The monthly ComRes poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror is out tonight. Topline figures with changes from their previous online poll are CON 32%(+1), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 18%(+1): no significant change from a month ago.

ComRes also did a batch of favourable or unfavourable questions. As usual no one actually got a positive rating – the least unfavourable was David Cameron (minus 18), followed by Nigel Farage (minus 21), Ed Miliband (minus 34) and Nick Clegg (minus 43). For the political parties the Conservatives and Labour were both on minus 16, UKIP were on minus 19, the Liberal Democrats on minus 40.

Having the Conservative party and Labour party viewed equally unfavourably is unusual. Whatever the ups and downs of day-to-day politics, the Labour party is normally seen more positively than the Conservative people (people see Labour as having it’s heart in the right place in a way the Tory party doesn’t). As ever, it’s just one poll so unless other polls start showing the same I wouldn’t get too excited.


46 Responses to “ComRes/Indy on Sunday – CON 32, LAB 34, LD 8, UKIP 18”

  1. First?

  2. Yes indeed, same old same old ,I’ m looking forward to tonight’s YouGov, will it be another 38 ,or maybe higher for the Reds ?

  3. Good Evening EWENLIGHTFOOT.
    Pax.

    Looks like a dead heat, defacto. IMO.

    In 2010 GE the Nationalist and NI parties, Respect and Greens picked up 28 Seats.

    Thus I think Reds and Blues can look forward to picking up equal shares of about 610 seats to 620 seats.
    It will be a close finish.

  4. Another poll that puts the Labour/Tory aggregate at way below 70%. In fact, if you exclude YouGov and Populus, they all do, and consistently so. I’m inclined to go with the majority.

    I’ve been spending my weekend as I usually do, indulging my various sporting obsessions, running, cycling and watching football and cricket, so I haven’t ventured too deeply into UKPR for the last 24 hours or so. I glanced at the last thread and saw a rather elongated discussion about some strange concept called the “Slow Death of the Tory Party.” Who started this parody of a discussion, I don’t know, but it derailed a serious argument about why the Tories weren’t doing better in the polls and why they’d neither won a General Election for a quarter of a century nor exceeded 40% in a national election in that time either. What “slow death” has to do with this argument, I simply have no idea. Decline, maybe, serious electoral challenges quite probably. Death? Silly parody of a serious subject.

    The electoral difficulties that beset the Conservatives set in some time ago and pre-date the emergence of UKIP as a serious player so I’m baffled by these arithmetic contortions that suggest that if the Tories “hadn’t lost 6-7% to UKIP” they’d be on 40%. Really? How so? They got 36% of the vote in 2010 at a time when UKIP got little over 2% and Labour, after 13 years in office, got their second ever lowest vote share. If 40% wasn’t attainable then I rather suspect it may not be again.

    It’s also interesting to look at polls earlier in the Parliament when UKIP were scoring about 6%. The Tories were polling about what they are now; mid 30s. UKIP voters may well be predominantly right wing, but they’re not people likely to support the Tories in elections. If they were, they’d have done so before and there’s no evidence that they have; hence the Tories polling 31, 32, 33 and 36 in the last four General Elections.

    Hang on, I’m missing something here, aren’t I? 31, 32. 33. 36. That’s not death, that’s resurrection!

    :-)

  5. Pax to you too CL, fellow pedagogue!

    CB Have you been following what’s been happening to poor old Hereford Utd , my team and erstwhile derby mates of the Harriers…maybe David Icke could try some cosmic intervention for his old team?

  6. @CL1945

    Forgive me if I do not get some in-joke, but why are you constaantly repeating Kellner;s latest GE prediction?

    Also do you not think in this latest poll the Libdems look a little high for you prediction to become fact.?

  7. toonie

    Join the “don’t get it” club.

    Not sure of the point of such obviously irrationally precise statements.

    The truth is that nobody knows although I think history, logic and analysis do suggest a Labour majority unless something quite remarkable happens.

    The benefit of being THE PM begins to wear off during a campaign in which both main leaders are aiming to become the NEXT PM.

    EM will get equal airtime: some may think that will be bad but I doubt it very much.

  8. ROSIE and DAISIE.
    I agree with you.

  9. cl45

    About what? Your posts??

  10. @Ewen L

    “CB Have you been following what’s been happening to poor old Hereford Utd , my team and erstwhile derby mates of the Harriers…maybe David Icke could try some cosmic intervention for his old team?”

    Ah, the dear old Bulls, now sadly hanging by a thread, threatened as they are by winding up orders and their fate largely in the hands of bent businessmen. Grand old club and I once watched the great John Charles, in his twilight years, playing at Edgar Street in the mid 60s when they were a Southern League club. Saw their only away win in their one season in the old Second Division (now Championship), circa 1975 at Eastville. Beat Rovers 3-2; Dixie McNeill hat trick. They never scaled those lofty heights again, alas. Also saw them play Harriers in the Conference in the late 90s. New Years Day derby at Aggborough. Packed to the rafters with 4,500 crammed inside. Bulls won 4-1, I think.

    Now their derby will be against Worcestershire’s premier football team on August Bank Holiday. Bulls v the great Redditch Utd at Edgar Street this Monday in the Calor Southern League, the 7th tier of English football. What must Ronnie Radford and Ricky George be thinking, Ewen?

  11. Jumpers for goalposts, hmmm, those were the days.

  12. “Jumpers for goalposts, hmmm, those were the days.”

    Footballers had A Levels too in those days.

    :-)

  13. No they didn’t. They were plumbers.

  14. Alec

    Depends on what kind of football they played.

  15. Some of them even taught A-level, back when that paid better than pro-footie.

  16. Is that a bit testy then, Kidderminister v Hereford?

  17. I don’t know what things were like in the days of Ronnie Radford (all I know of him was that long range strike against Newcastle they always show on the BBC when the FA Cup rolls into town).

    I do know that Shaka Hislop, a goalkeeper for Newcastle amongst others in the 90s, was an astrophysicist.

  18. Iain Dowie had a masters in engineering and for a while worked in the aerospace sector.

    At the other end of the spectrum, Pat Nevin became known as “The Professor” because he would read books in the changing room.

    Desperately sad to see what’s happening to the Bulls and clubs in similar positions, especially given that in football terms relatively small sums of money are involved. I hope you can take some small comfort from the phoenix runs of clubs like Wimbledon, Halifax and Chester.

    The unfavourable party one should ring alarm bells for the LDs. I know that sounds a strange thing to say for a party which is going to take one heck of a beating in May 2015, but if they’re polling 8%, one would have to assume that (according to this poll) 48% would not vote for them under any circumstances in 2015, even if that meant the big party they were least inclined towards getting in.

  19. For those of you who doubt the intellectual prowess of association footballers , might I recommend a marvellous little oddity of a book , ‘ How Steeple Sinderby Wanderers won the F. A. Cup ‘ by J.L. Carr, Hereford Utd get a namecheck in it.

  20. Amidst all this angst about the football that today’s pensioners might have watched – oh, for a poll!

    Actually Survation have an indyref poll of Scotland’s pensioners reported in tomorrow’s Sunday Post.

    Survation did post a link to the tables – but it didn’t work (which might be appropriate for an age group no longer in paid employment).

  21. Today’s Yougov

    Lab 36
    Con 34
    UKIP 14
    Lib Dem 8
    Green 5
    Others 0

  22. RAF
    “I do know that Shaka Hislop, a goalkeeper for Newcastle amongst others in the 90s, was an astrophysicist.”

    He could reach the cross-bar then?

    COLIN
    Anent (somebody actually used that word here a thread or three back: I thought it had been patented by Frankie Howerd writing to his laundry – “Anent yours of the second instance regarding my irreparably damaged hessian shirt..”
    Anent our discussion of the stability of poor countries under one party and autocratic states, I checked the unemployment rates for the three countries of which I have experience and which might qualify, Pakistan, Cambodia and Laos. In all three cases they take employed to mean industrial or urban, since they assume, with some justification, that all the rural, farming population are fully employed (or they’ld starve). Respectively they are for 2013: 5.3, 0.1, and 1.2 (World Bank and National Statistical Institutes). Taking a pinch of salt for the Cambodia figure (the NIS average for 1994 to 2012 was 1.3, and the figure for 2013 is attributed to the very high enrolment in the garment industry, about 500,000 workers in a total population of 15m.) , the reasons for these low formal unemployment rates are mainly to do with the high level of informal employment and the lack of social security for anyone who doesn’t work, so they have some credibility as indicators of social stability in a context of very low income, mainly rural, societies. Syria’s 2013 figure is around 18% rising from 14% from a year before, and reflects a much higher urban population and industrial or service sector, impacted directly by the largely urban conflict.
    I stick with my argument, that populations in autocratic states, even those in extreme civil conflict, unless physically uprooted, tend to maintain stable rural societies, since they can’t afford to do other than survive and maintain livelihoods systems and family and community life “below the radar”. One of the reasons why they states continue to be autocratic is that they don’t have the means to actively administer their mainly rural populations, so devolve to local village councils and headmen. Roads, water supply and irrigation systems matter; democracy and politics of any kind are otherwise remote and urban luxuries.

  23. “these states”

  24. Labour lead at 2

    Latest YouGov / Sunday Times results 22nd August – Lab 36%, Con 34%, UKIP 14%, LD 8%, Greens 5%, Nats 3% ; APP -21

    Slightly lower Lab lead than usual, but the cross breaks are what we have come to expect.

    I still think the Lab lead is 3% to 5%. There are 2 polls with 2% leads now, but on Friday there were 2 polls with 5% and 6% leads.

    All the economic indicator questions continue to drop slowly

    Example

    How do you think the financial situation of your household will change over the next 12 months? -19% (down 2) better 17% worse 36%

  25. Good Morning All.

    Very very close call now, as summer days drift away.

  26. @CL 45

    I disagree – NO are likely to win by a country mile.

    The Survation/Sunday Post poll of Scottish pensioners referendum voting intention, referred to above, had figures of:
    Yes – 33%
    No – 55%
    Undecided – 13%

    Excluding DKs, this is 37% YES, 63% NO. Pensioners are the group most likely to vote, and are more likely than others to do so by post. Given that postal voting is imminent, there is now no time for the YES campaign (holed below the waterline by AD) to change their minds.

    As for the 2015 GE, even a lead of 2% for Labour gives them an OM. They won’t be losing their 40+ Scottish seats following a NO vote, and the SNP (which is likely to suffer major infighting) will be seen as an irrelevance for Westminster.

    Using the latest YouGov poll, Electoral Calculus gives a seat distribution of 335 Lab, 273 Con, Odds&Sods 42 (including 18 NI). Using the ComRes poll that is the subject of this thread, the figures are 337 Lab, 267 Con, Others 46 (including 18 NI).

  27. Why no reporting of recent YouGov polls results ?

  28. @CL1945 – “Very very close call now, as summer days drift away.”

    I think previously you regularly suggested a Tory win.

    Is this what we mean by ‘swingback’?

  29. Looks like a de facto dead heat to me with Lab and Cons, bizarrely, sharing an odd number of MPs.

    Perhaps 298 and a half each is about as close as I can predict at this stage.

  30. There seems to be an assumption by some on this site that Con will regain ground from UKIP by the time of the GE. Ashcroft and others have shown that the majority of UKIP’s increased support comes from other parties or previous non-voters.

    While UKIP’s support may diminish by the GE, possibly more so in marginals, this is unlikely to provide much help to the Tories. Assuming that there is a NO vote on 18/9/14, I don’t envisage Con being the largest party in terms of seats at the 2015 GE.

  31. DAODAO

    Ashcrofts marginals Poll showed the UKIP vote made up as follows :-
    2010ers
    Con 25%
    Lab 14%
    LD 9%
    2010 UKIP +DNV52%

    This morning’s You Gov Poll shows a different set of numbers :-
    2010ers
    Con 39%
    Lab 9%
    LD 28%
    2010 UKIP + DNV 24%

    Clearly some difference there-whether it is Marginals vs National poll, or Ashcroft vs You Gov methodology-who knows.

    On the YG Poll this morning, Con 2010 defectors to UKIP represent 5% to 6% of VI.

  32. JOHN PILGRIM

    Thanks-most interesting.

    Lovely word :-)

  33. Ed Balls has mischievously jumped into the referendum debate this morning, suggesting joining the Euro would be Scotland’s least worst option.

    In the Telegraph, there is yet another story about how wind farms get paid to shut down. I remain surprised at the high level of public support wind power still attracts in opinion polls, despite some pretty relentless media campaigning against.

    This morning’s story is about ‘constraint payments’, which pay suppliers to switch off generation in times of excess production. We often hear about the millions paid to wind farms, but rarely if ever is it reported that wind power gets just 10% of these payments, with 90% going to conventional generators.

    However, as wind equates to just 5% of total capacity, this is disproportionate, but it readily explained by the National Grid. Wind is much easier to switch off, and is therefore a cheaper option to target in excess capacity events. We could reduce constraints payments to wind farms, but this would cost bill payers more.

    Things they never tell you.

  34. Colin: not surprising to me that those contacted via a telephone poll had a much higher proportion of DNV than those who have signed up to YouGov.

    The particularly large disparity between LD figures can be explained by the fact that Ashcroft’s marginal polls tend to be seats in which the LDs did not have a huge share to begin with.

    Finally, I’d caution over assuming that Labour’s figures are representative of the proportion of UKIP VI that is Labour-leaning, bearing in mind Labour’s drop in share and overall number of votes at every election between 1997 and 2010. Some of the difference will have gone Lab–>LD–>UKIP, but equally some of that will be Lab—>DNV/Other—>UKIP.

  35. All quiet on the political front. The pebbles (rocks?), will dropped in the pond in a few weeks time and the ripples will be felt for months if not years to come.

  36. Apologies for leaving out the Nats where I reported the Yougov figures above!

  37. It’s true that the economic confidence polling is dropping back again – but important to note that when polled on it people still tend to blame the last Labour govt for the country’s difficulties.

  38. Interested in the Survation poll on Scottish pensions. I find it odd, but fairly typical of voters to misunderstand the critical issues.

    As far as I can assess the situation, the real issue around independent Scotland’s pensions should really worry the younger age groups a lot more, as it’s the faster aging population that represents the big risk in the future. If demographics remain the same, the more time passes, the bigger the pension risks are. Current pensioners would be the least at risk group, but because they clearly have pension incomes firmly in mind, they seem to be the most worried.

    I think it’s the bland assertions by the SNP that pensions will get better represent a political risk, and if it’s true that trust in the SNP is falling, and rising in their opponents, then I think they may have some difficulties.

  39. @RosieandDaisie

    “Perhaps 298 and a half each is about as close as I can predict at this stage.”

    I agree although the two halves will be interesting. I see big BoJo as one half, spending 50% of his time on Mayoral and TV game shows, but who do you think the Labour half could be? Maybe someone filling in for Johnson when he’s not being able to perform his MP duties. A sort of parliamentary job share, if you like. They could pair up in Commons votes too.

    It could work you know.

    I’m just waiting for Chris to predict that Man U are going to win 39 of their remaining 37 Premiership games!

    :-)

  40. Pensions?
    It may well be that the considerations you mention have an impact on the very young under 18 voters but others may think that if things look bad, they will go to England.

  41. Pensions poll
    It is worth noting that the poll is for the Sunday Post, the key news medium for older voters in Scotland. imo

  42. CROSSBAT.
    Pax vobiscum to you.

    MUFC is another red tribe in trouble. It all goes in cycles.

    R and D. Thank you for your prediction.

  43. Nothing really happening poll wise as expected as the summer draws to a close.

    Hopefully the conference season will see that focusing of minds that I was talking about. The worry is that as the election nears that UKIP once again become the focus – the BBC know exactly what they are doing here – and it allows EM to blindside the election.

  44. The poll on pensions – worth pointing out actually an improvement for Yes, in the oldest age group, on both the previous Survation and latest YouGov. Over a period of around a week.

    I suppose if I was a parody headline writer I could write ‘Support for No slumps amongst pensioners despite pension fear mongering’

  45. So from the sun wot won it in 92 we might get the BBC lost it for us in 2015??

    In all seriousness I think to suggest the BBC will big up the UKIP and distort the GE after not only NI but most of the right wing press have banged on about Europe for over 2 decades is a touch hypocritical.