I’ll be back blogging properly after the weekend, but for now here is the weekly YouGov/Sunday Times poll. Topline voting intention figures are CON 34%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%.

There is now clearly more support than opposition for the RAF taking part in air strikes against Islamic State/ISIS – 45% support Britsish air strikes, 31% are opposed. There is a pretty even split over supplying arms to Kurdish forces, 37% support the the idea, 39% are opposed.


201 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 34, LAB 36, LD 8, UKIP 14”

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  1. Bit like Comres this time.

  2. I just didn’t want to write what the first person usually writes. As long as Lab is one point on the lead, it doesn’t really matter what anyone else scores -they’re home and dry.

  3. The fact that these last two polls here will largely be seen as business as usual show how far the political situation has changed over the last couple of years.

    Con so close to Lab would have been a source of much comment. As would LD under 10% and Ukip over 10%. The debate as to whether we are in an era of four party politics is a distant memory. Now the debate is whether we are returning to an era of three party politics with a new third party. IMO the final nail in the LD coffin would be Ukip membership figures exceeding theirs. We aren’t at that point yet, but that is the direction of travel.

    Yougov have yet to catch up with this new reality in their prompting.

  4. It’s 50 years since someone won an election outright with a 1% lead in the popular vote. Since then, oftentimes we’ve had one very popular leader vs a pretty unpopular one, and, um, 2 & 1/2 party politics, which has tended to ensure the winner must be further ahead to claim a majority.

    And now we back where we were, but the causes are different.

  5. Except there is likely to be a Coalition Gov’t, probably with Labour as the largest party supplemented with Lib Dem.

  6. NIGEL.
    Good Afternoon to you.
    The Tories have normally increased their percentage vote considerably over the last nine months of a Government.

    I think if Tony Blair returns to the UK, and joins the Labour Party and then becomes leader, then the Labour Party will have a chance of appealing to outside its core vote.

  7. @Anthony

    Can you or any other informed contributor in your absence explain why the poll says it is based on 1866 interviewees but the weighting figures on the last page add up to just 460?

  8. @ Chrislane

    “I think if Tony Blair returns to the UK, and joins the Labour Party and then becomes leader, then the Labour Party will have a chance of appealing to outside its core vote.”

    I don’t actually think it would increase Labour share of vote. I suspect the former rightish Lab voters would not yet return as they still blame Labour for the financial crisis (there are still high opinion poll figures suggesting that) and who to blame if that isn’t Blair?.

    I also think it would put at risk the conversion of Red Dems and left leaning “core vote” who stopped voting Labour during the Blair years. I could probably name about 5 or 10 Labour pledges on this forum who (including myself) who would not be voting for a Blair led Labour Party.

    I doubt the information exists but it would be interesting to know whether some of these Red Dem Labour converts date back well before the 1997 election- meaning these are votes Blair failed to have even in that landslide year.

  9. Shevii

    Why are you even bothering?
    We all know it’s just CL’s pipe dream !
    Even CL.

  10. EWEN LIGHTFOOT.
    ‘And the young men have visions and the old men have dreams’ (Joel, quoted by Peter, in Acts I think).

    I do have a dream, EWEN.

    KEITH P.
    Yes. I think we will be in 1964 territory with similar numbers.
    The difference is the Blues will be ahead.

    MR BEESWAX:
    Mr Simon Hughes, of Bermondsey will be one of the LD MP’s, IMO;

  11. @chris lane

    “The Tories have normally increased their percentage vote considerably over the last nine months of a Government”

    Every government? Or when they were last in government?

    If its the last – then thats a very long time ago to say “normally” and it based on the behavoiur of ‘swing voters’ going form tory to labour and back again. This is NOT whats happening in this parliament.

    To all those predicting possible tory victory – if you are predicting a tory vote share of over 36% you are expecting that the tories are not going to lose any votes to UKIP since 2010 and/or to have gained voters from labour and libdem since then. Is that credible? Labour will surely do better than their 29% in 2010 – plus they have that big chunk of red-dems.

    This has been argued to death on these boards and it mystifies me that several poster – and indeed commentators – keep on reaching for their 1992 versions of voter behaviour and ignoring the completely different situation we have now.

    Anyway – lets change the record. What do folks think the poll would look like if the tories had got an OM in 2010?

    I think Tory VI would be about the same.
    UKIP would be a bit less – maybe under ten cos they wouldn’t have the former lib dem “plague on both their houses” vote.
    Lib Dems on around 20%
    Labour – low thirties.
    That would be looking very tight and on course for another hung parliament.

  12. polls not poll.

    I am going to vote for whichever party vows to introduce an edit function to these boards.

    Unless its the lib dems.

  13. Should Parliament change the law to give the Government the power to remove British citizenship from people who were born in Britain and have no other nationality, when they fight for forces such as Islamic State/ISIS?
    ————-
    This is a rather strange YG question, given that it’s not possible to do this and comply with international law.

  14. REGGIESIDE

    @” to have gained voters from labour and libdem since then.. Is that credible?”

    Well it is if you believe YouGov Polls.

    This mornings shows they have gained a net 3%pts of VI from LD & Lab 2010 iders.
    It also shows they have lost 5% pts of VI to UKIP………….and still show 34% VI

  15. ChrisLane
    I have a sort of theory about your sometimes counter factual prognostications, which is that, as a Labour supporter, if you predict Lab NOT getting an OM, then they will !
    This is backed up by your predicting S Hughes will be re-elected, cos I KNOW you loathe him.

    I rest my case

  16. Reggieside.

    If the Tories had won outright with a small majority in 2010, and Labour had elected EM as leader, I reckon the figures today would be something like

    Con 36
    Lab 23
    LD 38

    The Tories would have tacked further right, consolidating their right flank. But they’d have been no more successful on the economy, and would have no lightning conductor on this topic.

    Labour would have utterly drown, bereft of a coherent economic policy to take on the Govt and they would have descended into open civil war.

    Clegg would never have had his Damascene (or, more accurately, Athenian) conversion on the need for Austerity Now, and would have been genuinely able to play the “pox on both your neo-liberal economic and social houses” card loudly and consistently, mopping up the centre left and disillusioned centre-right.

  17. Tony Blair would be a poisoned chalice to the Labour Party, or any other party for that matter. His star has fallen so low, although I knew he was a charlatan from the outset, and voted Conservative in 1997 with more conviction than ever, and have subsequently been vindicated.

    Would Blair (like Miliband) have opposed Cameron’s decision for air strikes against Assad’s Syria therefore unwittingly aiding the forces of iSIS?

    i rest my case.

  18. @Amberstar

    Given that the Tories want to withdraw from the ECHR perhaps they intend to withdraw from all international agreements,

    We can only speculate.

  19. “The debate as to whether we are in an era of four party politics is a distant memory. Now the debate is whether we are returning to an era of three party politics with a new third party. IMO the final nail in the LD coffin would be Ukip membership figures exceeding theirs. We aren’t at that point yet, but that is the direction of travel.”

    Slow down a minute.

    No-one, and I mean absolutely no-one, is talking about the LDs ending up with fewer MPs than fingers, either in 2015 or subsequently. And no-one, not even Farage, is talking about UKIP getting more than that amount in 2015.

    Completely agree that the direction of travel for the LDs is grim and for UKIP equally exciting, but the reality of FPTP means that we are still firmly in the era of debating whether 2015 will represent the dawn of four party politics, however likely it is that UKIP will get more votes.

  20. Nigel
    Hello.
    You say “unwittingly” aiding ISIS, now I would never suggest that a British Govt of whatever stripe would side with such vile religious zealots, however they are the bl**dy Govt, and therefore should have been much more circumspect.
    Thank The Lord for Ed the Geek say I !

  21. @Reggieside

    “This has been argued to death on these boards and it mystifies me that several poster – and indeed commentators – keep on reaching for their 1992 versions of voter behaviour and ignoring the completely different situation we have now.”

    Amen to all that. 1992 was very nearly a quarter of a century ago and UK politics, not to mention the composition of the electorate, is now in a very different place

    Rawnsley was good in the Observer today. Not all will agree with his analysis, but his piece is worth a read, especially for those closely following events in the Middle East and judging how the Government is reacting to them.

  22. The talk about Mr Blair is reminiscent of talk about Thatcher in the 1990’s after her defenestration and similar talk about Heath post 1975 after his. Wilson was seen as tainted goods by Labour after 1979 but successful Labour leaders in particular I suspect are doomed to disappoint their party in one way or another.

    we are where we are and given the Scits look now most likely to say know – acts of God fore-fending – our choice for good or ill will be between Mr Cameron Mr Miliband and Mr Clegg. I am supposing we all might choose one over the other or two perhaps but in the end it is most likely that we are all at best engaged in metaphysical speculations since this is the first time a stable coalition has gone full five years in our lifetimes. Previous history of how governments fare may be a good guide or no guide. I would think we should be cautious in thinking the electorate will give the benefit to the Conservatives and the doubt to the LibDems. It coulds be the result will mirror last time exactly – in which case there will be another Con/LibDEm government – but somehow it doesn’t feel like that and look like that from the polling evidence we have.

    I do not think the past will be a guyide to the future in a straightforward way and a hung parliament still looks most likely since it seems the public has not changed its mind that much about the Conservatives. How much it has changed its mind about Labour, LibDems and UKIP is the question and frankly I cannot answer it. I can only guess. In all this perhaps EM’s notion that the electors feel worse off in the places that matter to Labour may be shrewder than I thought when he found the Energy freeze last autumn. Perhaps the instability in the middle East will make voters cling to nurse for fear of something worse.

  23. I just go by the results, not speculation. Look at the average position for August, supposedly a rightish month poll-wise, and tell me I’ve got it wrong. We have not even had a crossover on YG and the average difference is clear red sea.

  24. @ Crossbat

    I’m not sure if Anthony has now included your bath time experiences in the list of topics not open for discussion on these boards. I imagine after 2 x two point leads this morning, tonight’s may be a tepid affair washing the grime off from an unfulfilled weekend with a rather flat left over bottle of plonk from Friday night, sat there contemplating Monday morning and another week of polldrums!

  25. @SHEVII

    Do not think there is a poll from You Gov tonight because of the Bank Holiday and I am not sure but I do not think the Populus poll will not be published until Tuesday.

  26. Sorry “will not” should be will – no edit button

  27. All this whining about no edit button… has nobody here heard of Tipp-ex?

  28. Talking of such things, apparently some nationalists are encouraging the use of pens in polling booths, so that the counters can’t change Aye votes to Naw.

  29. It seems to me that a problem for all of us is that we are obsessed by the ‘headline figure;. This is difficult to interpret because it is a) a long way from the election and probably not very predictive b) subject to margin of error (and particularly so when we are talking of differences between percentages) c) rarely very responsive to events (with the occasional exception like the omni-shambles). And there are the additional complications that the informed don’t like cross-breaks, while questions about leadership etc are so tied to party allegiance that it is difficult to tell which is chicken and which is egg.

    Curiously there are other sources of evidence (focus groups, trends on social media and so on) which might supplement the polling evidence and give a deeper understanding of what may underlie the figures. These don’t seem to be much discussed. Is this because the information is not available, or it is considered unreliable or it is simply hard to get hold of?

  30. @CHRISHORNET

    No-one, and I mean absolutely no-one, is talking about the LDs ending up with fewer MPs than fingers, either in 2015 or subsequently.’

    Oh I think that is over-confidence if you are going beyond 2015 then I’d throw my hat in the ring on that one.

    ‘And no-one, not even Farage, is talking about UKIP getting more than that amount in 2015.’

    They are you know, they may not be right, but they are. (I’d currently go for eight)

    ‘Completely agree that the direction of travel for the LDs is grim and for UKIP equally exciting, but the reality of FPTP means that we are still firmly in the era of debating whether 2015 will represent the dawn of four party politics, however likely it is that UKIP will get more votes.’

    Agree with you there. I suppose I’m looking at the medium term, by which I mean the election after next. Imo it is far from impossible that Ukip win that one – though most would disagree.

    As to the next election it is far from fanciful to imagine Ukip or the LibDems holding the balance of power. If the gap between Lab and Con is small enough – and it looks like it might be, then it’s fun and games all round.

    There are other permutations of course, in fact it’s all rather exciting.

  31. Good Evening All.

    JOHN MURPHY
    A very fine post, thank you.

    EWENLIGHTFOOT.
    I said that I would be very sad if Simon Hughes of Bermondsey were to suffer defeat. I hope partisanship does not get me moderated. It is a holiday .

  32. Survation Pensioner indyref poll.

    Haven’t seen the tables yet (and it’ll be interesting to see the weightings employed for different age groups/demographics in an internet panel poll with this age group), but the Yes/No/Undecided by age groups were –

    60-64 : Yes 38% No 46% Undecided 16%
    65-74 : Yes 29% No 57% Undecided 14%
    75+ : Yes 31% No 66% Undecided 3%.

  33. CL
    Well certs that kindly sentiment towards Mr Hughes seems to be in direct contradiction to what you posted on Friday, as Colin challenged you about !
    Are you drunk ?
    Still, it is indeed a holiday.
    Pax vobiscum.

  34. In all the thousands of comments, many of which I find informative and/or amusing, one big word seems hardly ever to be mentioned – swing. In 2010, the Tories got 36.1% and Labour 29.0%. So if both parties were to poll, say, 34% each in 2015, that would be a swing to Labour of about 3.5% (with all the usual caveats). Even if the Tories got a couple more points than Labour, it would still be a swing to Labour since 2010. Given how few months since 2010 the Tories have been ahead of Labour in the polls, how can any rational person doubt – barring some exceptionally large political clangers, coups or scandals – that Labour will at least win the most seats in 2015 if not, more likely, have an overall majority? I would say this even if I weren’t Ed’s fourth cousin twice removed.

  35. EWENLIGHTFOOT:
    Not drunk.
    Et cum spiritu tuo.

    POINTER.
    I think Cons will increase vote share, and so will Lab.

    I think the Con popular vote will be above Labour.

  36. Pointer

    “Twice removed” means separated by two generations – so are you are very old, or very young?

  37. God knows.

    Cons more than 36%? With even bigger UKIP share than in 2010?

    Labour should get around 34-36%.

    OLD NAT – God knows!

  38. The hope for the Tories, Pointer, is:

    Currently polls ask who would you vote for if there was a general election tomorrow. Which is a daft question given there won’t be one. When the question is who will you actually vote for in the actual election, we might get a different answer.

    The hope of a last minute reprieve as in 1992 :-)

    There is some evidence of the Tory vote being understated, the YouGov figures do not yet factor in likeliness to vote.

    A substantial reduction in LibDem seats should, all things being equal, (which they won’t be) benefit the Tories more on the basis they are in second place in more of them.

    The Tories lead Labour on The Economy and Leader which will be v important issues when people actually vote.

    There will be an incumbency benefit, both in individual seats and people don’t like change so may not want to change government when push comes to shove…better the devil you know.

    Millibands issues are not properly factored into the Labour VI.

    UKIP supporters will come to their senses and do he decent thing :-)

    All of the above would seem more credible if there was a stronger reduction in the Labour lead. The longer Labour stay in a lead of course the more it seams likely they will get he most seats. :-)

    I did think we had stopped swinging, and settled into long term polldrums.

  39. Talk of The Blessed Tony returning to sweep Labour to power is seriously misguided, in my view. Apart from the collapse of the entire neocon foreign policy framework in an orgy of disorganised ethnic bloodletting in those many middle eastern states we liberated, or wished to, there’s also the small matter of the complete failure of the 1980’s free market settlement that TB adhered to. Perhaps we could inscribe on his grave ‘buried with a light touch of regulation’.

    More prosaically perhaps, there is the fact that leaders – even great leaders – are of their time. Once that time has passed, so the aura of greatness evaporates. Churchill should have let it rest in 1945, and wasn’t a great PM from 51-55.

    Thatcher was thrown out by her own party, quite correctly, in terms of electoral dynamics, as she had outlived her purpose – her age had passed.

    As with Blair. His vague notions of decency in social and domestic policy, wrapped up with an adherence to global market principles and a muscular projection of what is ‘good’ in foreign policy are now all tainted, and outdated.

    He might still communicate a message clearly and impressively, but the message would be stale and tired.

  40. Alec

    Common sense analysis will not move some people.

  41. Mr Beeswax

    I would suggest that Ukip’s medium term future will be heavily dependent on finding a successful successor to Farage. He is a difficult act to follow.

  42. @Jamie – “Millibands issues are not properly factored into the Labour VI.”

    What evidence do you have for this?

    “A substantial reduction in LibDem seats should, all things being equal, (which they won’t be) benefit the Tories more on the basis they are in second place in more of them.”

    Have you visited Eastleigh recently?

    “The Tories lead Labour on The Economy and Leader which will be v important issues when people actually vote.”

    True, but bear in mind that consumer confidence has been falling for several months now, with evidence that the recovery is easing back, and household disposable incomes falling sharply. Don’t assume the economy will be the key factor.

    We all see what we want to see, which is the main reason we have opinion polls. Although unfortunately, we then only see the opinion polls we wish to see.

  43. Pointer

    Not that I think you were making an accurate description of your relationship to Labour royalty! :-)

    but “4th cousin” means that one of your great, great grandparents was a sibling of one of Miliband’s great, great grandparents.

    “Twice removed” would mean that either Miliband or you (but not both) is two generations further down the line from those siblings.

    You might be more closely related to Nick Clegg!

  44. Old Nat

    How genealogically erudite are our contributors! And, verily, are we not all children of ‘Adam’.

    ……………

    Back to swing, is not all we can do is talk about ‘uniform national swing’ (too many ises?)? God knows how people, esp. LDs and more esp. Kippers will actually vote next May.

    All I know is that, despite all the egregious lies about ‘the mess they left us in’ and the tittle-tattle about EM’s personality, Labour’s VI is between 5 and 9 points higher than their vote in 2010. Meanwhile, the average standard of living falls further and further behind what it was in 2007-8.

    Common sense and basic arithmetic suggests …

  45. Anthony has updated the polling average. Labour +12 seats, on UNS, compared to before the update.

    Does that mean the swing-back has turned into back-swing? ;-)

  46. AMBER STAR “Labour +12 seats, on UNS, compared to before the update.”

    Please translate.

  47. Occasionally, folk like Alec post some activity from the No campaign that they think will be influential in the indyref.

    On my side, folk post some activity from the Yes side that they think will be influential in the indyref.

    Much of both of those probably amount to things which will reinforce the views of those already committed to one side or the other, but which just might move some Undecideds further in the direction that they are already leaning.

    I doubt that the announcement by 30 Kirk ministers that they are supporting Yes to promote “a more socially just Scotland and rid the country of nuclear weapons.” will have any greater effect than other such pronouncements on both sides.

    However, for students of media reporting, this BBC coverage is interesting.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-28917877

    Conventionally, the story is carried at the beginning of the story, and the partisan views of the political campaigns at the end.

    The placement of the 4th paragraph is intriguing from an organisation that is required to be neutral in the campaign.

    Will it make any difference? I doubt it, though reporting in such a way may cause the BBC in Scotland some problems in the future.

  48. Pointer

    Well, we are certainly all the progeny of “African Eve”.

    An originating Adam may simply be a male misogyny myth that we are somehow more than one of the available drones selected by females to carry out their biological function of continuing the species.

  49. @ Pointer

    Latest UNS Projection (at the top right-hand corner of your screen) shows Labour with a 44 seat majority.

    The 44 seat majority is based on the UKPR (Anthony’s) weighted average of recent polls, which has Con on 33 & Lab on 37 (which can also be found top right).

    The previous average had Labour with a 32 seat majority; so recent polls have shown a little uptick for the ‘red’ team.

    And apologies that my ‘short-hand’ comment was rather difficult for newcomers to decipher!

  50. Amber, you’re a star. I just had to be sure.

    None so blind … the UNS figure is always the first thing I look at, providing it’s the right colour. (I find the BBC Election Calculator great fun, too.)

    …………………….

    Old Nat, I see you’re also into anthropology and mythology. Excellent.

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