This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%.

All very normal, but worth noting a slight update in methodology. As regular readers will know, YouGov’s political weighting is based on panelists recorded party identification in May 2010, meaning they don’t have to worry about changes in party ID over time – they weight people’s 2010 ID to 2010 targets. However, over the years new people join the panel, so the target weights need to adapt to this and reflect to some proportion that Lib Dem ID has fallen and UKIP ID has grown – hence once a year YouGov update the weights to reflect this. The changes this year decrease the target weight for Lib Dem ID and increase the target for Other (primarily UKIP) ID.

The end result is that the new weights tend to show UKIP 1 point higher, the Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems very slightly lower (less than a percentage point in all cases).


345 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33, LAB 37, LD 8, UKIP 13”

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  1. Norbold has decided to quit UKPR, citing pre-modding as the cause.

  2. Not quite as spectacular as Carswell’s flounce, but we’ll miss you, Norbold.

  3. @Candy

    When there is a by-election the Ukip constitution says that it is up the NEC to select the candidate. Carswell has already been selected.

    Ukip statement “Roger Lord is not now, nor has he ever been the by-election candidate for Clacton. The National Executive Committee of the Party have voted to adopt Douglas Carswell as the candidate for the upcoming by-election. Roger Lord is mistaken in his belief that he is the candidate and he can best serve the party’s and the county’s interests by standing behind the decision of the NEC”

  4. Ukip is continuing its proud tradition of unity and organisation and knowing what the hell the party line is, I see.

    I wonder if Carswell is really prepared for what he’s got himself into? Say what you like about the Tories, at least they’re professional.

  5. Killary45 – Yes.

    But the local UKIPers have been rather slow-witted in mouthing off to the press rather than keeping their mouths shut and expressing their grievances in private.

    Meanwhile, it looks like the local Tories in Clacton weren’t kept informed either:

    http://www.eadt.co.uk/news/politics-old/clacton_douglas_carswell_s_defection_to_ukip_a_bolt_from_the_blue_1_3748102?usurv=skip

    Quote:

    !Mick Page, the Conservative leader of Tendring District Council which covers Clacton, said: “That’s come as a shock – a bolt from the blue.

    “We always thought he was a Conservative very much against Europe but we thought he would work within the party to achieve his aims.

    “As far as I’m aware the Conservative association had no warning of this.”

    Mr Page added it was difficult to predict what impact the move may have on the resulting by-election.

    He added: “He had been getting ready to campaign in the general election and even very recently has sent out a great deal of material with Conservative branding on it.”

  6. Now that Roger Lord has been shunted aside to make way for Mr Carswell perhaps the answer is for Mr Lord to defect to Conservatives and become their candidate in the by-election ?
    Errr – I’ll put the kettle on and think about it.

  7. I know I should ‘t write this but I really find those in UKIP to be a little bit wanting.. Something of the night about them..

    Carswell is no exception.

  8. Candy
    I suppose the local Conservative leader described it accurately. It was indeed a ‘bolt from the blue’ (to purple and yellow).

  9. Spearmint’s back – yeah!

  10. Just heard Andrew Bridgen on R4 talking about Carswell. He said that this action made it more likely that we’d get a socialist Govt in 2015.

    Bloody hell! You go on holiday fora couple of weeks and come back to find that we have a socialist party looking like winning the Election. Anybody know who they are?

  11. Tony Benn’s dad resigned his seat when he left the Liberals to join Labour, subsequently fought the Aberdeen North by election and won but refused to follow Ramsay MacDonald and lost to a Tory in 1931, the only time a Tory has represented the seat since the 19th century

  12. Funny that it was Bridgen who said that. I thought he was one of the more likely defectors. Which wouldn’t have been great for me given I live in his seat.

  13. Checked the records and Aberdeen North has only had one 4 year period with a Tory or Conservative MP since 1832

  14. @ Allan,

    That seems a bit harsh. I’ve always rather liked Carswell- sensible on digital campaigning and the need to reengage the electorate, strong on Parliament standing up to the Government, consistent in his Euroscepticism instead of being a banner for every wind like Cameron. He doesn’t Euro-troll random parliamentary debates or filibuster Private Members’ Bills either. He’s not an egotist, at least not on the national stage (Norbold would be better placed to tell us what he’s like as a local MP).

    And he got rid of Michael Martin; we all owe him a debt of gratitude for that if nothing else.

    Out of that wing of the Conservative Party, I’d say he was the best person they had. I have no idea what possessed him to defect to Ukip (perhaps he doesn’t trust Cameron’s referendum pledge in the likely event that the Tories fail to win a majority?) but I’m sure he has his reasons.

  15. As a resident of (the Vastly superior in every way to clacton ) Harwich, I must say I laughed out loud when I saw that Carswell (Our former MP) defect to UKIP.

    I know Clacton very well as I go shopping there and have relatives living in the town. It’s been left behind, as Tourism has declined the town has declined. Massive unemployment, poor education, quite a few pensioners (not a bad thing), but it’s a town vastly fed up with westmister politics.Us from Harwich say it’s a Dive, and Clactonites call people from Harwich Inbred, some local insight for you. I See so many UKIP posters now in the Tendring at election time. People will vote for Carswell and for UKIP.

    It’s a desperately deprived area clacton and the surrounding area, Tendring. Carswell in my opinion can win the seat, Labour support in the area has declined massively.

    UKIP can win the seat, the only people who can stop then is the tories. I don’t see Labour taking any ground in areas like Tendring at all.

  16. @Spearmint

    Let’s imagine a hypothetical situation where a sitting MP of an unpopular party in government receives some private polling of his constituency. It shows that rather than being a safe seat, there’s a very good chance that he could be claiming unemployment next may. Would he be strongly tempted to throw his lot in with the “scrappy insurgents” to try and keep his seat?

    Not that this is obviously what’s happened, but perhaps a possibility. I await some polling of Clacton to tell us where the ground lies.

  17. Spearmint,
    Surely Carswell has given his reasons.Perhaps he was telling the truth or am I
    being naive?

  18. We will certainly miss Norbold.
    Are we sure it’s pre-modding, or has the fame and fortune he came into on the goggle-box gone to his head?

  19. Clacton on sea – who knows it might be making history. Maybe because I’m an historian – if only a Tudor historian – – I’m always tempted by historical parallels. The situation in the Conservative Party reminds me more and more of Labour between 1970-74 and this would in that sense make this the Dick Taverne moment rather than the Gang of Four moment.

    In essence just when the Scots referendum seemed to settle matters and provide the Conference season with a safe launch into the pre election phase the Conservatives will find themselves over-shadowed by Clacton. The secret weapon on the old tory party was Public Unity and Silence and in this strange new world that seems these days more the virtue of Labour who despite the occasional moment off-script generally keep mum and love EM despite what the polls tell them.

    It is always easy to permit one’s own political preference to define the interpretation of events but this is not good news for either of the main parties since it gives more oxygen to UKIP. I say both because the rumblings in Labour’s northern fiefdoms will only be louder in the aftermath of Rotherham. I cannot say if it will add up to a full blown earthquake but seismology is an uncertain science at the best of times. The immediate damage in any event postpones yet again the tidal flows which the conservatives expect to run strongly their way on the tide of economic fortune. fortune is fickle and gratitude is for the graveyard in politics – ask David Miliband. No, I am guessing EM will see more opportunity for patient planning to pay off in the medium term as the long term is now no longer on the horizon. These are interesting times…

  20. @ Jayblanc,

    Conceivable, but in this particular case I doubt it. He has a strong personal vote and an active and growing local association (thanks largely to his stewardship); I think he’s probably the best placed Tory MP in the country to fight off a strong Ukip challenge. And he has the guts to try.

    I’ve listened to his press conference now and I agree with Ann- we should take him at his word.

    Specifically, his word a few months ago combined with his word today:

    Douglas Carswell (back in May): “The only way to get a referendum on Europe is to vote for a Conservative Government next year.”
    Douglas Carswell (today): “I’ve talked to Cameron’s advisers and it’s clear he’s not serious about negotiating for real change in our EU membership; he just wants enough cosmetic changes to secure an ‘In’ vote.”

    Carswell is a committed Europhobe and a canny politician. He knows that if Cameron is elected and can get the referendum through (either with a majority or in coalition with the Lib Dems), then the Eurosceptics need him to campaign for ‘Out’. Otherwise ‘In’ will most likely win and the UK will be stuck in the EU on roughly the current terms for generations, this time with a popular mandate: an absolute catastrophe, from the Eurosceptic standpoint. Earlier in the year Carswell hoped the Tory backbenchers could push Cameron into making Brussels an offer it was bound to refuse and thereby force him to back ‘Out’, but it seems his conversations over the summer have changed his mind. Cameron is too committed to EU membership to sabotage it.

    Well, in that case Cameron has to be prevented from offering an EU referendum at all costs, and Carswell outlined the plan for that back in May: stop the Conservatives from winning the election.

  21. BARNEY CROCKETT.
    Good Evening to you. Anthony Wedgewood Benn was the name until the summer of 1970, and he called himself Tony then.

    JOHN MURPHY.
    I thought today of Dick Taverne of Lincoln. Roy Jenkins refused to obey the NEC instruction to campaign against his good friend. Sad days they were.

    Peter Ackroyd’s Tudor History, volume two of his History of England is brilliant; encapsulating all the revisionist work.

  22. I did speculate some time ago that defection to Ukip would be a tempting prospect for any ambitious, but frustrated, thoroughgoing Tory ideologue.

    Steve Hilton was said to have lifted bits-and-bobs from Carswell & Hannan’s The Plan; Carswell is reported to be partricularly disappointed with the watering down of his MP recall initiative.

    A fair few Conservative media grandees and bloggers held Carswell ‘the moderniser’ in high regard, potentially more influential than the circle around Cameron.

    Were Carswell to become a Ukip MP, he would no doubt relish the prospect of helping to write a manifesto… who knows, one that even Nigel Farage might be prevailed upon to read.

  23. As a persistent lurker and occasional contributor on this site I am very sorry that Norbold is going. Hopefully he will stay around long enough to read his obituaries and consider a resurrection.

  24. John Murphy,
    A very thoughtful and measured post,as usual.

  25. Guymonde
    Do tell about Norbold’s adventures in Telly land, as I missed it all.

  26. Jayblanc,

    Are you suggesting Mr. Clegg might go over to UKIP?

  27. @Neil A

    Thank you for the explanation.

    @LeftyLampton

    “Anybody know who they are?”

    The None of the Above party – they look set to sweep it.

  28. Much more importantly, latest YG poll on indyref has taken me above the redeem level of points!

    Thanks Anthony. Your money will be well spent on supporting the Scottish economy in supplies for the family wake/party on the 18th/19th. :-)

  29. CL

    “I thought today of Dick Taverne of Lincoln. Roy Jenkins refused to obey the NEC instruction to campaign against his good friend. Sad days they were.”

    Aye. That turned out well for defector and defectee.

  30. Yowguv:

    LAB – 36% (+1)
    CON – 33% (-1)
    UKIP – 13% (-1)
    LDEM – 7% (=)

    Got a feeling things might get better for the Faragists and worse for the Cameroons in the next couple of days.

  31. @EWEN

    He was on some daytime game/quiz show (can’t remember what it’s called) and won the star prize.
    This being ITV rather than BBC it was not a Crackerjack pencil and the warm glow of achievement but a serious sum of money – £10K comes to mind but don’t quote me.

  32. @oldnat

    Can you reveal the YG figures or are you just teasing us?

  33. Hireton

    It’s in the field. I just answered the questions. Looks like one for publication, and not just private polling, so no doubt it will be out in a few days.

  34. @BILLY BOB

    “I did speculate some time ago that defection to Ukip would be a tempting prospect for any ambitious, but frustrated, thoroughgoing Tory ideologue.”

    Ya, un der Fuehrer’s birthday ist also ein bankish oliday. Sieg Heil.

  35. ‘Yes’ activists take Salmond’s debating strategy to the streets…

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-28969671

  36. @ Mr Nameless

    The one politician to whom he is more loyal than any other is Austin Mitchell – and with him stepping down next year he may want to go out with a bang.
    ——————–
    I could be wrong, but from what I know of Austin Mitchell he is absolutely loyal to the Labour Party, despite his outspoken views. I cannot imagine him leaving the Labour Party.

  37. Steve2

    Like the No idiot who chucked an egg at Jim Sillars, both should have given the eggs to a food bank.

  38. Watched Jim Murphy’s appearance in Dundee – I’m sure there are examples of No supporters acting the same way but if that’s the standard of debate going on I weep for voters trying to make a rational, informed decision.

  39. Good Evening All.
    The Sun reports a 3% lead, but strangely says the ‘Lib Dem figure is very low’.

  40. If they’re egging Jim Murphy I could almost get behind the Yes campaign…

  41. Survation indyref poll in Scottish Daily Mail tomorrow – (fieldwork Tue-Thu) – presumably results embargoed till midnight.

  42. @Roland Haines

    Jawohl, meine kleine pumpernickel.

  43. Survation Y47 N53

    Regarding Jim Murphy I told you Labour are becoming hated in Scotland. The guy who heckled Gordon Brown in Dundee was a Labour member.

  44. Couper

    Those numbers seem to be confirmed from a number of sources, but after trusting Twitter once before, I’m waiting for confirmation that it’s

    Yes 47% (+4)
    No 53% (-4)

  45. The last Survation poll was an outlier. I think these are the same numbers as the three Survation polls before the last one of 43 to 57

  46. So no change shown by this company for many weeks

  47. SPEARMINT

    I don’t doubt Carswell’s intelligence and only time will tell if he made the right decision. I just find those in UKIP to be a little bit loopy and sort of bordering on eccentric,

    He’s like a Neil Hamilton mark two.
    …..

    “And he got rid of Michael Martin; we all owe him a debt of gratitude for that if nothing else”
    ___

    I miss big Mic.

  48. SPEARMINT

    “If they’re egging Jim Murphy I could almost get behind the Yes campaign”
    ______

    All yours sunshine….

    http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01293/eggs_1293442c.jpg

  49. Oh my giddy aunt…8 more Tories in UKIP talks!!

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