This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%.

All very normal, but worth noting a slight update in methodology. As regular readers will know, YouGov’s political weighting is based on panelists recorded party identification in May 2010, meaning they don’t have to worry about changes in party ID over time – they weight people’s 2010 ID to 2010 targets. However, over the years new people join the panel, so the target weights need to adapt to this and reflect to some proportion that Lib Dem ID has fallen and UKIP ID has grown – hence once a year YouGov update the weights to reflect this. The changes this year decrease the target weight for Lib Dem ID and increase the target for Other (primarily UKIP) ID.

The end result is that the new weights tend to show UKIP 1 point higher, the Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems very slightly lower (less than a percentage point in all cases).

345 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33, LAB 37, LD 8, UKIP 13”

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  1. Oh, yes he is resigning. Wish Norbold was here to give us some info.

  2. As I suspected. So no first hand news from the Labour Party agent in this crucial by-election then, eh, Anthony.

  3. Politics in the UK has just become very interesting.

  4. That’ll be fun (the by-election) for UKPR geeks if nobody else!

  5. Ladbrokes:

    Clacton by-election odds –
    1/3 UKIP
    5/2 Cons
    10/1 Lab
    100/1 LD

    Carswell seems to have a huge personal vote. Well done him for resigning & allowing the electorate the opportunity of having their say on his actions.

  6. Having looked at Rotherham’s recent political history, I doubt if it is a winnable UKIP target. I actually wonder if there is such a seat as a Lab /UKIP marginal? Any offers and don’t offer me Clacton (although)?.

  7. Where is Norbold?
    Is he on his holidays ?

  8. Howard,

    Grimsby is the only one which springs to mind.

  9. Perhaps the Tories should persuade St Boris to stand – now that would really be fun

  10. A UKIP/Tory fight.

    Labour will be sqeezed.

    Labour only ever a seat in that part of the word when TONY Blair was leader.
    1997 and 2001.

  11. Will you be replying to Ewen then, AW?

  12. @Bramley – I agree.
    The 4 Tory councillors in my Borough who defected to UKIP and did not resign, all got the resounding verdict of the voters this may: on yer bike.

  13. I’ve told Mr N on Twitter that you’ve banned me so perhaps he might explain to Ewen.

  14. Does anyone honestly think that Cameron and Osborne will be upset at Carswell finally fleeing the coop?

    I’d imagine they’ll help him pack and make sure he has all the phone numbers of the other rampaging Europhobes at the same time.

    The absolute best thing that could happen of for the long-term health of the Tories is the loss of those 12-15 Euro-obsessives to take their single issue to the appropriate single issue party. The Tories could meanwhile start to do some governing without listening to the incessant bleating of the unappeasables.

    This is brilliant for Cameron. Carswell will undoubtedly be eyeing up Farage’s job and can go and mess them about for a change.

    The only losers are the hapless readers of the Daily Telegraph, as when Carswell loses his seat, he’ll be free to offer his tedious and predictable opinions even more often than he already does.

  15. May be those immigration figures rally have kicked something off.

  16. Surely this contest is made for Boris Johnson.

  17. Chris Riley

    I rather suspect that Cameron is frantically hoping Carswell isn’t just the start of the flight of the eurosceptics before May.

    Carswell said he hadn’t told Cameron before making his announcement. Cam will be hoping Carswell is the only one.

  18. @Mr Beeswax

    No problem, I understand your view.

    I suspect Labour won’t be trying too hard in Clacton.

    Things just got a load more interesting.

  19. CL45

    “I hope Ed is a better campaigner than Wilson”

    followed later by

    “Wilson was a great campaigner.”

    eh ?????????????????????????????????/

  20. Norbold
    Looks like the boss has reconsidered due to special circs !
    Hope so anyway.

  21. I hope nobody is forgetting the really important issue that having an MP will make it nearly impossible to exclude UKIP from any debates.

  22. ROSIE and DASIE.
    Wilson was a great campaigner. IMO.
    He won his seat in 1945.
    He won the leadership in 1963 (‘a contest between a crook and a drunk’ -according to Dick ‘double Crossman)
    1964, 1966, Feb 74 and October 78 GE victories.

    Not bad.

    Only bettered by TB, 1997, 2001, 2005.

  23. Hi Norbold – welcome back, we missed you!

  24. @Mr Nameless

    Would the same apply to the Greens, Plaid C, etc which already have MPs?

  25. This could be a crucial by-election. The Tories should throw everything and the kitchen sink at it.

    A win for the Tories, against ‘their own’ incumbent – who has a huge majority & a high profile – would show the media & the electorate that “UKIP cannot win” & that “A vote for UKIP will put Ed in No. 10”.

    Were UKIP to win this, it seems less likely that the Tory leaning kippers will go home.

    And, perhaps I go too far with this observation, but a UKIP win would allow Labour to campaign against UKIP by saying they are simply Tories in disguise. That might be one effective tactic with which Labour could combat UKIP. It would not be enough on its own but it could help turn ABT voters away from UKIP (e.g. some of the people who voted LD in 2010 but now say UKIP).

  26. I’ll reiterate my debate participation rule – any party can take part which is standing sufficient candidates to form a government were they all to be elected. There would also be regional debates in Scotland, Wales and NI to reflect that PC and the SNP are significant forces there.

  27. Carswell went in reaction to those immigration figures presumably ? Although Chris R ‘s characterisation of him suggests he may not be capable of such rational thought ..,

  28. Okay, so Wilson’s victories apart from 1966 were slight: it’s just that once you get a majority, you can do more to promote your agenda, manipulate the economy, etc, and stay in power. Comparing these victories with the landslides Thatcher and Blair achieved is perhaps to an extent false.

    Once you get a majority about say 30 or so, it really doesn’t matter that much how many more you get, you only get to govern for maximum 5 years anyway, and you have enough not to worry about by-election defeats and the odd defection. If things go really wrong, then having a stonking big majority won’t necessarily help avoid defeat next time (apart from incumbency, which is a limited effect).

    So perhaps Wilson > Thatcher & Blair? In a sense.

  29. MeNameless: that seems to me not a bad rule of thumb.

    It just tends to shut out poorly funded new parties, which already are well shut out by FPTP. We should not be excluding new parties so readily. Maybe there should be a minimum level of support (say in the last year?)

    I’m really looking forward to a 4-way debate and election.

  30. Over at the Telegraph, an article suggesting that contrary to expectations, the Euro has not seen increased trade within the Eurozone. Rather the reverse…

    …which may disturb those who argue that a currency union is inevitably in our interests…

    “During the 1980s, as Bruegel’s researcher Giulio Mazzolini points out, EU countries’ exports increasingly went to one another. Intra-EU exports rose by eight percentage points of the total to peak in the early 1990s at around 68pc of the total. The share then fell back to around 65pc before stagnating for a while and then returning to the 67-68pc level, where it remained until the end of the 2000s. It then collapsed and is now back to around 64pc, a level of integration last seen in the mid to late 1980s.

    As to the eurozone, which was launched on January 1, 1999, the results mirror those for the broader EU almost perfectly, suggesting, as Bruegel puts it, that “the common currency might not have had the expected effect on trade between euro area members”. Intra-eurozone exports peaked at around 52pc of the total in the late 1990s and have been in decline ever since. They are now down at least five percentage points from their peak. This wasn’t caused by the financial crisis, though of course the hit to cross-border trade finance won’t have helped.”

  31. The nice thing about large majorities is that you don’t need all of your MP’s in the house at all times – meaning the more marginal MP’s are free to work their constituencies and increase their potential incumbency bonus at the next election.

  32. norbold

    Had I observed you were gone I would have said it wasn’t the same without you.

    Anyway, ‘s’nice yer back and I do hope that, like me, you can understand and follow the house rooooooooools.


  33. Amber
    Just as a thought, when I jokingly referred to a Labour win in Clacton, I had looked at the last result, decided that if most LD went to the Lab candidate and the right wing vote was split down the middle and lessened due to voter exasperation………

    A Labour snaffled win at Clacton would support the slogan ‘vote UKIP get Labour’ rather well don’t you think?

  34. The Police and Crime Commissioner (PCC) for Bedfordshire has been suspended from the Labour Party.

    Not to be confused with the resignation of South Yorkshire PCC Shaun Wright from the Labour Party in light of the child abuse scandal in Rotherham, Olly Martins was suspended from the party yesterday for divulging confidential information (about an on-going investigation) to his partner who then shared it with others.

    Labour were against PCCs; had the Party taken a principled stand & not put forward candidates, much embarrassment could have been avoided.

  35. Hmmm. Carswell’s answer about other MPs was interesting. He said “You need to talk to them. I’m not going to breach confidences.”

    Now if UKIP were really organised (or really lucky) they would put together a string of defections over the next few weeks.

  36. Carfrew
    Unlike many here I suspect, I have euro accounts as well as sterling ones. When we are choosing a holiday location, a euro using destination is always preferred. I found your extract interesting but I can imagine (only that) that there are far more significant factors over the last decade or two than currency sharing. Until a few days ago, trade with Russia had doubtless increased considerably!

  37. @ Howard

    A Labour snaffled win at Clacton would support the slogan ‘vote UKIP get Labour’ rather well don’t you think?
    Absolutely; although I think Labour would be willing to swallow that for the kudos of winning this by-election.

    Our friend Norbold would be a ‘hero’ in the Labour Party, were this to be the outcome. But it seems vanishingly unlikely (before I put too much pressure on him!).

  38. I’m bemused by those reading this as a UKIP/Conservative fight. Clacton may appear a safe seat, but that’s only because it’s a newly created seat with an election history of one, during a very bad election for Labour.

    With Labour returned to higher levels of support, and a right wing vote split between the Incumbent and the Party, this is not going to be a safe and settled two horse race.

    This is certainly a seat that the Conservative party absolutely must defend.

    Lose to Labour, and trigger “We should have been more Euroskeptic!” “No, we should have been in the Middle Ground!” in fighting, and the “Back the Winner” sentiment will start shifting opinion Ed’s way.

    Lose to Carswell, and that’s it, Cameron’s Eurosceptic campaign will implode and UKIP will move into the vaccum. They’ll claw a hole in the Conservative party’s side, that they may well never recover from.

    And as I’ve said so many many times, this is all the fault of the Conservative party’s confused misunderstanding of a “core voter” campaign. They deliberately highlighted and made a grand show out of policies, issues and events that played right into inflating UKIP. Instead of throwing a bucket of sand over the dying embers of an issue that near destroyed the party in the 90s, they reached for a bucket of petrol. David Cameron has been a better campaigner for UKIP than they could have asked for.

    And again, it was all too easy for them to have gone the other way and reached out to the Danny Alexander branch of the Lib Dems instead…

  39. @Jayblanc

    Paddypower are offering 25/1 on Labour. Surely worth a punt if you’re analysis is good!

  40. JayBlanc
    I was attempting being humorous, but it seems you may have a point -but perhaps not a very strong one. We need a poll in Clacton – I expect we shall get loads, remember Eastleigh?

  41. Lovely image from [email protected] , Bernard Jenkin said ” My ears are not in Nigel Farage’s hands”.
    This is going to be fun !

  42. Having thought about it, I’m guessing Carswell has taken his local Conserative association members with him. So the Tories may need to parachute in activists – perhaps even a candidate!

    So will the Tories delay moving the writ for as long as possible, do you think?

  43. @TheSheep

    “Hmmm. Carswell’s answer about other MPs was interesting. He said “You need to talk to them. I’m not going to breach confidences.”

    I don’t want to get to Robin Hood-esque levels of immodesty here, but I predicted some time ago that top level Tory defections to UKIP would be the second phase in this tragi-comedy, sometimes referred to as the realignment of the British Right. Should Carswell succeed in winning the by-election, there will surely be others following in his glittering footsteps. In fact, at ground level in local constituencies and wards, there has already been large defections of Tory members, councillors and activists to UKIP and they will be buoyed to see a relatively high profile MP tread a similar path.

    I’ve always argued that the reason that UKIP’s threat to the Tories is both existential and unique is that they offer a home for disenchanted Tory politicians. No Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, PC or Greens politician, beyond some isolated buffoon, is going to join UKIP, but the journey from the Tory Right to UKIP is a short and entirely plausible one. Carswell may be the first of many to take it. The fact that some ex Labour voters are voting UKIP is an electoral headache for Labour, but the combination of ex Tory voters and defecting MPs and activists is potentially lethal for the Tories.

    Events, dear boy……………

  44. All I know about Carswell is that he writes articles for the Telegraph and used to pop below the line saying sarcastic things to the UKIPers who camped out on there. I didn’t get the impression he liked them very much!

    In the last election for Clacton

    Con 22,867
    Lab 10,799
    LibDem 5,577
    BNP 1,975
    Tendring First 1,078
    Green 535
    Independent 292

    I’m guessing LibDem and everyone below will get squeezed to nothing. And if Carswell really has such a big personal vote, Cons to lose their deposit?

  45. Oddly, I have a good deal of respect for Carswell. I don’t support his political leanings, but can admire his honesty and integrity. He does actually seem to believe in democracy, and his principled decision to seek re election is testament to that.

    No doubt he’ll be characterized as a swivel eyed loon by some, but that would be ill judged, in my view.

    Any kind of Tory hold here would greatly help Cameron, anything else would be disaster. It’s a very high stakes play.

    @Carfrew – I mentioned that study already, but as I referred to a country slightly north of England, it was spiked.

  46. Alec – “No doubt he’ll be characterized as a swivel eyed loon by some”

    He’s definitely not a swivel-eyed loon, he’s sane and coherent and no-one is even going to pretend otherwise.

    He’s a great deal saner and less of a chancer than Farage. So a huge coup for UKIP.

    Makes you wonder what happened to make him go. I wonder if it’s something Cameron said.

  47. Good Afternoon All.

    I do not think that Labour has a chance of winning the Clacton seat.
    In my opinion they will be lucky to keep their deposit, in a fight between the UKIP and the Conservative Party.

    I do think that the rise of UKIP is worse news for Tories than for Labour.

    ROSIE and DASIE.
    The point I was trying to make is that Ed M needs to do much better than Harold Wilson did in 1964 if Labour is going to win the GE. Alec Douglas Home was under estimated by the Labour opponents then.

  48. Fun though the Carswell business is momentarily, I suspect the Russian invasion of Ukraine is going to be more important in the long run. It is clearly shifting opinion in nearby countries (Baltics, Sweden, Finland, Poland) towards more cooperation/bases with NATO.

    I wonder if there is going to be any spill-over into UK politics. Will defence edge higher up the list of concerns?

  49. Just what was not needed and a few angry faces this morning. We have to be careful though as this is in our heartlands.

    What [NewsUK papers] will be saying though that ultimately miliband is the winner and do you want that for our country ?

  50. Well,certainly that old saying about events is all too true it seems.Perhaps the
    Tories will not field a candidate here,as in the case of David Davis.Certainly I
    do not think this bye election will be happening anytime soon what with
    conference season and all.

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