorporation of multiculturalism) conservatism has been eroded somewhat by the rise of classical liberalism (or, in American, libertarianism) and to some extent communitarianism (though that never really made much impact in political terms). Apart from UKIP there’s no mainstream party that really is a socially conservative party – and, in line with that, there aren’t really any conservative philosophers anymore. Off the top of my head I can think of Roger Scruton (but he’s more of a conservationist these days); and nobody reads Oakenshott and Flew anymore (not without good reason).

    There probably is a gap for a economically left, socially right party – but that terrain is, as Candy points out, being captured by right-wing parties (Front Nationale in France, UKIP over here), not left-wing ones. I’m not really sure that small ‘c’ conservatism is enough of a winner as a whole doctrine to apply to that area (seeing as it just anti-revolutionary and saying ‘let’s take things slowly and carefully’). What’s perhaps more needed in the UK (and France and elsewhere) is an economically left and socially left party – there’ doesn’t appear to be any of those around at the moment (and I’d argue was part of what drove the Lib Dems to their height of attention, aside from the Clegg-factor, before they became another one of the consensus).

  42. CL 1945
    As far as Dorset men are concerned Bournemouth is ‘somewhere else’.

  43. Could Darlings terrible performance be a factor?

  44. Anarchists Unite,

    There definitely is a Milton Keynes, I think.

    Phil Haines,

    “I think there is some polling evidence that Scots are slightly more in favour of remaining in the EU than is the rest of the UK population.”

    Right, that’s the evidence I haven’t seen, and that people seem to have mislaid whenever I ask them.

  45. “Labour are fighting for their survival a Yes vote would see them implode. Too many MPs not enough seats. You can understand D Alexander and Murphy’s horror that their cabinet positions are slipping away. So Labour are totally desperate to get a No vote.”

    The individuals you mention would be far closer to the top of the political food chain in an independent Scotland than they would be in the UK, provided of course that Labour won either election.

    I don’t dispute for a second that politicians of all colours regularly act in self interest even where that differs from constituent’s interests, but I don’t think that is the case on either side as far as this referendum is concerned.

  46. Also,

    “That might of course change with a “Yes” vote, as in the absence of being able to blame the English for every conceivable ill the nationalist camp would have to search for an new scapegoat.”

    An Aye vote means at least two (more likely three or more) years of negotiations in which it will be “Us versus Them” for Scotland vs. England. Then, if there is a currency agreement, there can always be grievances e.g. “The English won’t let us borrow to spend on the NHS!”

    The only way I can see the EU becoming the favoured scapegoat of Scottish politics is if there isn’t a currency agreement, and even then it would be a long way to go for many nationalists to travel all the way from pro-Euro to anti-EU.

  47. HOWARD.
    Two blue seats in Bournemouth.

    The town where I work, Poole, does have a very popular Lib Dem MP; Annette Brooke.
    Christchurch, a separate Borough, went LD in that famous by election.

    Dorset South went Labour in 2001; the only time Labour had won that seat, in a GE.

    Tony Blair led Labour then, I seem to remember.

    The late David Atkinson was my MP; he was replaced by Tobias Ellwood. His Labour opponents called him ‘Comrade Ellwood, as his views are ‘One Nation’ .

  48. Prediction Panelbase at the weekend will show Yes even or ahead. I will shut up if I am wrong but I won’t be. Then you will have to believe me when I say Labour are doomed in Scotland. I’m still a member but in Labour for Independence.

  49. I hope we don’t get into a discussion about “Is party X left or right?”

    As has been well-established, people tend to think that parties to the left/right of them are very far to the left/right of them, and that the party they support (if any) is in the centre or centre-right/centre-left. Let’s leave it there.

  50. Guymonde,

    “it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they cooked up a left-sounding policy or two (back to renationalisation?) to pull in some votes from the old left.”

    Possibly, but if there were to do that, they’d wait until early 2015, when there would be insufficient time for Labour to switch positions without looking weak.

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