This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%.

All very normal, but worth noting a slight update in methodology. As regular readers will know, YouGov’s political weighting is based on panelists recorded party identification in May 2010, meaning they don’t have to worry about changes in party ID over time – they weight people’s 2010 ID to 2010 targets. However, over the years new people join the panel, so the target weights need to adapt to this and reflect to some proportion that Lib Dem ID has fallen and UKIP ID has grown – hence once a year YouGov update the weights to reflect this. The changes this year decrease the target weight for Lib Dem ID and increase the target for Other (primarily UKIP) ID.

The end result is that the new weights tend to show UKIP 1 point higher, the Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems very slightly lower (less than a percentage point in all cases).


345 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33, LAB 37, LD 8, UKIP 13”

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  1. @Howard,

    Fair point, although I am pretty sure that

    a) there is absolutely no party political relevance to the report and

    b) such things aren’t likely to affect the way anyone votes anyway.

  2. AMBER

    your 4.35pm

    I agree ( must try to stop this :-) )

    …except for your last sentence. Race is not a factor. All humans are from one race.

    The word you used is the best one-“cultural”. A culture in which females are the property of a given man-be it husband, father or brother. …..and so a culture in which the only females available for young men are outsiders-white females , who have no worth.

  3. NEILA

    @”b) such things aren’t likely to affect the way anyone votes anyway.”

    How do you know how the voters of Rotherham have been affected?

  4. Roland
    What point were you actually trying to make other than you don’t like what you believe to be political correctness.
    The facts are clear the vast majority of children who are at risk from assault are at risk from their parents the havoc identified 95000 children at risk from their parents.
    I was a police officer in inner London for many years until injured out as a result of an assault perpetuated by as it happens a gang of white youths.
    Might I suggest you obsession with politicizing the issue because of your view land shouting its of gone mad actually blinds you to the bigger picture.

    This of course doesn’t for one moment excuse the actions of the people concerned in Rotherham or what appears to have been exceptionally poor performance by those trusted to take action against them.

  5. Looks like another P&CC by-election is coming up soon.

  6. @NEIL A

    I tend to agree with you about vi and the significance of these matters.
    However, do remember at the unitary elections a few months ago Rotherham was deserting Labour for UKIP at at least the level say, Milton Keynes was losing Tories to UKIP. Perhaps the appalling business of the couple who were not allowed to adopt due to skin colour, followed by this affair, will shake the tree even more.

  7. Neil A
    Supporting Colin’s point, we can we certain that 99% of voters (or greater) will be in the position of only receiving their knowledge of this report through the various news media.

    Thus, what is interesting is what they will think. It is typical that politicians will jump on whatever bandwagon suits their purpose and a publicised poll could strengthen or weaken their resolve to exploit the situation accordingly. Indeed some already have, just on gut feeling.

    That is why polling is important in politics.

  8. @Howard
    You are bang on, I do have an opinion about CSE and I am sorry it is of no interest to you. It is quite clear if these matters do adversely effect Labour in vi, then UKIP will be the beneficiary. Not the Liberal Democrat party.

  9. @Colin,

    Lead story again on 5 live, and seemed to be strong reaction against Rotherham council saying they won’t be taking any disciplinary action against anyone, as well as the refusal of some to resign. As you rightly mention, it was incredibly also that council’s services who reallocated children away from a foster couple for supporting UKIP. The whole thing is a total disgrace, as is the reaction from some and silence from others. This could well impact polling.

    Rich

  10. COLIN
    I have just seen an impressive young Muslim Youth Community activist interviewed. He said he was shocked by the extent & timescale of the abuse, and that trying to suppress it for “politically correct” reasons was “ridiculous”.

    He also pleaded for the abuse to be recognised as criminal and for the people responsible to be charged, and so to take it out of the context of supposed culturally derived behaviour of the Muslim community.

  11. RICH

    I can’t see a national VI effect-but Rotherham could be a very different story.
    15 civil actions being brought against officials-so its not going away.

    JOHN

    He did indeed say that. He said it was ridiculous to fail to pursue criminal proceedings because of “political correctness”-ie because of the ethnicity of the perpetrators.

    I imagine what lurks in the background here is fear of inter-ethnic strife.
    Well the stupid idiots who let it get this far have just made that more likely.

  12. Except that noone “fails to pursue criminal proceedings because of political correctness”. These kinds of cases are nigh-on impossible to prosecute, regardless of the ethnic origin of the offenders.

    The most effective intervention, sadly, is usually secure accommodation for the at-risk children. The reason intervention is so rarely achieved is that secure accommodation is a rare and precious commodity and there is an understandable distaste for locking up youngsters “for their own protection”.

  13. Mr Pilgrim
    I saw the interview as well and agree he was impressive. A good demonstration of how there are no single amorphous groups.
    The point is that when the council workers allege that they did not want to stir up tensions or be accused of racism then that very action is cementing a racial divide.
    Which ever way you look at this incinent (and horribly others) it is a shocking shambles

  14. HOOKESLAW.
    Good Afternoon to you.

    I agree with you, fully. I would add one point. Political Parties and Government agencies and all of us must ‘take on board’ the fact that abuse of children is widespread across the UK. Mark Easton’s BBC website article is very clear about this.

    In terms of voting intentions, there is nothing to be gained, I think, from addressing this issue. (On another matter entirely, the late John Smith told John Major the same thing over Northern Ireland).

  15. .

    Labour Rotherham council should be dissolved and taken into some sort of special control. I don’t think any of this will impact on the wider Labour VI but it’s another grubby mess with Labour’s footprints all over it.

  16. I picked up several newspaper articles recently about young women being accosted. In each case the CCTV image featured was of an ethnic asian or negro man. I have no idea whether there is a preponderance of ‘perps’ in this ethnic cohort, but I do suspect that these images inform opinion about immigration, even though one suspects probably they were British nationals and born and raised here to boot.

    I hope you are impressed with my up to date use of police terminology, by the way (perps).

    One day, perhaps the ethnicity issue will not be significant in opinion forming, but I strongly suspect not in my lifetime (I am in my 70th year).

  17. @Neil A

    “These kinds of cases are nigh-on impossible to prosecute, regardless of the ethnic origin of the offenders”

    Actually, why is that? Is it just due to the nature of the evidence, which I’d gather is, most of the time, hard to come by as it usually rests on just witness statements and, effectively, educated guess work by social workers?

  18. @ Neil A

    Except that no one “fails to pursue criminal proceedings because of political correctness”. These kinds of cases are nigh-on impossible to prosecute, regardless of the ethnic origin of the offenders.
    ——————-
    Exactly.

    And when even a minister for justice & some judges struggle with the concept of informed consent, what chance is there of successfully prosecuting cases like the ones in Rotherham?

  19. @ Colin

    I am waiting for the ‘leaders’ of the Pakistani heritage community &/or the Leader of Pakistan to make a (hopefully) heartfelt speech like the one made by the President of India on Independence Day (which you & I both welcomed on the day it was made, despite the rather low key coverage it was accorded).

  20. AMBER STAR.
    I agree with your posts.

    The only one with which I am unable to concur is the idea that a United Ireland under the UK Crown and Parliament would be ‘a good thing’.

    (smiley face)

  21. @Colin
    “… Councillors , Police Officers etc who liased with “traditional” leaders knew that those leaders , unlike the Women’s Groups , or the younger generation would share their conservatism & desire to turn a blind eye for fear of facing an awful truth”.

    We agree really.

    I’d say that’s a believable account, and is pretty much how I understand the working of the “native authority” policy – the “you scratch my back” principle. It was much easier for the Imperial authorities to deal with Sultans as they had that common interest in keeping things steady, much more difficult to deal with harijans directly as they might have difficult demands.

    I’m not “blaming the Empire” here (as others have claimed) but observing how in some ways we haven’t moved on from it. That’s our failure, not the failure of Clive, Rhodes and Kitchener.

  22. Can anybody ever remember when one person has had there resignation called for as widely! In 25 years of following politics I can’t. Every single part of the political spectrum saying he has to go. Surely can’t last through this?

  23. @Anarchists Unite,

    You’ve pretty much got it. If you read between the slightly coded lines of the report you’ll see the underlying difficulty. The talk of “issues with addiction”, “risk taking behaviour”, “they don’t see themselves as victims”, “treated like criminals” etc.

    What it often means is that you have a 14 year old girl with a drink and drugs problem, a string of criminal offences against their name who lies about her age and seeks out the company of adult men who can supply drugs, alcohol, money and somewhere to stay when you’re on the run from the children’s home. None of that makes it any less reprehensible and criminal for a man in his 20s to exploit that vulnerability, but it’s not what juries (and judges and barristers) like to see in front of them in the crown court.

    Of course there are harder cases. Girls of 11. Girls who were forcibly assaulted, threatened, injured or intimidated. But those are the ones that, if you read the report itself and not just the summaries and headlines, did actually trigger proper criminal investigations and in some cases successful prosecutions.

    I had to drop one case because the victim (aged 14 at the time of the offence) contacted one of her abusers and offered to “tell the police nothing happened” if he gave her £20. Completely understandable behaviour, in the context of the girl in question and the exploitation she had experienced, but I’m afraid the criminal justice system doesn’t allow us that kind of wiggle-room.

  24. I don’t think it will affect voting intention any more than the revelations of cover ups concerning peter Morrison in thatchers cabinet will affect conservative voters.

  25. neil a ,the best and most informed post here.

  26. @Rich,

    The man was elected. He hasn’t done anything “wrong” whilst in post and hasn’t done anything criminally wrong full stop. There’s simply no mechanism for him to go, other than his own personal feelings on the matter.

    The evidence from the report about the conduct of South Yorkshire Police during his tenure as PCC is fairly positive. I don’t see any particular reason for him to inflict an election costing several million pounds on his electors.

  27. @Neil A

    Don’t you go spoiling everyone’s band wagon.

  28. Neil A
    This is a very limited* audience but good that you bring facts into the discussion.

    *I stress ‘numerically’ of course.

  29. So as far as I can understand this case through the prism of second and third hand coverage [all dead knowledgable about the small details] somewhere around 1500 young girls have been abused, there is a clear cut case against their abusers, who are all Muslim, and yet nobody could be bothered to do anything about it.

    It does sound shocking and I’m sure that, as with life in general, there are no shades of grey.

    Everybody should resign or be sacked I think.

  30. The truth is that many things have gone badly wrong, so what is needed is to work out what that was in some detail, and how all the pieces fit together (or didn’t when they should have done). This is a systematic failure, and as such requires more than blaming individuals.

    A media witch hunt for public scapegoats only hinders this process. Of course, should it be proven that anyone was guilty of seriously malpractice at the time, sure that must be dealt with, but it cannot be dealt as a political football.

    This current atmosphere will not do any good in the long run.

  31. Either way, there are serious questions to be asked of the Council’s policies, processes and possibly even culture. With the sheer volume of children impacted, it’s very hard to believe some people were not aware of what was going on.

  32. ps: where is Ed Miliband at the moment?

  33. @NeilA
    A very astute ‘take’ on the situation in Rochdale. Having worked with a few 14 year old girls in care , for their own protection as it were, I would confirm the difficulty of proving abuse evidentially. Best just to try and ‘normalise’ their lives a little, and try to give them back a little of their childhood. But that costs shedloads of money. £300K per child, per year for the place I worked at.
    One girl in particular springs to mind, we were studying ‘ Romeo and Juliet ‘ for part of her GCSE and she picked up very quickly on the anti child abuse theme, with Lord Capulet having married a twelve year old as a man in his thirties. She got a ‘ B ‘ , God bless her.

  34. £300K per child???

  35. Amber

    That would be a start.

  36. NEIL A
    “What it often means is that you have a 14 year old girl with a drink and drugs problem, a string of criminal offences against their name who lies about her age and seeks out the company of adult men who can supply drugs, alcohol, money and somewhere to stay when you’re on the run from the children’s home. None of that makes it any less reprehensible and criminal for a man in his 20s to exploit that vulnerability, but it’s not what juries (and judges and barristers) like to see in front of them in the crown court.

    You’re the expert, but are you not portraying a justice system ir evades prosecuting criminal behaviour because prosecuting it and therefore tolerates because prosecuting it is difficult? Does this not exercise the authority of the justice system towards other institutions and sections of the responsible community to persuade them that the perpetrators should not be brought to justice, even the justice or recognition and record by let us say, political leaders, religious leaders, social workers, and teachers? Or towards the, evidently organised, and therefore institutonally self-determining group of men who practice the criminal abuse of under-age children?

  37. I don’t really buy the argument that the little slut had a drugs & drink problem, so they were just giving her what she wants anyway.

    Nope……..just can’t see the justice-or humanity in that approach.

  38. JOHN

    Snap !!!-well asked-and I think the answer is Yes in every case.

  39. Sorry –

    are you not portraying a justice system which evades prosecuting criminal behaviour because prosecuting it is difficult or inconvenient and ……..

  40. Amber
    Yes, £300K, that provided round the clock one to one care and individual teaching. All year round. Plus individual counselling from people who knew what they were doing. Trying to repair wrecked lives ain’t cheap. The thing was,leaving them in situ had proven to be even more expensive.

  41. JOHN

    The Report touches on it :-

    “We were contacted by someone who worked at the Rotherham interchange in the early 2000s. He described how the Police refused to intervene when young girls who were thought to be victims of CSE were being beaten up and abused by perpetrators.
    According to him, the attitude of the Police at that time seemed to be that they were all ‘undesirables’ and the young women were not worthy of police protection”

    But the South Yorks copper interviewed on tv said he knew they had failed & knew what they had to do.

    So local girls can rest easy now

  42. These prosecutors are afraid to go into court & hammer home the message: Children – no matter how self-destructive & unappealing they may be – cannot give informed consent.

    Judges, in some instances, also seem incapable of understanding the concept of informed consent.

    This is something where the public are going to have to take the lead & make prosecutors, police, judges etc. enforce the laws which exist to protect children, no matter how ‘messed up’ the children are.

  43. Yes Colin I do remember that Rotherham social services took kids from Ukip foster parents and that was indeed the catalyst to get Jane Collins a very good showing in the by election.

    Trying to divorce this issue from the climate of apologism that has underpinned and supported it will no longer wash.

    ‘Lessons will be learned’ they say. The lesson I hope many will learn is; ‘don’t vote for people who let this happen to kids’.

  44. NEIL A
    Since I am attacking your presentation ot of the facts, applauded by others, let me go further in saying what I think should strike deep into our conscience:
    that the abuse, the criminality which perpetrates it, and the dreadful lasting harm to the children abused, are allowed to happen and to continue to happen, over a period of more than a decade (up to 2010, not fifty years ago!) because the police, judges, senior politiciians and community leaders find it difficult or inconvenient to prosecute, that they think they will not get the results they want from a system they are used to controlling and to being rewarded for, financially and in the occupation of public office? Did that, for example, stop the police from arresting and naming Cliff Richard? Why are these men not charged, never mind whether the police would achieve a prosecution? At the end of the day, is it because it would be too expensive, or because the system is not fit for purpose?

  45. @Neil A

    Thanks for the response – you must have seen some pretty awful stuff. Are child care homes really that bad though (to drive someone away)? Also, in the example that you give, would it not be possible at all to have that statement overlooked? You knew about the bribe she asked for (though possibly not at the time) and, given the contextual situation, was not in a proper state mind? Is there no Lee way at all to use those arguments? Apologies in advance for displaying my ignorance of criminal proceedings.

  46. @ Anarchists Unite

    Children – no matter how self-destructive & unappealing they may be – cannot give informed consent.

    This makes the child’s behaviour (as described by Neil A) irrelevant but defence lawyers, judges, prosecutors & the police do not want to accept this legal fact. They have internalised the victim blaming culture which I mentioned. And it is so ‘normalised’ in our culture now that even you are suggesting ways to work around it rather than simply saying:

    Children – no matter how self-destructive & unappealing they may be – cannot give informed consent.

    The public need to make their wishes known to ‘the powers that be’ by repeating that simple statement until it becomes the new normal.

  47. no poll tweet tonight?

  48. Reggieside –

    Sun tweeted it earlier “Tonight’s YouGov/Sun poll – Labour a one point lead.. Con 34%, Lab 35%, Lib Dems 7%, UKIP 14%”

  49. RICH
    “ps: where is Ed Miliband at the moment?”

    Sky news has just reported that he has newly returned from holiday & has ordered Wright to resign by the morning or he will suspend him from the Labour Party.

    What have Cameron & Clegg said on the matter ? Anybody seen either of them since Cam returned to Corwall after his flying visit to No 10 last week ?

  50. Nuvva BIG tweet

    Bradford City 2 Leeds United 1

    A very understated yessssssssssssss!

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