The snap ICM poll following the second Salmond-v-Darling debate shows a convincing win for Alex Salmond. 26% think Darling won the debate, 65% think Salmond did, 9% didn’t know. Tabs are here.

In the ICM poll following the first debate last month the large majority of existing YES voters thought Salmond won, the large majority of existing NO voters thought Darling won, don’t knows were pretty evenly split – hence a Darling victory. In second debate poll existing YES voters almost all thought Salmond won, only a bare majority of NO voters thought Darling did, the small number of don’t knows favoured Salmond – hence the Salmond victory.

Will it have any impact on voting intentions? Well, that’s a different question. Amongst the respondents in the survey there was no difference in the NO lead before the debate and the NO lead afterwards, but that doesn’t necessarily mean much. Remember that the instant verdict poll gave the first debate to Alistair Darling, yet of the four polls since the first debate only one showed significant movement toward NO, two showed modest movement toward YES, one showed significant movement toward YES. Instant reaction debate polls do their job of crowning a debate victor… but they don’t necessarily do a good job of predicting the impact.


303 Responses to “ICM show Salmond winning second debate”

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  1. candy

    Is it ‘cos yer a Yorkshireman yourself?

  2. @Graham

    I imagine it was because the reason the govt was brought down was the 40% rule. He wouldn’t want to open the 1979 referendum can of worms followed by 18 years of Tories. There is a fear of history repeating itself if we vote No we end up with decades of Tories.

  3. Candy

    There is no way that I could explain to you your own personal views of similarity/difference of membership of different political units, if you don’t know yourself.

    Personally, I find as much or as little difference between people regardless of which international state they are citizens of.

    You may take a different view of humanity, but I never did understand the value of the particular form of nationalism that you appear to be asserting.

  4. @rosieanddaisy – I’m from the south-west. We’re celts not vikings like those yorkshire folk.

    I think there are celts in Scotland too in the west, and anglo-saxons in eastern Scotland – interesting that they’ve imagined that the southern english are “foreign” while our viking friends in Yorkshire and anglo-saxon friends in georgieland think we belong to the same nation.

    I blame that Aussie Mel Gibson.

  5. Candy

    The population of Scotland is 5.3 million, bigger than Ireland and eight other EU members. There may be many reasons why Scotland should remain part of the UK, but being too small to survive on its own isn’t one of them.

  6. Candy

    If I understand your latest post correctly, you are hypothecating some sub-stratification of those living in the British Isles by some form of “ethnic” categorisation based on different invasions by different peoples at different times.

    There are a lot of very good books around which demonstrate the total nonsense of such thinking.

  7. @OLDNAT

    Earlier you professed to not understand the term; ‘win ugly’ which is in common coin south of the border. How quaint that you haven’t come across it!

    So imagine you are tossing your caber and it gets stuck in your sporran and crushes your haggis and you throw it away and it lands on Jeanette Krankie. But it turns out you have broken the world record! You see you have won but in an ugly fashion, hence ‘won ugly’. Hope that helps.

  8. candy

    I hope you are taking notice of all the free advice you are getting.

    Why not ask for a recommended reading list while you’re here?

  9. Mr Beeswax

    I’m always glad to learn of different variants of English, as it is spoken in strange lands.

    Sadly, you have failed to grasp the purpose of caber tossing.

    However, in the spirit of multi-cultural education, you can learn about it here

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caber_toss

    As you will note, if Jeanette Krankie, or any similar person, were to be standing at precisely the point at which the end of the caber were to strike the ground, then that might conceivably be considered to be
    1. a foul throw, as an external force had influenced the fall of the caber
    2. a foul throw, though still a remarkable achievement worthy of free drinks at the bar all day
    3. a Scottish alternative to the ice-bucket challenge (though normally the ice-bucket challenge is simply known in Scotland as “leaving the house”.

  10. @rosieanddaisy – I might take your advice and ask for a reading list.

    I really REALLY need some help in understanding why Scots are “different”.

    Oldnat – Not sure what to make of your comment. You obviously don’t believe that people in Plymouth have a distinct local culture and history to say, people in Leeds. After all we both call ourselves English and that’s enough to stereotype us as “exactly the same” in the minds of the Scots, right? Whilst at the same time you believe people in Scotland have “such” a different culture to the rest of Britain that you need a separate country!

    How about we’re just open-minded and pragmatic enough to see what we have in common, while you are emphasizing microscopic differences? And BTW “we” includes all the people who’ve emigrated to England in the last 300 years too.

  11. Can people stop saying “reading list”? As a penniless student with only three weeks of freedom left it’s liable to give me nightmares.

  12. Righty-ho.

    I shall say “reading list” no more.

  13. While we’re handing out pre-term assignments, here’s a House of Lords Library Note on Polling Data on the Scottish Independence Referendum:

    http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/briefing-papers/LLN-2014-027/polling-data-on-the-scottish-independence-referendum

    It’s a bit Polling 101, but none the worse for that.

  14. Candy

    “You obviously don’t believe that people in Plymouth have a distinct local culture and history to say, people in Leeds. After all we both call ourselves English and that’s enough to stereotype us as “exactly the same” in the minds of the Scots, right?”

    Nope. Totally wrong.

    Except, of course, in so far as those who live in England are governed differently from those who live in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, Eire, the Isle of Man or the Channel Islands (though including the latter in the “British Isles” is a bit of a geographical stretch).

    There are cultural and historical variations within each administration, but it is likely that none of them are genetically determined

    It’s equally true that Blacklion and Belcoo in the island of Ireland (separated by a wee bridge) are in different states, but share an enormous common heritage.

  15. Roger Mexico

    School term has already begun in Scotland.

  16. Most of you won’t have seen the Better Together broadcast (currently trending on Twitter as #PatronisingBTLady), but I’d love to see the (no doubt private) polling by the No campaign, among women as to whether it was persuasive for or against their cause.

  17. Old Nat – the “government” we notice most is local. And government doesn’t really affect culture much. That’s handed down as tradition within families and communities. Genetics play some small part, learned local culture plays a greater part.

    You seem to have convinced yourself that there is greater difference between Edinburgh and Leeds because of “government” than there is between Leeds and Plymouth. That’s the Scot in you making stereotypes about the English.

    Actually there is world of difference between Plymouth and Leeds – they talk a different dialect in Leeds for starters. The way they do things is different, the food is different, even the way they dress for a night out is different (we’re more laid-back and dressed down on the south coast).

    Edinburgh and Brighton have more in common than Plymouth and Leeds. But Plymouth, Brighton and Leeds have decided they are part of a single nation but Edinburgh thinks it’s in a foreign country. Which seems distinctly odd and artificial.

  18. Candy

    Regrettably, I have come to the conclusion that you seriously believe what you post.

    It’s probably a condition caused by watching too many BBC documentaries.

  19. Oldnat – sounds like you are copping out of the argument because you just don’t want to acknowledge that there are greater differences between English cities than between some English cities and some Scottish cities.

    BTW – all my observations are based on visiting the cities I mentioned. Have you ever actually left Scotland and observed the world outside the stereotypes of the “foreign” English you have constructed in your head?

  20. From Yougov

    “Our regular update to our weighting targets to reflect trends in the population.”

    “The changes make only minor differences to our voting intention figures. On average the new weights show UKIP 1 point higher, with the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats all down by a fraction of a percentage point.”

    “Today’s voting intention figures of CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13% would have been CON 34%, LAB 37%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12% under the old weights.”

    So in today’s poll, the changes slightly help UKIP and hinder Cons – increasing the Lab lead. I wonder if Populus have also made methodological changes, the Lab leads seem bigger than usual recently.

  21. Good Morning All.
    .

    FLOATING VOTER.
    The 1964 GE figures are well worth a study, as I think we are in that sort of ‘ball park’ politically.
    I was surprised when I looked at them recently to find that Labour did not have a big %vote increase in October 1964..

  22. Today’s YouGov – new weighting which takes a point of Con and gives it to UKIP.

    Lab 37
    Con 33
    UKIP 13
    LDem 8
    Green 5
    Nats 4
    Other 1

    Zeroes across all crossbreaks for both BNP and Respect

    Approval: -21

    Lots of questions about how worried people are; mostly slightly more worried than last time. And questions about the 3 main party leaders’ qualities which as usual are terrible for all of them, especially Clegg.

  23. (By ‘3 main party leaders’ I mean 3 main parties in Parliament, UKIP polling ahead of LDems notwithstanding)

  24. Oldnat/Barney

    Just caught up on the Norwegian independence comments. True, there was some vague military posturing on both sides following the Storting’s effective declaration of independence, but the Swedish government rapidly concluded it would rather dissolve the union than have a war with Norway. Which in the context of early 20th century European politics counts as pretty amicable and civilised to me.

    More relevant to the current discussion, perhaps, is that Norway had retained more of the apparatus of a separate state, and the August 1905 plebiscite produced a result AS could only dream of – 99.5% Yes (and no suggestion of rigging, as far as I’m aware).

    But my original point was that the Norwegian experience should be seen as supporting the case for Scottish independence, so I was a little surprised by Oldnat’s aggressive condescension.

  25. @candy

    Reading your posts I wonder if you think the Union Flag should still be flying over Dublin?

  26. I am pleased to read that Yougov have tweaked their weightings a smidgin. Not sure if it is enuf of a tweak to take full account of the new political landscape due to the rise of UKIP and the decline of LD – – but it’s a start.

  27. “if we vote No we end up with decades of Tories.”

    Promises, promises. You’re not going to get me to vote Naw so easily.

  28. @JohnKay

    I would like to think that those choosing to post on this otherwise excellent site would avoid such “aggressive condescension” to you and others regardless of whether they agreed with you or not. Sadly that’s not the case – and you see the same attitude being demonstrated night after night here.

  29. German consumer confidence ‘collapsed’ last month, according to a GfK survey. The biggest one month slump in 30 years. If this works through into actual spending decisions, it’s likely to further tip the German and EZ economies into decline. As our major export market, that isn’t great news, 8 months out from an election.

  30. Reading your posts I wonder if you think the Union Flag should still be flying over Dublin?
    ————-
    I think it would be great to have a united Ireland; & for it to be part of the UK. Of course it’s vanishingly unlikely to happen in my lifetime but maybe some day…

  31. @Floating voter re YouGov
    “Our regular update to our weighting targets to reflect trends in the population.”
    “The changes make only minor differences to our voting intention figures. On average the new weights show UKIP 1 point higher, with the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats all down by a fraction of a percentage point.”

    Changes to weighting are presumably a means of compensating for small systematic errors. But the alteration to UKIP is comparable to the random error, and so is a significant alteration, while alterations to the other parties are not.

  32. @Wes

    “And questions about the 3 main party leaders’ qualities which as usual are terrible for all of them, especially Clegg.”

    I think you hit on an interesting point, occasionally raised here but largely overlooked. It probably explains why Miliband might be getting away with it a bit in terms of his own personal ratings seemingly inflicting only minor damage on his party’s overall VI ratings in the polls. Whether this still holds true next May is a very moot point. Those leaning towards a Tory election victory think that Cameron’s better ratings on Prime Ministerial and leadership qualities will be critical when voters minds are more concentrated but those like me, who wonder about that, believe that Cameron’s own lukewarm and underwhelming personal ratings may mitigate against the leadership factor having the impact that some think it inevitably will.

    Taken in the round, and away from direct comparisons to Clegg and Miliband, Cameron doesn’t appear to possess a political persona that’s likely to attract a great personal vote. His personal ratings in the polls suggest a Prime Minister who hasn’t really struck much of a chord with the electorate. His blandness allows him to escape the deeper opprobrium that Clegg and Miliband appear to attract, bit it also means that genuine public enthusiasm, even affection, eludes him too. Accordingly, he looks a very beatable Prime Minister to me.

  33. @ Phil Haines

    Thanks for that support. It does sometimes feel as if there’s a UKPR clique which feels uncomfortable with contributions from occasional commenters and assumes – without knowing anything about the occasional commenters’ backgrounds – that they are politically wet behind the ears. Oldnat seems to have had a bilious attack last night, to judge by his approach to Candy.

    But as you say, it’s an otherwise excellent site.

  34. JohnKay, as long as you unconditionally support the SNP and Scottish independence, Ole Natty’ll be your bestest friend in the whole wide world.

    However, if you possess a milligram of political and economic awareness….*retreats to a safe distance*

  35. @Couper2002
    ‘I imagine it was because the reason the govt was brought down was the 40% rule. ‘

    I really think that is beside the point. At the end of the day the SNP decided to bring down the Callaghan Government and effectively opened the door to 18 years of Tory rule. That should be the immediate reply to attempts by the Nationalists to link Labour leaders to the Tories – the Scottish voters need to be reminded of a fact probably widely forgotten.

  36. @ Couper 2802

    Bringing down Callaghan’s government is the reason why the SNP were known as the Tartan Tories for a long time thereafter.

  37. Wes

    I’m always fascinated that the age group who most worry that they will “lose out because foreign factories and/or workers from abroad can do the same job more cheaply” are the 60+ lot. 52% of them in the latest poll. That must include every single officially working 60+ person in the country, plus about 2 million of the buggers who are moonlighting on the side.

  38. “surprised by such aggressive condescension”

    If that is true John Kay then you haven’t been paying attention to the early hours posts from the wise one, going back through centuries of superior understanding of…..err……….. um…………………….
    …………………….. well, everything I s’pose.,

  39. @ Lefty

    I’m always fascinated that the age group who most worry that they will “lose out because foreign factories and/or workers from abroad can do the same job more cheaply” are the 60+ lot. 52% of them in the latest poll.
    —————
    They may be thinking of where their pensions come from – i.e. from taxes &/or investment returns created by the working population. Low wage, low productivity employment may put pensions at risk.

  40. R&D,

    The word is Ultracrepidarianism.

  41. I was away walking in Cumbria yesterday so have spent this morning catching up on yesterday’s and this mornings posts. Unless I missed them, there seem to be few if any comments re the devisive nature of the debate. General feeling from those at the back of the bus yesterday was “if that is what Salmond and his mates think of the English then good riddence”. One guy, who unlike me, switched off after 30 min even had his wife saying to him that if there is independence then they shouldn’t set foot in Scotland again. I have been increasingly feeling the same way in recent days despite the fact we have at least one trip to “The Burgh” (as my wife calls it) every year.

    If this is a general feeling re the English (perhaps the Welsh may also feel the same) then Scottish tourism may be dealt a significant blow.

    It seems to me that Salmond is underestimating the animosity he is raising in England and the thought that rUK will agree to any of his demands is rapidly reducing from an initial very unlikely starting point.

  42. @Johnkay
    You have a point. It does feel like you are talking to yourself at times.

  43. @Amber @Graham

    Maybe they don’t want voters reminded that it was Labour’s George Cunningham’s amendment that denied Scotland an ‘Assembly’.

  44. steve2

    I nave a much shorter word in mind.

  45. An American luthier sent me an absolutely amazingly beautiful photo of the view from his porch yesterday.

    Sadly however, if you want to encapsulate the madness that id the USA in one news item, here it is:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/11057775/Nine-year-old-American-girl-accidentally-kills-shooting-instructor-with-Uzi-submachine-gun.html

  46. Just thought I’d read that AC Milan were keen to take Tories on loan.

    Sadly its Torres.

  47. @Couper2002
    ‘Maybe they don’t want voters reminded that it was Labour’s George Cunningham’s amendment that denied Scotland an ‘Assembly’.’
    I somehow doubt that would be seen by most Scots as sufficient justification to help the Tories into office. It was certainly not the view taken by Scotland at the time – at the 1979 election the SNP lost 9 of their 11 seats – 7 to the Tories!

  48. @ Couper 2802

    I expect that you think was a lot of support in Scotland for the ‘Assembly’. You might want to think again:

    The referendum resulted in a 51.6% support for the proposal on a turnout of 32.9%.

  49. @Graham

    I agree Labour were certainly seen as left-wing, pro-Scotland, pro-Home Rule. In fact Labour increased their vote shares and seats through the Tory years in Scotland. However that has all been totally ruined now, hasn’t it?

    Labour has lost the party of home rule mantle and by campaigning with the Tories has lost the working classes.

    In the past Labour representatives in Scotland would never be heckled the way Darling was in the debate, that was reserved for Tories.

    Even Jim Murphy on his tour is attracting anger and heckling. This is not by the SNP but by disillusioned Labour voters in the Labour areas.

    Regardless of referendum outcome I suspect Labour in Scotland are going to die. Labour for Independence or Scottish Socialists will take up the working class mantle. Labour could move further right but then they rock up against the Tories.

  50. @ Amber
    Turnout in the 1979 Referendum was actually 63%. This meant that whilst 51.6% voted YES , it only represented 32.9% of the electorate. Wilkipedia is rather confusing with its figures here!

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