This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%.

All very normal, but worth noting a slight update in methodology. As regular readers will know, YouGov’s political weighting is based on panelists recorded party identification in May 2010, meaning they don’t have to worry about changes in party ID over time – they weight people’s 2010 ID to 2010 targets. However, over the years new people join the panel, so the target weights need to adapt to this and reflect to some proportion that Lib Dem ID has fallen and UKIP ID has grown – hence once a year YouGov update the weights to reflect this. The changes this year decrease the target weight for Lib Dem ID and increase the target for Other (primarily UKIP) ID.

The end result is that the new weights tend to show UKIP 1 point higher, the Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems very slightly lower (less than a percentage point in all cases).


345 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33, LAB 37, LD 8, UKIP 13”

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  1. Hal
    I have pondered that here before (whether Ukraine is a UK political event) and I can only see it as being beneficial to Cameron’s standing (and perhaps the FS and DS) as they gain appreciation for ‘standing firm’ and all that. A ‘wobble’ from one of the NATO colleagues would be very useful in that regard.

  2. Is Carswell a “flouncer” or has he made a “brave and honourable” decision?

    As for Clacton, I once went there as a young boy with my parents in the early 60s for a weekend at Butlins. A young and up and coming comedian called Roy Hudd was playing the end of pier show at the time and, for some reason that we never quite understood, he popped up as a conductor on a bus we were travelling on in the town. My vague memory is that he sort of hijacked it and took us for a bit of a mystery tour around Clacton to the accompaniment of loud laughter from the mainly elderly female passengers. My mother was not amused and it was a very early “beam me up scotty” moment for a six year old me. I had many others as my childhood unfolded!

    Old memories.

  3. 243,000 more migrants allowed into the country – and not my American wife. So much for an immigration policy that puts Britons first.

  4. Carswell on the Conservative Party: –

    “Of course they talk the talk before elections. They say what they feel they must say to get our support… but on so many issues – on modernising our politics, on the recall of MPs, on controlling our borders on less government, on bank reform, on cutting public debt, on an EU referendum – they never actually make it happen.”

    Ouch.

  5. ChrisL
    Labour lucky to keep their deposit ?
    Please, just for once think about what you are posting, even by your standards it is fanciful .Moreover our mate Norbold as Labour agent would be handed a loaded revolver and urged to do the decent thing.

    Wait a mo though, maybe the Blessed Tone will put himself forward as Labour candidate, that’s as likely as Lab losing their deposit.

  6. The only similar election in recent times I could find was the resignation of Bruce Douglas-Mann to refight his seat after he joined the SDP (from Labour):

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitcham_and_Morden_by-election,_1982

    It’s not a good omen as he lost the seat to the Conservatives, so both his old and new Parties lost out.

  7. CB
    Roy Hudd, a lovely man, he believes he is reincarnated from Dan Leno the Victorian music hall comic. I think he may also be a supporter of tgmoo.

  8. Mr Carswell has pulled the pin on a grenade, but I expect it will blow up in his face and seriously damage UKIP’s future prospects. The only contenders at Clacton will be Con/Lab/UKIP, with the other parties squeezed at an early stage. There are bound to be polls midway through the campaign that will reveal (as at Newark) which party (Con or Lab) the majority of the electorate should vote for to stop UKIP. The resulting failure of UKIP to win the seat despite the benefit of the personal vote for the sitting member will help to convince folk that a vote for UKIP at the GE is a wasted vote and in the wrong place could let Lab in. It will only be bad for Con if UKIP actually win, which IMO is unlikely.

  9. ewen

    Snot wurf it mate.

  10. As for the Ukraine, the West seems as reluctant to condemn Ukraine’s barbaric shelling of cities in the Donbass as it was to condemn the Zionists’ recent bombardment of Gaza. However, this is much mores serious as Kiev’s provocation of Russia sooner or later could lead to a Russian invasion to liberate the Donbass, with a rapid pursuit of the fascists across the flat southern Steppe as far as the republic of Transdnestr. The West supported the Russians when they did this 70 years ago, but now they are misguidedly backing the latest EU version of the Drang nach Osten.

  11. Which reminds me that UKIP are supporting the Russians in the Ukrainian war, I believe, which adds a party-political dimension to it in the UK.

  12. re the UKIP defection, it’s a good thing Cameron hadn’t decided to go it alone – losing a seat would have been quite painful. I’m quite surprised it’s taken this long for someone to defect.

    Possibly too little time left for more to do the same.

  13. Will Clacton Conservatives chooose a right-wing candidate or someone more centrist ? Amber raised a very interesting question about local Conservative members quitting to follow Carswell. Maybe we will find out how many jumped ship.

    As for the timing of the by-election, is it entirely in the hands of the Conservative Party to call the by-election, or could it be triggered some other way?

  14. I’ve done a quick calculation based on the 2013 County results for Clacton constituency, reducing the the two split divisions Tendring Rural East (75.3%) and Brightlingsea (26.8%) pro rata by estimated electorate.

    The results are:

    Con 32%

    Lab 16%

    Lib Dem 4%

    UKIP 29%

    Green 2%

    Tendring First 18%

    Conveniently all six Parties fought all six divisions and nobody else did.

    So UKIP did pretty well here anyway. But there are a number of unknowns. Firstly there is Carswell’s personal vote. But there is also the query of where Tendring First votes will go. (Will they even put up a candidate – they only got 2.5% in 2010). Are their supporters more likely to go with Carswell and UKIP or are they more traditional Conservatives?

  15. Oswald ,
    According to Nick Robinson it is entirely up to the Conservatives to decide on
    the date.I do not think that they will be in any great hurry.

  16. Ozwald any MP can move the writ for a by-election (the Lib Dems did so to speed up the Oldham and Saddleworth vote in 2010) so a member of another party could time this to perfection alongside the Tory Conference.

  17. Roger Mexico – good questions.

    I found this article on Google, which indicates Tendring First is made up of disaffected Tories, so they may jump to UKIP.

    http://www.eadt.co.uk/news/politics-old/tendring_first_could_make_an_impact_1_120700

  18. They should rip off the plaster and get it over with. Not only does leaving a vacancy give Carswell free campaigning time, it also drags out their misery over it right through the conference season and into the new parliamentary year.

    The earliest they can hold it is October 2nd. Just seven months before the election. Much longer than that and it’ll start to hurt their GE chances.

  19. @Ann-in-Wales
    Thanks. I guess they would not be keen on Clacton overshadowing their conference?

  20. Just been watching Carswell/Farage’s Q&A and Farage claims there are members on the Labour benches who hold UKIP’s views as well.

    Mostly a bluff I’m sure but did get me wondering if the likes of Field, Hoey, Mitchell might be tempted to make a splash.

  21. Mr Nameless,
    Frank Field would not surprise me.However I felt that was a bit of a bluff.What
    Is more worrying for the Conservatives is that there are likely to be more
    defectors.I seem to remember Farage saying as much a few weeks ago.

  22. MrNamess – “Mostly a bluff I’m sure but did get me wondering if the likes of Field, Hoey, Mitchell might be tempted to make a splash.”

    Doubt it. Here’s how those MPs voted in the Labour leadership election:

    http://www.labour.org.uk/leadership-mps-and-meps

    Frank Field had Ed M in first position. Kate Hoey had Burnham first and Ed M second. And Austin Mitchell had Ed M first.

    They’ve pretty much got the leadership they wanted – i.e. not David Miliband.

  23. Candy,

    I see what you mean about Field and Hoey but Mitchell still intrigues me. The one politician to whom he is more loyal than any other is Austin Mitchell – and with him stepping down next year he may want to go out with a bang.

  24. The UKIP candidate for Clacton, Roger Lord, says he was not told in advance about Carswell’s defection and still considers himself to be the UKIP candidate.

  25. You’ve had your chance. Goodbye again.

  26. Good luck with news from the Clacton constituency. Shame you’ve missed your chance to have it straight from the horse’s mouth as it were.

  27. I look forward to further wild speculation on what is going on down here.

  28. Important caveat from Ann in Wales there; the Tories have the date of the by-election in their gift – if they can find a date when nobody’s looking, or just wait till everone’s getting bored, they may spike Carswell on the day. I believe that if the Tories delay the writ too long Labour could force the issue somehow, but there’s not enough time left for that to be feasible before the GE. Having said that delaying too long could be counter-productive for the Cons.

    The “principled” resignation is also best politically for Carswell. If he had joined UKIP and waited for the GE he would have had less chance of retaining the seat in 2015 I think. As it is he will get UKIPs best shot at a campaign and massive publicity now, and if he wins the by-election he’ll have a big advantage in May, incumbency, the glamour of a winner and a fair old bandwagon. The suggestion that this resignation has been in planning for a while is probably well-founded. It seems well thought out, and cleverly timed.

  29. carswell’s timing is devastating for the blues. their conference was a major opportunity to change the narrative. now it will be overshadowed by the by election. UKIP will get more publicity…it’s very bad.

  30. @Ann in Wales

    My understanding is that any MP can move the writ, conventionally it is the Whip of the party the member belonged to. This is a bit challenging, as you could argue that Carswell had resigned from the Conservative Party when he resigned as an MP… There being no Whip for UKIP that leaves us in an interesting place.

  31. @Peter

    Its great timing for the immigration figures for Carswell too; he looks in front of the issue whilst the government looks behind – on the very day its announced.

    One positive for the Blues is its been overshadowed quite effectively, less good is it suggests confidence that immigration figures are going to continue to rise.

    The big headache will be when he wins; it might leade to further announcements.

    World Politics and British Politics are certainly bubbling up a fierce storm for the government.

  32. I seem to recall when Quentin Davies defected, there was some polling impact, but these things are too rare to draw any firm conclusions from.

  33. TheSheep – by convention it’s the whip for the party that held the seat.

    Precedent in the case of defection is that it’s the party the MP was elected for – in 1982 the writ for Mitcham and Morden was moved by Labour, despite the fact that the SDP had MP who could have moved it. In this case it’s a moot point anyway, as UKIP don’t have any MPs.

    Labour aren’t intending to play silly buggers over it – their whips office tweeted earlier to say that it was entirely in the hands of the Conservatives.

    In theory any MP can try to move the writ, but this is normally only done as a bit of pantomime, as it brings with it many risks. Normal process is the whip moves it and it goes through automatically. If someone else moves it, it is debated and if necessary voted upon. If the vote is lost, not only is the writ not issued, there cannot be any further attempt to move it for the whole Parliamentary session and the seat remains vacant.

    Now, one might be forgiven for thinking that David Cameron might find that mighty convenient… but I expect that would be to commit the error of vastly overestimating the likelihood of interesting things happening. The word on the grapevine is that the Tories are actually likely to move it very quickly and get it over and done with, on Oct 9th or 16th.

  34. KeithP – impossible to say. Davies defected when Brown became leader, so the two factors can’t really be separated… though I’d hazard a wild guess that “New Prime Minister” made more difference to voting intention than “Oily looking man changes party”.

    This is a different kettle of fish though, UKIP thrive on publicity, they hadn’t been getting much of late, I expect this will give them a boost.

  35. @Norbold

    I don’t think its such a given that Carswell will just stroll in and take the nomination and get local support as it’s being assumed – some of the UKIP members are not taking it too well and their dislike of Carswell was the reason they were supporting UKIP in the first place. It will be interesting how this plays out….

  36. Postage,
    Xmas day or New Year’s Day when everyone has a hangover?

  37. What’s the chance of a large chunk of the 16% ish Labour & 4% ish LD (based on Roger’s calculation) lending the Tory candidate their vote to keep UKIP out? The quicker this happens the better, get it out of the way.

  38. “Conservative Douglas Carswell has sensationally defected to Ukip. The Clacton MP made the surprise announcement alongside Nigel Farage at a press conference in Westminster on Thursday morning.
    _______

    This is the equivalent of every single Tory MP switching sides in Scotland.

    Oh dear Cameron the purple monster is back and this time it has blood on its hands lol.

  39. So what is Carswell now? He clearly was never really a Conservative since his alleged reasons for leaving are totally implausible and the party is probably more right wing now than when he joined.
    Socialist?
    Liberal?
    Nationalist?
    What?

    Kipper? Well as a new member of UKIP he will have to start compromising again on a whole range of issues he does not agree with – not that any of it is relevant since all his actions are designed to give us a labour govt.

  40. DAODAO says – ”There are bound to be polls midway through the campaign that will reveal (as at Newark) which party (Con or Lab) the majority of the electorate should vote for to stop UKIP.”

    Well this is a good point.
    Of course the socialists might want to see UKIP win to embarrass the tories; but against that do they want to go out of their way to give momentum to UKIP and hurt themselves?
    If there is a clear swing to stop UKIP then that would indeed be embarrassing indeed for them.
    Personally I think Carswell has shown himself to be a fool and deserves to lose but as the incumbent who is playing the anti politics insurgent then he will probably win. But the tories really ought to take the opportunity to make their argument – but I suspect they will not pick the right candidate.

  41. Looks like Carswell and Farage forgot to inform the local UKIP part:

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/ukips-clacton-candidate-says-he-wont-stand-down-for-douglas

    Here’s some choice bits:

    “The existing UKIP candidate for Clacton has told BuzzFeed he has “no intention” of stepping down, while prominent local UKIP activists say there is no guarantee that the local association is willing to adopt Carswell as their official candidate.
    “As far as I’m concerned I’m carrying on,” said Roger Lord, 57, UKIP’s existing candidate for the seat, who has been left in limbo as a result of this morning’s announcement. “If Mr Carswell wants to join us then he can get in the queue and hand out leaflets with the rest of us. Now that I’ve announced my campaign team, which now includes many members of his campaign team, his vote looks to be sinking quite quickly.”

    and

    “Anne Poonian, secretary of the local UKIP party, said she welcomed Carswell’s decision to defect, but pointed out repeatedly that there is no guarantee the local party will allow him to stand as the UKIP candidate in Clacton.
    “[Carswell’s] taking a very big risk for getting in for a little party,” she said. “We may not adopt him as our candidate, who knows? He has to be adopted by us, the local association. At the moment he’s just an unemployed MP. Who knows whether he’ll be adopted? He might be unemployed and have to find somewhere else.””

    This is UKIP’s achilles heel – the sheer boneheadedness of their activists in looking a gift horse in the mouth!

  42. Bantams
    Why on earth would an intelligent Labour, Green or LD voter want to stop Carswell winning?

    Oh I know, it doesn’t work that way does it?.

  43. I think that David Cameron could profit from this unexpected turn of events.

    He should openly tell Boris Johnson to apply for the Clacton nomination. If Boris refuses, he’ll be seen as someone who’s only interested in a safe and convenient (location wise) Tory seat. Is a prominent Tory who is so selfish the sort who deserves to lead the Party?

    Should Boris take on the challenge and lose to UKIP’s Carswell, then, again, he loses some of his magic. If he wins, however, he’ll obviously be a hero of the Conservative Party. But that would mean that UKIP would have been stopped in their tracks in their most promising constituency leaving Cameron with a greater chance of winning GE2015 and retaining the leadership.

    A win-win situation for David Cameron. Guaranteed to knacker either Boris or UKIP! What more could he ask for?

  44. I actually believe UKIP have a strong chance at winning the seat.

    If the voting is between, Con’Lab/UKIP we will eventually see one of these be squeezed out. Would Conservatives really vote for a Labour MP? I can’t see that happening, I think if pushed they’d go to UKIP.

    Would Labour vote for a Tory MP? No they’d likely want to see cameron with a bluddy nose and vote UKIP as many seem to have done in the Euros.

  45. Yes, I can see this will run and run. Do we have satirists any more. There used to be loads years ago.

  46. The downside for this resignation for UKIP is that the sight of a Conservative MP defecting to them is going to make it much harder to convince Labour supporters across the UK to vote for what Carswell has just reminded us is a party in which former Conservatives are very comfortable. I think that Labour will be comparatively cheered by events in Clacton.

    @Chris Lane
    The fact that Labour was 29% behind in Clacton in 2010, having won it in 2001, might have something to do with Harwich being lost to the seat in boundary changes.

    @Norbold
    Congratulations to you for your successful campaign to shame AW into de-moderating* you. And if you weren’t de-moderated* I’m struggling to make sense of your earlier postings. May you enjoy many further successful campaigns, especially later this year.

    [*Apologies in advance for the above abuse of the English language.]

  47. Norbold

    What’s actually happening there ? Has there been huge discontent recently ?

    I’d love to know what sparked Carswell’s defection at this time & can’t help thinking there is some local underl*ing reason.

    Your being local with local info could help stop some of the speculation….

  48. Well well well.

    I go on holiday for a bit and people start defecting to Ukip. And here I thought the most interesting thing I’d miss was the West Midlands Police and Crime Commissioner by-election!

  49. @ Norbold

    I’m not understanding any of your recent posts- are they something to do with modding on this forum or something else? Without knowing the context they seem a bit out of character???

  50. Newhouseset,
    Unfortunately for your theory,BJ is only interested in a safe seat as he has
    Just confirmed.

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