The snap ICM poll following the second Salmond-v-Darling debate shows a convincing win for Alex Salmond. 26% think Darling won the debate, 65% think Salmond did, 9% didn’t know. Tabs are here.

In the ICM poll following the first debate last month the large majority of existing YES voters thought Salmond won, the large majority of existing NO voters thought Darling won, don’t knows were pretty evenly split – hence a Darling victory. In second debate poll existing YES voters almost all thought Salmond won, only a bare majority of NO voters thought Darling did, the small number of don’t knows favoured Salmond – hence the Salmond victory.

Will it have any impact on voting intentions? Well, that’s a different question. Amongst the respondents in the survey there was no difference in the NO lead before the debate and the NO lead afterwards, but that doesn’t necessarily mean much. Remember that the instant verdict poll gave the first debate to Alistair Darling, yet of the four polls since the first debate only one showed significant movement toward NO, two showed modest movement toward YES, one showed significant movement toward YES. Instant reaction debate polls do their job of crowning a debate victor… but they don’t necessarily do a good job of predicting the impact.


303 Responses to “ICM show Salmond winning second debate”

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  1. Or perhaps both, though necrophilia is probably not an appropriate topic for this site.

  2. @RogerMéxico
    “Again my point is that the argument that an independent Scotland wouldn’t have control over its currency, just reinforces the fact that it doesn’t anyway. It’s a very unfruitful line for the No campaign to take.”

    Hmm… Isn’t No’s reason in making this point that twofold:
    (a) that in terms of currency, what Yes is offering Scotland is the worst of both worlds, neither genuine independence nor any influence at all in monetary policy; and
    (b) that the currency union issue is its strongest suit, just as political independence is Yes’s strongest suit. No HAS to bang on about it.

  3. Roger Mexico, the point of the bank bailout was to restart the banking sector, both retail and investment. It was an absolute necessity in order to rebuild the economy.

  4. Perhaps a good question for the pollsters to pose would be

    ‘There have been a series of critical reports on the subject of harm to children and authorities’ reaction to it. What confidence do you have that the damage to children from molesters and evil parents will be less in future?’.

    Answer choices would be ‘every’, ‘some’, ‘not much’ or ‘none’.

  5. @R&D
    Maybe Daisie’s two really but just doesn’t know it ‘cos she can’t count that far. She seems to have been OANY WON for ages.

    Nick Clegg’s jealous. He’s already counted to four and wishes he didn’t know how to count to five.

  6. PH
    Judging by the polls, it’s counting beyond eight, or his chickens with which NC has problems.

  7. @Phil H
    TOO, surely. Get it right.

    @Allan Christie
    Fact, not opinion: I have never seen a headline about rUK unemployment or GDP

  8. Howard and Phil,

    AW has Clegg on 9% ACTUALLY #WinningHere

  9. Mr N
    Extra numerical challenge for NC then. What comes after 9?

  10. Having experienced referendums elsewhere, I wonder if there isn’t a dynamic playing out in this poll. The Yes people are excited by the prospect of an independent Scotland, and the No voters are inherently afraid of it. So, when Darling does slightly worse than the previous time, the No people wince and say ‘yikes that was poor, we lost it’ and the Yes people shout ”you got him Alex!” and equally Salmond does a bit better and the No people say “oh god he really got us there” and the Yes people shout joyously “stamp on him!” I just doubt that the people watching at this point are making very balanced decisions about the debate and wonder whether a poll the next day wouldn’t have gleaned more considered views than an instant poll. Any thoughts?

  11. RICH-no I shouldn’t think so.

    Councillors, Police , Social workers -the whole gang will close ranks & hope it goes away.

    The victims won’t of course-ignored to keep the flag of MulitCulturalism flying.

  12. As a break from poles the good news is that Manchester United and Celtic are going out of their respective cups.

  13. Celtic HAVE NOW BEEN KNOCKED OUT OF THE SAME CUP TWICE.

    There’s an omen for you. [Dunno woyyoc though.]

    Phil H.

    Our Daisie has been OANY WON for nearly a year, a whole year being the precise passage of time required for her to become OANY TOO.

  14. @Rogerrebel

    4-0 vs the MK Dons must really hurt.

    But not for me – I support Leeds Utd :-)

  15. “woyyoc” is forrun for wottov – of course.

  16. What surprises me about the Scottish currency debate is that no one seems to regard an independent Scottish currency as a viable option. I’d have thought it was an essential item in a genuine nationalist’s wish-list, but instead Scotland’s aspiring national leader seems to be desperately hoping to hang on to another country’s currency, even without that country’s consent.

    So is this because Salmond would privately love to have an independent currency, but can’t say so for fear of frightening the electorate? And is there polling evidence to support this – ie has anyone asked Scottish voters what they think about a standalone currency? For what it’s worth, I think launching a Scottish pound, then managing it down to parity with the euro and locking it at that level would make Scotland super competitive (as long as inflation was kept down to rUK levels). Just think of all those Brits flocking over the border to do their cheap shopping!

  17. @ Catmanjeff

    Leeds Utd…… you’re playing my lot tomorrow night. Could be interesting!

  18. John – as Mrs McDuffy featuring Scottish Elections.

  19. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour has four-point lead. CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%

  20. @THISWILLHAVETODO

    I am sure that EM will think that will do very nicely. Welcome by the way.

  21. JohnKay,

    Yes a new currency is a viable option (in fact the only viable option). The problem is the nationalist leadership thought it would be unpopular with the voters so decided against this early on, and now they are stuck with that decision.

    You can see why it might be unpopular: salary and savings in the new currency, mortgage (with a UK bank) in sterling. Looks risky…

  22. The French reshuffle is very interesting (to me anyway). One confusing feature is that ‘ministers’ are higher up in function than ‘secretaries of state’. The new economics minister is married to a woman 20 years older, she being 56. She was his teacher in 6th form. This new cabinet has 8 of each gender. I can’t see that happening here in a hundred years.

  23. Johnkay

    “What surprises me about the Scottish currency debate is that no one seems to regard an independent Scottish currency as a viable option.”

    If that were the case it would, indeed, be surprising.

    But since that isn’t the case then there isn’t anything surprising in the currency debate.

    The Fiscal Commission Working Group considered an independent currency, and considered it perfectly viable. However, their first preference was to establish a currency union with rUK.The Scottish Government and the Yes campaign concurred with that.

    The First Minister confirmed last night that such was an option as one of the “3 Plan Bs”.

    In the event of a Yes vote, if the rUK insisted on keeping all of the assets and liabilities of the fUK (former UK) then an independent Scottish pound may turn out to be the preferred solution for a country which has no inherited debt and a large resource asset.

    However, that’s a decision for later, if it turns out to be necessary.

    I’m interested to know what you consider a “genuine nationalist” to be.

    It may well be that the SNP leadership, members and others who accept the term in a Scottish context are just “ersatz” nationalists in whatever definition that might be.

    I can’t see any of us caring much about that.

  24. @JohnKay @Hal

    I agree with Hal on the Yes campaigns reasoning regarding pound.

    I think they have decided plan B is short term sterlingisation then Scottish currency. If we can’t get the deal we want in a CU that’s what will happen. A CU would be long term. Either plan would work with B being my preferred.

    Tonight Johan Lamont followed Darling saying Scotland could use the pound. The point here is that Swinney was able to point to a leaflet where she says ‘We know the currency will not be the pound’. The politics is not whether plan B is any good but that Better Together have been lying to voters.

  25. @ALLAN CHRISTIE – If I was a Little Englander I wouldn’t be at all concerned that Scots could be making a historic mistake. I’d be saying “good riddance”.

    BTW, my arguments would be the same if it was Cornwall, Wessex , Mercia or the People’s Republic of Yorkshire deciding to secede.

    Perhaps I was a bit too blunt earlier about the failures that led Scotland to join the union 300 years ago.

    But it remains a fact that ALL parts of the union “joined up” because the perils of staying separate were painfully demonstrated to them – i.e. we all endured a Failure that showed we were un-viable on our own. And centuries later our little patches of the world are still un-viable on our own though the threats have shifted (globalization rather than Danish vikings).

    It remains true that safety and stability depends on being part of the larger political union that is the UK regardless of how much your romantic side is telling you that you can take on the world on your own.

  26. YouGov:

    LAB – 37% (-1)
    CON – 33% (=)
    UKIP – 13% (+1)
    LDEM – 8% (=)

  27. @Bantams

    Leeds to lose tomorrow, useless manager to be sacked by crazy owner, useless team to be relegated.

    And I’m an optimist !!

  28. @ Oldnat

    A genuine nationalist? To me, that’s someone who has a vision of what his/her country can achieve and become in independence, and doesn’t get bogged down in squabbles over short-term costs and benefits. I just don’t think Salmond is offering his people a vision.

    I don’t have any axe to grind in the debate, except that as a half-Norwegian I look back to Norway’s 1905 amicable separation from Sweden, which probably made no economic sense at the time. But you’d be hard pressed to find a single Norwegian now who regrets independence.

  29. Candy

    Your understanding of history is quaint – and rather endearing.

  30. JohnKay

    “His people”? You make that sound like he’s royalty ! :-) There’s lots of vision around about what an independent Scotland could be like – Common Weal : Greens : RIC : National Collective : SNP : Joseph Stiglitz.

    Haven’t you been listening?

  31. @Old Nat

    There wasn’t a lot of vision in last night’s debate. Or did I miss something?

  32. JohnKay

    If your entire comprehension of the discussion in Scotland is based on one debate between two politicians then you’ve missed virtually everything.

  33. Stockport Red, Chris Lane 1945, Rory McElroy, The Chuckle Brothers, Canon & Ball, your boys took a hell of a beating tonight!

    :-)

  34. @R&D – “Our Daisie has been OANY WON for nearly a year, a whole year being the precise passage of time required for her to become OANY TOO.”

    She’s a dog. That means she’ll be OANY FURTEEN.

  35. Oldnat – my understanding of “ancient” history comes from watching BBC documentaries, plus everything that happened before I was born is “history”.

    I’m on the south coast of Britain. I find it easier to understand a speaker from Edinburgh than someone from deepest darkest Yorkshire.

    And yet the Scot is thinking of breaking away while the Yorkshireman thinks of someone like me as a fellow citizen. It’s beyond bizarre.

    The differences WITHIN England can be greater than between some parts of England and some parts of Scotland. And yet England is happily hanging together, Why can’t the English and the Scots?

    I think some of you in the northern part of the isle have “imagined” yourself as separate regardless of whether you actually are, and whether it can really work out in practice.

    I think Yorkshire population 8 million, would be un-viable on their own, and Scotland population 4.8 million certainly is, as is Devon and Cornwall. Even that great metropolis London would struggle without the rest of us subsiding all their defences.

    We all need each other. Why is that so hard to accept?

  36. John Kay
    Except it wasn’t entirely amicable. The Swedish fleet went to sea in a vague threatening gesture until the Royal Navy also went to sea prompting an about turn. Norway remained very close to the UK with its currency often pegged to the pound.
    The Norwegians only broke with Swedish control of foreign and military affairs as their growing merchant navy needed UK access. The Norwegian currency pre-dated division with Sweden.

  37. Candy

    Try reading, as well as watching TV. It’s a really rewarding activity.

  38. Barney

    Thanks for that post. One of the good things about UKPR is when you read a post and think “I didn’t know that”.

  39. c2802
    No one has lied about people in Scotland being able to use the pound sterling as they could use the turkish lira or the norwegian krone. Just keeping shouting about lies doesn’t make it true. The key question as neutral niesr have explained is who is standing behind the currency. Watch the animation. A seperate Scotland will not be keeping the pound any more than turkey or norway will.

  40. Howard

    The French reshuffle is very interesting (to me anyway). […] The new economics minister is married to a woman 20 years older, she being 56. She was his teacher in 6th form. This new cabinet has 8 of each gender. I can’t see that happening here in a hundred years.

    Well Mrs Salmond is 16 years older than her spouse and was his boss originally. And four of the nine Scottish cabinet ministers are women.

    So they’re certainly attempting to keep up with the Auld Alliance.

  41. @Oldnat – “In the event of a Yes vote, if the rUK insisted on keeping all of the assets and liabilities of the fUK (former UK) then an independent Scottish pound may turn out to be the preferred solution for a country which has no inherited debt and a large resource asset.”

    The straw man rides again.

    I’m not aware of a single UK politician seeking to deny Scotland it’s share of assets. I’m 99.9% certain that the offer will be for a per capita split of foreign currency and gold reserves. After that, apart from the relatively minor real estate value of the BoE and 8.4% of Mark Carney, that’s it, as far as currency assets are concerned.

    Sterling itself isn’t an asset – it’s a currency system. Apart from the tangible assets which are held by the BoE, there isn’t anything to share. Think about it. If it’s possible to use sterling as a tradeable currency without UK permission, how can it be claimed as an asset to share? Anyone could use sterling, anywhere in the world. They just need to trade for it at market values.

    Suggesting sterling is an asset that can be allocated, implies it is owned by someone who can control it. If that were the case, then sterlingization wouldn’t be an option, as whoever owned sterling could stop you having it. You can’t have it both ways.

    This is why nationalist claims and threats are spurious and demonstrate a deep level of economic illiteracy.

    Scotland will keep it’s share of the assets, and will pay for it’s share of the debt. If it doesn’t, it will be cast adrift in a very cold and lonely place. Pretending otherwise is demeaning to Scots and Scotland future.

  42. Old Nat
    I could go on! Grammatically I should have made two sentences; that the Norwegians only broke with Swedish military and foreign policy control and also part of the reason for this was commercial maritime interests.
    The Swedish king resented the Norwegian move because he was the first to learn Norwegian!

  43. Oldnat – don’t be condescending. I read widely too!

    ELI5 why a Scot is more different from me than a Yorkshireman, and hence should be in a separate country.

  44. Alec
    Correct
    Except it seems more and more that is what the SNP intend. The bitterness factor is growing. I was at one of Jim Murphy’s street events today and the atmosphere was very threatening.

  45. alec

    I’m not buying them SECEN prezzies a year.

    |By the way, whilst I suppose not everybody wants to be as clever as ole nat you’d have to be mad not to want to be as clever as he thinks he is.

    Although even that is not quite on a par with the ole patronisation levels – which is probably as good as it gets.

  46. “SECEN” is – of course – Nordish-[ish] for seven.

    Anyway the gurls are teenagers but still rather sweet – not like proper ones who drink all the time and throw their beer bottles and cans into the lovely river at Barnard Castle.

    Personally I’d shoot them but apparently its illegal

  47. Candy

    Glad that you read. it’s just that you said your entire knowledge of history came from the BBC documentaries.

    Lots of books are about history too. Lots of them have different interpretations of past events.

    Barney reads lots of books about lots of things. While I may disagree about his interpretation of matters, his database of knowledge is very wide-ranging.

  48. ^^^ You haven’t explained why a Scot is more different to me than a Yorkshireman. Or don’t you know?

  49. RAF

    Hmm… Isn’t No’s reason in making this point that twofold:
    (a) that in terms of currency, what Yes is offering Scotland is the worst of both worlds, neither genuine independence nor any influence at all in monetary policy; and
    (b) that the currency union issue is its strongest suit, just as political independence is Yes’s strongest suit. No HAS to bang on about it.

    Well (a) is true, but my point is that it isn’t really different from the current situation. And to get round it, all they have to do is switch the offer. The pound isn’t an essential part of the case for independence – quite the opposite as you point out. Despite efforts to promote ‘keeping the pound’ as a cunning plan, I suspect it was meant as part of general reassurance to keep things the same. But it doesn’t then mean that it mightn’t end up being cunning and enable them to pick one of the plan Bs and blame the English if it goes wrong.

    That’s one of the reasons why choosing it as as No’s strongest point may backfire. The other is simply that people don’t care much. They suspect (probably correctly) that something will be worked out to the best advantage of both hypothetical states.

    Polling on this is revealing. YouGov asked If Scotland was to vote YES and become an independent country one of the issues that would need to be decided is what currency an independent Scotland would use. Which of the following would you most like to see?

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jvzzealgmj/Times_Scotland_Results_140815_Tuesday.pdf#page=4

    with the result:

    Currency union 45%

    ‘Substitution’ pound currency 8%

    Scottish currency 23%

    Euro 6%

    Now the interesting thing is that once you allow for the much higher level of ‘not sure’ among No voters (presumably they don’t want even to contemplate Yes winning), there is very little difference between Yes and No voters with regard to these options. So what people think doesn’t appear to influence how they will vote in the referendum.

  50. I thought Darling was rather weak last night. Why on earth – when Salmond began to accuse him of being alligned with the Tories – did he fail to mention the SNP’s role in helping to bring Thatcher to power in 1979 by bringing down the Callaghan Government on the No Confidence Vote.?

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