The snap ICM poll following the second Salmond-v-Darling debate shows a convincing win for Alex Salmond. 26% think Darling won the debate, 65% think Salmond did, 9% didn’t know. Tabs are here.

In the ICM poll following the first debate last month the large majority of existing YES voters thought Salmond won, the large majority of existing NO voters thought Darling won, don’t knows were pretty evenly split – hence a Darling victory. In second debate poll existing YES voters almost all thought Salmond won, only a bare majority of NO voters thought Darling did, the small number of don’t knows favoured Salmond – hence the Salmond victory.

Will it have any impact on voting intentions? Well, that’s a different question. Amongst the respondents in the survey there was no difference in the NO lead before the debate and the NO lead afterwards, but that doesn’t necessarily mean much. Remember that the instant verdict poll gave the first debate to Alistair Darling, yet of the four polls since the first debate only one showed significant movement toward NO, two showed modest movement toward YES, one showed significant movement toward YES. Instant reaction debate polls do their job of crowning a debate victor… but they don’t necessarily do a good job of predicting the impact.


303 Responses to “ICM show Salmond winning second debate”

1 5 6 7
  1. GRAHAM.
    Good Evening to you.
    A young Neil Kinnock campaigned against the Devolution Bill under Callaghan, who of course, had campaigned against Wilson, who himself had campaigned against Gaitskell, who had in turn undermined Nye Bevan with his budget. Nye opposed everyone.

    Report comment

  2. “Should scotland be an independent country” is a terrible terrible question. I don’t think it is at all clear. I would like to see a poll asking potential voters whether a yes vote is a vote to leave the uk or not. Is it? I think it is, but I bet we would be AMAZED at how many yes voters think the opposite. After a yes vote witll scotland still be a part of A United Kingdom? The SNP would say yes as they intend to ‘retain’ the monarchy, but they haven’t seriously thought about it. Will scotland still be part of THE United Kingdom? SNP would probably say no. Do scots get to keep their uk passports SNP would probably argue yes which is an absurd answer but there you go. Will these passports be renewed when they expire? I would hope not ( unless rUK citizens have the right to have a scottish passport too). Great Britain is england scotland and wales. After a yes vote, would scotland leave Great Britain? I would argue not, but great britain is not legally an actual country. It is an almighty mess.The question should have been “should scotland leave the United Kingdom” ignoring the queen for a moment, that is the name of the country that scotland is currently part of and that should be the clear result of a yes vote. The question we have is LOADED.

    Report comment

1 5 6 7