This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%.

All very normal, but worth noting a slight update in methodology. As regular readers will know, YouGov’s political weighting is based on panelists recorded party identification in May 2010, meaning they don’t have to worry about changes in party ID over time – they weight people’s 2010 ID to 2010 targets. However, over the years new people join the panel, so the target weights need to adapt to this and reflect to some proportion that Lib Dem ID has fallen and UKIP ID has grown – hence once a year YouGov update the weights to reflect this. The changes this year decrease the target weight for Lib Dem ID and increase the target for Other (primarily UKIP) ID.

The end result is that the new weights tend to show UKIP 1 point higher, the Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems very slightly lower (less than a percentage point in all cases).


345 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33, LAB 37, LD 8, UKIP 13”

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  1. Classic IDS on Carswell

    “We were all surprised, but at the same time not necessarily surprised in a funny sort of way”

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  2. OLDNAT

    Couper
    Those numbers seem to be confirmed from a number of sources, but after trusting Twitter once before, I’m waiting for confirmation that it’s
    Yes 47% (+4)
    No 53% (-4)
    __________

    It’s getting mighty close peeps if this indeed is confirmed.

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  3. Wasn’t Survation that company that got the EU election result hilariously wrong?

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  4. cl
    Tony Benn
    I remember his battle to lose title!
    I showed TB round his dad’s haunts in Aberdeen. He was very moved

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  5. 08/07/14 – 47 Y / 53 N
    01/08/14 – 47 Y / 53 N
    07/08/14 – 43 Y / 57 N

    Seems to be no real movement.

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  6. I think wottittisis movement, momentum and morale against bullying, bluff and bluster and, in that case, there’s only one winner – pointless alliteration.

    I am confident that we are stuck with the jockular northen appendage to England.

    Confident, content and………………… bugger! I need another one being with C.

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  7. @Allan Christie
    ” It’s getting mighty close peeps if this indeed is confirmed.”

    Survation have been showing similar numbers for a while, last poll excepted, which now looks like an outlier. See the list of referendum polls above right.

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  8. What I’d like to know is how long Carswell’s defection intention was kept under wraps. If Farage can get another half a dozen defectors and stretch them out over the next few months he can raise merry hell with the Tories.

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  9. beginning.

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  10. SKIPPY
    08/07/14 – 47 Y / 53 N
    01/08/14 – 47 Y / 53 N
    07/08/14 – 43 Y / 57 N
    Seems to be no real movement
    ______

    What is this Skippy? Your bingo numbers?

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  11. Labour hated?
    Yes by the usual people. Not sure that the unbridled hatred shown to Jim Murphy is helping the SNP. Labour politicians in Scotland are used to the death threats.

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  12. @Allan Christie
    Survations last polls – showing its not a swing to yes rather than a return to the norm.

    i.e nothing to get excited about.

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  13. STATTO
    @Allan Christie
    ” It’s getting mighty close peeps if this indeed is confirmed.”
    Survation have been showing similar numbers for a while, last poll excepted, which now looks like an outlier. See the list of referendum polls above right
    ___________

    Okay thanks for the heads up but please forgive me I have been out the country for a month and still playing catch up.

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  14. @pups
    “Confident, content and………………… bugger! I need another one being with C.”

    complacent?

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  15. Carswell’s defection is the final nail in the coffin for DC.

    The Tories are downhearted, doomed and……..OH NO !!!!!.

    Its happened again and I now see how difficult it is to get that third word to alliterate and how bleedin’ good ole smuggy is at it.

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  16. @Barney

    Perhaps said politicians are doing something unpopular. :-p

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  17. SKIPPY

    “@Allan Christie
    Survations last polls – showing its not a swing to yes rather than a return to the norm.
    i.e nothing to get excited about.”
    _______

    Well lets hope UKIP can bring some excitement..I need my daily fix. ;-)

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  18. guy

    Complacent ?? Moi ????

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  19. @Rosie and Daisie

    Remember the five Ds of Dodgeball…. Dodge Duck Dip Dive and Dodge

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  20. @ Rosie & Daisie

    “Confident, content and………………… bugger! I need another one being with C.”
    ————–
    …Convinced [that Scottish wimmin - are lovely & not in any way soppy gurls].

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  21. If anything, the poll shows a slight movement to the NO camp.

    NO 48% (+4%)
    YES 42% (+3%)

    Since June this year according to Survation.

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  22. Amber

    PatronisingBTLady? :-)

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  23. Looking at the Survation tables the panel seem OK to me. Holyrood VI SNP 46 Lab 32 Con 14 Lib 7 – Very different from YouGov. 30% of HR Labour voters voting Yes 9% undecided. 18% of SNP HR voters voting No 9% undecided.

    So with a No lead of 5.6% plenty of opportunity for Yes to persuade the SNP voters to Yes or the Labour undecideds

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  24. Weirdly enough it looks like the SNP need to up their game and get their voters to Yes. The Tories are having no trouble getting their voters in line with only 2.7% voting Yes.

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  25. COUPER

    Are you sure the tables are correct? Because a bit further up someone was hissing over an egg splattering incident and linked it to the SNP and said it wasn’t helping them?

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  26. @ Old Nat

    PatronisingBTLady? :-)
    ———–
    I was ROFLOL when I saw that.

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  27. I think Jim Murphy has been one of the more convincing BT campaigners. He certainly understands Social Media a lot better than most involved in the No campaign.

    My apolitical wife follows him on Twitter as apparently he is “entertaining” and showed me his twitpic of the anti-Murphy campaign on Barra yesterday as evidence of his general amusing guy to followness.

    That said I do think there is a danger for Scottish Labour in failing to set out positive visions for the post No environment and also in being seen to be in bed with the Tories too much.

    That isn’t going to affect Murphy in one of Scotland’s few Labour/Tory straight fights but may damage other Labour MPs who benefit from the ABT vote in 3/4 way marginals that could get squeezed the other way.

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  28. Couper2802,

    If you were told that one of the key arguments for a constitutional change was to block your political preferences, wouldn’t that make you less keen on that constitutional change? The Aye campaigners, with very very very few exceptions, haven’t tried to win over right-wing Scots, and unsurprisingly they generally haven’t succeeded.

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  29. After Cameron flies into Scotland to address the CBI dinner (much truncated because the Electoral Commission labelled the event as a No campaign) I doubt he anticipated the Herald headline tomorrow to be “Cameron humiliated as CBI chief attacks EU vote plan”.

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  30. @Allan

    The egg incident is undecided. Some wonder if it’s a BT stunt. Kirkcaldy is a Labour heartland, so it’s a strange place to get bothered and the perp not immediately spotted.

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  31. SPEARMINT points out — ”Douglas Carswell (today): “I’ve talked to Cameron’s advisers and it’s clear he’s not serious about negotiating for real change in our EU membership; ”

    Talked to advisers … what a pathetic get out. Clearly too afraid to talk to Cameron in case he heard something he did not want to know.

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  32. @spadmetilimraw
    Apologies, only just seen your reply to my query re triggering a by-election. Not seen your name before so welcome from me.

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  33. STATGEEK

    Ah yes agent Agent Provocateur raises its ugly head again.

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  34. OLDNAT

    Not been a good day for Cameron north and south today.

    Poor chap.

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  35. At tonight’s speech Cameron wanted to tell people that he was proud of his Scottish heritage.

    He should had elaborated a little bit more in it.

    http://www.clan-cameron.org/kids/meaning.html

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  36. Labour trebles its lead in latest YouGov poll. Was 1% now 3%.

    Here we go, here we go, here we….

    Duggie C, I luv yer, baby!

    Apologies. Just got back from the pub.

    :-)

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  37. Statgeek

    Anything is possible, though since the egg hurler was clearly identifiable from the video coverage, Police Scotland may be expected to make an early arrest – assuming a complaint has been made.

    In the absence of evidence one way or another, assuming the attacker was an eejit seems the a priori assumption. Of course, it could be the same person who hurled an egg at Sillars, and that he has a compulsion to throw eggs at politicians called Jim.

    In which case, James Kelly might need to enhance his security provision.

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  38. Steve

    “‘Yes’ activists take Salmond’s debating strategy to the streets…

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-28969671

    I cannot put into words the depth of my horror at the content of that report.

    “Police Scotland”? Police-bloody-Scotland?

    What sort of a name is that? Has the Auld Alliance now extended to Gallicising the relative positions of nouns and adjectives? Or is this a bizarre example of noun-verbiage?

    You can see the cogs turning in the PR company who came up with this can’t you?

    “Who are they?”
    “Police”
    Where are they?
    “Scotland”
    “What do they do?”
    “Police Scotland”

    “What did you just say? WHAT did you just say? Genius! Genius! This wraps the whole lot up in one, instantly-recognisable, if grammatically illogical phrase.”

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  39. @Lefty

    All the reorganisation has done for the end user as far as I can tell (and I communicate with the police in Scotland regularly) is make contact more difficult.

    Still, it sounds trendier, and they’re a modern democracy in Scotland now. It’s those little things that count when all your offering is style.

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  40. @Lefty

    All the reorganisation has done for the end user as far as I can tell (and I communicate with the police in Scotland regularly) is make contact more difficult.

    Still, it sounds trendier, and they’re a modern democracy in Scotland now. It’s those little things that count when all you’re offering is style.

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  41. No doubt many here have seen that some news sources are telling us that some more (eight?) Conservatives are considering defecting to UKIP, possibly after an election win in Clacton if it happens. Now that is serious problem if one was bad enough for the Conservatives. There’s also mention of Labour backbenchers too. We shall see…

    It still seems to me Eastern England will be a good territory for UKIP to target, it’s just there are some big Conservative majorities there to overturn. They’re going to need some serious vote concentration to do that.

    A question: if you change party, do you still get an incumbency bonus?

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