Lord Ashcroft has today published a new poll of Uxbridge & South Ruislip, a generally unspectacular and unnotable safe Conservative seat in West London. It shows voting intentions of CON 42%(-6), LAB 28%(+5), LDEM 6%(-14), UKIP 19%(+16), what would be an unsurprising Conservative hold.

The reason for the poll is – of course – the speculation that Boris Johnson might or might not apply for the Conservative nomination following John Randall’s decision to step down at the next election. Lord Ashcroft also asked how people would vote if Boris Johnson was the Conservative candidate, which unsurprisingly showed a popular and well-known candidate would give the party a boost.

The poll also included a question on what Uxbridge voters thought about Boris being MP at the same time as being mayor. The result was split right down the middle – 50% thought it was fine for Boris to do both for a year, 50% thought they weren’t compatible and Boris should wait until 2016 or resign as mayor if he wanted to be an MP. Amongst Conservative supporters in Uxbridge they were more accomodating – 63% thought Boris could do both for a year.


90 Responses to “Ashcroft poll of Uxbridge & South Ruislip”

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  1. ALEC

    The biter bit! (with apologies to Suarez) :-)

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  2. Oh my Lord! The Hasting Chronicle has just tweeted – “Normans Landing – Harold to head south”

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  3. @MissGlrnghis

    The oddest thing is that it is Blair MacDougal leader of Better Together tweeting around these out of date polls. He is re-tweeting SNP tweets from a year ago. No idea why he is doing it but he has confused a lot of people. I even texted my Mum who is an avid Yes to tell her, then had to text again to say it’s Blair’s joke.

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  4. Alec

    Now you are being silly. The Hastings Chronicle wasn’t founded till 1087!

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  5. BillyBob – posting after sharing 2 bottles of wine with my partner so forgive but I got lost reading yours.

    When polls have been taken about Ed he receives relatively strong numbers from 2010 LDs now supporting Labour so called Red Dems.

    I do wonder of there is an element of self-justification going on; in that having decided to switch from LD to Lab affirmation is important and a positive view of ED accordingly.
    Am no psychologist though.

    Of course Ed is a shift to the left which may be where Red Dems thought the LDs where?

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  6. Paul A,
    Well said.
    By the way Murray beaten in straight sets by Federer in Cincinnati.Just saying.

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  7. Couper

    The reason the increasingly silly Macdougal is spending his Saturday evening tweeting old polls is that the info is not one but two new polls tomorrow are showing a swing to YES.

    Life is becoming more interesting and difficult for poor old Blair.

    Should make the betting markets of some interest.

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  8. @Jim Jam

    Let’s hope Labour does indeed hold the red-dems (as opposed to red>purple/green-dems).

    Your good health.

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  9. “Just saying.”

    Why do people write this?

    They never used to.

    [ Just askin' ]

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  10. @L Hamilton – that does sound interesting. Have you got the numbers/source, and if you’ve got the panelbase one before the midnight embargo time, well done.

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  11. This from David Davis today:

    Don’t underestimate Ed Miliband, David Davis warns Tories
    August 16, 2014 4:18 pm

    David Davis has sent out a warning to his Conservative colleagues to underestimate Labour leader Ed Miliband at their peril. The Tory backbencher, who was beaten to the leadership in 2005 by David Cameron, told the Hull Daily Mail that just because “the media don’t like him” doesn’t mean Miliband won’t end up prime minister next year.

    “The media don’t like him and that translates into people picking up the same attitude. But I’m not as disparaging about Miliband as some. The way to think of this is not to compare him with Cameron; Cameron clearly fills the job well – he sounds like a Prime Minister, he looks like a Prime Minister. He’s an asset.

    “The comparison I make is not with Cameron, but with Brown. Who is a better leader for the Labour Party, Miliband or Brown?

    “I think Miliband is better than Brown, so we should be a bit wary of just relying on Miliband simply not being good enough.”

    David even compares Miliband to Margaret Thatcher, which is just about the highest praise you can get from a Tory MP:

    “I’m old enough to remember that when Margaret Thatcher was leader of the opposition she wasn’t very well regarded either – not at all.”

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  12. @Couper Yes. I’m sort of wondering – I hope this isn’t partisan – if the reason the RTs of old polls are going on is to muddy the google trail for any casual observers who try to google for the latest results.

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  13. Just seen an image of the front page of tomorrow’s Scotland on Sunday.

    This time I double-checked the date, and confirmed it by the photo of Eilidh Child winning Gold in the 400 metres hurdles at the European Championships!

    Headline – [ICM] “Poll: Yes vote advances despite currency fears”.

    The details are, of course, in the inside pages.

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  14. Good Evening All.

    The PM has made an important statement about Iraq; seems as if he is pointing to some sort of military action. This will have political implications for the UK in terms of voting intentions, I think.

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  15. I have to say that I find stories like this extremely depressing – http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/westminster-will-take-revenge-on-scots-after-no-1-3510329

    Out and out fear based campaigning, the kind of which the BT campaign is often accused of.

    It’s highly likely Scotland will face cuts in the years ahead if it stays within the union, as will every other part of the union. It’s also highly likely Scotland will face cuts in the years ahead if it votes Yes.

    What I find difficult to comprehend are the people saying Westminster wants ‘revenge’. That’s incomprehensible tosh, from otherwise intelligent people.

    This referendum appears to be affecting sane people’s abilities to think rationally.

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  16. Alec

    And from a retired Episcopalian clergyman, who has long been a campaigner for devolution as opposed to independence, too!

    Just imagine what you might have said if it was someone from the Yes campaign, or one of its supporting parties!

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  17. @CL1945 – not too sure what you think the PM said, nor how you think this will affect polls.

    It’s an article in a paper, and seems to be a well jumbled collection of more or less random statements. The MoD is briefing that this doesn’t signal an escalation of UK military actions, and are pointing out that we didn’t join the US in air strikes previously, so it’s difficult to discern any change of policy direction.

    Cameron’s biggest statement seems to be that people flying the ISIS flags in the UK will be arrested – but in this country, PM’s don’t decide who gets arrested – we have laws and due process etc, so I found that a bit odd.

    He has informed us that ISIS could be a direct threat to us here in the UK. I’m wondering whether that will be in more or less than 45 minutes – I understand these things matter to some people.

    Forgive me if I sound a tad facetious. If this is an important statement that is preparing the nation for something, it’s not a very good one, as I’ve no idea what he is preparing us for. I’ve also heard all this before. And look how secure that left us.

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  18. ALEC,
    Agreed.
    It is on the BBC news web site.

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  19. First rising YES poll confirmed in Scotland on Sunday.

    It seems that there is another even better poll for YES in the Sunday Herald and perhaps a third in The Sunday Sun. although this is not confirmed.

    All show a swing to YES.

    Regardless of your view it is great to see the increasingly arrogant NO camapigners brought down with a bump.

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  20. Confused about Ashcroft choosing to poll this seat.

    Whatever you think about his role in the 2010 election (which by and large would be a political opinion), you can’t deny that his tendency was to put resources into places which might make a difference. His constituency polling up until now has reflected a similar trend, focussing on places which could realistically change hands.

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  21. @Oldnat – indeed. I find it unfathomable that someone who was at the heart of the process of Westminster devolving power to Scotland can talk of Westminster wanting revenge for Scotland voting to stay linked to Westminster.

    Logically, it’s utterly barking. If Westminster was minded to seek revenge, it would be after Scotland stuck two fingers up and said Yes on September 18th? Not once Scots decided to stay loyal to the union. But I suppose he also believes in a beardy bloke sitting on a cloud somewhere up there, so perhaps I should make allowances.

    This is in line with much of the Yes campaign though. Last week we had AS and NS stating that a No vote would lead to cuts in disability payments and a privatised health service. And they still manage to keep a straight face when they accuse BT of scaremongering.

    Their entire campaign is based on telling people how bad life in the union will be.

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  22. L Hamilton

    “Regardless of your view”? I doubt that very much! :-)

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  23. Alec

    I think it would be fair to describe your assessment of the Yes campaign as being your personal view.

    As such, I wholly defend your right to have such – just as I defend Kenyon Wright’s right to believe in a God. (though if you imagine many Episcopalians believe “in a beardy bloke sitting on a cloud somewhere up there”, you may be a little wide of the mark.)

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  24. When is the first date that postal votes for the Scottish Independence referendum can be sent in / accepted?

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  25. Who is this “Westminster” that will take revenge on Scotland after the referendum? It is the Conservatives/LibDem alliance until May and then Labour or Conservatives with or without LibDems after May.

    Each of those parties, and in particular Labour, will want to win seats in Scotland at the next election and afterwards in the Scottish Parliament, irrespective of the result of the referendum. How could they be anything but nice to Scotland after the referendum? That is why I think that in the unlikely event of a Yes vote even the Conservatives would want Scotland to be happy with the deal it was given on separation – including a mutually beneficial currency arrangement.

    If any party was nasty to Scotland it would seriously damage it in that country in the long term.

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  26. MissGlenghis

    As soon as people get the ballot paper, they can send it in. Changes to postal/proxy voting in the UK (no ideas what they are) only come into force in Scotland after the referendum.

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  27. @Oldnat – jolly nice of you to defend my right to have a personal view. Don’t know what I’d do without you.

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  28. As always, front pages are designed to sell papers!

    However, the front page of the Sunday Herald has the banner –

    “New poll shows risk to NHS puts women’s vote for Yes at 52% : Support for Independence at 48%.”

    How that relates to the detailed polling figures, we’ll need to wait and see.

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  29. Alec

    iIm always pleased to support the rights of minorities! :-)

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  30. In terms of how campaigns respond to polling, these Panelbase & ICM polls have been fascinating.

    Both campaigns knew the results before the embargoes, so could plan how they wanted to spin the results.

    Blair McDougall’s post-embargo tweet is interesting (presumably his earlier tweets repeating old stuff were part of some plan or other too).

    “No up in ICM poll for SoS & undecideds overwhelmingly leaning No”

    Since Yes also seems to be up with ICM, and No as well, presumably the undecideds who were Yes leaning have gone definitely Yes, while the remaining undecideds are largely leaning NOs, who don’t feel convinced yet.

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  31. Oldnat

    I would say that Blair Mac is showing all the strange signs of a man starting to panic because what he thought was assured and certain is now looking very shaky – also saw him on tele from Inverness the other night – No should keep him off.

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  32. L Hamilton

    Mmm You may be as partisan as Alec! I also support your right to have those views.

    I’m sure Blair McDougall’s views reflect the campaign he supports, and its supporters views.

    The only thing of interest in these last few weeks seems to be which of the main campaign points (currently currency & NHS) resonate best with the undecideds.

    Obviously, those committed to one side or another will find their preferred campaign’s arguments most persuasive.

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  33. oldnat

    now have sunday herald. It is a Panelbase poll and it is 52-48 – yes up 2, no down 2.

    the reason that Balir Mac was engaged in weird tweeting is that he was trying to say we had seen this all before. The problem he has is that a swing of two per cent in four weeks is very possible for YES.

    The ICM came along also showing a swing to YES hence his later attempt to pretend that it wasn’t really.

    This is pretty rubbish spinning – not even compent-and the sign of someone finding it difficult to handle the pressure.

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  34. L Hamilton

    What are the figures including undecideds?

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  35. Scotland on Sunday article now live.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/yes-vote-advancing-despite-plan-b-concerns-poll-1-3511982

    For those not au fait with the Scottish press, SoS is a No supporting paper, Sunday herald the only Yes supporting one.

    Assume both will have picked out the best bits for their side in their stories!

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  36. Alec

    What I find difficult to comprehend are the people saying Westminster wants ‘revenge’. That’s incomprehensible tosh, from otherwise intelligent people

    But you’ve said yourself that there’s no reason why rUK should do anything to be helpful to Scotland after a Yes vote with regard to the currency or the situation with regard to the EU. But in that case why should they be any nicer once they win with a No vote?

    I’ve pointed before to this problem that the No campaign has with the two rival Project Fears. There’s a real asymmetry – most terrible things threatened following a Yes vote will only happen if the people advocating No actually cause them to happen. It’s a bit like an abusive husband saying “If you leave me, I’ll slash your face”. Even if it works in the short term, it doesn’t forecast a long happy marriage.

    But when the Yes side points to dire consequences of staying in, they will also be caused by the No advocates. So the more the No side play hardball, the more they undermine their own case and shore up the Yes side.

    It makes me wonder whether Darling was wise to concentrate so much on the currency, even though it showed up the SNP’s confused position. It reinforced the image of Westminster as the bad guy. We saw a similar problem the last time it was raised. The position that emerged of “If we can’t share the currency, we won’t share the debt” obviously appealed to some sectors of public opinion (I’m not discussing the reality here, just how some people saw it).

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  37. My hypothesis (at 11:36) seems to have some support from the polling detail (bracketed changes are from previous poll). Hattip Screaming Eagles.

    ICM – Yes 38 (+4) No 47 (+2) DK 14 (-7) : Undecideds more likely to vote No by a ratio of 2:1.

    Panelbase – Yes 42 (+1) No 46 (-2) DK 12 (+1)

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  38. @ Roger Mexico

    But in that case why should they be any nicer once they win with a No vote?
    —————
    Because Scotland sends 59 MPs to Westminster; I rather believe that sending none (i.e. being a ‘foreign’ country) would make the UK parliament a tad less interested in being ‘nice’ to the Scottish electorate.

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  39. New thread.

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