The monthly Ipsos MORI political monitor has topline voting intention figures of CON 33%(+1), LAB 33%(-2), LDEM 7%(+1), UKIP 13%(-1), GRN 7%. Labour and the Conservatives are equal on 33, the first MORI poll since last November not to show a Labour lead. All the usual caveats apply – it’s just one poll, so in isolation is not any more meaningful than the ICM poll earlier this week showing a seven point Labour lead, it’s the wider trend that counts. Full tabs are here.

There’s a slight methodological tweak in this month’s poll – for the first time MORI conducted a proportion (20%) of the interviews via mobile phone. Past testing by MORI over the last five months suggests this doesn’t actually make any difference to the final figures, but it avoids a potential future risk.

MORI also had a batch of “how would you vote if X was leader” questions, to which I’ll add my normal note of caution. People are rubbish at answering hypothetical questions at the best of times, and here we are expecting people to say how they’d vote with X as party leader when they don’t know what direction X would set for the party, what their policies and priorities would be, how the media would react to them in the reality of leadership and so on.

Asked how they would vote with Boris as Conservative leader, there would be a five point Conservative lead, with Theresa May as leader there would be a 4 point Labour lead, with George Osborne as leader a 9 point Labour lead. Two extra caveats – there wasn’t a control question asking about current leaders, and these figures are not filtered by likelihood to vote in the way MORI’s main question is. The May v Osborne v Johnson questions are all exactly comparable, though Boris is undoubtedly flattered by being the best known, but some of the difference between this and the standard voting intention will be down to the effect of mentioning Miliband & Clegg in the question. As ever, hypothetical leadership questions are a bit of fun, they are unlikely to have any real predictive ability, so please don’t read too much into them.

153 Responses to “Ipsos-MORI/Standard – CON 33, LAB 33, LD 7, UKIP 13, GRN 7”

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  1. “Some good news for the Government. Oil prices have dropped over the last couple of weeks. Brent Crude was around $115 per barrel and is now c$105.”


    Woohoo. That means they can up the fuel escalator thingy…

  2. @ CROSSBAT11 – “You really are a bit of a plonker, aren’t you? I presume your merry band of men call themselves “Labour Activists working for a Tory victory.”
    I’m afraid I just can’t take either you or your antique psephological model seriously at all.”

    LOL. Fair enough. You will be around next May, won’t you (or will you be doing a “disappearing act”?)

  3. This is clearly just a one off shock poll, the Labour lead in my opinion is still quite substantial, and until the Tories become less dis-likable I feel it will remain that way.

    The current issue Labour is facing is the continued drumming from the conservatives that the economy is looking good. Labour reply with the same old cost of living. If Labour had handled the last general election a little better, they wouldn’t even have to be worried about the Tory economy jargon. In fact, they could have won.

    The UK economy was no where near as bad as the Conservatives told the general public, and I think most people are actually aware of that. Out of the G8 we had the best economy and a chance for it to continue to grow. Labour however, did not use these numbers to support there power bid and have allowed the Conservatives to run away with the economy. Brown’s incompetence is still around today. It’s far far too late however for Miliband to say anything about the economy, despite the fact he would probably be right.

    We have got a stagnant economy, not a failing economy. Any signs of slight improvement the conservatives can claim to be fixing things, despite the fact most improvements are set to level out eventually and subside. An example is house prices, which are conveniently set to lower around election time and increase again by 2016. That will convince a lot of the more… less aware masses who will vote that Tory is better for them.

    Despite that, I do predict Labour to gain more seats in the general election. At a stretch more votes as well. The NHS talk, cost of living, taxing of the rich, gap between rich and poor and disconnection between the government and the people is working still. Labour have found what works and Ed Miliband is doing an excellent job in keeping at it.

    Avoiding UKIP and leaving this as a UKIP-Conservative Europe battle is very intelligent, especially with Labours obvious pro-europe ideal. Because the Conservatives are still promising a referendum that never looks like coming.

    My conclusion to this poorly wrote essay: Labour look far more likely to win the election.

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